Waiver-Wire-a-Week-Ahead Advice for Fantasy Football Weeks 11 & 12 based on Machine Learning

Fantasy Outliers’ takes on fantasy football rostering decisions in PPR and Standard scoring leagues for the upcoming week through the rest of the season for the NFL 2019 season

To dig into our full projections for PPR, Standard, and Half-PPR leagues and the rest of our projections for the 2019 NFL season, go to our product page on gumroad.com. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Our Waiver Wire Opportunity metric crosses Next-4-Week point projections against percent ownership in ESPN leagues, and normalizes within position.

We’ve found this metric to be helpful last year. Offhand, we predicted the New Orleans Saints defense would go on a tear weeks ahead of when the analysts started mentioning it (i.e. too late). This season, we predicted Jameis Winston would turn his season around before he did. While many people have already had their main waiver wire selections this week, a lot of these players may still be available — or simply may be folks to keep an eye on going forward.

These selections aren’t necessarily ‘must pickups’, but rather, players who have an imbalance in Next-4-Week projections relative to percent ownership — even if they are highly owned or have relatively low point projections. So use your best judgment.

Note that standard scoring uses ESPN standard scoring and PPR uses Draft Kings scoring.

If you’re looking for our weekly rankings, go here instead.

Quarterback — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• We were onto Josh Allen and Jameis Winston before and MathBox is expecting that to continue with high 80's projected points in the next 4 weeks for each. Check if they’re available.

Weeks 11 & 12 Quarterback Waiver Wire Opportunity (unedited), based on Machine Learning

Running Back — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• MathBox was appropriately high on Kareem Hunt going into last week, and remains high on him
• Miles Sanders is projected at low RB2 area, even when going against the Patriots stellar defense this week

Weeks 11 & 12 raw, unedited RB waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Wide Receiver — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• Will Fuller is only owned in 62% of ESPN PPR leagues. Anybody who can put up more than 50 points in one week is worth a stash, even despite his injury status

Weeks 11 & 12 raw, unedited WR waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Tight End — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• MathBox has been high on Eric Ebron recently. With 12 targets in his last game and 51% ownership, he’s worth a stash

Weeks 11 & 12 raw, unedited TE waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Defense/Special Teams — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• Coming soon

Kicker — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• Daniel Carlson for the Oakland Raiders is my boy! He’s going against a porous Bengals defense.

Week 11 & 12 Kicker Waiver Wire Opportunity (unedited), based on Machine Learning

If you’re looking for our weekly rankings and other products, go here instead. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Performance Analysis

• Can machine learning help improve your fantasy football draft — Comparison of Fantasy Outliers’ yearly models’ 2017 fantasy football draft performance versus ESPN and Expert Consensus Rankings
• How Artificial Intelligence (AI) beat ESPN in Fantasy Football — Summary of results of Fantasy Outliers’ weekly predictive models vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL regular season
• We Tied Vegas in Our First Attempt at Predicting NFL Game Winners Using Machine Learning — How Raw, Unedited Machine Learning Models With Information Known Early in the Week Tied Final Vegas Game Winner Projections and the Spread
• Hey everyone, we beat ESPN — Part 1. Background and Methodology — Comparison of fantasy football weekly model performance of Fantasy Outliers vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL season for Standard and PPR scoring formats
• Hey everyone, we beat ESPN — Part 2. Results — Comparison of fantasy football weekly model performance of Fantasy Outliers vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL season for Standard and PPR scoring formats

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To dig into our full projections for PPR, Standard, and Half-PPR leagues and the rest of our projections for the 2019 NFL season, go to our product page on gumroad.com.