Waiver-Wire-a-Week-Ahead Advice for Fantasy Football Weeks 9 & 10 based on Machine Learning

Fantasy Outliers’ takes on fantasy football rostering decisions in PPR and Standard scoring leagues for the upcoming week through the rest of the season for the NFL 2019 season

To dig into our full projections for PPR, Standard, and Half-PPR leagues and the rest of our projections for the 2019 NFL season, go to our product page on gumroad.com. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Our Waiver Wire Opportunity metric crosses Next-4-Week point projections against percent ownership in ESPN leagues, and normalizes within position.

We’ve found this metric to be helpful last year. Offhand, we predicted the New Orleans Saints defense would go on a tear weeks ahead of when the analysts started mentioning it (i.e. too late). This season, we predicted Jameis Winston would turn his season around before he did. While many people have already had their main waiver wire selections this week, a lot of these players may still be available — or simply may be folks to keep an eye on going forward.

These selections aren’t necessarily ‘must pickups’, but rather, players who have an imbalance in Next-4-Week projections relative to percent ownership — even if they are highly owned or have relatively low point projections. So use your best judgment.

Note that standard scoring uses ESPN standard scoring and PPR uses Draft Kings scoring.

If you’re looking for our weekly rankings, go here instead.

Quarterback — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• Jimmy Garoppolo is projected at 77 points in the next 4 weeks. He has three upcoming home games and some good matchups (Arizona, Seattle, Arizona, and Green Bay ranked at 32, 23, 32, and 8 toughest fantasy match-ups for QB so far this year)
• Ryan Fitzpatrick has a home game this week against an average QB match-up against the New York Jets
• Check your league(s) for Josh Allen, Jameis Winston, and Matthew Stafford, respectively (all owned in 80–90% of leagues)

Weeks 9 and 10 Quarterback Waiver Wire Opportunity (unedited), based on Machine Learning

Running Back — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• Jaylen Samuels could be a good pickups at 28% ownership, especially with James Connors recent injury status.

Weeks 9 and 10 raw, unedited RB waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Wide Receiver — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• Danny Amendola could be a good pickup at only 20% ownership and ~14 projected points in the next two weeks, plus a good matchup this week against the Oakland Raiders

Weeks 9 and 10 raw, unedited WR waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Tight End — Waiver Wire Possibilities in Standard and PPR based on Machine Learning

• MathBox loves the Indianapolis Colts tight ends Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron more than you do. Conventional wisdom says 2 TEs and Andrew Luck’s retirement = stay away. MathBox sees an opportunity.

Weeks 9 and 10 raw, unedited TE waiver wire opportunity for Standard (left) and PPR (right) scoring, based on machine learning

Defense/Special Teams — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• Coming soon

Kicker — Streamers and Waiver Wire Possibilities based on Machine Learning

• I love this section. Get some sneaky points, ya’ll!

Week 9 and 10 Kicker Waiver Wire Opportunity (unedited), based on Machine Learning

If you’re looking for our weekly rankings and other products, go here instead. For daily updates, follow us on twitter.

Performance Analysis

• Can machine learning help improve your fantasy football draft — Comparison of Fantasy Outliers’ yearly models’ 2017 fantasy football draft performance versus ESPN and Expert Consensus Rankings
• How Artificial Intelligence (AI) beat ESPN in Fantasy Football — Summary of results of Fantasy Outliers’ weekly predictive models vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL regular season
• We Tied Vegas in Our First Attempt at Predicting NFL Game Winners Using Machine Learning — How Raw, Unedited Machine Learning Models With Information Known Early in the Week Tied Final Vegas Game Winner Projections and the Spread
• Hey everyone, we beat ESPN — Part 1. Background and Methodology — Comparison of fantasy football weekly model performance of Fantasy Outliers vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL season for Standard and PPR scoring formats
• Hey everyone, we beat ESPN — Part 2. Results — Comparison of fantasy football weekly model performance of Fantasy Outliers vs. ESPN during Weeks 6–16 of the 2017 NFL season for Standard and PPR scoring formats

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To dig into our full projections for PPR, Standard, and Half-PPR leagues and the rest of our projections for the 2019 NFL season, go to our product page on gumroad.com.