Week 11 waiver wire reactions

Our MathBox™-centric assessment of this week’s trendiest waiver adds based on our Value Over Replacement metric.

Listen to our Fantasy Outliers Week 11 Waiver Wire Podcast on iTunes or streaming

With just three more weeks of the regular fantasy football season, we enter Week 11 and into another edition of waiver wire reactions. Usually by this time of the season these articles are just sad stories of “don’t pick up this guy who had an unusually productive week,” but we have a few players worth your time. So without further ado…

Note: Listed rankings and insights are based on MathBox’s preliminary Week 11 rankings from the information available going into Week 10. Every week, MathBox makes projections through Week 17. Although we’ll have updated Week 11 projections coming out this Thursday, we wanted to post waiver wire suggestions before those new projections were available so you would have time to make moves in your league.

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C.J. Beathard, San Francisco

Beathard had his best fantasy performance of his young career, throwing for 288 yards, two scores and adding another on the ground. Although it seems like he’s on an upward trajectory for a team that’s passing more than anyone, but there’s a couple things. One, the Niners are on bye next week. Two, despite what coach Kyle Shanahan says, you have to believe there’s a good chance Jimmy Garoppolo could be making his way onto the field in Week 12. MathBox preliminary projections aren’t in tune with this situation, but the only thing we can really do is wait and see before taking any action.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

As Melvin Gordon is typically able to do as the Chargers’ top option, Ekeler supplemented a season-high 10 carries and 42 yards on the ground with five catches for 77 yards and two scores on Sunday. Although it’s not terribly uncommon for the rookie to get involved in the passing game, those are numbers that aren’t sustainable for the clear backup in this backfield. He had a crucial fumble in the last two minutes as the Chargers were trying to run out the clock with the lead (which they blew), so that doesn’t bode well for an increased role. MathBox has Ekeler projected outside the top 50 in Week 11, which is where he ranks in scoring this season.

Dion Lewis/Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots

Yes, yes, yes. The dreaded New England backfield. The whole squad had a very solid day with the three main guys finding the end zone. Lewis led the pack with 55 yards on 14 carries to go with a rushing touchdown and a kickoff return score as well. Burkhead wasn’t too far behind with 36 yards on 10 carries, and then three receptions for 27 yards and a touchdown. Mike Gillislee was a healthy scratch, making James White the only other notable member of the carousel.

In PPR for Week 11, MathBox ranks White at No. 11 for running backs, Lewis No. 18, Gillislee No. 26 and Burkhead No. 33. It seems like Gillislee has worked his way out of the lineup at this point, so one might guess Burkhead sees those opportunities come his way, giving him a higher ranking. For Lewis and Burkhead in the waiver wire discussion, Lewis is a safe bet for more touches and deserves the higher projection. However, Burkhead’s role in the passing game gives him some good upside too, especially as he gets more games under his belt after being out for a while with an injury.

Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars

Same advice as last week for Lee, who had another touchdown in Week 10. He’s up to 60-percent ownership and MathBox has him projected around No. 30, but his upside and availability this late in the season is rare at this juncture of the season. If you are at all in need of WR help, get him, especially in PPR.

Chester Rogers, Indianapolis Colts

Yet another essentially unowned player with a team-leading performance, Rogers hauled in all six targets for 104 yards and a touchdown as the Colts narrowly lost to the Steelers, 20–17. It was only Rogers’ fourth game of the season, but he hadn’t topped two catches for 21 yards prior to Sunday. Rogers it typically a fifth-plus receiving option for an Indianapolis offense that isn’t exactly robust. MathBox doesn’t even have him in the Week 11 projections, so unfortunately no diamond in the rough here.

Brandon LaFell, Cincinnati Bengals

LaFell had one of his better days in a Bengals uniform, posting six catches for 95 yards and a score. Despite the fact that John Ross and Tyler Boyd, the young guns of Cincinnati’s receiving core, can barely get on the field, LaFell still hasn’t been able to take that next step forward with solid No. 2 numbers. MathBox projects LaFell in the mid-sixties in both formats, and the Fantasy Outlier humans agree. Although the passing game looked better than it has in a while, the Bengals nor LaFell are trustworthy enough for spot starts.

Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins

After being out in Week 9 with a hamstring issue, Crowder had four-catch, 76-yard performance in Week 10. He has yet to score a touchdown this year, but his targets have been way up as of late. He’s projected ranked in the low-forties in both formats, but he’s definitely one of the best receiver options on the waiver wire at this point in the season, owned in about 50 percent of leagues. If you need help in a PPR league, we recommend Crowder.

Jermaine Gresham, Arizona Cardinals

After being one of umpteen tight ends to do something, but not really anything to help you in fantasy, Gresham has had a couple solid weeks in a row with his first two touchdowns of the season. MathBox is pretty low on Gresham, projected in the mid-twenties in both formats in Week 11. Although the touchdowns are better than nothing, we don’t have enough information to say that Drew Stanton under center really does anything extra for Gresham. There are better options on the market for tight end.

Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills

We typically discuss players who had outlier weeks in these articles, especially this late in the season, but we wanted to point out Clay, who returned quietly from injury in Week 10. MathBox has Clay projected as the No. 10 tight end in standard format this week and he’s owned in less than 50 percent of leagues. He’s one of, if not, their best receiving options in Buffalo, especially in the red zone. Although Tyrod Taylor was benched late in the Bills’ blowout by the hands of New Orleans, he’s confirmed as the starter this week, so that’s not a concern.

That’s it for this week. We’d love to hear what you think about our approach to the waiver wire — and how you think it can be improved.

We’re a team at Fantasy Outliers. Chris Seal contributed to these models.

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