Week 14 waiver wire reactions

Our MathBox™-centric assessment of this week’s trendiest waiver adds based on our Value Over Replacement metric.

Three more weeks of fantasy football — you’re either trying to make that last playoff push or already know your matchups. By now, teams are usually set and it’s just praying that everyone on your starting roster shows up ready to play. We do have a few new developments on the waiver wire, but also a lot of familiar names.

Note: Listed rankings and insights are based on MathBox’s preliminary Week 14 rankings from the information available going into Week 13. Every week, MathBox makes projections through Week 17. Although we’ll have updated Week 14 projections coming out this Thursday, we wanted to post waiver wire suggestions before those new projections were available so you would have time to make moves in your league.

Email us at podcast@fantasyoutliers.com to receive free access to our weekly projections for the rest of the season

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So much for the “might wanna pass” bit we did last week in this article. Bortles passed for a season-high 309 yards with two touchdowns. Granted it was against Indianapolis, but it was certainly not what we were expecting. However, MathBox was expecting it, as he was the No. 3 projected QBs in Week 13. And guess what? He’s projected the second-best quarterback this week. Be damned that the Jags are playing the Seahawks! He’s also projected to have the second-most points of any QB through Week 16. He’s still only owned in 20 percent of leagues, so have him on your list of guys to check if you’re streaming.

Josh McCown, New York Jets

As a passer, McCown was good for a touchdown and 331 yards and no turnovers. That’s about 17 points in most leagues. The two rushing touchdowns on a season-high seven rushing attempts is what catapulted him to one of the best days in fantasy yet again. Although McCown’s had three rushing touchdowns before Week 13, this week was an outlier. Two games in a row of 300+ yards passing and an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his past five, McCown has proven to be a safe spot start, if not a roster spot through the rest of the year.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

I believe this is Joe Flacco’s first appearance on this article because, well, this was the first time this season Flacco’s topped 14 points. And he had 18 points. Although the Ravens are on a three-game win streak, that still hasn’t proven beneficial for Flacco’s fantasy output, as he had nine points in each of those other wins. MathBox doesn’t think much about him against one of the toughest QB defenses in Pittsburgh, so just don’t bother.

Keynan Drake, Miami Dolphins

With Damien Williams out with a shoulder, Kenyan Drake posted 120 yards on 23 carries and added 21 yards on three receptions. It seems likely that Williams will miss at least another week, so Drake is an excellent pickup against New England this week.

Matt Forte, New York Jets

Forte was the recipient of McCown’s lone touchdown throw in Week 13 and had 58 yards on a season-high 15 carries. Not enough to make us think he’s a valid option in standard formats, but he’s projected No. 17 in PPR this week, so a decent flex option or even low-tier RB2 against Denver. He’s owned in about 57 percent of leagues.

Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay

Barber filled in more than adequately for the concussed Doug Martin, rushing for 102 yards and adding 41 receiving yards. We’ll have to wait and see about Martin’s status, but Barber might be worth an add if you can afford a spot. The Bucs play Detroit this week, which has been very kind to opposing backs.

Jermaine Kearse, New York Jets

Kearse had by far his best game of the season with 157 yards on nine receptions. He’s got two games in a row now of 100+ yards receiving. It’s tough to say whether this is a blip or not. It’s definitely a contrast to the rest of Kearse’s season. As well, big days for McCown don’t necessarily equate to big days for Kearse. But the targers could also signify a shift in their offense, which bodes well for Kearse. MathBox isn’t up to date enough with the new dynamics, so the low projection might not be telling.

Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins

Stills might be the quietest top-20 receiver ever, owned in less than 50 of leagues. He hauled in five passes for 98 yards and a a score – his second in three games. But Sunday was also just his fourth double-digit point offering of the season. Stills didn’t do much two weeks ago against New England, and MathBox has him projected at No. 25. He’s very boom or bus, so if you go with Stills, just understand the risk.

Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars

As Blake Bortles goes, so does Marqise Lee. Lee bounced back from a 13-yard outing in Week 12 to post 86 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. The good news is other than the Week 12 dud, Lee hasn’t had less than five receptions and 45 yards since Week 9. He also has all three of his touchdowns this season in that period. Unfortunately, he’s very touchdown-dependent if he’s going to make a sizable impact. If you are really in need of a flex, he is a decent option, but exhaust other options first.

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What a fall from grace we’ve seen from Cameron Brate. After being one of the top tight ends in the league, he had four weeks straight with only a reception each. This week he was targeted six times and hauled in two receptions, both for scores. The reality is that he got lucky that both of his receptions were for scores, otherwise, it’s same old, same old. He’s not getting as many snaps as O.J. Howard and is not a starter that’s going to help you. Hard pass.

Stephen Anderson, Houston Texans

Anderson, owned in like no percent of leagues, had a day – five catches, 79 yards and a touchdown. Most of that can be attributed to a few other Texans pass-catchers leaving the game. We’ll keep it short, it’s hard to see this happening again. Don’t bother with Anderson for now, either.

That’s it for this week. We’d love to hear what you think about our approach to the waiver wire — and how you think it can be improved.

Chris Seal contributed to these models. David Harbarger contributed player insight.

You can connect with us by: Listening to our podcast, reading our articles, following us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or emailing us at: podcast@fantasyoutliers.com.