Week 2 waiver wire reactions
MathBox™’s assessment of this week’s trendiest waiver adds based on our Value Over Replacement metric
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It’s that time again. The unlimited promise of your fantasy draft has given way to the overwhelming excitement of seeing your team out there in Week 1—which has given way to reality. Some of us did great. Some of us… not so much (maybe that’s just me?).
Win or lose, when the dust settles on Week 1 we all look one place first: the waiver wire. Especially if, like me, you’re looking at Mark Ingram in your flex spot and thinking… what have I done?
So here it is, Fantasy Outlier’s first waiver wire column of the 2017 season. While the names are ones you’re probably seeing at some other sites, we’ll be basing our assessments on the difference between how we ranked these players at the beginning of the season and how we think their new opportunities change their Average Weekly Value over replacement. We’ll also discuss the changes we made so you can decide if you agree or not.
If you want to take a look at our preseason draft predictions (which we’ll be basing this article off) please take a look here. For simplicity in the values, we’ll be evaluating everything as if we were making these pickups in a 12-team PPR league with four-point passing TD scoring.
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
So, we’re going to start out with a spicy one. Who likes QBs who break out in their early 30s?
While our preseason projections weren’t particularly kind to Alex Smith there is one thing to note about how we assessed him—we had him as QB#19 overall but we did have him at No. 5 in Points per Opportunity among QBs.
So, it follows that if he’s going to get a chance to throw a bit more—and he just might thanks to new friends Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill—he could rise in our projections overall. In fact, if we give Smith just four more Opportunities per Game he climbs to the same projected value as Derek Carr at just above replacement (0.16).
We don’t think this is a sure thing yet, but it might be worth a shot if you’re unhappy with who you have under center or are dedicated to streaming QBs this year.
New Projection:
0.14 Average Weekly Value (QB#10)
DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns
Mathbox™ is skeptical of rookies in general, but it’s worth noting that it’s VERY skeptical of Kizer especially when you look at the rest of the position. Kizer projects towards the bottom of QBs in Point per Opportunity at 0.27. He was only tracking slightly above that without the rushing TD he got on Sunday, so we’re not sure that there’s anything to be excited about yet. If you want to take a deep shot feel free to stash away, but Kizer’s value will almost certainly be attached to his rushing. And to be really good, there really needs to be a lot of it.
Kerwynn Williams & Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
So what happens when the clear No. 1 RB falls? Lucky for you we wrote a whole article about handcuffs that should give you a little perspective.
Enough with the theory, though—what about these two replacements? Any shot either of them steps in to grab a piece of the value Johnson should have given your team?
The short answer is no. We’ve seen Ellington before (2015 is calling—it wants its sleeper back) and while we haven’t seen Williams much before, it’s worth noting that he’s not new to the league either.
Still, that’s not as bad as it sounds. While both project near the bottom of runningbacks in Points per Opportunity the power of increased opportunities rears its head here.
We projected Johnson to have 24 Opportunities per Game. We originally projected both Williams and Ellington to have around 8 each. If we double their opportunities to 16 each we get two players right around RB#25. Clearly, it could be worse than that—and in fact probably will be.
But if you think either of these players get more than 16 Opportunities per Game go for it—the path to worthwhile fantasy starter is short from here.
Williams New Projection:
-4.56 Average Weekly Value (approx. RB#30)
Ellington New Projection:
-3.08 Average Weekly Value (approx. RB#25)
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
Full disclosure here—I’m a Bears fan and I thought that Cohen looked great Sunday. MathBox™ doesn’t watch the games, of course, and also doesn’t agree. In line with its rookie-hating ways, the algorithm actually assess Cohen very similarly to Kerwynn Williams above at 0.67 Points per Opportunity. Interestingly, this is already higher than MathBox’s assessment of Jordan Howard’s Points per Opportunity.
I’m going to go ahead and say that I think that Cohen’s PPO number’s a little low. I’m thinking he’ll be closer to the RB average of 0.8 PPO.
What I don’t think should change is the projected Opportunities per Game we’ve already predicted. We already have him at ~16, which is high for someone in a timeshare with a 2nd round pick—let’s face it, Jordan Howard isn’t going anywhere.
And so, even with the bump in PPO, Cohen will probably still be a -3.0 Average Weekly Value player—putting him right around RB #25. A solid RB3 or flex, basically, best case.
New Projection:
-3.00 Average Weekly Value (approx. RB#25)
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
I guess someone needs to get some points in Seattle, right? Well… not necessarily. Carson is another rookie and another player we predict to only get around 0.7 Points per Opportunity. Even if he doubles his projected eight Opportunities per Game—he had eight opportunities on Sunday, by the way—he’s only make it up to RB#36 territory. Again, a flex or RB3 if we’re lucky.
New Projection:
-4.2 Average Weekly Value (approx. RB#35)
Javorius Allen, Baltimore Ravens
With Danny Woodhead out (again) Allen looks to have a reasonable increase in workload—especially if his 21 rushing attempts on Sunday tell us anything. We had him projected at around 0.8 Opportunities per Game with a league average Points per Opportunity. If we more those opportunities up close to what he had on Sunday things start to get interesting.
If Allen were to consistently have 16 Opportunities per Game, we predict his Average Weekly Value would be -2.86. I know, I know—a negative number this big looks bad. Turns out that it’s not, especially for a flex or RB2.
I’m not 100% sold on Allen gaining that many opportunities, so temper your expectations a bit. But, if you’re hurting and at the end of your waiver list, the truth is that Allen might be a good sneaky player to stash away for a couple of weeks while you see where things go in Baltimore.
New Projection:
-2.86 Average Weekly Value (approx. RB#21)
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
Golladay had a stand out performance on Sunday catching two TDs from Matt Stafford on 7 targets. As another rookie with a strong debut, it’s tough to look at Mathbox’s assessment with a lot of confidence right off the bat. He’s projected at 1.47 Points per Opportunity (-0.10 vs WR overall). Which, again, doesn’t sound bad but actually places him at about 70th in PPO. I think it’s unlikely he’s really that far down, but I’m not quite ready to grab him if you need to plug him into your lineup immediately. If you have space on your bench and are looking for some upside, though, I think he’s worth grabbing for those upcoming bye weeks.
New Projection:
-5.01 Average Weekly Value (approx. WR#55. Think Tyler Lockett.)
Allen Hurns & Marquise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars
With Allen Robinson losing his ACL on his first play of the season, people have been looking towards Hurns and Lee as possible beneficiaries of all those lost targets.
Not so fast. Hurns and Lee both have significantly below average PPO for their positions (each around WR#80+ in PPO). If we up either of them to the same number of opportunities as Robinson was projected to receive we get two guys who sit right around WR#50 for the rest of the year.
All that plus Blake Bortles throwing them the ball. Still.
I’ll pass.
Hurns New Projection:
-4.25 Average Weekly Value (approx. WR#50. Think John Brown.)
Lee New Projection:
-3.85 Average Weekly Value (approx. WR#45. Think Mike Williams.)
Nelson Agholor, WR
It felt to me like Agholor finally had the game we’ve been waiting for for the last few years netting 86 yards and a TD on 8 targets last Sunday. I think he’s clearly the add of the week if he’s available in your league as he’s a potentially undervalued player on a team with a decent offense.
I don’t think he’ll be consistent, especially on a team with a young QB, but his projected 1.64 Points per Opportunity (+0.08 against WR) make me think his potential will scale nicely in games where he gets a lot of opportunities. Even if he gets an average or 8.5 Opportunities per Game (which is a small increase from our initial projection of seven opportunities) he’ll work his way into the top 30 at WR.
New Projection:
-2.78 Average Weekly Value (approx. WR#30. Think Mike Wallace.)
Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills
Clay has always been a decent streaming option at TE, but he got a pretty decent bump in targets this Sunday. If this turns out to be a trend (maybe as Tyrod Taylor looks for a familiar option among his mostly new passing options) it could move Clay up to a solidly startable TE.
We originally had Clay projected to receive 6 Opportunities per Game. If we adjust that up to 8 (which is how many opportunities he had Sunday) we moves up from TE#18 to TE#10.
New Projection:
-.17 Average Weekly Value (approx. TE#10.)
That’s it for this week. We’d love to hear what you think about our approach to the waiver wire—and how you think it can be improved.
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