Week 8 waiver wire reactions
Our MathBox™-centric assessment of this week’s trendiest waiver adds based on our Value Over Replacement metric.
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Welcome to Week 8, Fantasy Outliers readers. The waiver wire gets thinner and thinner, and although injury may dictate a lot of the moves you make at this point, we did want to put together some info on what’s going on in waivers. We’ll dive into a few notable players, and then have some quick hits with brief notes further down.
Note: Listed rankings and insights are based on MathBox’s preliminary Week 8 rankings from the information available going into Week 7. Every week, MathBox makes projections through Week 17. Although we’ll have updated Week 8 projections coming out this Thursday, we wanted to post waiver wire suggestions before those new projections were available so you would have time to make moves in your league.
Josh McCown, New York Jets
This is one of those moments where it’s even hard to consider the player if you watched the game. McCown’s late interception was crucial in the Jets’ collapse agains the Dolphins. BUT it was his only interception of the day, and he also had 209 yards and three touchdowns on what was overall a very good fantasy performance. After only throwing three touchdowns in his first five games, he’s thrown seven in the past three weeks. MathBox’s preliminary Week 8 projections have him as QB#21, but I think it might not be giving him enough credit. Especially recently, he’s got the upside of a QB1. Historically, he has the downside of an afterthought. Together, in my mind, this makes him a solid QB2 option if you’re in need. Two of his next three games (Atlanta, Tampa Bay) are reason for reserved optimism and he’s projected to score 48.6 points over the next 4 weeks.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
As he finds himself ranking second in some key receiving categories for the Rams, Kupp, the rookie out of Eastern Washington, has slowly been making his way onto some watch lists. He’s the No. 2 option behind Robert Woods, but ranks slightly higher in fantasy production thanks to his three touchdowns to Woods’ zilch. For readers who have been around for a bit, you know that MathBox’s yearly models had a dispassion for rookies, and Kupp was no exception. Although, to be fair, a third rounder out of a Big Sky program going to a 4–12 team didn’t sound too enticing two months ago. Mathbox had his opportunities per game just under five, and he’s currently averaging six targets.
Kupp is owned in about 40 percent of leagues right now, and with the Rams on bye in Week 8, he might become available if he isn’t already. He’s sitting in WR3 or flex value. He’ll log you some points each week and has decent upside.
Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins
Stills has had a couple solid outings in a row and did especially well when Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler this week, finishing with 85 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions. MathBox projects Stills in the top 50 for WR this week, and frankly, it should be higher with Moore under center. Moore might be the answer for an anemic offense, and Stills should benefit. Stills is widely available. Pick him up.
Ted Ginn Jr., New Orleans Saints
Ginn has also had a couple of good outings in a row, including 141 yards on seven catches this week. He saw an uptick in targets, but it was likely because of Willie Snead’s absence. MathBox has him as WR#36 this week in both formats, but those projections assume Snead is in. Keep an eye out on Snead’s status before picking up Ginn.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers
Goodwin had 80 yards on four catches against Dallas. He’s had decent outings two of the last three weeks, but he’s inconsistent and the volume just isn’t there. He’s outside of the top 50 in standard and PPR in MathBox for Week 8. Probably best to pass.
Deonte Thompson, Buffalo Bills
Signed just last week, Thompson had four catches for 107 yards. They have so few guys to catch the ball that he’s a potential flier. Keep your eyes on him.
Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings
Come on, Vikings. Just pick one already. Murray returned to his old form with 113 yards and a score. The good news is that Murray staves off McKinnon’s complete domination of touches. But not having the Week 8 data yet, MathBox still thinks McKinnon is the guy, and his points per opportunity is notably higher than Murray’s. If you have McKinnon, stick with him, but Week 8 will tell us a lot. Murray is owned in a lot of leagues, but if someone got impatient in your league after McKinnon’s breakout weeks he’s worth picking up again.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones had his biggest day of the year with Brett Hundley making his first start in place of Aaron Rodgers. Ty Montgomery owners must be terrified—and I think they should be. Jones is owned in around 65% of leagues right now. If you’re in one of those leagues where he’s available, grab him. The Packers are on a bye this week, but after this week’s performance he will be on everyone’s radar. His Week 9 MathBox rank is projected to be in the top 12 in both standard and PPR scoring, so be on the lookout.
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is one I think a lot of people are interested to hear about. The Fantasy Outliers staff certainly discussed. Howard had 98 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions in Week 7. Owned in less than 10 percent of leagues, that certainly caught some eyes. It gets complicated once you remember that the Bucs also have Cameron Brate, one of the best tight ends in fantasy.
Tampa Bay plays Carolina this week, who’s been favorable to TEs in the past few weeks, but it’s really hard to imagine there’s enough room for two high performances from tight ends in this offense. Mathbox projects Brate as TE#3 this week in standard, while not having Week 8 data yet, Howard sits at TE#24. Howard’s usage could possibly jump, but he’s only had more than one reception in two games this season. It’s likely best to leave this one alone.
Jacksonville Jaguars
If anyone drops the Jaguars in your league because they’re on a bye this week, pick them up and stash them. They’re the best defense in the league and they have a favorable schedule.
Detroit Lions
Same goes for the Lions. There’s a decent chance they were dropped after their only single-digit performance in Week 5, and then they were just on bye in Week 7. They’re the second-best defense and consistently get double digit points.
That’s it for this week. We’d love to hear what you think about our approach to the waiver wire — and how you think it can be improved.
Chris Seal and Jeremy Mobley contributed to these models. David Harbarger and Dave Seal contributed to the insight.
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