Week 9 wavier wire reactions

Our MathBox™-centric assessment of this week’s trendiest waiver adds based on our Value Over Replacement metric.

Week 8 blessed us with some gigantic offensive performances, and a few of our friends on the waiver wire participated. As usual, we’ll take a look at what they did, what MathBox thinks of their prospects going forward, and whether you should take or pass when making roster moves.

Note: Listed rankings and insights are based on MathBox’s preliminary Week 9 rankings from the information available going into Week 7. Every week, MathBox makes projections through Week 17. Although we’ll have updated Week 9 projections coming out this Thursday, we wanted to post waiver wire suggestions before those new projections were available so you would have time to make moves in your league.

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Eli Manning, New York Giants

So… it’s kind of slim pickings out there once again for QB streaming options this week. Of MathBox’s top 12 projected QBs for Week 9, Manning is the only one widely available on waiver wires. He’s had around 10 points most weeks this season, but he’s had a couple of games with that old Eli shine (20+ points at Philly and Tampa). His matchup against the Rams is a little scary, but I buy him as a decent/stable (eek) choice if you have to work the wire this week—although he’s not my favorite option.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

I’m actually a little more interested in the other QB in this matchup—Jared Goff. The Giants’ pass defense is a much better matchup than the reverse and although MathBox only has him at #18, he’s been better than Manning (fantasy-wise) all year. Goff even actually has multiple receivers that are healthy!

Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens

Alex Collins took advantage of his season-high 18 carries, rushing for 113 yards and adding 30 yards on two receptions in the 40–0 Thursday night walloping of the Miami Dolphins. The Ravens have typically leaned on Javorius Allen more, but Collins may have made things interesting with his performance. MathBox still likes Allen over Collins in Week 9 against the Titans, but we’ll see if Collins’ Week 8 outing has a positive affect on future usage. If you are really desperate for running back help, Collins generally gets points, so it would be worth a pickup in that sense.

DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders

Marshawn Lynch’s suspension may have left an opening that DeAndre Washington just rushed through. Washington has a good performance this week and is very lightly owned. While MathBox is down on him (and Lynch, for that matter at #60ish and #40ish respectively) going into Week 9, Washington could be worth a speculative add until the RB situation clears up in Oakland.

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of cloudy RB situations, let’s take a look at the Colts. While the news of Frank Gore’s demise has been exaggerated—a bit—Mack has been steadily gaining carries this season. This week he and Gore were just about equal in offensive snaps with a slight edge going to Mack. He managed to put in a top 15 performance with the workload. MathBox is somewhat skeptical about Mack going into the week (he ranks at RB#45) because of a tough matchup against Houston. While he might not be a start this week, he’s 100% worth rostering for the last third of the regular season.

Paul Richardson/Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

The wild Seattle-Houston shootout produced three of the top four wide receiver fantasy performances in PPR for Sunday’s slate, including Paul Richardson. The Seahawks receiver, who’s been featured on a previous Fantasy Outliers waiver article, had his biggest day of the year with 105 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions. Tyler Lockett wasn’t far behind with six receptions for 121 yards.

The numbers in this matchup were simply bloated, and they certainly go against the trends for both of these players. MathBox’s preliminary Week 9 projections in standard leagues prefer Lockett as WR#41, noting his opportunities advantage over Richardson, who is WR#53. MathBox also gives a very slight nod to Lockett over the next four weeks in total points. Saying that, Lockett hasn’t found the end zone yet this year. Richardson has five scores this season, including three in two games, He also has comparable yardage and receptions.

In regard to whether either of these Week 8 studs is a viable option for your team, we’re hesitant. Going against a Washington defense that isn’t kind to receivers, we’d only grab one of these guys if you’re in need of a spot start.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers

Juju Smith-Schuster has had quite the few weeks. His bike got stolen, found, teammate Martavis Bryant dissed him and also requested a trade… That’s a lot for a rookie. But he took advantage of Bryant sitting out after those comments, catching seven balls for 193 yards. My oh my.

Smith-Schuster has been a player in the Pittsburgh offense, but has really been touchdown dependent. Not only was Bryant out, but his breakout game also came at the expense of Antonio Brown. I wouldn’t expect that to be the norm. The Steelers are on a bye in Week 9, and Smith-Schuster ranks outside the top 50 in standard format for wide receivers in Week 10. If by chance Bryant actually is traded, Smith-Schuster’s value goes up.

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts

Jack Doyle has quietly had himself a decent season as one of the Colts’ only bright spots, but Sunday was anything but quiet. He had by far the biggest day for tight ends in the league with 12 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. The Cincinnati Bengals were doing a lot to make sure T.Y. Hilton didn’t get his, leaving a boatload of room in the middle for Doyle all day.

Doyle sits ranked 10/11 in standard/PPR for Week 9 according to MathBox, but more interestingly his four-week projection has him ranked 7/6, even though there’s a bye week in there. He’s only owned in about 40 percent of leagues. If you need help in the next few weeks, Doyle could be your guy. The Colts probably won’t have a shortage of garbage time where Doyle could thrive in soft coverage.

Detroit Lions D/ST

The Lions are available in just over 50% of leagues despite being 3rd in overall scoring this season. On top of that, they have a great schedule for the rest of the regular fantasy season:

• Wk 9 —at GB (20th)
• WK 10 — CLE (31st)
• WK 11—at CHI (30th)
• WK 12 — MIN (7th)
• WK 13 — BAL (27th)

The single exception as you can see above is against Minnesota in Week 12 and you can definitely find a fill in there if you’re afraid of the Vikings.

Los Angeles Rams D/ST

Remember what I said earlier about facing Eli Manning? While we think Manning could still be a good spot start if you’re desperate, we also think the Rams could be a good start if you’re looking for a streaming defense this week against an overall Giants defense that leaves a lot to be desired. We don’t recommend the Rams after this week, though—after the Giants they face much larger opponents in the Texans, the Vikings, and the Saints. We’d avoid after Week 9.

That’s it for this week. We’d love to hear what you think about our approach to the waiver wire — and how you think it can be improved.

We’re a team at Fantasy Outliers. Chris Seal and Jeremy Mobley contributed to these models, and Dave Seal and Dave Harbarger contributed to the insight.

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