Fanvest Fantasy — ‘Big Game’ Movers and Strategy

How to attack the Fanvest player markets for the big game

With the recent launch of Fanvest Wagering Exchange’s new player based markets, the roster construction opportunities are endless. With so many options available, navigating this new market can be a challenge but certainly worthwhile for anybody who enjoys fantasy football.

The Biggest Movers in the FWX Markets

Some interesting names on this list, and at first glance, it’s no surprise fanvestors flocked to Darrel Williams, who has carried the Chiefs backfield thus far through the playoffs. With two weeks between the conference title games and the championship, Williams faces increased downside as both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell are expected to play. While D-Will should hang onto his receiving role (a valuable one in the Chiefs offense), he is unlikely to either goalline work or double-digit rushing attempts.

Players like Tanner Hudson and LeSean McCoy both offer strong salary-relief, but carry even more risk than Darrel Williams, as either player could be declared inactive on championship Sunday. Granted, both players did play in the NFC title game (3 combined snaps), so the potential for a decent fantasy game still exists.

Beyond that, we are left with what I will call the ‘Big Four’ and ‘Playoff Lenny’. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady have all been dominant fantasy commodities this season, and fanvestors should prioritize getting as many shares of these four superstars as possible. Fournette is also intriguing given the massive usage he’s seen in the playoffs. During the regular season, Ronald Jones handled roughly 60% of snaps and rush attempts while the other 40% fell to Lenny. In the playoffs, Fournette seems to have the backfield almost all to himself, registering 48 rushes to Jones’ 23, playing at least 68% of the snaps in all three playoff games, and out-targeting Jones 17–1.

Learning From The Last Three Playoff Weekends

Each of the previous weeks has provided valuable insights into how fanvestors can attack the FWX player markets going forward.

With only one game this week, the player pool is much more condensed than fanvestors are used to. The minimal options mean we may have to dig a bit deeper than weeks past to identify the top values.

We know the Big Four. We know they will be the most popular players and we know they are a top priority, but what about the next tier down?

Given the crowded and relatively unknown usage of the KC backfield, a player like CEH carries much more risk than his similarly-priced counterparts. The Bucs WRs, in particular, seem to offer the most upside in this group outside of Leonard Fournette for a few reasons.

Tampa Bay loves attacking deep down the field. It’s something Bruce Arians has done his entire coaching career, and Tom Brady has shown surprising competence in a system that typically takes at least a full season for QBs to feel comfortable. All three of Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans should benefit from the upside of this downfield passing attack. With a high likelihood of playing from behind, Tampa Bay will likely be forced to throw deep early and often.

Just like previous weeks, the best value can often come from late-breaking injury news. Sammy Watkins hasn’t played at all in the 2020 postseason, but he’s finally healthy and should easily regain his #2 WR role, an extremely valuable one with Patrick Mahomes as his QB. Unlike Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson, Watkins actually runs rather shallow routes. As a result, he should see 5–7 targets but may find it difficult to exceed 50 yards given how close his targets tend to be to the line of scrimmage.

Championship Sunday Strategy

Like we’ve already discussed, focusing on star players and injury news can help fanvestors capture an edge prior to kickoff, but what else can users do to take down 1st place?

Just like standard DFS, stacking a pass-catcher with your lineup’s QB is a fantastic way to maximize that lineup’s ceiling. With the added element of a SuperFlex position that enables users to roster multiple QBs, the stacking possibilities are truly endless.

Another difficult decision users will be faced with is how many shares of a specific player to buy. The unfortunate reality is there is no ‘one size fits all’ strategy and what’s optimal will depend greatly on the specific week in question. Arguably the best advice that could be given is to use shares as a sort of confidence interval. If a user is very confident Tom Brady will be the highest scoring QB, it’s likely wise to roster 50 shares. Somewhat confident Leonard Fournette will be a top-3 RB? 10–20 shares may be the right choice.

Personally, I’ll be taking a special interest in players that are under 10% owned by the field. Why? The fewer competing lineups a player is on, the higher the chance that a strong fantasy performance will lead to a 1st place finish. If I roster an RB who’s only on 2% of teams and he ends up being the highest-scoring RB that day, I’ve effectively surpassed 98% of the field. Unlike traditional DFS, FWX makes ownership numbers public all throughout the week, so users can be acutely aware of how many competing rosters have a piece of their favorite player.

With so many options available what are you waiting for? It’s time to start fanvesting!

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