Fanvest’s W2 Weekly Preview

Fernando Murias

Published in

Fanvest Wagering Exchange, Inc.

7 min readSep 15, 2020

Welcome to Weekly! Beat the market through investing in winners.

Week 1 taught us that there are two key strategies to make the Top 50:

Reinvest earnings from winning teams
Buy shares of big underdogs, teams with a share price < $FBX 35

Luckily W2 is packed with games that present upset potential. Keep reading to find our favorites angles for the week.

Thursday Night Football

Get an early edge against the competition by winning the Thursday Night game

Game Breakdown — Thursday 8:20 ET: CIN $FBX 30.85 @ CLE $FBX 69.15

Fanvestors are able to reinvest earnings from winning teams, which raises the stakes for the Thursday Night game. This Thursday you have two choices:

Go Conservative — This price implies that CLE has a ~70% probability to win the game. If you went all-in, you could buy 36 shares of CLE. If CLE wins, you would receive $FBX 3,600, representing a +44% boost off your starting balance of $FBX 2,500.
Go for the Win— Priced just north of $FBX 30, CIN is right on the verge of being a big underdog. In order to buy 36 shares as if you went all-in on CLE, you would only need to spend $FBX 1,110, less than half your portfolio. Hitting on a big underdogs early in the week could cement your place in the Top 5.

Sunday 1pm ET

A full slate presents a plethora of trading opportunities

Game Breakdown — Sunday 1:00 ET: NYG ($FBX 32.34) @ CHI ($FBX 67.66)
Upside Pick: NYG | Shares: 77+ | Potential Earnings: > $FBX 7,700

83% of Fanvest analysts are buying TB this week

Very simply, this is a bet against QB Mitch Trubisky. We believe Daniel Jones is better QB here and taking the superior quarterback as an underdog is a luxury in today’s NFL, especially when they open around $FBX 35.

Game Breakdown — Sunday 1:00 ET: ATL ($FBX 33.08) @ DAL ($FBX 66.92)
Upside Pick: ATL | Shares: 75+ | Potential Earnings: > $FBX 7,500

The Falcons are one of the few teams in the league that can match the Cowboy’s offensive firepower. Atlanta will need to keep their foot on the gas to keep up with an explosive Dallas team, but the Falcons are built for shootouts. This is one of the more exciting underdogs to back in W2.

Game Breakdown — Sunday 1:00 ET: CAR ($FBX 21.85) @ TB ($FBX 78.15)
Heavy Favorite Pick: TB | Shares: 31+ | Potential Earnings: > $FBX 3,100

It’s hard to image Tom Brady starting the season with consecutive losses. Look for the Buccaneers to light up the scoreboard this week against a CAR defense in rebuild mode.

Game Breakdown — Sunday 1:00 ET: DEN ($FBX 28.12) @ PIT ($FBX 71.88)
Heavy Favorite Pick: PIT | Shares: 34+ | Potential Earnings: > $FBX 3,400

83% of Fanvest analysts are buying PIT this week

With a 69.4% home win rate since 2010, the Steelers are a formidable team when playing at Heinz field. That stat is not as valuable considering there are no fans, but with Big Ben back under center, Pittsburgh should be one of the week’s safest fanvestments.

Game Breakdown — Sunday 1:00 ET: SF ($FBX 72.90) @ NYJ ($FBX 27.10)
Heavy Favorite Pick: SF| Shares: 34+ | Potential Earnings: > $FBX 3,400

Not a single Fanvest analyst is selling SF this week

The 49ers still support one of the best defenses in the league, and one of the best offensive strategists in head coach Kyle Shanahan. This is a Super Bowl contender facing one of the most inexperienced teams in the league.

Game Breakdown — Sunday 1:00 ET: MIN ($FBX 41.55) @ IND ($FBX 58.45)
Small Underdog Pick: MIN | Shares: 60+ | Potential Earnings:>$FBX 6,000

As a modest underdog, MIN can provide a potential +50% upside if they can keep the Colts’ run heavy offense in check. Kirk Cousins may have one of his best games of the year against 2019’s 10th-worst pass defense.

BUF has a history of playing down to its competition, so this divisional matchup presents risk for fanvestors looking to back the favorite.

Apparently the Jags’ players never got the memo about 2020 being a rebuild year. They took down IND in W1, will the Minshew Mania continue one more week?

We were shocked to discover that GB is 5–5 against DET over the last 5 years. Coming off a stunning W1 meltdown loss, a healthy Matt Stafford and an angry DET team will give its familiar foe everything it’s got.

LAR exceeded expectations in W1 snagging a win against DAL, while PHI fell short against WSH. Which teams will show up in W2?

Sunday Late Slate

This is when the top fanvestors separate themselves from the pack

Game Breakdown — Sunday 1:00 ET: KC ($FBX 76.05) @ LAC ($FBX 23.95)
Heavy Favorite Pick: KC | Shares: 32+ | Potential Earnings: > $FBX 3,200

KC can’t be stopped on offense. We’d argue that anything <$FBX 75 might be considered value for the reigning champs. If there was any doubt about whether or not the Chiefs would experience a SB hangover, KC’s W1 domination of HOU should be proof that KC might be even better than last year. We think that KC is a fine investment almost every week, but against a depleted LAC team that barely beat CIN in W1, we’re licking our chops at the prospect of buying KC at the open.

This game will decided in the trenches, as Chase Young and a ferocious WSH D-Line take on the porous ARI O-Line.

There are less than a handful of teams who can compete with BAL, and HOU is not one of them.

Sunday Night Football

Do I ride the favorite or roll the dice with the ‘dog?

Game Breakdown — Sunday 8:20 ET: NE ($FBX 34.12) @ SEA ($FBX 65.88)
Heavy Favorite Pick: SEA | Shares: 37+ | Potential Earnings: > $FBX 3,700

The addition of safety Jamal Adams from the Jets should help SEA return to its cover 3 glory days. Translation: more zone defense and less room to run for former MVP Cam Newton. Fanvestors shouldn’t pass up the superior QB at home at a modest $FBX 58.00 opening price.

Monday Night Football

It all comes down to this.

Game Breakdown — Monday 8:30 ET: NO ($FBX 66.82) @ LV ($FBX 33.18)
Heavy Favorite Pick: NO | Shares: 37+ | Potential Earnings: > $FBX 3,700

The Saints are the better team. With an opening price tag of $FBX 66, we’d consider NO on sale. Fanvestors would be wise to consider adding the Saints to their W2 portfolios sooner rather than later as NO’s price should only go up from here.