Fanvest’s W3 Preview
Welcome to Weekly! Beat the market through investing in winners.
Pricing Tiers
It’s all about value. Below you’ll find the pricing tiers based on share price and return, or the amount of fanbucks you’d receive upon a win:
- Blue Chip: Share Price > $FBX 80 (Return < 1.25x)
- Large Favorite: Share Price $FBX 60 — $FBX 80 (Return 1.7x — 1.25x)
- Small Favorite: Share Price $FBX 50 — $FBX 60 (Return 2x — 1.7x)
- Small Underdog: Share Price $FBX 40 — $FBX 50 (Return 2.5x — 2x)
- Big Underdog: Share Price $FBX 25— $FBX 40 (Return 4x — 2.5x)
- ‘Dog of the Week’: Share Price < $FBX 25 (Return > 4x)
Example: 1 Share of CIN purchased at $FBX 30.30 would increase to $FBX 100 upon a win, a return of (100/30.30 = 3.3x)
The Fanvest Five
Each week our team of analysts will select their five favorite plays of the week and the record will be tracked in this article.
Sunday 1pm: Cincinnati Bengals ($FBX 30.30) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Bengals lost two consecutive games to start the season, but there is a lot to be excited about heading into W3. CIN was competitive in both games, losing by a combined total of 8 points. More importantly, Joe Burrow is a BALLER. His stat line against CLE: 37–61 316 yds 3 TD 0 INT. This Eagles defense has been roasted twice in just as many weeks and Joe Burrow is hunting for his first W.
Sunday 1pm: Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons ($FBX 54.55)
This Bears’ defense isn’t nearly as talented as they were in 2018, and with the strength of ATL being their offense, the Falcons should provide another strong scoring performance this week. ATL has defensive concerns, but there aren’t many better teams to get back on track against than the Mitch Trubisky led Bears.
Sunday 1pm: Tennessee Titans ($FBX 40.91) @ Minnesota Vikings
A team that played in last year’s AFC title game is an underdog against Kirk Cousins? The Titans are the stronger team available at a discounted opening price of $FBX 40.91. TEN doesn’t offer the same upside as some other underdogs, but they could be fanvestors most likely shot at a ROI >100%.
Sunday 4:25pm: Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks ($FBX 64.73)
The Seahawks have surrendered the kitchen to chef Russell Wilson. Through 2 weeks, Wilson is on fire: ranked #1 in QBR (+140), TD passes (9), and passing completion rate (82.5%). If this pace continues, Wilson, the league’s most criminally underrated QB, should finish 2020 with at least an MVP trophy on his resume. This game will be one of the cheapest opportunities to back Russell Wilson at home this year. The sale on SEA won’t last very long.
Sunday 8:20pm: Green Bay Packers ($FBX 37.85) @ New Orleans Saints
GB has dominated through two games, outscoring opponents by an average of 15 points per game. Now they face a NO team that is coming off a loss and playing without star WR Michael Thomas. NO will also be without the the normal Superdome crowd, so the home-field advantage is marginal.
Thursday Night Football
A matchup between two of the league’s worst teams makes this TNF contest difficult to handicap. It’s no coincidence that MIA and JAX will open the week close to $FBX 50. The X-factor for MIA is always the play of veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, one of the league’s most volatile QBs. Dolphins fanvestors will be betting on some Fitzmagic this week.
Sunday 1pm
With 11 sacks in 2 games, this WSH defensive front has demonstrated their ability to wreak havoc on opposing QBs. An elite defensive performance could lead to a WSH upset, and at a price near $FBX 25, you have the potential to 4x your investment.
Without the menacing noise of the Bills Mafia in the stands, QB Jared Goff and the high octane LAR offense should continue to flourish. Should the Rams stay hot, 2019’s mediocre campaign may be the outlier as the Rams were dominant in 2018. While the season is still young, this week’s game presents a great opportunity for LAR to prove its hot start isn’t a product of smoke and mirrors, but rather a return to form.
The new-look Pats are firmly in the playoff hunt again this season, and with the NFL’s best home record since 2010, they deserve to boast a share price in the mid $FBX 70s. While NE doesn’t present the week’s best potential ROI, they are arguably the week’s safest pick to bring home a win with Cam Newton under center.
This Texans offense is not the same high-flying unit that it was in years past. They were not able to put up more than 20 points in either of the first two weeks, and now they face arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. Even with Deshaun Watson under center, this is another brutal matchup for HOU.
Daniel Jones has shown that he’s capable of big games — he’ll need to have one against the 49ers. As one of W3’s cheapest home teams at the open, the Giants could offer huge upside should they be able to upset a seriously depleted SF squad.
Sunday 4:05pm Start
With more talent than NYJ at nearly every position, IND may be underpriced despite opening the week near $FBX 80. Head coach Frank Reich has won 68.8% of IND’s home games, showcasing why the Colts are so heavily favored.
Try not to overreact to last week’s results. The Chargers offense is still in a state of flux, and it will remain there until Justin Herbert is announced as the starting QB over Tyrod Taylor. This is still the team that barely squeezed out a win over CIN in W1, and they are one of the most expensive teams on the board.
Sunday 4:25pm Start
TB’s W1 was not pretty, but the Bucs’ W2 performance showed glimpses of awesome potential. TB’s offense shouldn’t have trouble outscoring an injured Denver team that’s still trying to find its identity. While the elevation in Denver is always a concern, we like Brady and TB’s chances to win.
It’s safe to say that QB Kyler Murray and newly acquired WR Deandre Hopkins have found their groove. Kyler Murray is playing like an MVP candidate and Deandre Hopkins has been nearly unstoppable. With multiple DET defensive backs dealing with injuries, the Murray-Hopkins train should keep rolling in W3.
Monday 8:15pm Start
In a matchup between the league’s leading offenses, this game may very well come down to a single defensive stop. Fanvestors focused on underdogs should relish the opportunity to back Mahomes & Co. for under $FBX 50.00.
