Fanvest’s W4 Preview
Welcome to Weekly! Beat the market through investing in winners.
Pricing Tiers
It’s all about value. Below you’ll find the pricing tiers based on share price and return, or the amount of fanbucks you’d receive upon a win:
- Blue Chip: Share Price > $FBX 80 (Return < 1.25x)
- Large Favorite: Share Price $FBX 60 — $FBX 80 (Return 1.7x — 1.25x)
- Small Favorite: Share Price $FBX 50 — $FBX 60 (Return 2x — 1.7x)
- Small Underdog: Share Price $FBX 40 — $FBX 50 (Return 2.5x — 2x)
- Big Underdog: Share Price $FBX 25 — $FBX 40 (Return 4x — 2.5x)
- ‘Dog of the Week’: Share Price < $FBX 25 (Return > 4x)
Example: 1 Share of CIN purchased at $FBX 30.30 would increase to $FBX 100 upon a win, a return of (100/30.30 = 3.3x)
The Fanvest Five
Each week our team of analysts will select their five favorite plays of the week and the record will be tracked in this article.
Last week was the first release of the “Fanvest Five” and we started out strong, going 3–1–1. We invested in 3 underdogs and 2 favorites, and we returned $FBX 350 off invested capital of $FBX 228, good for a 54% ROI. This week we’re employing the same strategy of three underdogs and two favorites.
Sunday 1pm: Jacksonville Jaguars ($FBX 39.30) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Minshew Mania might not be over just yet. Sure it was a rough outing last week against Miami, but don’t forget about JAX upsetting the Colts or threatening the Titans right down to the final minute. Joe Burrow may be on the verge of greatness, but for now he’s getting sacked a league worst of 4.7 times per game. We’re not so sure if the right team is favored here.
Sunday 1pm: Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears($FBX 41.01)
The Bears benched Mitch Trubisky in W3, and backup QB Nick Foles led them to an incredible comeback victory in ATL. Despite inconsistency at the QB position, the Bears are one of seven teams to start the year with a record of 3–0. CHI has enough talent on both sides of the ball to hang with IND, and they have proven they can win games without elite QB play. They offer significant value as a home underdog this week.
Sunday 1pm: Seattle Seahawks ($FBX 71.43) @ Miami Dolphins
After starting the season with three convincing wins, the Seahawks are now the favorite win the NFC and Russell Wilson is the favorite to win the MVP. Russell Wilson has been cooking thus far, and we expect that to continue against Miami. Expect SEA to control this game from start to finish.
Sunday 4:25pm: New England Patriots ($FBX 28.32) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Bill Belichick has always played close games against teams led by Patrick Mahomes, and this week should be no different. Expect a big game from Cam Newton on the ground, as NE will need to control time of possession to secure a victory.
Sunday 4:25pm: Buffalo Bills ($FBX 57.19) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Both these teams are loaded with offensive talent and game-changing playmakers. The Bills however, vastly outweigh the Raiders on the other side of the ball. BUF’s stout defense should be able to slow down Derek Carr’s methodical attack, which has been the unit that’s carried LV thus far.
Thursday Night Football
It may be tempting to take the Jets here as a home underdog. You say to yourself “it’s Jeff Driskel starting at QB, anyone could beat them”. Well if you said that, then you clearly haven’t watched the Jets play in 2020. This team has a very real chance of going 0–16. We always advise investing in Primetime games since you can reinvest earnings from winning teams, but this is as close to a stay-away as it gets.
Sunday 1pm
Even if WSH is able to consistently generate pressure on Lamar Jackson, they won’t be able to contain the league’s strongest rushing attack. BAL is as close as it gets to being a “sure-thing” this week, so fanvestors seeking a guaranteed victory should look no further.
With the status of Titan’s star WR A.J. Brown still up in the air, the impressive Steelers defense may have one less player to worry about this week. Big Ben’s 66–44 career road record suggests PIT should have a great chance to win this one as the week’s cheapest favorite.
Betting against Brady at home is always a bad idea, and with the TB defense beginning to find their groove, it’s hard to find a safer favorite to invest in this week. This may be Brady’s toughest challenge yet as a Buc’, but fanvestors should feel safe that he will deliver a win.
Deshaun Watson has struggled against the league’s toughest schedule through the first three weeks, but he has the perfect opportunity to correct course against MIN. The Vikings defense has been nothing short of abysmal, and Watson should torch them from the start. Fanvestors looking for the safest favorites should strongly consider the Texans.
The Lions finally put things together last week and took down a red-hot Cardinals team on the road. The DET defense has major question marks, but Matthew Stafford is still Matthew Stafford, and he has the talent to keep the DET offense rolling. With opposing QB Drew Brees potentially losing his touch, DET may have the better QB as a home underdog, making them a top value this week.
The Cowboys have arguably the best group of WRs in the league and they should feast against an injury-riddled CLE secondary. QB Dak Prescott could reenter the MVP conversation with a big game in Jerry World this week.
The Bears benched Mitch Trubisky in W3, and backup QB Nick Foles led them to an incredible comeback victory in ATL. Despite inconsistency at the QB position, the Bears are one of seven teams to start the year with a record of 3–0. CHI has enough talent on both sides of the ball to hang with IND, and they have proven they can win games without elite QB play. They offer significant value as a home underdog this week.
Coming off their first win of the season, it’s hard to pass on this Panthers team offering a potential 300% ROI at home. QB Teddy Bridgewater has played well so far, and the absence of star RB Christian McCaffrey should put the ball in Bridgwaters’ hands early and often this week. Value fanvestors should take a long look at the Panthers this week.
Sunday 4:05pm
The Rams offense has looked great so far, and they should continue to do so against a Giants’ defense that has struggled to start the year. DL Aaron Donald can’t be stopped by even the best offensive lines, and this NYG unit isn’t one of them.
Sunday 4:25pm
The Eagles’ season has been a letdown to say the least. They are still winless and they’ve faced teams with a combined record of 3–5–1. This team is capable of great things when healthy, but we really haven’t seen them in that state since they won they Super Bowl in 2017. This offense is averaging 19 points per game in 2020, and that number will only decrease after facing a tough SF defense.
Monday 8:30pm
The Falcons offense always puts up points, but their defense prevents them from winning games. Matt Ryan is good enough to hang in the game with Aaron Rodgers, but ATL will need the defense to step up to have a chance in this one. ATL has allowed a league worst 36 points per game through three weeks and Aaron Rodgers is playing like an MVP candidate.
