Los Angeles Rams 2020 Preview
Will 2020 be a return to Super Bowl form in LA?
TEAM OVERVIEW
A narrow defeat at the hands of New England in Super Bowl LIII gave way to sky-high expectations for the 2019 Rams. Despite a 9–7 final record, Los Angeles missed the postseason after their prolific 2018 offense suffered a modest regression. With many key pieces still in place from 2018’s Super Bowl run, starting QB Jared Goff may still find it difficult to recreate the success of the past as he will start behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks 25th headed into the season. Any improvement from last season’s poor blocking should keep the Rams in the playoff hunt, as head coach and offensive coordinator Sean McVay’s heavy use of both play action and motion always keeps opposing defenses guessing.
The defensive side of the ball showcases arguably the best player at any position in football, defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Posting a resume that speaks for itself, the 29-year-old is a four-time PFF defensive player of the year, two-time AP defensive player of the year, and six-time Pro Bowler. With Donald as the centerpiece, the Rams defense held opponents to a respectable 339 yards per game last season. All signs point to another winning season in LA, but playing in the best division in football could once again lead to a postseason spent at home for the Rams.
2019 TEAM DATA & FANVEST’S 2020 ESTIMATES
LAR 2019 REGULAR SEASON AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS) PERFORMANCE
FANVEST’S 5 FANTASY IMPACT PLAYERS
The wide receiver position is the place to start when it comes to LA, as the team has a strong pair of pass-catchers in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. With both players being drafted at virtually identical spots, who should fantasy players prefer?
Looking through the 2019 numbers helps illustrate just how close both players were statistically, but Robert Woods has the crucial distinction of running deeper routes and had a much stronger finish to the season. With Kupp primarily playing from the slot, Woods 8.5 average depth of target (ADoT) is far from a league-leading number, but it still beats Kupp’s 7.5 ADoT. Furthermore, Woods 11.2 targets per game in the final seven weeks certainly inspires more confidence than the 6.1 we saw from Kupp during that same time frame. Fantasy drafters stuck between the two should prefer Woods, but both players should be started in all formats.
TE Tyler Higbee has become one of the offseason’s most hyped fantasy players, and it makes perfect sense after seeing the 21.4 PPR points he averaged in the final five games of 2019. The concern with drafting Higbee at TE7 is the presence of Gerald Everett who played 50% of the team’s snaps last season and is expected by Higbee himself to have a significant role in the offense. Fantasy players would be wise to draft a TE with a clearer path to playing time, as both Higbee and Everett limit each other's season-long upside.
Jared Goff is hoping to recover his fantasy stock back to 2018 levels after finishing last year as fantasy QB13. Currently, the 16th QB off the board in most leagues, Goff’s steep discount stems from concerns about diminished offensive efficiency and poor o-line play, both of which could hamper the 5th-year QB. Regardless, Goff has playmakers at his disposal and is available for a 13th-round pick, so the QB has plenty of room to exceed value at the position should we see stronger blocking up front.
With RB Todd Gurley no longer in the mix, the Rams will take a committee approach at the running back position which will feature rookie Cam Akers, 2nd-year RB Darrell Henderson Jr., and 27-year-old Malcolm Brown. Henderson recently suffered a mild hamstring injury, casting his week 1 status into doubt. Akers is the presumptive starter and by far the most expensive of the three according to ADP. Malcolm Brown will likely serve as a rotational piece throughout the year as he has never eclipsed 75 touches in any of his five previous NFL seasons. For fantasy purposes, Akers is the player we want, but vague backfield situations are best to avoid on draft day until we can clearly see who earns the majority of the work in-game.
LAR 2020 WIN TOTAL & OUTLOOK
Our Fanvest model once again mirrors the line provided by FanDuel Sportsbook, leaving us to search elsewhere for value on win totals.
