San Francisco 49ers 2020 Preview
Another NFC title for Jimmy G and company?
TEAM OVERVIEW
Significantly exceeding expectations in 2019, the 49ers were just one play away from being Super Bowl LIV champions. Head coach and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan orchestrated a very efficient offense which utilized pre-snap motion and play-action at a top-5 rate last year, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Shanahan’s run-first, motion heavy scheme paid dividends in the form of both a lethal run game (2nd in rush yards per game) and a successful passing attack led by QB Jimmy Garoppolo who ranked in the top-10 in yards per attempt, completion %, and passing TDs. When combined with a stellar defense that registered PFF’s best team coverage grade on its way to holding opposing offenses to just 281 total yards per game, San Francisco is once again set up to be the head of the class in the NFC West.
2019 TEAM DATA & FANVEST’S 2020 ESTIMATES
SF 2019 REGULAR SEASON AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS) PERFORMANCE
FANVEST’S 5 FANTASY IMPACT PLAYERS
How the 49ers divide up snaps at RB has huge fantasy implications after we saw a combined six 20+ PPR point games from three different San Francisco RBs last year. A threeway timeshare is assumed to be present once again in 2020, featuring Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Jerick McKinnon. Utilizing the same ‘hot-hand’ approach as last year will lead to massive week-to-week variance in the output of all three rushers, so who should fantasy players target on draft day?
Boasting a 6th-round ADP, Raheem Mostert is the presumptive starter after earning 60% of the team’s snaps in the final five weeks of the 2019 regular season which should result in him handling the bulk of the early-down work. Tevin Coleman will likely serve as a relief piece for Mostert, and given the narrow gap in their projected carries, both can be viewed as quality flex options in season-long leagues. For drafters playing in PPR formats, Jerick McKinnon should be viewed as the best value of the three. With a dirt-cheap ADP of RB71, McKinnon is going undrafted much more often than he should be. While he hasn’t received a touch in an NFL game since 2017, McKinnon has always been an impressive receiver, recording an 82.7 PFF receiving grade and 468 yards after the catch in 2017. While he won’t lead the way in carries, McKinnon should earn the vast majority of RB targets which makes him a strong final-round pick in PPR leagues.
TE George Kittle sets up to be San Fransico’s leading receiver again in 2020 and is the consensus TE2 in all formats. Kittle dominated last season, leading NFL TEs in yards after the catch, avoided tackles, yards per route run, and receiving grade according to PFF. Averaging 15.9 PPR points per game over the course of 2019 makes Kittle a no-brainer 2nd-round selection.
The remaining 49ers pass catchers offer up plenty of potential, but it’s currently an injury-riddled group, so fantasy players will need to stay on top of news as we inch closer to week one. WR Deebo Samuel should be the #2 option once he returns from a Jones fracture, and San Francisco said they hope he returns to practice in the next 7–10 days. Samuel spent time as a RB in college, which shows up in both his 14 carries for 159 yards and his league-leading mark of 18 tackles avoided on receptions according to PFF. Thanks to the question marks surrounding his return, Deebo is available at a discounted 9th-round ADP and could easily emerge as a draft-day value after returning to play.
WRs Brandon Aiyuk, Richie James, and Kendrick Bourne will be competing for the remaining snaps at the position, and it appears the 1st-round Aiyuk has the inside track to being named the week 1 starter. However, a recent hamstring strain places him in question. Currently being drafted as the WR63 leaves plenty of room for Aiyuk to exceed his draft position assuming recent training camp reports of him looking “as good as advertised” are true. James and Bourne make for intriguing week one DFS options should Aiyuk and Deebo be unavailable, but neither player obtain the talent to be a featured WR in this offense and shouldn’t be considered for season-long leagues unless we can foresee Aiyuk and/or Samuel missing significant time.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo enters his age-29 season and has all the makings of a strong backup QB option in season-long leagues. With San Francisco passing the ball at the NFL’s second-lowest rate, Jimmy G doesn’t get enough passing opportunities to consistently score in the top-12 fantasy QBs. With that being said, the QB did provide three games with 28.0 or more fantasy points, showcasing a strong enough ceiling that should keep him off waivers in most leagues. Relying on Garoppolo as a season-long starter is a mistake in all likelihood, but the strong offense surrounding him should help the QB pay off his 12th-round ADP.
SF 2020 WIN TOTAL & OUTLOOK
With our Fanvest model providing the same win total number as FanDuel Sportsbook, there unfortunately isn’t any betting value to be found at the current odds.
