The FWX Player Markets: Movers, Values, and Strategy
How to attack the Fanvest player markets for Wild Card Weekend
With the recent launch of The Fanvest Wagering Exchange’s new player based markets, the roster construction opportunities are endless. With so many options available, navigating this new market can be a challenge, but certainly worthwhile for anybody who enjoys fantasy football.
The Biggest Movers in the FWX Markets
Once markets went live, a very noticeable trend began to take place. Players with either sustained fantasy success throughout 2020 or players who have recently had strong fantasy performances saw their price increase by a drastic 10 or even 20%.
With final player scores based on PPR scoring, the real challenge is determining who the strongest values are relative to both their price and PPR projection. With this in mind, a player like Josh Allen, who has already skyrocketed up to $FBX 29.5, offers little upside at that price point since his realistic ceiling is right around 40 PPR points. Those who got in early on Allen can reap the early benefits of a 20% return, while users who didn’t catch the Allen train early enough may want to consider other options at the position.
On the other side, a player like JK Dobbins, who has recently emerged as the Ravens #1 RB offers a higher relative ceiling of around 30 PPR points, available for just $FBX 12 per share.
Rams QBs and Injuries
Any week in the NFL carries significant injury news, and Wild Card Weekend is no different. The big question: who will start at QB for the Rams?
One could easily argue both QBs are underpriced, regardless of who starts. The most recent news heard from the Rams is that Goff managed to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday, suggesting he is on track to play this weekend. If this proves to be true, Goff is by far the best value on the market as he’s averaged 16.0 PPR points in the games he’s played in this season.
Many players who carry questionable tags won’t see as much trading volume as the players who don’t, offering potential value for fanvestors who closely monitor NFL injury news.
Take Cam Akers for example. He saw 25 total touches in Week 17 and has nearly complete control of the Rams backfield after Darrell Henderson was placed on IR. Thanks to his questionable tag, many fanvestors have opted to stay away, with Akers currently being rostered on just 8.1% of teams.
Wild Card Weekend Strategy
As we’ve already discussed, taking advantage of injury inefficiencies in the market is a fantastic way to gain an edge, but what else can users do to take down 1st place?
Just like standard DFS, stacking a pass-catcher with your lineup’s QB is a fantastic way to maximize that lineup’s ceiling. With the added element of a SuperFlex position that enables users to roster multiple QBs, the stacking possibilities are truly endless.
Another difficult decision users will be faced with is how many shares of a specific player to buy. The unfortunate reality is there is no ‘one size fits all’ strategy and what’s optimal will depend greatly on the specific week in question. Arguably the best advice that could be given is to use shares as a sort of confidence interval. If a user is very confident Russell Wilson will be the highest scoring QB, it’s likely wise to roster 50 shares. Somewhat confident JK Dobbins will be a top-3 RB? 10–20 shares may be the right choice.
Personally, I’ll be taking a special interest in players that are under 10% owned by the field. Why? The fewer competing lineups a player is on, the higher the chance that a strong fantasy performance will lead to a 1st place finish. If I roster an RB who’s only on 2% of teams and he ends up being the highest-scoring RB that day, I’ve effectively surpassed 98% of the field. Unlike traditional DFS, FWX makes ownership numbers public all throughout the week, so users can be acutely aware of how many competing rosters have a piece of their favorite player.
With so many options available what are you waiting for? It’s time to start fanvesting!
