Fanvest Fantasy — Divisional Round Movers and Strategy
How to attack the Fanvest player markets for Divisional Weekend
With the recent launch of Fanvest Wagering Exchange’s new player based markets, the roster construction opportunities are endless. With so many options available, navigating this new market can be a challenge, but certainly worthwhile for anybody who enjoys fantasy football.
The Biggest Movers in the FWX Markets
Very similar to Wild Card Weekend, the players who constitute a large quantity of their team's fantasy production immediately saw a drastic rise in price. Getting in on these types of players early will be crucial to sustained trading success, as the market clearly can’t get enough of these guys.
Some players, like Josh Allen and Nick Chubb, have drifted towards their optimal prices after the surge of buying at the market open. In 2020, Allen has averaged 24.8 PPR points per game, just $FBX 3.0 less than his current price. Similarly, Chubb has recorded an average of 17.3 PPR points per game, easily close to his current FWX price of $FBX 18.69. While historical fantasy performances have little reliability in predicting future fantasy outcomes, they do help demonstrate the forces that move the market, with most fanvestors basing their trades on recent fantasy performances as opposed to other metrics.
Other players, like Leonard Fournette, saw an initial surge in price but did not have enough momentum to match the 10–15% gains from other players like Allen and Chubb. After handling nearly every RB snap and 23 total touches on Saturday, Fournette could certainly be in line for a repeat of his backfield monopoly this week. As the 5th most expensive RB in the FWX markets, Fournette could be one of the most underpriced assets if he can recreate his 23.2 point outing. Granted, we don’t exactly know what led Bruce Arians to bench Ronald Jones and roll with Fournette all game, so this play certainly has some risk attached.
Learning from Wild Card Weekend
Last week’s games provided valuable insights into how fanvestors can attack the FWX player markets going forward.
Unlike Wild Card Weekend, the Divisional round offers very little in terms of injury news, with one key exception. After John Wolford’s injury on Saturday, Jared Goff took over at QB. This week, Wolford has already been ruled out and Goff is the listed starter, but the market hasn’t fully adjusted. Any user holding Wolford shares should immediately look to sell, and Goff’s price has fallen 2.5% since the market opened despite this news. Fanvestors should prioritize keeping up with injury news, as it can help provide edges over the market at large.
Another crucial element that the playoffs offer is that teams are much more willing to play their stars even more than they did in the regular season. Take Cam Akers and Alvin Kamara for example. Akers was initially believed to be in a backfield timeshare with Malcolm Brown headed into last weekend’s games, and Akers ended up handling 30 total touches. Even if he’s just a slightly better player than Brown, the playoffs force coaches to utilize their best personnel as much as possible. Alvin Kamara was recovering from COVID headed into Wild Card Weekend and some speculated he may not even play. The result: Kamara’s 4th-highest snap % of the season and 25 total touches. Players at the top of their team’s position group get even more work in the playoffs, and that’s something all fantasy players need to remember before they set their lineups this week.
Divisional Round Strategy
Like we’ve already discussed, focusing on star players and injury news can help fanvestors capture an edge prior to kickoff, but what else can users do to take down 1st place?
Just like standard DFS, stacking a pass-catcher with your lineup’s QB is a fantastic way to maximize that lineup’s ceiling. With the added element of a SuperFlex position that enables users to roster multiple QBs, the stacking possibilities are truly endless.
Another difficult decision users will be faced with is how many shares of a specific player to buy. The unfortunate reality is there is no ‘one size fits all’ strategy and what’s optimal will depend greatly on the specific week in question. Arguably the best advice that could be given is to use shares as a sort of confidence interval. If a user is very confident Russell Wilson will be the highest scoring QB, it’s likely wise to roster 50 shares. Somewhat confident JK Dobbins will be a top-3 RB? 10–20 shares may be the right choice.
Personally, I’ll be taking a special interest in players that are under 10% owned by the field. Why? The fewer competing lineups a player is on, the higher the chance that a strong fantasy performance will lead to a 1st place finish. If I roster an RB who’s only on 2% of teams and he ends up being the highest-scoring RB that day, I’ve effectively surpassed 98% of the field. Unlike traditional DFS, FWX makes ownership numbers public all throughout the week, so users can be acutely aware of how many competing rosters have a piece of their favorite player.
With so many options available what are you waiting for? It’s time to start fanvesting!
