W2 Weekly Value Fanvesting
One way to identify value in Fanvest’s Weekly (W) markets
Weekly Pricing Logic
In Fanvest’s Weekly (W) pro-football contests, teams are initially priced (in $FBX) every Tuesday according to their implied win probabilities.
EXAMPLE
CIN travels to CLE for W2’s Thursday Night game. CIN opened at $FBX 30.80 per share → CIN has an estimated 30.80% chance of beating CLE.
Prices fluctuate according to supply and demand from the 12 pm EST official (W) open on Tuesday through the respective kick-offs of each pair of combatants.
How to Identify Value Opportunities
When determining which teams to trade and/or fanvest in, it’s helpful to leverage other resources like The ISW., FiveThirtyEight’s traditional elo ratings, as well as ESPN’s NFL FPI, to see what consensus exists on the average projected win probabilities for teams each week. Take those win probabilities and convert them into $FBX/per share values to trade against.
Thursday Night Football
Trader’s Perspective: Let’s say you don’t plan on allocating any of your $FBX to buy and hold either of these teams through kick, but you believe that CIN is undervalued at the opening price of $FBX 30.80 (apx. 31% implied probability).
Based on the data above, let’s imagine you conclude that CIN should be worth closer to $FBX 36 (apx. 36% avg implied win probability), so you buy it at a discount at the open with plans to unload should it move closer to $FBX 36, or fair value.
As the screenshot above shows, the Fanvest market has pumped CIN’s share price up +21.49% since the open! An opportunistic trader could sell his or her shares for a nice trading gain of +$FBX 6.62 per share and reinvest the proceeds in more attractive fanvestments on Sunday.
Sunday Early Slate
JAX opened W2 with an implied win probability of 18.50% ($FBX 18.50), as of Wednesday afternoon, fanvestors have bid the Jags (+2.78 or 15.03%) higher to $FBX 21.28, closer to the average consensus win probability of 28% or $FBX 28.00 per share.
Fanvestors may chose to buy and hold the underdog at its current market price (should JAX beat TEN on Sunday), it would deliver earnings of +$FBX 78.72 per share.
Alternatively, those who purchased JAX at the open, could sell before kick at the current price, or potentially higher for trading gains of $FBX 2.78 per share to reinvest in more attractive games.
Sunday Late Slate
Sunday Night Football
It appears that the Fanvest Weekly market is efficiently driving prices towards average win probability consensus — SEA opened with an implied win probability of 65.88%, but has declined by (2.08%) potentially moving it closer to the average consensus of 58% listed above.
Monday Night Football
Best of luck in W2!
