Global Demand for Food Is Rising. Is Technology Powered Sustainable Farming the Answer?
Today, according to the most recent estimate by the UN, there are 7.3 billion people — and we may reach 9.7 billion by 2050. Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing countries. Urbanization will continue at an accelerated pace, and about 70 percent of the world’s population will be urban (compared to 49 percent today). Income levels will be many multiples of what they are now. In order to feed this larger, more urban and richer population, food production (net of food used for biofuels) must increase by 70 percent. Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion tonnes from 2.1 billion today and annual meat production will need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes.
This is shaping agriculture market in a way we had not seen before. It has become the immediate requirement for the farmers to increase crop production, either by increasing amount of agricultural land to grow crops or by enhancing crop yield on existing agricultural land through climate smart and precision farming techniques. However, the ecological and social trade-offs of clearing more land for agriculture are often high, particularly in the tropics. In fact, the agricultural land is decreasing every year. Farmers are left with the later option to increases crop productivity on existing agricultural land.
Farmers must grow more on the land they currently operate through what is called “sustainable intensification.” This means using precision farming tools, such as GPS fertilizer dispersion, advanced irrigation systems, environmentally optimized crop rotations and climate-smart farming. These methods can help produce more crops. They can also reduce the negative environmental impacts from over-stressing resources–preventing groundwater depletion and the destruction of fertile lands through over-use of fertilizer.
World agriculture has been able to meet the rapidly growing global demand for food, feed and fiber over the last half-century at real agricultural prices that were falling for much of the time, at least until the mid-80s. This was only possible due to sizeable agricultural productivity growth. However, in recent years, yield growth rates have slowed down notably in many countries and for major commodities. In particular, the growth rates of cereal yields have been falling since the Green Revolution years. It dropped from 3.2 percent per year in 1960 to 1.5 percent in 2000.
The suite of technological options should be as broad as possible, ranging from new plant varieties and animal breeds better adapted to changing conditions; to farming systems with improved water- and labor-saving technologies; reduction of losses and waste; and natural resource management. Technological advances are particularly needed in the staple crop sector. Preference should be given to technologies promising win-win combinations of enhancing productivity and sustainability managing natural resources, for example, conservation farming approaches based on no-tillage.
The agricultural sector also needs significant long-term private investment and public spending. Many large institutional investors, including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, have already made major commitments to support global agricultural production and trading in recent years — not least because agricultural (land) investments have historically delivered strong returns, increased diversification, and outpaced inflation.
Numerous studies have shown that investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) can generate extraordinary high rates of return. Nevertheless, under-investment in agricultural R&D in many developing countries has continued. Total global investment in agricultural R&D totaled USD 41 billion in the year 2000. The public sector accounted for 59 percent and the private sector 41 percent. Most private sector research was carried out in developed countries and tended to be focused on the requirements of commercial farmers in well-developed regions. Public sector R&D still dominates in developing countries and is more focused on basic research and the improvement of staple food and minor crops. Public investments in agricultural R&D worldwide grew from USD 16 billion in 1981 to USD 23 billion in 2000. There were large differences between and within regions: While public investments in the Asia-Pacific (driven by China and India) region more than doubled over this period, investments sub-Saharan Africa only grew at an annual average of 0.6 percent from 1981 to 2000 and actually fell during the 1990s. Agricultural R&D investments are increasingly concentrated in a few leading countries in each region.
Global policy makers, corporations, and consumers must put the global food balance higher up the agenda. International business leaders who are participating in this supply chain have to better communicate the need for policy changes and for developed countries to incentivize investment in regions where there is the most potential for growth. Our food security will depend on it.
About Fasal: It is an AI powered IoT platform for Agriculture ecosystem that records a variety of growing conditions on the farm. It then uses artificial intelligence and data science to make on-farm predictions, before delivering the insights that matter into your hand. With its subscription-based model, Fasal aims to cut down the costs for farmers and provide them real-time alerts about crop’s conditions. Moreover, predictive models and optimization of daily tasks, it gives the farmers a complete control over their future harvest.
