Why “Crosscheck” may turn out to be the most important word of the 2016 election

The voter suppression program was just one example of how Republicans managed to seize control of the U.S. by focusing on state and local politics while Democrats weren’t paying attention for 30 years.

There are plenty of good reasons for the left to be freaking out over the recent U.S. presidential election. Here is one more.

Chances are, you’ve probably never heard of something called “Crosscheck.” It is the name of a “voter fraud” system instituted in many Republican controlled states in recent years. Crosscheck throws people off voting rolls if their name appears in another state. It’s up to you to prove you are a different person. If not, either you can’t vote, or your vote is thrown out.

Now, there were some media warning the country about Crosscheck well before the election. This piece in Rolling Stone tried to sound the alarm:

What’s far more likely to undermine democracy in November is the culmination of a decade-long Republican effort to disenfranchise voters under the guise of battling voter fraud. The latest tool: Election officials in more than two dozen states have compiled lists of citizens whom they allege could be registered in more than one state — thus potentially able to cast multiple ballots — and eligible to be purged from the voter rolls.

The data is processed through a system called the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program, which is being promoted by a powerful Republican operative, and its lists of potential duplicate voters are kept confidential. But Rolling Stone obtained a portion of the list and the names of 1 million targeted voters. According to our analysis, the Crosscheck list disproportionately threatens solid Democratic constituencies: young, black, Hispanic and Asian-American voters — with some of the biggest possible purges underway in Ohio and North Carolina, two crucial swing states with tight Senate races.

Following the election, investigative reporter Greg Palast managed to get ahold of the Crosscheck data. Palast has done groundbreaking work on voter suppression efforts for years now. Still, the numbers from the Crosscheck program surprised even him.

That article is not well written, and can be a bit hard to decipher. But essentially, Palast concluded that Crosscheck was used to prevent 1.1 million people from voting in this election.

Either they were not allowed to vote; or their votes weren’t counted. And there is no way to know if your vote was counted or not, and thus no way to appeal it.

This perhaps is his most easily understood takeaway:

“Trump’s victory margin in Michigan was 13,107 and the Michigan Crosscheck purge list was 449,922. Trump’s victory margin in Arizona- 85,257, Arizona Crosscheck purge list- 270,824;. Trump’s victory margin in North Carolina was 177,008 and the North Carolina Crosscheck purge list had 589,393 people on it.”

If Clinton wins those states, she’s the president. And again, the overwhelming number of names of people on the list are, of course, minority voters.

Now, unfortunately, I think it’s impossible to know for sure what happened with these people’s votes in the end. Did they not vote? Did they try to vote but get turned away? Did their votes get thrown out? You would have to go voter by voter to know. And even then, you may never get a clear answer. That is part of the system’s genius if your goal is to suppress the vote. There often isn’t a trail.

So, I don’t think anyone will overturn this election. But, Crosscheck is a great illustration of how the GOP is winning massively at the state level. Their control of state legislatures allows them to pass voter ID laws, cut early voting times, reduce the number of polling places, etc. They are able to pass these laws because they have spent decades gaining control of state governments.

That lets them do the small stuff that chips away at the Democratic voter base. Not a lot, just little by little. But when you lose a state like Michigan by 12,000 votes, and exit polls showed the Democratic candidate winning the state by a comfortable margin, then you realize that the other team is playing the game so well that you don’t even realize a game is being played. Until you lose.

The left pays attention to presidential and national politics. The GOP has been taking control of the U.S. one statehouse at a time for the past 30 years. Side note: That let’s them gerrymander U.S. House districts also to protect their majority there.

Following Trump’s win, we are all debating white anger, ignoring the poor, Electoral College reform, Clinton vs Sanders again. These may not be wrong. But our focus on them is a sign that the giant blind spot remains. While we wonder why more millennials didn’t vote for Clinton, the GOP is one state house away from being able to call a constitutional convention.

Remember: 28 GOP states have already passed calls for a Constitutional Convention. As of January, they will control 33 state houses. They need 34 for a Constitutional Convention.

Trump is horrifying. But this is the stuff that should galvanize people. If the GOP can re-write the U.S. Constitution, well, I’m sure your imagination can do the rest.

While we are scared of Trump (for good reason), what we should all really be focused on is how do we help Dems take the Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, and NC state houses by 2020.

Beyond that, what is the most next vulnerable state house? The GOP knows that answer. You do not. What are most vulnerable governors? GOP knows. You do not. How realistic are their chances to get 38 state governments? The GOP knows. You do not. (I don’t either.)

I think it’s important to understand just how badly Dems have been outmaneuvered. People should be clear-eyed. The Supreme Court will likely be lost for a generation. Gerrymandering takes a couple of decades to undo.

This is not a battle for the mid-terms. Or 2020. The GOP began this strategy in the 1980s, when Pat Robertson lost to George Bush in the ’88 primaries. He turned his attention to local and state level and planted the conservative seeds there.

Dems need to take the same long view. It’s a 20-year road to taking the country back, state legislative district by district.

That work must start now.