One Big Thing

To build or to buy

“Most popular elective at Harvard Business School, someone told me today, is about how to buy a small business and run it. Not “startups” in the tech sense, but good old-fashioned running something. Seems like a good sign,of something I dunno what.”

Hart’s Comment

The startup world is extreme. Very few people are successful startup entrepreneurs, but an entire industry has cropped up with a distinctly obnoxious range of language, rituals, and social media-fueled nonsense. It doesn’t help that the startup world’s noise does not start with sound business principles.

For a variety of reasons, most people should not start a “startup.” They should not try to compete with the Stanford engineers and Softbank investors. They shouldn’t join this race because, statistically, they won’t win. But also because the work is not that interesting. The next – fill in the blank – startup is actually pretty boring.

Once they get beyond the hype, I suspect, many of these strivers don’t care about high-flying startups, per se; instead, they want to be their own bosses, do meaningful work, and create some value.

The course “Entrepreneurship through Acquisition” offers its students an alternative pathway to business ownership: “to complete assignments on topics relevant to buying a small company such as how to screen potential acquisition targets, the likely types, terms and amounts of debt financing, the typical deal terms and the items open to negotiations, the sources of equity investments, including search funds, private equity partnerships and individual investors.”

This course may be light on tired terms like “hacking” and “lean,” but students learn one of life’s most important lessons: how to make the numbers sing as an owner.

Cities need more boring, profitable businesses. First, we need the right people to operate them.

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One Big Thing

How MIT Helped Win World War II

Hart’s Comment

In January 1942, German U-boats were so close to the American coast that Nazi commanders could see the lights from New York City’s mighty skyscrapers.

Americans had no idea. They would soon find out.

Over the next seven months, German U-boats killed 5000 American servicemen (nearly twice as many as Pearl Harbor); destroyed 22-percent of the tanker fleet; and sank 233 ships in the Atlantic Ocean.

These Nazi sharks were so fierce that Churchill once remarked that “the only thing that ever really frightened me during the war was the U-boat peril.”

What brilliant military strategist defeated the U-boat threat? None.

The solution came from engineers and scientists at MIT who developed a system of radars that rank among the war’s most significant accomplishments.

MIT’s Radiation Lab developed “the microwave early-warning (MEW) radars, which effectively nullified the V-1 threat to London, and air-to-surface vessel (ASV) radars, which turned the tide on the U-boat threat to Allied shipping.”

The group at MIT was so successful that “ in November 1942, U-boats claimed 117 Allied ships. Less than a year later, in the two-month period of September to October 1943, only 9 Allied ships were sunk, while a total of 25 U-boats were destroyed by aircraft equipped with ASV radars.”

As advanced radar further diminished the U-boat threat, American war production, shipping, and troop deployments increased and expanded. Hitler must’ve hated MIT.

Americans appropriately memorialize the war’s fighting men and women, but World War II was in many ways a conflict of industrial production and scientific breakthroughs.

Although they are not storming fortified beaches, nerds and factory workers win wars.

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One Big Thing

Marc Andreessen is the real deal

He believes that Silicon Valley is mission control for mankind, which is therefore on a steep trajectory toward perfection. And when he so argues, fire-hosing you with syllogisms and data points and pre-refuting every potential rebuttal, he’s very persuasive.

Hart’s Comment

Jim Clark and Marc Andreessen changed modern computing when they started Netscape in 1994. The Netscape-as-disruptor story is legendary, but to me, the company’s most remarkable achievement was its founding team: co-founder Clark (50) was twice the age of co-founder Andreessen (23).

Already a giant in Silicon Valley, Jim Clark could have named his co-founders and team. Instead, Clark partnered with someone half his age. That takes some combination of guts, bravado, and instincts.

It worked. The Clark-Andreessen partnership resulted in the first widely-adopted internet browser and, within four years, a $4+ billion acquisition.

It’s hard to imagine another industry — say, banking or healthcare — where a Master of the Universe bets cofounder-level time, reputation, and fortune on a kid half his age. I’m no Silicon Valley fanboy, but Netscape’s story offers some validation for its historical ethos of creativity, risk-taking, and innovation.

Since Netscape, Andreessen has soared. His firm, the cleverly-branded a16z, backs many of this generation’s big winners.

If you have time, I’d recommend the linked profile.

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One Big Thing

BREVITY, Baby

In the weeks leading up to Churchill’s 1940 memo on BREVITY, the Germans occupied Paris; De Gaulle formed an exile government; Hitler ordered the plans for an invasion of the United Kingdom; and the Battle of Britain began.

Yet Churchill felt compelled to denounce “woolly phrases.”

God Save the Queen.

Hart’s Comment

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One Big Thing

L.A. could find itself underwater

This rare mega-storm — which some say is rendered all the more inevitable due to climate change — would last for weeks and … economic damage from an ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000) would amount to more than $725 billion statewide.

Hart’s Comment

In 2018, the United States experienced 14 climate-related disasters that each cost $1+ billion.

To put that number in perspective, between 2016–2018, the number of billion-dollar climate events, per year, was more than double the long-term average.

According to the World Bank, of the cities most at-risk for catastrophic flooding, half of them are in the US.

The United Nations recently released a special report on the impacts of global warming. One official described the report as “a deafening, piercing smoke alarm going off in the kitchen.”

Back in L.A., local leaders understand that global warming is real and happening, so “climate change” is not the issue. The issue, instead, is whether public policies can mitigate the risks from what can only be called a real and potentially catastrophic threat.

Unfortunately, makers of American public policy — backed by their climate tribes — are still debating science. That does not allow them to take the next step, which would be to debate conservative, liberal, and compromise responses.

Storms and wildfires are becoming more frequent and more expensive. As policy procrastination looms, the choices become narrower and more extreme. Maybe that’s the point.

Maybe that’s the point.

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One Big Thing

How Traditions Start

Originally established in 1885 in recognition of President George Washington, the holiday became popularly known as Presidents Day after it was moved as part of 1971’s Uniform Monday Holiday Act, an attempt to create more three-day weekends for the nation’s workers.

Hart’s Comment

For a people who fought a revolution over executive authority, Americans sure love their presidents. We carve them into mountains, honor them with prominent memorials, and name children and airports after them.

Presidents’ Day is a less patriotic holiday than, say, Independence Day. Museums and cultural institutions do specific historical programming to celebrate our nation’s chief executives, but for the most part, people are not waving flags or reenacting famous battles.

Nevertheless, on the third Monday of every February, Americans take time off, reflect on their country’s improbable journey, and click on every flag-covered email from their favorite retailer promising BIG DEALS.

Most people cannot imagine not having this three-day weekend. So, with what started as a day to celebrate George Washington’s birthday, we now have an American tradition.

Traditions start somewhere. As Hallmark has been doing for over a hundred years, traditions are shepherded through society by a committed few.

The champion of modern Presidents’ Day was Senator Robert McClory, who happened to be — like many great Americans — a product of the Marine Corps and Dartmouth College.

On this cloudy Monday, I say thank you, Senator McClory.

As a big believer in congressional checks on the executive branch, I don’t know why, exactly, we are celebrating, but I was just offered a sweet deal on something I don’t need.

I cannot wait until Black Friday!

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One Big Thing

Hart’s Comment

This chart highlights the central economic, political, and societal challenge in America. On a human level, this chart and what it represents is tearing at our country’s seams.

From 1948–1973, Ms. Worker’s received pay commensurate with what she produced.

Channeling Richard Feynman, you could easily explain to a child Ms. Worker’s experience from 1948–1973: she was fairly paid.

Since 1973, though, Ms. Worker’s productivity has increased by three-fourths, but her pay has increased by less than ten percent.

A child would call Ms. Worker’s situation unfair.

Because it is (and yes, I understand globalization, productivity, and markets).

As software and artificial intelligence consume cities, Ms. Worker deserves better than to be treated as a work-but-don’t-reward robot.

If not, she and her 100 million friends will have some harsh things to say to their unfair overlords.

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One Big Thing

On this episode of Super Cities, we do a deep dive with Oliver Noteware and Alice Formwalt, co-founders of Street Smarts VR.

You can listen to this episode of Super Cities on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform.

Hart’s Comment

Oliver and Alice are an exciting team. Oliver spent time in the military and at McKinsey before starting Street Smarts. Alice is a simulation design expert who has conducted research at Stanford’s Neuroscience Institute and informed design of pilot simulations for the U.S. Air Force.

On this episode, we cover virtual reality, the future of policing, and the power of design.

You can listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform.

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Super Cities №175 — NEW POD: Virtual Reality, Policing, and Design was originally published in Capital on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

One Big Thing

On this episode of Super Cities, we do a deep dive with Oliver Noteware and Alice Formwalt, co-founders of Street Smarts VR.

You can listen to this episode of Super Cities on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform.

Hart’s Comment

Oliver and Alice are an exciting team. Oliver spent time in the military and at McKinsey before starting Street Smarts. Alice is a simulation design expert who has conducted research at Stanford’s Neuroscience Institute and informed design of pilot simulations for the U.S. Air Force.

On this episode, we cover virtual reality, the future of policing, and the power of design.

You can listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform.

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Super Cities №175 — NEW POD: Virtual Reality, Policing, and Design was originally published in Super Cities on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

One Big Thing

Women outlast men

“Women live on average six to eight years longer than men do. Eighty percent of women die single,” Sallie Krawcheck, CEO of Ellevest, told TheStreet.

Hart’s Comment

Some of my neighbors have only ever known one home. They were born in an apartment in Brooklyn, and they will die in the same apartment in Brooklyn.

My neighbors add a richness to our community that money cannot buy. They know every intersection and stop sign; they remember long-forgotten stores and store owners; and they are perpetually upset by the new stuff going up. Above all, they dislike the never-ending noise and merciless traffic.

The United States spends a lot of money to make sure my neighbors, and people of their generation, age with a baseline level of dignity. This is a challenging commitment. Between 2014 and 2050, the number of Americans aged 65 and over will double to 83 million.

Americans spend money through social programs to offset the costs of aging, but as anyone who has witnessed the process knows, the amount of money, time, and resources necessary to accommodate aging are substantial and increase over time.

The all-in responsibility is never easy and, according to the Pulitzer Prize-winning author Jared Diamond, the choice comes down to “Honor or Abandon.”

The challenge of aging is not an American one. By 2050, China will have almost 500 million people over the age of 60.

As cities get more crowded and better connected, policymakers must understand how this transformation affects those who, by choice or necessity, will not operate the next great internet-connect device.

Someone will have to pay the enormous emotional, societal, and financial bill. Let us hope they do it with empathy.

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