The Kosmos 954 satellite had a unique mission and design. The satellite was a Soviet radar ocean reconnaissance satellite (RORSAT). A RORSAT is a type of spy satellite that sits in low orbit and uses powerful active radar to monitor the movements of ships. If operating under perfect conditions, a RORSAT could track destroyers and aircraft carriers in real time, however, poor weather and high seas could greatly interfere with a RORSATs tracking ability. RORSATs also had a short lifespan of two to four months. As a result, they were only launched when the U.S.S.R. was expecting a large increase in NATO or U.S. naval activity, for example, just before major naval exercises or during a crisis. During peacetime, the U.S.S.R. had one or two RORSATs operating, but if a war with the West ever broke out, the U.S.S.R would have quickly launched more to improve wartime targeting of enemy ships. Kosmos 954’s radar was so powerful that conventional batteries could not meet the satellite’s energy needs, and solar panels would produce too much drag in low orbit, so instead the satellite was powered by a uranium-fueled nuclear reactor. The reactor contained 50 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium packed into carbon-encased fuel disks. A safeguard had also been built into Kosmos 954. In a reactor emergency, the satellite would automatically execute a maneuver to lift the nuclear reactor into high orbit where it would no longer pose a danger. This orbit was known as the “burial” or “graveyard” orbit.

Kosmos 954 was launched in September of 1977, and became uncontrollable shortly after launch. The U.S.S.R. would later claim that a problem had occurred with Kosmos 954’s rocket engine. This meant that the emergency boosting maneuver necessary to lift the reactor into burial orbit could not be carried out. In November of 1977, the United States realized that Kosmos 954 was in serious trouble. Then in January of 1978, the U.S. and the U.S.S.R held secret talks concerning Kosmos 954, which was projected to soon come crashing down somewhere in North America. In these talks the U.S.S.R confirmed to the U.S. that there was a nuclear reactor on board, that it would not go critical, and that it was designed to burn up during re-entry. The U.S. promptly informed some key allies about the falling satellite. NATO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were also informed of the Kosmos 954 crisis, however the public was kept in the dark. It was not known exactly where the satellite would fall, and U.S. officials feared that the satellite might re-enter over the U.S., raining radioactive debris across heavily populated areas and several major cities. The Department of Energy, with support from the Department of Defense, prepared for the possibility of Kosmos 954 making reentry over the U.S.

In late January 1978, about 3 months after Kosmos 954 was launched, the satellite fell back down to Earth, raining a trail of debris across the Northwest Territories in Canada. Canada requested U.S. assistance, and a joint American-Canadian team began a clean-up effort codenamed Operation Morning Light. This team would spend most of 1978 combing over northern Canada, searching for any fragments of Kosmos 954 that survived re-entry. They used specially-equipped planes and helicopters to sniff out radiation from the Canadian wilderness. If a radioactive satellite fragment was detected, a team was sent out on foot to search the nearby area. The teams had to deal with difficult terrain and sub-zero temperatures. The sensitive equipment used to survey the environment for radiation did not always work well in such conditions.

Although the Northwest Territories was not densely populated, the teams feared that a civilian would come across a radioactive piece and bring it back to his or her town. Two civilians eventually did come across a piece of Kosmos 954, but it was not a radioactive fragment and the civilians were not irradiated. Another one of the searcher’s greatest fears was the possibility that one or more of the fuel disks may have survived re-entry intact. The fuel disks were so radioactive that they would have been lethal to anyone who came within 1000 feet! Thankfully, none were found, and they are thought to have burned up upon re-entry along with most of Kosmos 954. However, some other dangerous fragments were found, including one piece that was radioactive enough to have killed anyone who was in very close proximity to it for over an hour. All radioactive fragments were sealed into shielded containers for transport to Canadian government laboratories.

The U.S.S.R continued to launch RORSATs well into the 1980s, with the last RORSAT launched in 1988. There were other RORSAT failures post-1978, although these failures were not as serious because the Soviets had implemented a second safeguard. In the event the RORSAT was not able to reach burial orbit, it would simply eject the reactor in low orbit, where the reactor itself would burn up entirely upon re-entry. This prevented a repeat of the 1978 Kosmos 954 crisis. The reactors of many dead RORSATs are still in burial orbit and will eventually fall back down to Earth, which means that humanity will have to launch missions to clean up the reactors sometime in the next couple hundred years.

References

Canadian scientist Quentin Bristow’s personal account of Operation Morning Light

A CIA report on Kosmos 954 (Declassified in 2008)

A 1984 article in the Yale Journal of International Law by Alexander F. Cohen

November 2015 article by Steve Weintz in The National Interest

A 1983 CIA report on Soviet space programs (Declassified in 1997)

The soldiers, numbering no more than two dozen, belonged to the 41st Armored Brigade based in Fort Paramacay. They were led by Captain Juan Carlos Caguaripano, who was previously a member of the National Guard until he was kicked out in 2014 due to his anti-government sentiment. In a video widely circulated by Venezuelan internet users, Caguaripano says that his actions have Constitutional justification, and denies that he is launching a coup d’etat.

The base was almost immediately besieged by police and National Guard (GNB). Agents from SEBIN, Venezuela’s intelligence service, and CONAS, Venezuela’s elite police unit, tried to quickly subdue the troops, but failed. Dozens of civilians residing near the base heard about the uprising and poured out onto the streets to show their support for Capt. Caguaripano and his men. The GNB clashed with these demonstrators, attempting to disperse them and clear the streets. Other citizens tried to delay the police and military by building makeshift barricades on the roads leading to the base. At least one demonstrator was killed.

Sometime around midday the base was recaptured, although Capt. Caguaripano was not caught. Venezuelan journalists claim he and some of his men escaped with their rifles, grenades, anti-tank missiles, and ammunition.

The government sought to quell talk of an uprising. State media claimed that what had transpired was a terrorist attack on Fort Paramacay. The Venezuelan military said the base was attacked by “paramilitaries” and the attack was repulsed. Seven alleged paramilitaries were arrested.

Rumors spread among Venezuelan internet users like wildfire. There were false reports of uprisings at other bases, including in the capital, Caracas. Another rumor spread that the Valencia uprising was a fake, a government plot to justify another wider crackdown. Proliferators of this rumor pointed to how a member of the ANC had made a statement about the uprising before the Minister of Defense.

Venezuela has continued to rapidly destabilize since the July 30th election and subsequent installation of the ANC. Yesterday, the Attorney General of Venezuela, a supporter-turned-critic of the the government, was kicked out of office. As she was the last independent voice in the government, her ouster means that now all facets of the Venezuelan government are directly controlled by President Maduro loyalists.

Below is a map of Djibouti City and the Balbala suburb with foreign military facilities marked with red numbers.

Camp Lemonnier

Marked with a red 1, and immediately adjacent to the international airport is Camp Lemonnier. This camp was once a base for the French Foreign Legion. It is now the largest permanent U.S. base in Africa. The base is home to fighter jets, transport aircraft, drones, and a large detachment of Special Forces. It houses almost 4,000 personnel.

Southwest of Camp Lemonnier is Chabelley Airfield, which has been home to a U.S. drone base since 2013. Both Camp Lemonnier and Chabelley Airfield are used as launching points for counter-terrorist missions into Somalia and other nearby countries. The U.S. intends to keep Camp Lemonnier active for at least the next 20 years.

Chinese Military Base

Only 7 miles away from Camp Lemonnier, and marked with a red 2, is China’s first overseas military base. The facility, which officially opened Aug. 1st, can house up to 10,000 personnel and has large underground storage spaces for storing fuel, munitions, and equipment. The base currently lacks an airfield or docks, although there are reportedly plans to construct docks soon. The purpose of the base is to support Chinese navy ships that pass through the region. The Chinese military also believes that the construction and upkeep of the base will help them gain useful experience in establishing future overseas military bases.

The base is adjacent to the recently opened Doraleh Multipurpose Port which was financed and constructed with Chinese help. Like the U.S., the Chinese plan to keep their Djibouti military facility active for at least the next 20 years.

Japanese Military Base

The Japanese Self Defense Force base, marked with a red 3, was built in 2011. Like Camp Lemonnier, it is also immediately adjacent to the international airport. The facility houses 180 personnel and a few maritime patrol planes. The purpose of the base is to provide aerial support for JSDF ships combating piracy in the region. The Japanese government may expand the base in the near future to accommodate additional planes.

French Military Bases

France’s air base 188 is marked by the red 4. Like the Japanese and U.S. bases, it is also immediately adjacent to the international airport. France has had a constant military presence in Djibouti since before the country became independent in 1977. The base houses a few transport planes and fighter jets, as well as a small number of helicopters.

Marked by a red 5 is the base for the 5th Combined Overseas Regiment. This French Army base is home to hundreds of soldiers and their vehicles. It is located in the Monclar neighborhood, not far from BA 188 and the international airport.

As part of the European Union and NATO’s counter-piracy mission, France allows other European troops to use its facilities. German and Spanish troops have been stationed at French bases in Djibouti.

Italian Military Base

The Italian base is not in Djibouti City, but located to the southeast of the capital, closer to the Somali border. The base was opened in 2013 to support Italian Navy activity in the region. Up to 300 personnel can be housed, but the facility currently only houses 80.

Future Bases

It is quite possible that Djibouti may end up hosting as many as eight different militaries. Many more countries are thinking about constructing their own bases in Djibouti due to its strategic location and accommodating government. Almost any nation will be allowed to station troops if it can pay tens of millions of dollars in rent. Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are all contemplating the placement of their own bases in Djibouti.

I set out to learn more about the snipers and hopefully discover their specific unit. Their weapons are not police issue, the man on the left has an SVD and the man on the right has an AK-103 or 104. These are weapons that are used by the army. The helmets also caught my attention. I’m very certain they are ops-core FAST helmets, a type of helmet used by many special forces worldwide. Unfortunately, they are not wearing any visible unit patches or insignia.

While combing Venezuelan special forces units social media pages, I came across this photo posted the day before the July 30th election on a social media page belonging to Strategic Operational Command (CEOFANB).

The soldiers are from Grupo de Acciones de Comando (GAC), a special forces unit that is part of the National Guard (GNB). GAC was deployed nationwide as part of “Operation Republic 2017”, the military’s operation to safeguard the July 30th vote. Their uniforms and gear match the uniforms and gear of the rooftop snipers.

GAC was first formed in 1985. One source I found said that GAC currently numbers around 1,000 men. Like many military units, they are tasked not with defending the country but with maintaining internal order. Last year GAC was made part of the then newly formed Special Action Forces (FAES). FAES is intended to be a parallel military loyal personally to President Maduro. The commanders of the Venezuelan military are very afraid that the rank and file soldiers may not stay loyal.

Although GAC is certainly responsible for the Táriba shootings, GAC is not responsible for all of the deaths yesterday. Demonstrators were also killed by the PNB and GNB, as well as by the colectivos. The situation in Venezuela continues to destabilize by the hour. I’d expect to see a spike in demonstrator deaths soon, when President Maduro swears the ANC in.

July 22: Chinese spy ship spotted monitoring Talisman Sabre 2017.

Last weekend, the Australian Defense Ministry announced that a Chinese Type 851 spy ship had been spotted monitoring the U.S.-Australia Talisman Sabre military exercise. The Diplomat reports that the specific ship was the Haiwangxing, which belongs to China’s South Sea Fleet. The ship was probably sent to collect signals intelligence on U.S. and Australian assets. Defense News notes that the Chinese are interested in the electronic warfare aircraft and UAVs which took part in Talisman Sabre. The Chinese Navy has six Type 851s in operation and another one under construction.

July 24–26: Exercise with Hellenic Navy

On Monday, three Chinese Navy ships arrived for an exercise with the Hellenic Navy. The three Chinese ships are on a six month global tour which began in April, and involves stops at 20 different countries around the world.

These Chinese ships were the Chaohu, a Type 903 replenishment ship, the Jingzhou, a Type 054A frigate, and the flagship of the formation, the Changchun, a Type 052C destroyer. Previously these ships had stopped in Turkey.

July 24–28: Exercise with Russian Navy in Baltic Sea

This two part exercise formally began on July 21st with a coastal exercise, but the sea phase of the exercise took place this week. This is the first joint exercise between China and Russia in the Baltic Sea. Three Chinese ships participated, the Luomahu, a Type 903 replenishment ship, the Hefei, a Type 052D destroyer, and the Yuncheng, a Type 054A frigate. The Royal Navy, the Royal Netherlands Navy, and the Finnish Navy all monitored the Chinese ships at different times during their stay. Previously these ships had run drills in the Mediterranean Sea.

July 27–29: Exercise in Yellow Sea

China also announced a large scale naval exercise in the Yellow Sea this week. Not much is known about this drill because it was announced suddenly. Some suspect that it will involve the Liaoning, China’s active duty aircraft carrier, which recently wrapped up a visit to Hong Kong, or even China’s unnamed second aircraft carrier which was launched earlier this year and is conducting sea trials.

One of the types of drones that was shown yesterday was the Phantom Pro 4. I am certain it is the Phantom Pro 4 and not the Phantom Pro 3 because Venezuelan T.V. footage showed PNB officers holding the fancy new Phantom Pro 4 remote controllers which come with an attached screen.

The Phantom Pro 4 can take 14 photos a second, fly at more than 30 mph, and has a battery life of 30 minutes.

The second type of drone, also made by DJI, is the Inspire 1. According to DJI, the Inspire 1 is designed for professional filming. It can record in 4k HD or stream live footage in 720p HD while at a maximum distance of 5km from the operator.

In his remarks at the rally, President Maduro said that these drones are going to be used to safeguard an upcoming vote. The vote, scheduled for July 30th, will be held to elect members of a new “Constituent Assembly” to replace the National Assembly. Months ago the National Assembly was disbanded on order of the Supreme Court. The opposition-dominated National Assembly had long been a thorn in the side of President Maduro. Although they have been barred from returning to their offices by the police, the National Assembly claims that they are still the legitimate legislature, and the plan for a Constituent Assembly is unconstitutional. The country has been rocked by protests, labor strikes, and repeated crackdowns. These drones will likely be used by the PNB to suppress protests and intimidate demonstrators ahead of Sunday’s vote.

After examining U.S. Navy video footage, I visually ID’ed the mystery boat as a Parmida 6 crew boat. This was challenging because there are very few reference photos of the Parmida 6 available on the internet and there are many similar looking IRGC ships. Also, the source footage was filmed at a distance and is not very good quality.

We can see that the silhouette of the ship matches closely. Additionally, the bridge windows are an exact match.

Other key identifiers are the white cylindrical objects flanking the bridge, which I assume are inflatable lifeboats, and a prominent angled mast antenna.

According to open source information there are actually two types of Parmida 6 boats. There is the smaller crew boat, which has a crew of 6, and a larger supply boat, which has a crew of 15. The Parmida 6 crew boat is intended to be used to transport troops and equipment to islands, as well as aid in the installation of emplaced weaponry. The larger Parmida 6 supply boat can transport food, water, fuel and up to 90 combat troops. Its aft deck can be used to carry trucks.

The Parmida 6 boats were first launched in 2015. They are the latest improved designs of the original Parmida 1 boats which were launched back in 2010. The Parmida boats are designed and built by Iran.