Shutting down thought and disabling the mind in intellectual discussions under the pretext of “not delving into conspiracy theories” is nothing but an escape from reality. These intellectuals recognize only a mode of thought based on clear and correct evidence; everything else, in their view, is nothing more than illusions and delusions, in other words, conspiracy theories.

Dear respected intellectual: You, as an expert, are supposed to interpret what is ambiguous in events and analyze facts using your expertise in times of scarcity of information and lack of evidence. Otherwise, analyzing the obvious is something everyone can do. This is why we need experts, and they are few, to analyze the obscure aspects of events and tell us what we do not see, so that we may prepare for it, without assuming that those analyses are absolute certainties, as if revealed from heaven. For the rational person considers predictive analysis to be nothing more than a probability, not an absolute truth or an indisputable certainty.

The danger is not that we might be wrong in our analysis. The real danger is that we might stop analyzing events altogether, by denying what we dislike, or out of fear of being wrong, under the pretext that it is all just “conspiracy theories.” Even more dangerous is that we wait until events turn into complete facts, only to then start enduring them instead of analyzing them!

“Because the Iranian delegation follows the ‘elevator’ approach. All around the world, everyone who enters an elevator turns toward its door and turns their back to those behind them, except in Iran, which is almost the only country in the world where people ride the elevator facing one another, eyes locked, due to a lack of trust and fear of being robbed.

It’s clear that the Iranian delegation was influenced by the ‘Iranian elevator’ phenomenon and was negotiating in an ‘elevator-like’ manner with the American delegation, while every Iranian suspected every other Iranian.”

Professor Mehdi Motaharnia is an Iranian national residing in Iran. Born on February 12, 1966, he is a prominent intellectual figure, analyst, and theorist of Iranian domestic and foreign policy. He also serves as the head of the “Simorgh” Institute for Thought and Studies. He has worked for years as a professor at Islamic Azad University branches in Qom, Central Tehran, and North Tehran, and has been a visiting professor at the Universities of Tehran, National Defense, Strategic Studies, and Sayyed Shirazi, specializing in political science, future studies, sociology, and cultural management.

Over a quarter of a century, there has been a movement akin to tectonic plate shifts in the Arab world, in which the center of regional power — political, economic, and media power — has moved. Power and influence have shifted from old Arab capitals to the Gulf capitals: from Cairo, Damascus, and Baghdad to Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Doha. The center of gravity and decision-making is now here in the Gulf, and the influence of Gulf states now surpasses that of other Arab nations across various fields.

If the top leaders of AI companies want to invest, they visit the Gulf states. If the Russians and Ukrainians want to talk, they come to the Gulf. If the American president considers visiting the region, he will undoubtedly think of the Gulf states first. This is the new reality that Professor Abdulkhaleq Abdulla called “The Gulf Moment.”

This Gulf moment is different from all the moments the Arab world has lived through, from the Nasserist moment (in Egypt), the Baathist moment (in Iraq and Syria), to the Islamist moment. For the first time, we are living in a moment completely free from narcotic slogans, a moment that fully expresses the aspirations of peoples and the hopes of humanity, a moment entirely devoid of ideological work and filled with developmental visions and future ambitions. It is a moment in which the Gulf states are required to be a pillar and supporter of the security of Arab countries from Iraq to Mauritania, during times when these countries have suffered from revolutions, disintegration, and difficult economic conditions.

The “Gulf Model” has become the goal and the desired objective, not the Baathist, Nasserist, or Islamist model. The Gulf model is the model that any Arab president thinks of replicating, and it was present from the very first moment in the mind of Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa as he pondered the question: “How can we build the Syrian state?”

This talk, or this new Arab reality that Professor Abdulkhaleq spoke about, does not please many and provokes others, especially those who live in the past and make a living from it. Among those who did not like this new reality is the former Secretary-General of the Arab League, Dr. Amr Moussa. It seems that talking about a Gulf moment provokes him, and you know that provocation brings out the worst in you and sometimes brings out the stupidest in you. So, Dr. Amr Moussa came out with a question in a rare moment of manifestation unlike any before. He said, “What is the Gulf role in preserving Arab security apart from buying weapons?” Then he added, and I would that he hadn’t: “I would like to remind you of the Damascus Declaration of 1991, and that the security of the Gulf must have an Arab element to support the Gulf states.”

Oh, brother Amr! Your questions are difficult and reveal the shallowness of a kiddie pool! “What is the Gulf role in preserving Arab security apart from buying weapons?” A very difficult and embarrassing question, but it does not embarrass us in the Gulf. Rather, it embarrasses Amr Moussa himself. A seasoned Egyptian politician of Amr Moussa’s stature, does he not know that there are Arab countries considered among the most important clients of the UAE defence industries group EDGE? Wake up, brother Amr! We do not just buy weapons; we manufacture weapons and export weapons. We export weapons to Egypt, Algeria, and other countries. The Emirati company EDGE, brother Amr, sells weapons, drones, boats, and armored vehicles, and this is just one group among many companies in the Gulf, such as SAMI in Saudi Arabia and others. You can request and choose from the weapons, and if you don’t have the money to buy them, you are welcome in the UAE. We remain the depth of Arab security; we have never fallen short.

As for the “Damascus Declaration” and that we in the Gulf need an Arab element to protect our security, Dr. Amr: I want just one thing from you! I want you to tell me how many martyrs have died from our Arab brothers in the Gulf wars or in defence of the Gulf, compared to how many Gulf martyrs have died on the battlefronts against Israel in Syria, Jordan, and Egypt? If only you would enlighten us, Dr. Amr: how many Arab soldiers were martyred on our land, and how many Gulf soldiers were martyred on your land? Should I give you a hint? Who am I to give you a hint when you are a former Secretary-General of the Arab League! But rest assured, Dr. Amr, we appreciate your concern and your fear for us.

For example, as you see, over the past month, the Gulf armies shot down thousands of drones and missiles without any Arab element and without the Damascus Declaration, not even a YouTube declaration. And we say as the Egyptians say: “God will not give you a heavy burden unless you have shoulders to carry it,” and we have shoulders that can carry it, Doctor. I think, and God knows best, Dr. Amr Moussa, that you first need a moment of awareness, and as the Greek sages said: “Awareness is more important than ranting.”

If you want to see the Gulf moment with your own eyes, look at the Strait of Hormuz, which turns into a global crisis. Why is the Strait of Hormuz a global crisis? And why did the World Food Programme warn that a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to starve 400 million people? The answer, brother Amr, is simple and doesn’t require cleverness or flamboyance. The answer is that the Gulf states have a global role, not just an Arab one, in food supply chains. The exports of Gulf states of fertilizer materials, petrochemicals, helium, and others are important to the world and its food supply, from India to Brazil, and their interruption threatens global food security. And food security, brother Amr, is part of national security, and its absence could lead to rebellion, hungry revolutions, and big stories. It was said long ago: “I am amazed at the one who cannot find his daily bread, how he does not go out to the people brandishing his sword,” Dr. Amr!

The poet Abu al-Ala al-Ma’arri said:

And the star, eyes consider its sight small,

but the fault lies with the eye, not with the star for being small.

The strength and security of nations depend on the strength of their economy, Dr. Amr. Protests erupted in Iran about two months ago, and it was on the verge of collapse. Why? Because its currency collapsed. And Turkey, was on the brink of the abyss in 2014. Why? Because its currency was also on the verge of collapse, and what saved it was a Gulf state. This is well known and even acknowledged by the Turks themselves. The rule you are supposed to know, Dr. Amr, is that your national security is linked to your economic security, and whoever supports your economy is the one who preserves your security. It’s a simple equation. For example: Gulf support for the Egyptian economy during the decade between 2011 and 2022 alone exceeded $100 billion.

In difficult moments for the Egyptian economy, and in difficult years for the Arab world, while some nations ended up disintegrating and others collapsing, the Gulf states were depositing billions in the Central Bank of Egypt, sending free fuel shipments, investing in Egypt, and participating in preserving its economic strength, and thus preserving its national security. This is a Gulf moment, not an Egyptian one.

Allow me, Dr. Amr Moussa, and focus with me on the matter of Damascus — not the “Damascus Declaration,” but Damascus itself — and you will see another Gulf moment waiting for you. The Gulf states supported Syria by paying off its debts, supporting it with energy and infrastructure, developing its ports, providing diplomatic and international cover, and lifting sanctions from it. Those sanctions that Iran tried to lift from itself and failed, and that Russia also tried and failed. But a Gulf state succeeded in lifting them from Syria. This is a duty and responsibility that the Gulf states have shouldered, for God will not give us a heavy burden unless we have shoulders to carry it. Whether you like this talk or not, the fault lies with the eye, not with the star for being small.

And God bless the Egyptian MP Diaa Daoud when he spoke about Egypt’s economic security and said with his usual arrogance: “We have saved a lot from you!” No, by God, no, brother Diaa, it is we who have saved a lot for you, and we who have shoulders that can carry a lot. Regarding economic strength, even though I feel that Dr. Amr Moussa does not like the language of numbers and statistics, what can I do?! You can’t force your brother to be a hero, perhaps Dr. Amr Moussa will come back to us and live the Gulf moment with us.

What does it mean, Dr. Amr, that the Gulf states represent two-thirds of the Arab economy? It means two-thirds of the power. In the world of numbers and statistics, if you raise your eyes and look to the skies, you will see that two Gulf airlines are among the top ten airlines in the world. And if you wish to turn your face towards the seas and oceans, you will see that a Gulf company is considered one of the largest port operators in the world.

Brother Amr! If you are in Cairo now, take the nearest bus and head east towards the Red Sea in the Ain Sokhna area to see the work of “DP World” so you can see with your own eyes a distinct Gulf moment close to you. And if you don’t like to see the skies, nor the seas and oceans, then go to the universities, and you will see that the best Arab universities are in the Gulf. Of course, we mean academic universities, not the Arab League. And if you like banks, you will find that the banking sector in the Arab world, the dominant one, is the banks in the Gulf states in terms of market value.

Dr. Amr! No problem. Forget the skies, seas, oceans, banks, and universities, man. We in the Gulf have stolen the spotlight from the Pyramids of Khufu and Khafre. Imagine with me: the Gulf is the number one tourist destination in the Arab world. Francesca, Michael, Huanzu, Petrovich, Milovic, and even Abdo and Mustafa prefer to visit the Gulf for tourism. Can you imagine, Doctor, that this desert region has stolen the spotlight from Khufu and Khafre within a quarter of a century? I consider this specifically a Gulf miracle, not just a Gulf moment.

What I fear most is that Dr. Amr Moussa will come out after all we have mentioned and say to us: “No, actually you buy tourists, not just weapons”!

https://youtu.be/iC3wpp9LH-Y?si=kV7fCwto4zax6s-u

Indeed, this new Arab reality that Professor Abdulkhalek Abdulla speaks of does not please many; on the contrary, it provokes others. Among those who are not pleased with this new reality is Dr. Rabab Al-Mahdi, Professor of Political Science and International Relations from the Arab Republic of Egypt, and host of the podcast “What’s the Solution?”

During her episode with Dr. Abdulkhalek — took place before the Gulf War — to discuss issues related to the United Arab Emirates, under the title “What Does the UAE Want?”, arrogance becomes clear throughout the dialogue.

Abdulkhalek (starting from 12:37):

“The most prominent success of the UAE in restoring stability began with Egypt. The UAE invested in Egypt and stood by it in hardship and ease from 2013 until today, for nearly 15 years. The UAE invested not only economically but also diplomatically and politically, and it has been deeply tied to Egypt and its stability. Egypt is the impregnable fortress of the Arab world.”

Rabab:

“Egypt has been a stable state for thousands of years. Given Egypt’s long history, we cannot claim that the UAE is the reason for Egypt’s stability because of the last thirteen years. Egypt is stable because of its geographic location, its history, its size. Egypt is far too weighty for the UAE to be the one stabilizing it.”

Abdulkhalek:

“I am not talking about 5,000 years, nor 1,000 years, nor 100 years. I am talking about 2013 onward. Egypt could have turned into Syria. There were enemies of stability in Egypt. That is my view. There was Libya and Tunisia, and there was that flood of those who came to power as part of the forces of chaos. Who stood with Egypt at that moment, that specific moment, not 5,000 years ago? In the last ten years, the UAE has been side by side with Egypt, affirming that Egypt’s stability is part of the Arab world’s stability.”

Rabab:

“Beautiful! I don’t want to go on too long about Egypt, so the conversation doesn’t revolve only around it, because I have other points I wish to address. But let me tell you that the comparison with Syria is not apt. You are a political science professor, and you know that Egypt’s societal composition is not like Syria’s, nor is the totalitarian regime that ruled Syria similar to Egypt’s systems — even if they are not democratic — nor the demographics, nor the cultural dimension, nor the history of the central state. All of this is completely different from Syria. What helped Egypt’s cohesion and unity is that its position and history do not allow it to be drawn into the kind of infighting we saw in Syria.”

Abdulkhalek:

“You know best, ‘the people of Mecca know their mountain passes,’ and the people of Egypt know theirs. That is your view. But I would like to cite what President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said, word for word, in television interviews: ‘Were it not for the UAE’s stance with us, we would be in a different situation than we are now.’”

Rabab:

“Abdel Fattah El-Sisi! When I say to you, ‘You have honoured us and brought us light today,’ does that mean you came and turned on the light for us? The light was already on before you came. For me, when the Egyptian president speaks and uses exaggerated expressions — which I sometimes disagree with — in appreciation of brotherly countries, it does not literally mean — and you, as a professor of political science, know this — that Egypt was on the brink of an abyss and was saved by economic aid from brotherly countries, or even from the IMF, which we are paying the price for. Moreover, that aid turned into debts on us.”

Abdulkhalek:

“Go back to the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, and what happened with the emergence of an Islamist current that achieved what it achieved, and the Rabaa incident. It was a very difficult moment of suffocation. Nations go through defining moments, and sometimes those moments are like being close to the edge of a cliff. It is true that Egypt is different from Syria, and Egypt is different from Tunisia, no doubt. But at a certain moment, there was a slight possibility — and perhaps a strong one, we don’t know — that Egypt could have gone down that path.”

Rabab:

“What preserved it in the end — whatever form that preservation took, and I have my reservations about it — was purely internal factors. The UAE did not send its liberation army down on us.”

Abdulkhalek:

“I do not claim that the UAE alone did that, but I only gave you one example. I could give you other examples of how the UAE played its role in restoring stability in more than one instance, including Egypt. It played its role, not necessarily the only role. And perhaps you are right that Egypt has this deep history and would not go the way of Syria, Tunisia, or any of the countries that fell during the ‘Arab Spring.’ That is also a matter for discussion, dialogue, and disagreement.”

Rabab:

“True! Disagreement does not spoil the essence of friendship.”

https://youtu.be/eiid5mom4QY?si=42wr-Unh8AY00gu0

I observed Dr. Rabab employs a coercive form of the fallacy known as “appeal to authority.” Rather than fostering genuine reasoning, she invokes a presumed shared expertise (“you know, as a political scientist…”) to pressure her guest into agreement. She exploits his credentials to silence dissent, implying that disagreement would betray his own knowledge or professional identity. This tactic discourages critical examination and frames opposition as ignorance or bad faith, effectively blackmailing the guest intellectually by holding his credibility at stake. Professor Abdulkhalek handled this tactic professionally and calmly.

In the end, I do not know the reason for this belittling of the UAE and its denial, but what I know for certain is that the UAE model has prevailed. I wish everyone all the best and success.

Thank you for your honesty. I truly respect your willingness to speak openly, and I hope you continue to do so. You’re clearly acting from conviction, not convenience.

I can’t fully agree that Iran’s attacks on the Gulf countries are primarily a reaction to the U.S. and Israel, just as I can’t fully agree that Israel’s attack on Gaza was primarily a reaction to Hamas. Both regimes have shown ambition and aggression, internally and externally, on their own terms for decades. Both are driven by a somber theology.

What worries me most is that we’re trapped in a hall of mirrors, endlessly blaming one another, often in the name of defending Palestinians. I don’t know how to break the cycle, but I deeply respect that you’re willing to talk rather than just shout.

Can I tell you something? People rarely speak this honestly about difficult things. I genuinely respect that. Thank you for talking to me like a human being. That alone is rare.

I think we disagree on how much of Iran’s behavior is reactive versus ideological. To me, the attacks on neighbors, whether through proxies or directly, aren’t just retaliation. They are also rooted in that same somber theology.

Here’s where I stand: I don’t trust the Iranian regime. But I also don’t trust Israeli governments. And I’m tired of ordinary people, and years of development and progress, being sacrificed for the pride of leaders on all sides.

On Western World: I also can’t dismiss what you’re seeing. There is a loss of strategic clarity. I’m not sure whose benefit your leaders are seeking. I’m not sure who is calling out the self-harming decisions. You’re not wrong to point out the sclerosis. I take your point seriously, especially coming from someone watching from the inside.

As an observer from outside the Western bubble, I would offer this: examine the current theology and reconsider it, the theology that has recently placed itself above international law and order. Europe still has more resilience than it shows, but it needs to demonstrate greater self-confidence and embrace a theology of humility and partnership.

International law is a beautiful common ground. If it isn’t just about some strange and somber theology, why would anyone abandon it?!

Thank you for the advice. But I am sure you did not know that:

• Dubai operated Tehran’s new Imam Khomeini Airport for the first five years, despite U.S. sanctions on Iran. Isn’t that coexistence?
• The UAE owns the second-largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. The financial return from that fund exceeds our income from oil.
• As of March 2026, Moody’s Ratings reaffirmed the United Arab Emirates’ credit rating at Aa2 with a stable outlook. This rating reflects strong confidence in the UAE’s economic strength, very low federal debt, and substantial fiscal reserves — despite regional geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The UAE was ranked among the world’s top 10 goods-exporting countries in 2025.

I am sure you did not know these facts. If you knew, I am equally sure you would not have advised me to surrender to Iran’s fascist and somber theology. The Gulf is no longer just oil and gas fields, nor are its people Bedouins who squander their wealth. The facts above are the result of 50 years of the UAE’s humility and partnership theology.

Geographically, the UAE is not significantly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as we have alternative routes. However, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are unfortunately more exposed. In any case, the Strait of Hormuz is closed because the U.S. wants it closed for political reasons, and it is naive to suggest that Iran could ever close it unilaterally.

Without a doubt, the Strait of Hormuz has been a convenient route. But challenges can reveal better opportunities that remain hidden in normal times. In fact, we are currently in the process of establishing our own Silk Road.

We have competitors. Some of them are jealous, hateful, desperate, and clueless. These include slow and bureaucratic countries that benefit from slowing our economic growth. Many — myself included — believe they are behind the disproportionate attacks on the UAE, whether through Iranian missile strikes or condescending international media attacks. This is about dirty competition, not strategic economic pressure exerted by Iran on the USA.

This is nothing new to us. We understand it. We get it. What they don’t understand is that the ever-learning management and leadership engine behind our unprecedented growth can do it again — and do it better — before the world blinks, much like Japan after World War II.

If I were you, instead of advising the UAE to surrender to Iran’s somber theology, I would advise the UAE’s competitors to learn to partner with the UAE and adopt its theology of humility & partnership.

As an Emirati, I know for a fact that, despite American pressure, there were no U.S. military bases in any of the Arabian Gulf countries before the 1979 Iranian revolution. Yet, lo and behold, Khomeini, Iran’s supreme leader at the time, was already calling for the export of his revolution to the Middle East, except Israel. Lo and behold, it was Iranian terror and the threat it posed that forced the Gulf countries to host foreign military bases. So, no, dear reader: the current Iranian terror against its neighbors is deeply rooted in their somber theology and has nothing to do with American bases.

Hence, morally, legally, and realistically, the situation is clear: Iran’s campaign of terror against its neighbors is illegal, and it has no connection whatsoever to any American or Israeli attack on Iran.

As for what some in the West call “the mess” and I call “terror”, the reality we are living in may seem new to you, my dear Westernreader, but it is nothing new to us. It is undeniable that we have tried accommodating it, as some Western people suggest, for the past fifty years. In my humble opinion, my dear reader, that is more than enough. Why reinvent the wheel?!

The current wave of terror has indeed shifted the balance of power, for those who can see reality beyond the condescending fog of Western media propaganda. The Iranian regime of terror, rooted in a somber theology, knows very well that it is nothing but a paper tiger. They also know they will have to swallow some very bitter Arabian pills. Did you know, and I am sure you do not, that since 2025, the UAE has been among the top ten goods-exporting countries in the world? The next Arab country is Saudi Arabia, ranked 27th.

So, before advising us, ask yourself: what else don’t you know about us? Please don’t take this personally. I know without doubt that you mean well. We are simply having a friendly yet blunt conversation.

Allow me to ask you: do you still seriously believe what the condescending Western media says about the coming Hormuz tolls? Please!

I am about to publish a relevant article that addresses why the UAE has received 50% of Iran’s terror missiles. It has nothing to do with American bases. I hope you read it.

One last point: my last article was about Saddam Hussein, the former Iraqi leader, and the need to be fair while analyzing political events. But if I were to compare him to Khomeini, the former Iranian supreme leader, I would say that, unlike Khomeini, Saddam enjoyed rocking Israel with his missiles and regretted wasting them on his Arab brothers. To the contrary, the Iranian missiles were never meant to be used against Israel, and they regret wasting and using them against Israel. That explains why 85% of their missiles are directed at their neighbors non-military infrastructures, and why half of that is directed at the UAE’s economy.

However, what our esteemed elders, may Allah preserve them , and the practice of professional regimes have taught us, compels us to review our performance for the sake of development and improvement. No matter how advanced our performance is, there remains room for improvement. The candidness I find in those distinguished theses impresses me, but like any double-edged sword, it must be used wisely, lest we lose fair-minded viewers and listeners.

In this context, a rational and robust proposition caught my attention. I agreed with over ninety percent of it and republished it to spread the benefit, and I am the first to benefit from it. However, I have reservations regarding the sarcasm it contained towards the moment of the arrest of the late Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, may Allah have mercy on him.

Upon analysis, we have the right to direct our constructive criticism at his actions, but it is wrong to insult him or belittle his person. Likewise, those who judge him based on the American narrative, that he was hiding in a pit at the moment of his arrest, terrified and fearful, are mistaken. War is deception, rife with misleading propaganda, and no one can definitively state how or where he was arrested.

The truth is that he was a human being like us, not infallible; he had his good deeds and his bad deeds. There is no doubt that his decision to invade Kuwait and attack his brothers in the Gulf was reckless, a strategic and national mistake, and undoubtedly one of his misdeeds. But his biography includes other bright chapters, including his confrontation with Khomeini and his minions, and thwarting their ambitions. Moreover, the story of his execution, in its entirety, is a bright historical tale.

If I wanted to be fair in my analysis, I would not judge his person based on what was said about him at the moment of his arrest, as a lion bound in his chains, but rather by what we all saw with our own eyes in his final moments: the moment of his heroic execution which Allah ordained for him, and his success in uttering the two testimonies of faith, smiling, indifferent to the hangman’s noose, may his enemies be confounded and disappointed!

The man had his good deeds and his bad deeds. If we turn the page on his ominous chapter, the chapter of the occupation of Kuwait and attacking his brothers in the Gulf, we find that the rest of his pages are heroic, whether we agree with his good deeds or differ with him over his recklessness.

May Allah have mercy on him, and may Allah have mercy on his innocent victims.

Thanks to Allah the Almighty, the UAE, and its pearl Dubai, remain as functional as ever. Life goes on. All systems are fully operational. Safety and security are as usual, day and night.

We have grown accustomed to the occasional sound of missiles being successfully intercepted. Our skin has grown thicker as a result of this ongoing live military drill, that we learn from.

In short, we are stronger than before and far more united. We have never felt closer to our government and our leaders. We now truly realize how much our rulers care for our safety and security.

Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed wisely said: ْلا تشيلون هَم “Don’t carry any burden.”

He proved it, during COVID and in the current situation, that it’s not just a slogan.

One last point:

Today, you will receive the same reply from almost anyone you ask in the UAE, whether citizen or resident, except from those who live among us, enjoying the benefits, smiling in our faces while secretly supporting others. Yet, ironically, if you ask them where they prefer to live and work, they will categorically say: the UAE. But their hearts remain politically with others, because of Palestine!

They have been naively blinded by political propaganda, which has brought nothing to the Palestinians and the region except chaos. They have the short memory of a fly, having forgotten the 500,000 innocent Syrians indiscriminately slaughtered by Iranian barrel bombs rained on the Syrian children from the sky. They would never wish to live in Iran or in any of those countries controlled by pro-Iranian militias, because they know they are failed states since 1979.

I love this Persian poem:

```

سر ناکسان را بر افراشتن

وز ایشان امید بهی داشتن

سر رشته خویش گم کردن است

به جیب اندرون مار پروردن است

```

Translation:

To raise the heads of the wicked and vile,

And from them to hope for goodness

…

This is to lose one’s own way,

To nurture a serpent in one’s pocket.

…

Bless you and your loved ones

1. When Hitler realized his army was being crushed, he launched 12,000 rockets at Britain. In the end, he lost the war, committed suicide, and Nazism fell.

2. When the Iraqi army was destroyed in Kuwait, Saddam Hussein launched 88 Scud missiles indiscriminately at the region. In the end, he lost the war, and the Baath Party fell.

American General Norman Schwarzkopf summarized this tactic in one sentence, saying: “These are weapons of terror, not military weapons.” In military science, there is a tactic known as “harassment fire,” which is not aimed at achieving gains on the ground, but rather at penetrating people’s consciousness with terror and giving them the illusion that the enemy is still in control, when in fact it is collapsing.

Today, Iran is repeating the same pathetic farce.

It has launched more than 2,200 projectiles at the UAE. Why? Because the Iranian regime from within has become like a corpse. The Supreme Leader has been killed, and more than 40 military commanders were eliminated in a single operation. In modern military history, there is no regime that has lost all its leaders in this way and then survived. In fact, this could be described as the largest assassination operation in the modern era.

The Iranian economy is in ruins, and its currency has lost its value. They are not launching strikes to achieve victory; they want to tell the world: “We exist,” just as Hitler and Saddam did. In psychology, there is what is called an “extinction burst,” meaning that any behavior, before it dies out, intensifies violently as a final desperate attempt to survive. This is what we are witnessing today in the Iranian regime.

The UAE intercepted 93% of the Iranian attacks, and life continued as usual. The economy is functioning, commercial centers are bustling, and airports are open. In contrast, in London, during just one year, 106,000 phones were stolen on its streets, and only 495 people were charged — meaning London police arrested less than 0.5% of the thieves. Ironically, the British Prime Minister’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, had his phone stolen in London last October.

The UAE underwent an immense stress test, but it succeeded, and its defense system proved itself with remarkable efficiency. The government demonstrated its unique preparedness. Imagine that all of this was achieved in the midst of a crisis — what will it be like after the war?

Remember: Defeated armies do not launch strikes because they are strong, but because they are dying. Do not allow the fire of the desperate to penetrate your consciousness and souls. Live your lives and pursue your dreams, for the UAE is a land of opportunity, resilience, and peace.

I say: May your tongue never be silenced, brother Yasir.

For the past 57 years, the Lebanese people have been reduced to footnotes in a series of regional and ideological conflicts, most recently those involving Gaza and Iran. All five million of us are treated as mere data points by those counting casualties, or simply as the natural fallout or extension of some ideological war. First, it was the Palestinians in the 60s, then the Egyptians, then the Syrians, then Hezbollah, and now it is the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies.

Since 1969, one delusional militia after another has dragged Lebanon into war against the will of its own people. I am 42 years old, and this is the sixth war in my lifetime. So let me say this clearly: we, as Lebanese people, are officially and irrevocably done with our land being used for proxy wars. And when I say “we,” I speak not only for myself but for millions of Lebanese, an overwhelming majority who refuse to be part of this conflict.

Now, some people may not know this if they spend their days scrolling through X and listening to ideologues, but I refer to a poll conducted by Gallup, one of the most respected American institutions that conducts surveys in Lebanon. The poll asked the following:

- Do you believe the Lebanese army should be the only entity authorized to bear arms, not militias?

79% of Lebanese said yes, and only 19% said no.

- In your opinion, do you support Lebanon’s engagement with Palestine in any of the following ways — specifically, entering into military conflict with Israel on behalf of other causes?

86% of Lebanese said no, and only 10% said yes.

So, our message today to the world is very clear: this is not our war. This is neither a war of the Lebanese people against Israel, nor a war between the Lebanese government and Israel. This is a proxy war waged by the IRGC and its proxy, Hezbollah. All five million of us are simply pawns and hostages — for the millionth time — in this regional equation.

We constantly hear lectures on morality from pundits in the West, comfortably seated in their living rooms, pontificating about resistance and aggression. When Hezbollah launched rockets on March 2nd, they received a thank-you from the Iranians, from Mojtaba Khamenei himself. He thanked them in a letter for entering a war, I quote, “in defence of Iran despite local obstacles.” “Local obstacles” meaning the Lebanese people!

And what did the Lebanese people get? Not just bombs, but over a million displaced, more than a thousand dead, mayhem across the country, and billions of dollars in losses. On top of that, we receive lectures on morality from pundits, intellectuals, and academics living comfortably in the West, people who want to use our suffering as Lebanese people to fuel their ideological fantasies. I want these people to leave us alone and find other outlets for their ideological ambitions.

This conflict is not about their problems in America with Donald Trump. It is not about their views on Gaza, some of which may be valid. It is not about a reductive worldview of good versus evil. And it is certainly not about some notion that they can change the world by using Lebanese lives. These ideologues — these woke leftists — want to exploit our suffering for their ideological fantasies.

These people are the objective and reasonable allies of the worst elements of Israeli society and the Israeli right. Since 1993, when Hamas was bombing buses, the extreme lunatic fringe of Israeli society killed Yitzhak Rabin. From that time onward, these two forces — the ideological woke left, Hezbollah, and the extreme right-wing in Israel — have been fighting each other at the expense of the people of this region, especially the Lebanese. Yet it is the will of the Lebanese people and the Lebanese government to put an end to this war. We want these people — along with the militias and the IRGC — to leave us alone and let us live in peace and prosperity.

As Lebanese, we want to ensure that regional conflicts — no matter their righteousness or lack thereof — are not extended into Lebanon at the expense of the Lebanese people. If you ask me, both as an analyst and as a Lebanese citizen, we have seen nothing from the IRGC except assassinations, bombings, the radicalization of society, rising sectarianism, and never-ending wars. So, yes, if you ask me whether I would like to see the Iranian regime fall, and whether that would solve Lebanon’s problems, I would say yes.

But my primary concern is not whether to support or oppose a war between Israel, the United States, and Iran. My main concern is Lebanon, and not what Western pundits say about it.

I have seen many pundits, some of whom have been guests on your show, speaking about Lebanon from all the way across the American continent, 7,000 miles away. I would like to ask them a question, right here from Beirut:

How many Lebanese need to die to satisfy your ideological cravings?

We keep being lectured to as if we are children incapable of deciding our own fate and our own national interest. Khalas, as we say in Lebanon, enough! We want them to leave us alone.

I have heard the argument that Israel is attacking Lebanon and that the Lebanese army should therefore stand alongside Hezbollah to fight Israel, as if that were in Lebanon’s national interest. This is not only idiotic and shameful, but also counterproductive. And how do I know it is counterproductive? Because unlike them, I rely on facts, research, and history to prove my point.

We know from history when Lebanon was attacked and when it was not. Based on studies I have conducted, 80% of us in Lebanon know that in the 20 years between the armistice agreement of 1949 and the start of PLO attacks against Israel in 1969, Israel violated Lebanese sovereignty 82 times. As a result of skirmishes during those two decades, 15 people died and 16 were injured. Why? Because there were no militias in southern Lebanon, and the state held a monopoly on arms.

Now compare that to the era often praised by some of these pundits, the era in which “resistance” was supposedly fighting Israel and protecting Lebanon. Between 2006 and 2026, 6,152 Lebanese died and 23,056 were injured. During this same period, Israel violated Lebanese sovereignty 62,150 times. That is a 410-fold increase in deaths and a 756-fold increase in violations. The math is clear. We need these pundits to stop lying to us at the expense of our lives because of their ideology.

Speaking of occupation and aggression, we know from the certification of the UN Secretary General in April 2000 that Israel had withdrawn from and ended its occupation of every single inch of Lebanese territory. Today, because of these so-called wars of liberation for Gaza and Iran, approximately 25% of Lebanese territory is now occupied. We also know, as a matter of historical fact, that in the 78 years of coexistence between Lebanon and Israel — despite 20 years of military occupation in the south — not a single Jewish settlement was ever established in southern Lebanon.

So, save us your buzzwords about expansionism, colonialism, and settlements. We know our history. We do not need people blinded by ideology to tell us that we must stand with an illegal, sectarian, fundamentalist militia to fight Israel. We do not need to do that. What we need is to stand with our army to establish Lebanese sovereignty, because once that is achieved, Israel will neither be able nor willing to attack Lebanon, and thousands of lives will be spared.

https://youtu.be/jPdo78fptzM?si=CTmcRN-vz1GiKeD9