So, as I’ve written before, a person a lot smarter than me makes it clear that the United States will never have a Second American Civil War because The Powers That Be will never let it happen for economic reasons. He says that the First Civil War happened because Slave Power feared they were going to lose money with the movement towards abolition in the United States.

Now that Dobbs has been handed down, there is now an economic wedge between Blue states and Red states. What’s more, Republicans in all their National Social corporate state fervor have begun to make a central tenant the idea of punishing “woke” corporations.

But, wait, it gets worse.

As all of this is happening, Steve K. Bannon is actively telling his “spiritual shock troops” to fuck with the smooth administration of elections via an “administrative coup.”

With all that in mind, on a macro level, at least, the conditions and rationale now exists for Blue States to leave the Union and, as such cause a Second American Civil War. Remember, we have a few more years for Republicans to grow ever more radical and political bloodthirsty.

So, in 2024–2025 we have the follow scenario — Blue States not only face the economic fear that birth control will be completely outlawed but they will have no way to get any political redress. If that’s not a recipe for severe political violence at a the state level.

Having said all of that, I still believe we’re probably going to slip peacefully into autocracy for no other reason than there just isn’t any Blue leadership with the guts to lead Blue states out of the Union when the 2024–2025 Certification Crisis happens. The counter argument could be that by definition the pressure of the macro forces that are tearing the Union apart would force Blue leadership to bubble up to the surface.

But I’m not prepared to assume anything like that will happen. Ultimately, I think we’re going to just slip into white autocratic minority rule. There will be no civil war, no political violence, we will, like the Biblical Jacob, willfully and trivially give up our American birthright — democracy.

The more I think about it, the more it seems that the source of many of our political problems in the United States is something akin to a Soft Singularity. What I mean by this is if you root around in what the fuck is going wrong with American politics, much of it has to do with how events move at an alarming rate relative to what old farts like me remember.

And when did this particular clusterfuck begin?

The second Obama administration, just as — you guessed it — smartphones began to reach a critical mass.

So, the case could be made that while we’ve not reached a Hard Singularity where we’re uploading our minds into the Cloud and fighting off potential destruction from Hard AI, we do face the destruction of American democracy by some of the symptoms of a Singularity.

The more you think about it, the more sense it makes. Not only do The Youths use technology different than The Olds, but that Always Online element leads them to have different expectations in their media, which we commonly call “being woke.”

Now, as an Old, I am sad that a lot of things we considered fun way back when have been “canceled” by GenZ. We can’t laugh at ourselves the way we used to. We can see hot chicks run around in their underwear at the Victoria’s Secret Runway Show. But, I have to admit, the reaction to these changes on the part of reactionary Republicans has got to be worse.

They want to burn everything to the ground, they want to welcome autocracy with open arms simply because they’re afraid, on an abstract basis, of being “canceled” because they say an off color joke in public that goes viral. (And what is “going viral” but something akin to a ping from a Hard Singularity happening in about 20 years.)

In fact, one could say that “going viral” being weaponized by both sides is very much something you might have read about in a scifi novel 20 years ago. Things are moving so fast because of modern technology that our culture and politics don’t know how to keep up.

This, in turn, causes everything to get fucked up and I have to worry about autocracy or civil war around 2024–2025.

These days, you hear a lot about how much our democracy is in peril. Add to this the fact that about 38% of the electorate doesn’t believe we’re a democracy in the first place and, well, lulz. As we approach the first step in our decent into the existential choice of autocracy or civil war, here is what we can expect when we finally are, in fact, no longer a democracy.

The Great Liberal Brain Drain
When it becomes clear that we’re no longer a democracy, probably at some point in late 2024 to early 2025, many, many, many wealthy liberals are simply going to leave the country. In fact, it could become so bad that the very people who crow about, “If you don’t like it, then leave” will be the very people who suddenly freak the fuck out when this very thing happens. We’re going to go from Fox screaming hysterically about scary brown people in caravans headed towards the border to them complaining constantly about how liberals are leaving the country. At first, of course, they will be gloat and be full of glee at this prospect….until it gets to the point that even they realize the economic impact of this happening and all they will do is complain about how wealthy liberals are fleeing to the south of France (or wherever). But make no mistake about it — it’s going to happen. The moment it’s clear we’re an autocracy, wealthy liberals will flee the United States en masse.

The Passage Of The Republican Agenda
At some point after 2025 when Republicans know the coast is clear, Republicans are going to abolish the Senate filibuster and cram threw their entire agenda that they’ve been hoping to pass the last few decades. ACA will be gone. Abortion will be banned in all the states. Social Society, Medicaid and Medicare will be gutted, “reformed” and privatized. Taxes for plutocrats will be lowered, while the poor will have to start to “pay their fair share.” There may be a lot of protesting, but, just like with Russia, ultimately…lulz, nothing matters.

Plutocrats Will End The Liberal Media
If what happened to Russia is any indication, at some point after 2025, we will begin to see MAGA-friendly plutocrats begin to buy and otherwise make huge investments in Disney, NBCUniversal, Paramount, etc to the point that in a subtle way the idea of there being a “liberal media” will begin to seem quite quaint. And what our new fascist overlords can’t get that way, they will get via brute force — they will threaten harsh regulations and broadcast companies licensing. I would suggest you keep an eye on things like The New York Times and PBS as well. If somehow, magically, The New York Times is sold to, say, Elon Musk and you look at PBS Newshour and is identical to Hannity then, well, America is an autocracy.

A Constitutional Convention
Now, this is where a lot of people who still believe in the system, believe that all we have to do is wait for the Justice Department to indict about two dozen people and we’re all going to be saved — I’m looking at you Mueller, She Wrote — will think I’m being “terribly negative.” But we’re already just a few states away from a Constitutional Convention being called and one of the long-term goals of the MAGA New Right is for this to happen to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” But given how such a convention would be populated — by people selected by state legislatures — it’s very, very, very easy to imagine that the moment it convenes, it will go rouge and decide to dramatically change the Constitution. The MAGA New Right agenda will be codified in the Constitution and things like birthright citizenship, a weak executive and God only knows what else will be gone. That will be the central political issue of the day at some point after we’re finally no longer a democracy. And all the bullshit gaslighting that Republicans have been using for decades will be used to get it all passed. And the center-Left is just too weak, so, lulz, we’re fucked.

The Weaponization of The ICE Infrastructure
As all of this is going on, the already existent ICE infrastructure will be weaponized so loudmouth crank drunks like me will find themselves in a lot of hot water. And, given that I, by nature, just can’t shut up, I fully expect that in the end I’m probably going to die in an ICE camp. Or something. Something bleak and dark.

Minority Report
There is another option. And that option is our autocracy will be a Very American Autocracy in that, relative to, say, Russia, it will be “light touch” — but still exist. Or it might be that our decent into a Russian-style autocracy will be so gradual after some initial gloating on the part of the MAGA New Right that we won’t really notice any changes at first. And this will happen because the center-Left in the United States is soooooo fucking weak and so wrapped up in what pronouns to use that the autocrat will simply go about his business and not really care about the “soft power” that the liberal elites might have. And, besides, the liberal elites won’t even live in the country anymore, so…lulz?

I write because I have to, not because I want to. And yet one constant thing I’ve experience since I started my current journey to writing not just one novel but six novels is how many people bitch and moan that people like me shouldn’t even be writing a novel in the first place.

It’s all very frustrating.

Usually, people who say things like “why don’t you just write a short story” aren’t very creative and generally are cocksuckers whose use cold, hard metrics for any endeavor that are in no way connect to the creative process.

They’re like parents who are always on the look out to find some practical use for their child’s aspirations, rather than just letting them dream until they, themselves figure out what they want to do with their lives. Fuck those people and fuck them for every time they make me feel bad working on a novel.

Jesus Christ.

I mean, I’m finished a first draft of a novel and am now transitioning to the second draft. I have no idea if it will sell, have no idea if I will even get an agent. But for me to be happy, I need to be writing — come what may.

So people who make very cogent arguments about why you should not write a novel can fucking suck it. Fucking cocksuckers. Not to sound too much like Matt Damon trying to sell you crypto, but no on every go anywhere in this world without taking a risk.

People who poo-poo the idea of writing a spec novel simply are not creative and have no creative impulse. I don’t want them in my life and I don’t feel any obligation to listen to them. And you shouldn’t either.

As long as you have the will, the creative spark and something to say — write that book. Write that novel. Do whatever you have to do to finish it. I’m not saying it won’t be a lot of work. I won’t say that you’ll actually sell it. But you’ll at least be content that you tried.

Anyone who makes you feel bad for being true to yourself, for being creative is a fucking cocksucker.

I read the huge Truman biography some time ago, and there’s passage where he recounts how at some point around the Korea War how Truman met Gen. MacArthur in the middle of the Pacific. Apparently, after Truman fired the general for wanting to nuke China, he mused that had they died around the time of that meeting each of their legacies would have been far, far different.

Another relevant anecdote is the very well known one about how Steve Jobs seduced John Sculley to leave Pepsi to join Apple. He said something along the lines of, “Do you want to continue to sell sugar water the rest of your life or do you want to change the world?”

So, with that in mind, let me ask Mike Pence a question, “Do you want to be joke or do you want to be a Great Man?” You can change your legacy from the guy with the fly on your head who almost got hanged by your own supporters to the Great American who saved 250 years of American democracy not once, but twice.

Pence is very conspicuous about being a man of God. I was raised in the church and I’m well aware of how important prayer is to people like him. As such, I would suggest to Pence that he take a long, long walk with the Good Lort to get some advice as to his next move.

Here’s where things stand with Pence at the moment. After doing the barest minimum necessary to keep American democracy alive, Pence is well on his way to being fading into political oblivion. Pence, as it stands, will be a joke to the center-Left and a traitor to the MAGA New Right.

And this is where the power of prayer comes in.

I totally disagree with 99% of what he believes politically — but I agree with his faith in American democracy. So much so, that it is very, very obvious that if Pence continues to have any hope of being POTUS one day, he has to change the question.

The question is no longer, “How do I win the Republican nomination?” but, rather, “Am I willing to risk switching parties to be part of a 2024 unity ticket?” The cold hard fact is — Mike Pence is never going to be POTUS if he remains a Republican. By saving American democracy, he has destroyed his political career as a Republican. To be a Republican now, by definition, means to be an autocratic fascist.

So, Pence has a very, very stark choice — drift into political oblivion and or have a greater-than-zero-sum chance at having a bust of him placed in the Capitol Rotunda at some point in the not-so-distant future.

All Pence has to do is do a lot of praying and testify on live TV, under oath before the January 6th Committee and explain what he saw from Election Day 2020 to Certification Day 2021. It might help if he told the public, on a personal level, what it felt like to have his own supporters scream “Hang Mike Pence.”

He would instantly become the Democratic front runner for 2024. The public’s perception of him would change instantly. And, what’s more, he would not have to change a single policy belief. All he would have to do is define himself as defender of American Democracy and be willing to run as part of a Unity Ticket with, maybe AOC as his veep.

Throw in some sort of pre-election power sharing agreement and the rest takes care of himself. Both sides of a very, very politically divided America would be EXTREMLY ANGRY at this arrangement, but for the 100,000 or so people across five swing states who decide American elections, such an arrangement would be catnip.

Independent swing voters — who really decide elections at this point — would love the idea that “both sides” were being represented under such an agremeemt.

Now, there are obvious risks.

One is, that this would be simply not be something that the American political system could process and Pence WOULDN’T be seen as the Democratic front runner as part of some sort of Unity Ticket. Biden is old, but he’s not dead. And he remains very popular within Democratic ranks.

But in 2024, America faces the existential choice of a MAGA Republican themed autocracy or a civil war. And, while Liz Cheney could also serve the purpose of Pence on a Unity Ticket, Pence is the big kahuna. He really could do something amazing and instantly change his legacy — simply by telling the truth.

I do not honestly believe any of this is going to happen. I mean, lulz. But it’s just so frustrating that a solution to the existential problem that faces America is right in front of Mike Pence and yet, even with a walk with the good Lort, he won’t do it.

I’ve started to think a lot about the potential economics of a Second American Civil War. On the face of it, my smart friend’s belief that I’m full of shit when it comes to believing we’re careening towards a civil war around 2025 is very valid. His dismissal of my fears on economic grounds make a lot of sense.

As long as plutocrats are making money, they don’t give a shit about how poor women in Red States can’t get an abortion.

And, yet, I struggle to accept this pat dismissal.

There are at least two reasons why I still think a Second American Civil War is still on the table for around 2025. The first reason is something that Republicans harp on all the time — the “woke” nature of Fortune 500 companies. As such, the case can be made that when the time comes, Woke Corporations will at least sit on their hands should Blue States get so angry with Red States that they leave the Union (or try to).

The other, bigger issue, is the continued bonkers radicalization of the MAGA New Right. If they were willing to simply turn Red States into a dystopian hellscape, then, yes, there wouldn’t be much economic reason Blue States to leave the Union.

And, yet, at its very core, MAGA’s vision is the total control of the entirety of the United States — Red and Blue. And that’s when the existential choice of autocracy or civil war happens for Blue States.

When it becomes clear that all three branches of the Federal government are permanently out to get Blue States and have a very radical agenda they want to implement nationally, there is every reason to believe Blue States may begin to leave the Union and we have a massive, catastrophic Second American Civil War that lasts years and involves WMD.

It probably won’t have a tidy endgame and it will totally redraw the political geography of North America. We could end up with The United States of Canada and Trumplandia and that would be that.

I can’t predict the future. I don’t have any reveled truth, but I’m not quite prepared to dismiss the possibility of a Second American Civil War entirely. But Blue States definitely have to decide one way or another — will they “bend a knee” to radical MAGA themed autocracy, or will they fight for what they believe in?

I dunno. Could go either way.

Everything is reduced down to Cancel Culture, Wokeness or Critical Race Theory. Throw in a dollop of “Lock Her Up” and “Build The Wall” and you have your explanation as to why many Republican politicians seem to be speaking a language other than English. They want to throw in as many hot keywords into any thing they say in hopes that the MAGA New Right talking heads of Fox News primetime will use whatever they say as a soundbite.

Some reasons why we might have a civil war.

1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
   Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
   It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
3. Trump 2024
   Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 — early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
4. Steve K Bannon.
   Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
5. Extreme negative polarization
   We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
6. A lack of shared values
   As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
   It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024–2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And there’s another thing to take into consideration going into this scenario — Republicans no longer believe in democracy. They want to make it as difficult to vote as possible to solve a voter fraud problem that doesn’t exist. And if that doesn’t work, they want to gerrymander things to such an extent that, lulz, suck to be you, non MAGA person.

With all of that in mind, let’s travel to the day after tomorrow. It’s now late 2024 and Donald Trump is facing off against A Democrat. Let me be clear — given that the United States is now an anocracy and not a democracy, it’s very, very possible that Trump wins outright in 2024. He will have no need for the dirty tricks of Roger Stone or the “administrative coup” of Steve K. Bannon. He wins and we all wait around to see how and when is veep ultimately becomes America’s first autocrat.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s propose that somehow, the election is not what I expect and it’s actually competitive. A Democrat wins the popular vote about the same as Biden did in 2020. Then what? What happens?

Well, I think we face a civil war. Let me explain.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

How’s that for a New World Order.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Any mention of Hitler is loaded. And, yet, why is that? The answer, of course, is how many people directly died because of him. But there was a time, in the early days of his rule, when he was seen as very much a Trumpian figure. It was only after the deaths began to mount that he attained his modern status as the human personification of evil.

While I’m sure there are a dozen historians quietly working on their Hitler-Trump dual biographies right now, the comparisons between Hitler and Trump are now growing alarmingly similar. But before we go any further, we have to remember that Trump, at least for the moment, is nothing more than criminally incompetent autocrat. It could be that for a variety of reasons, he’ll linger in the Germany 1933–1934 era and that will be that. Or put another way, he may simply hope to be something akin to Russia’s Putin, but not attain the more direct, vicious and malvalent control that Hitler got.

But the profound thing the rise of Trump potentially gives us is direct insight into the rise of Hitler. And, really, the issue at this point is does Trump, after he steals the 2020 election, see it as his 1933 election and pass some sort of enabling acts as quickly as possible after his own Reichstag Fire. I’m thinking yes — probably in the form of a major domestic terrorism event. He’ll demand a Constitutional Convention and that will be that.

Yet, again, would Trump at that point go the Putin route, or would he lurch towards something a more Nazi? This is such a complicated question for a number of reasons. One is, why? He has made no secret of his obsession with and fidelity to Putin. That type of control — not Nazi ideological control — definitely seems is personal agenda for the United States as this point.

So, to that extent, one would be on safe ground to call me hysterical for claiming Trump is an American Hitler.

And, yet.

There are a few things that give one pause for thought. It’s possible that Trumplandia will, in itself, be a thing that historians compare other events to in the future. If Trump did go the Nazi route, the more direct political movement MAGA would go the direction of is the Khmer Rouge. Instead of trying to take over the world like Hitler and the Nazis, Trump and MAGA would implode the United States.

Everything exists — right now — for Trump to begin rounding up “liberals” and begin putting them in the already-existing ICE camp infrastructure. The American center-Left (read: everyone not MAGA) is so weak, so ineffectual, that Trump again the “total control” that Roger Stone suggests he make a grab for.

The reason I say this is how else was all of this going to end? The absolute fidelity of the MAGA-Qanon base and the complete complicity of the entire Republican Party as a result give Trump such power that he may — simply because he’s a moron — stumble into a Pol Pot type situation without even really meaning to. It’s not like Trump has any ideology at all other than how own personal aggrandizement and increase of wealth. It just so happens that the venn diagram of what he wants on a personal level and what his base wants is identical and, as such, he really doesn’t have to do anything but just be himself.

Do I really think Trump is going to ultimately be seen not as an American Hitler but as more an American Pol Pot? I honestly don’t know. He definitely has that option before him. I think he just wants to be an American Putin. And, yet, Putin doesn’t have Red Hats at his beck and call. Putin has a lot of power, yes, but he also has a lot of self-control. He uses the levers of state to do his bidding. While it’s extremely easy to see MAGA Red Hats turning into American Brown Shirts then American Khmer Rouge. What I mean by that is, it’s easy to imagine MAGA-Qanon Red Hats radicalizing once Trump consolidates power after stealing the 2020 election. Trump tells the authorities to stand down and he just sit back and watches the Red Hats do his bidding. It would give him plausible deniability. The whole thing might get out of his control, but he’s so devoid of empathy I doubt he would really care all that much.

At this point, let’s do a direct comparison of Trump and Hitler. First, both Hitler and Trump are very, very lazy. On a personal level, both men don’t drink. (Or at least say they don’t.) Hitler only got married late in life, while Trump has been married three times. Hitler had a very specific ideology, while Trump is completely devoid of an ideology. Hitler was very sane, while Trump’s mental acuity definitely seems to be wanining.

I could very much see a situation where Trump’s downfall ultimately comes from himself. He grows so extreme — or allows the MAGA-Qanon Red Hats to grow so extreme — that a lot of center-Right-but-not-MAGA people (the bedrock of America) freak out. They get radicalized enough to bring House Trump down. Of course, this would suck massively on a macro political history scale.

The majority of Americans, by nature, are extremely docile and politically apathetic. So, Trump could very well found House Trump and let the country drift, over the next 20 years or so, towards being — at least on a political level — an American interpretation of Putin’s Russia. This seems a very real possibility.

And, in the near term, the issue is how difficult is it for Trump to steal the 2020 election? The more difficult it is, the more likely what his family might attain gradually over 20 years, he — and Barr — will try to grab over about three months. This would be so shocking to the average American that instead of consolidating power peacefully, the United States would implode into civil war, revolution or something akin to both at the same time.

This sounds crazy, but, then major historical events when you live through them are nothing more than a shocking series of random events to the average person. It’s not until long after the fact that historians, in an attempt to explain what happened to successor generations given those events value and an a narrative so as to make them easier to explain and understand.

But I continue to believe because of the Durham Investigation, the false promise of a COVID19 vaccine and Trump’s likely quid pro quo with the Russians (he removes 1/3 of our troops from Germany, they hack directly into our election systems), that all of this is going to be a dud. We’ll know election night that Trump has “won.” We’ll continue to drift into a more Putin’s Russian and less Hitler’s Germany and that will be that.

I absolutely believe that.

I guess I’m just a little nervous that Trump is such a fucking self-own artist that even with that easy-”win” he will somehow manage to fuck us all over because the MAGA-Qanon Red Hats see his victory as a green light to establish a white ethno-state NOW and not gradually over the next generation.

That’s when it’s at least possible that the American Ancien Regime will be washed away and a New Order will be established. What that looks like is anyone’s guess. It could be a Second American Republic or it could be Gileade. Which one it is, we decide.

I may just be a “delusional jerk with a good heart,” but I can read. It seems as though we have to stop assuming some vague, scary number as to the coming test results and think about what we might learn in concreat terms. It appears as though COVID19 has been in the United States since at least mid-January. Apparently, when an outbreak gets bad enough that you notice it, it begins to double in the 6 day — 12 day time frame.

Something about the outbreaks in Iran and Italy are different than, say, the outbreak in South Korea. The Italy outbreak seems to be spreading like wildfire. The Iranian outbreak seems to be more potent, maybe. I have no idea what I’m talking about, but I’m simply telling what appears to be true. If what I’m noticing isn’t true, it’s not, like, wilful disinformation on my part, for Christ’s sake.

Anyway, the point is, the States appears to all the slight variations of COVID19 that are floating around the globe. So, I would suggest that maybe things might get A LOT worse than we expect right now. Given how mobile the American population is, the fact that nursing homes are serving as “national superspreaders” AND criminally incompetence the Trump Administration is about doing anything to stop the spread of the virus, I suggest we may have as many as 100,000 verified cases in two weeks.

Remember, Northern Italy and Iran are pretty much imploading as we speak and they’re actively working to halt the virus’ spread. We, meanwhile, are doing jack shit. In fact, the only real metric we are going to have in the near term is, well, people getting sick.

One thing to remember — there haven’t been any reports of cases within the penal system — or ICE camps, for that matter. Once we do, things may get far worse in the public’s eyes. Also, WuFlop hasn’t been recorded in the United States yet. And that, in itself, will freak everyone out. Add to this The Gray Plague, and you have something of a historic disaster on your hands. At some point, you may have to simply do triage. What can you keep functioning so you can save lives?

I suspect that the even that would kick off the actual long-term crisis of this pandemic would be a number of famous — and powerful — elderly people dropping dead in quick succession. That would definitely focus the population’s mind. And, also, remember, another big issue at the start of all of this –will Trump implode or explode mentally as it grows ever-more apparent that he’s going to going to be able to weasel his way out of his. If his absolute need to win at any costs slams against the absolute realization that he may have to, at last, face some sort of accountability, well, THAT will be interesting.

Honestly, I’ll just be glad if the human race makes it out alive at that point. Maybe that’s why we’ve yet to find any aliens — they all inevitably elect alien unhinged Right Wing Twitter Trolls who blow their planets up.

I wish I was joking.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Only once in the post-WWII era has living through history lived up to its hype — the fall of Communism. That was kind of “fun-interesting.” Few people got hurt and it was a made-for-TV moment of hope that happened out of nowhere.

And now we have a potential pandemic in the guise of the WuFlu outbreak in Wuhan. I’m seeing a lot of “giddy” people wallowing in fear porn about the prospect of, well, the end of the world and these people are, to say the least, rather misguided. There’s a reason why the phrase, “May you live in interesting times” is a curse. Living through history sucks. When history wakes up like during, say, a war, it sucks on an human, practical level. The narrative of the history books can be extremely disturbing as it’s happening in real time.

Hence, if whatever is stopping people dying from WuFlu changed rather abruptly, it would suck. It would not be fun. It would be an process, not an event that would cause a huge amount of global instability for months with aftershocks that would last years and decades. It would be referred by future generations the same way WWII has been referred to for the last three generations: the moment when everything changed.

We’re just not prepared on a practical level for something that’s not a day-long event like 9/11 was, but a process that is measured in days, weeks, and months. Empires of various sorts — political, technological and otherwise — would rise and fall by the time it was all over with.

My guess is if the worst happened — which I neither believe will happen, nor want — things like Hollywood and the newspaper industry would collapse and we’d have a few years of us all struggling to figure out what just happened and how we were going to adjust to the new normal where VR, AR, MX and everything Elon Musk has been working on suddenly were the core part of life.

Anyway, as I keep saying, something dramatic has to happen. It’s out of our hands, too. WuFlu is all over the world at this point. For some reason, only people in Wuhan itself have a real risk of actually dying. If you’re outside of that city, then, you may get sick from WuFlu, but your chances of actually dying from it are actually pretty low.

What — to date — has made WuFlu different in Wuhan remains a mystery to me. But to go back to the point — while I would be concerned and informed about WuFlu, it’s looking like it’s going to fizzle out by April as predicted.

If it doesn’t it’s going to suck. The basics of life may be put in danger for months and existing governments of major nations like China, Russia and, yes, even the United States may fall to be replaced by new, unexpected styles of government altogether. I wouldn’t sleep on the idea that the United States is going have a revolution — civil war — division in months, not decades, if there was a pandemic. America’s political system is extremely taunt and we’re already in the Fourth Reich. A pandemic might push us into something far darker than even that.

The point is, please refrain from indulging in fear porn on Twitter. This is real. This is real life — and death.