Antonio Conte wants to bring in a new left-footed centre back to play on the left hand side of his favoured three-man backline at Tottenham Hotspur. The club has been pursuing Inter Milan’s Alessandro Bastoni as he is a player the Spurs head coach has previously managed during his time at Inter. The player is very familiar with the system that Conte deploys on field. His former team mate Ivan Perišić joining Tottenham serves as an additional incentive for the Italian to rekindle his successful partnership with the Croatian on left hand side of the pitch. However, Bastoni and his agent have recently indicated that the player wants to remain at the club he supports since childhood, lowering the probability of the transfer.

Tottenham’s Managing Director of Football, Fabio Paratici is known to always have multiple players shortlisted for each position that he looks to fill. So there have been few other players that have also been linked with the club. In this post I thought of giving him and his team a helping hand through a data-driven approach to shortlist some potential alternatives to the Italian.

The Potential Alternatives

I collected the data of all the defenders in top five European leagues (English Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1) for the 2021–22 season from fbref.com and then used an algorithm to find statistically similar players to Alessandro Bastoni. From the list, I then further shortlisted players who are left-footed and play as centre backs. I then compared their stats with Bastoni to arrive at potential targets for the club. While considering the relevant stats, I adjusted them for possession (wherever applicable) to make a fair comparison between the players. The final list features some of the players already linked to the club and some relatively less popular names. Let’s look at the targets.

1. Joško Gvardiol, Age - 20, Height - 6'1", Current Club - RB Leipzig: The highly-rated young Croatian plays on the left hand side of a back three for his club. The player has already been linked with Spurs as an alternative to Bastoni.

Gvardiol’s defensive stats like Tackles Won (TklW%), Successful Tackles Against Dribbles (DribblesTklSucc%), Aerial Duels Won, Possession Adjusted Tackles per 90 minutes (PAdjTkl/90), Possession Adjusted Clearances per 90 minutes (PAdjClearances/90) are very much comparable to Bastoni. The Croatian fares better in Interceptions, Recoveries and Blocks per 90 minutes than the Italian. He is also more involved in the attacking phase as indicated by higher touches, progressive carries, progressive passes and through balls per 90 minutes. However his passing success rates (TotalPassComp%, LongPassComp%) are slightly lower than Bastoni which may be a result of his higher involvement in starting attacks.

Looking at the positions he engages in defensive actions and areas he launches progressive passes from also demonstrate his similarity to the Inter Milan man. Gvardiol comes across as an apt alternative to Bastoni based on these data points. However he is valued over €80 million by his club as he has a contract till 2026, making him a nearly impossible target unless Spurs can negotiate really well to lower his asking price.

2. Pau Torres, Age - 25, Height - 6'3", Current Club - Villarreal: The Spanish international has been linked with Spurs since last season. He is of a very similar profile both physically and stylistically to the Italian international and hence has been considered an an alternative for the latter.

Torres comes across as a cautious and reactive defender compared to Bastoni as he has lower share of tackles per 90 minutes and higher share of clearances. Also his tackle success rate is considerably lower. His passing success rates are quite close though and he has higher numbers for progressive passes and progressive carries indicating his higher contribution to attacking play.

The areas where Torres engages in defensive actions is a further indicator of his reactive defending as lot of the actions take place inside his own penalty box. His passing locations are more central which may be attributed to playing in a four man defence in most occasions. But adapting to a three man backline should not be a problem for him as he is an experienced defender. However, he too would not come cheap, having a price tag of upwards of €50 million. Manchester United also being interested in him plus the player preferring the move to the Red Devils makes things further complicated.

3. Sven Botman, Age - 22, Height - 6'4", Current Club - Lille: The Dutch centre back is another player Spurs have been linked with in the past and is amongst the shortlist of alternatives to Bastoni.

Botman’s defensive stats such as tackles won and pass completion stats are comparable to Bastoni and proportion of aerial duels won is higher than the Italian which means he would be an asset while defending and attacking set pieces. His lower numbers for tackles and interceptions per 90 and higher numbers for blocks and clearances give an indication that he likes to wait for the opponent to come at him than win the ball proactively. His touches, progressive passes and carries are also lower which means his team is less reliant on him in building up attacks.

The defensive actions heatmap of the Dutch man is another indicator of his reactive style of defending. Botman’s passing locations are more central as he mostly plays in a four at the back system and he may need a bit of training to adapt to Conte’s system. Nevertheless, he would also be a decent alternative to Bastoni if Spurs miss out on the Italian. But the club needs to thwart competition from the likes of Newcastle and match Lille’s asking price of around €35 million to sign the player.

Let us now move on to some of the less familiar names and ones who may not have been linked with the club so far.

4. Benoît Badiashile, Age - 21, Height - 6'4", Current Club - Monaco: The France U21 international is a player Tottenham can look at in case they are not able to land any of their priority targets.

The tall RC Lens centre back has very similar stats to Bastoni. His passing success rates and progressive passing are very similar, as are most of his defensive stats like tackles won, success against dribbles, tackles and blocks per 90 minutes.

The defensive duel areas and the progressive passing areas indicated by the above heatmaps also showcase his similarities to Bastoni. He has mostly played in a back four and hence his passing areas are a little more central than the Italian. But he should be able to slot in a three man defence that Conte employs with pre-season training under the Spurs head coach. He would also not come very cheap though as Monaco value him over €45 million and Spurs may also face competition from Manchester United who are seemingly interested in him.

5. Obite Evan N’Dicka, Age - 22, Height - 6'3", Current Club - Eintracht Frankfurt: The French defender plies his trade in the Bundesliga and has been with his current club since 2018. He is also young, tall and left footed and therefore of a similar mould as Bastoni.

Most of his defensive stats are very similar to that of Bastoni and his tackles and interceptions per 90 indicate that his defensive style is proactive and similar to the Italian. However his passing is slightly less accurate and he seems to be less involved in attacking duties as his touches, progressive passes and carries are significantly lower than Bastoni. But with a pre-season under Conte he can surely be trained to improve his abilities on the ball.

N’Dicka has experience playing in a back three and his defensive and passing areas are quite similar to that of Bastoni as seen in the heatmaps above. So based on the data he seems to be a candidate who can perform a similar role that the Spurs manger is looking for. He would definitely be a relatively cheaper option than most of the other candidates in the list above as his contract runs out next season and could be available for around €20 million. But Manchester United and Newcastle are also interested in the player and hence Spurs need to move fast if they want to sign the player.

6. Facundo Medina, Age - 23, Height - 6'0", Current Club - Lens: The young Argentine is another prospective candidate who Spurs could look at in case they fail to land other targets.

Most of Medina’s defensive, passing and attacking involvement stats are almost identical or even better than Bastoni which means he could be a decent alternative to Conte’s top target. His passing is accurate and progressive and he also carries the ball forward more often than Bastoni. The only drawback could be his ability in the air as he has won lesser aerial duels which maybe attributed to his shorter frame than the Inter man.

Medina has experience in playing in a back three at his current club and his defensive and passing areas are also quite similar to that of Bastoni. He has one of the lowest valuations among the players in this list (€11 million as per transfermarkt) and hence could turn out to be a value for money acquisition if Spurs were to sign him.

Conclusion

There are quite a few potential alternate targets available in the market in case Tottenham is not able to land their first choice target, Alessandro Bastoni. But the club needs to move fast as there are plenty of clubs including Premier League rivals, Manchester United, Chelsea and Newcastle who are on the lookout for defensive reinforcements. My recommendation to the club would be Benoît Badiashile as he has a very similar physical profile as well as very similar stats as those of Alessandro Bastoni. He has led the U21 France national side and his leadership experience can come in handy in helping organize the defence alongside Eric Dier. Let’s wait and see whom the club ends up signing this summer.

Tottenham Hotspur pulled off a miracle of sorts under Antonio Conte to grab a Champions League spot after an inconsistent start to the season, that saw the club sack previous manager, Nuno Espírito Santo in less than five months post his appointment. The turnaround under the current coach has been largely due to his role in transforming the defence which saw the club keep 13 clean sheets in his 28 games in charge in the Premier League. While this has been a great achievement itself, the coach has made it clear that he wants to compete for trophies and not just a top 4 position in the league. To match the coach’s ambition, the club needs to undergo a major overhaul of the squad and bring in a significant number of new faces who fit into his philosophy. It has been widely reported that Conte is looking to bring in as many as 6–7 players for different positions and specific roles to have a squad capable of competing with the best.

Looking To Solidify The Backline Further

One of the positions identified is a left footed centre back to play on the left hand side of his favoured back three formation. The role was fulfilled in the past season by Ben Davies, who did a commendable job by putting his body on the line to keep out attacks and also help progress attacks from the back. While he deserves a lot of credit for being an unsung hero, the coach desires an upgrade or even a back up considering he is the only left footed player in the senior squad, capable of playing as a centre back. As the result there have been plenty of reports linking Inter Milan’s young sensation, Alessandro Bastoni with Spurs.

The Key Target

Bastoni has previously played under Conte and the duo have won the Scudetto with Inter Milan in 2020–21. Conte has been keen on getting him to Spurs to recreate a successful partnership not only between the two but also with another new signing, Ivan Perišić who was also a key member in Inter’s title winning squad. But it is not just a matter of familiarity that the coach is looking for, but also a specific set of attributes and abilities Bastoni possesses which fits into the way Conte likes his team to play. To understand this let us look at how Conte used his left centre back Ben Davies last season.

The Role In The Team

Ben Davies has been used in a role which in modern football is often called as a Wide Centre Back. In this role he was tasked to stay wider than a normal centre back to occupy the space left behind by the left wing back, who would often stay higher up the pitch. In addition to this he was tasked with bringing the ball out of the back and also make overlapping and underlapping runs towards the attacking third to often overload the side of the pitch and provide an extra passing option. This can be seen in the images below.

He’s also had a key role to play while defending by covering for the marauding wing back and stopping or delaying opposition wide players from getting into dangerous positions. Davies’ experience as a full back has definitely helped him to be comfortable defending the wide areas. The below images demonstrate his defensive positioning against Salah to limit the threat of the winger.

But Then Why Bastoni?

Bastoni is left footed and has plenty of experience in playing on the left side of a back three and has also played in a similar role at Inter as that of Davies at Spurs last season. He is comfortable playing as a Wide Centre Back and the images below show his movement that helps in the attacking phase of play.

While Davies has done well in the role as mentioned earlier, the reason for prioritizing Bastoni’s signing can be seen from the stats below.

Bastoni had far better stats for defensive actions in the 2021–22 season than Davies. He won higher percentage of tackles (TklW%) and was in the 91st percentile in his league while Davies had a lower number and was below the 10th percentile in Premier League (PL) among defenders. He was also better at one on ones as he had a better success rate of 57.7% in stopping dribbles (DribblesTklSucc%) compared to 35.3% by Ben Davies. Bastoni is also more of a front foot defender and made 2.25 tackles per 90 minutes placing him closer to the top 80th percentile in Serie A. In contrast, Davies made 1.5 tackles per 90 minutes and ranked closer to the 30th percentile among defenders in the PL. The Italian is also better passer than the Welshman as indicated by the former’s superior Total Pass Completion (TotalPassComp%) rate of 89% and Long Pass Completion (LongPassComp%) rate of 78.3% compared to 85.9% and 61.3% respectively of the latter. The stats indicate that Bastoni may be an upgrade over the ever so reliable Davies. Bastoni (23) is much younger than Davies (29) and can hence serve the club for many years in the future. The Inter man is also taller (6'3") than the Spurs defender (5'11") and thus could be a more imposing presence in both the boxes.

Complicated Deal

The young Italian international is highly rated by his club and is valued upwards of €60 million which would make him a big money signing for Tottenham. However money may not be the big problem this time around as a result of the fund injection by the owners. The deal is difficult as the player and his agent have clearly indicated the player’s intention to remain at Inter, the club he supports since his childhood. This has reduced the probability of the deal happening. The club however needs to balance its books and as a result, may have to let go of some of their high value assets. Thus still keeping a marginal hope alive for the Spurs faithful to see him don the Lilywhites’ shirt this season. Only time will tell how the saga unfolds!

In the last game (Qualifier 1) we saw Gujarat Titans booking their slot for the final as Rajasthan Royals’ top wicket taker, Yuzvendra Chahal got taken apart by David Miller. It was one of the matchups to look out for in the game. Now I bring to you some of the potential key battles from Eliminator. Let us start off with RCB’s big guns.

RCB’s captain Faf du Plessis has been their stand-out performer with the bat even while their talisman Virat Kohli has been on a lean patch. He has been their top scorer giving them good starts at the top of the order. LSG needs to find ways to stop him. Faf has been somewhat troubled by left armers. LSG should look to use Mohsin and Krunal who have troubled lot of right-handed batsmen by bowling economically and picking wickets against them, to trouble the RCB opener.

New big money signing, Hasaranga has played a massive role in RCB’s run to the playoffs and is in the hunt for the purple cap in his first full season in the tournament. LSG needs to plot ways to counter him. Left handers have found it easier to score off him and LSG needs two of their lefties, QDK at the top order and Krunal in the middle to try and get the better of him in different phases of the game.

Let us move on to the dynamic duo of LSG.

KL Rahul continues to be one of the most consistent batsmen the IPL has ever seen, and he is chasing the orange cap once again. He has found an able ally at the top of the order in Quinton de Kock who is also competing with him for the orange cap as a result of his swashbuckling performances this season. RCB have a tough task in hand and have to find innovative ways to deal with them. One of them would be to use Maxwell in the powerplay against them, as both batsmen have had relatively subdued performances against right arm off spinners. Shahbaz Ahmed, although expensive so far, can also be used against KL Rahul as he has found it slightly difficult to score against left arm orthodox spinners. Harshal could be another answer to de Kock as he has picked up wickets of left handers and QDK has gotten out to right arm medium pacers a number of times in the tournament.

Let us see which of these players have the last laugh and help take their team within one game of booking a berth for the final.

The race to the 2022 IPL title begins today. So I wanted to bring together an analysis of the expected key battles from Qualifier 1. Let us begin with the trump cards of Rajasthan Royals.

Jos Buttler is the current orange cap holder with over 600 runs and strike rate of close to 150. Gujarat Titans have to find a way to keep him quiet. Fortunately, they have just the right weapons in their arsenal. Leg spinners have managed to contain him and who better than Rashid Khan to do this job? Left arm orthodox bowlers have also kept a check on him and GT have Sai Kishore who can also support Rashid to stop Buttler.

If the orange cap holder was not enough to deal with, GT have to find a way to counter the current purple cap holder Yuzvendra Chahal. However, there may be a chink in the armour GT can look to exploit. Chahal is not as threatening against left handers and so Gujarat can look to use Tewatia against him in the middle overs. Miller is another left hander who has not had it easy against leggies so far, but can also try to put that in the past and attempt to take Chalal to the sword. They also have Gill at the top of the order who although a right hander, has a good record against leg spinners this season.

Now let us move on to the key men of GT.

Captain, Hardik Pandya is Gujarat’s top scorer with 400+ runs at a strike rate of over 130. However, he has found it difficult to score against leg spinners and left arm pacers and RR have the perfect candidates to exploit this in Chahal and Boult. Chahal has troubled right handers and most of his wickets have come against them while Boult has always troubled batsmen with his swing and these two could combine to make life difficult for GT’s captain.

Rashid Khan has been bamboozling batsmen for years in the IPL and RR have to find a way to handle him. Left handers have found it slightly easier to counter him this season and RR thankfully have 3 of them in their line-up including Jaiswal, Padikkal and Hetmyer. Jaiswal has been most comfortable against leggies this season and can be used to attack Rashid. The RR captain Samson also has been scoring briskly against leg spinners this season and he could be another answer to Rashid’s trickery.

Let us see which of these key men have an upper hand today and help their team secure a place in the final.

Bargain Pick Of The Auction?

Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) went into the auction with a budget lower than 6 other franchises and looking for a player who could lead the side in forthcoming seasons. It cost them over a quarter of the entire remaining budget to bring in the ex-Delhi Capitals captain, Shreyas Iyer, for a whopping sum of INR 12.25 crores. After loosening the purse strings for such a big buy, the team had to look out for bargains to fill up some of the key remaining slots. One such deal was that of Alex Hales, who was signed at the base price of INR 1.5 crores towards the later stages of the auction. Considering the amounts spent by franchises on players like Liam Livingstone, Nicholas Pooran, Shimron Hetmyer and Tim David, this seems like a bargain pick going by Hales’s form and record.

An Overlooked Player

Hales is a player who has often been overlooked by IPL franchises as he remained unpicked in auctions since 2019. His only stint in the IPL has been as a replacement for David Warner in 2018, after the Australian was banned due to the ball tampering controversy. Hales himself has had disciplinary issues off the field, being involved in a nightclub brawl in September 2018 and testing positive for the use of recreational drugs in April 2019. The latter incident cost him a place in England’s preliminary world cup squad. These incidents may have caused franchises to be wary of picking him. On field however, he has been a different person, scoring runs wherever he has played.

Prolific And Explosive Opener

Alex Hales has been one of the most prolific opening batsmen in T20 Leagues since 2018. He has the highest runs as an opener between 2018 to 2021. Hales has the highest strike rate in the powerplay, second highest strike rate overall, and 4th highest percentage of runs scored in boundaries amongst the 10 top scoring openers during this period, indicating his ability to dominate opposition attacks. He averages 33.64 and gets a 30-plus score every 2.18 innings which shows he is a consistent performer and not just an aggressive, hit or miss player.

Consistent In All Conditions

Hales has been consistent across leagues in different countries as well. He averages 30-plus in T20 Blast, BBL, PSL and BPL which shows he has the ability to play in bouncy, fast tracks as well as slow, spinner friendly sub-continent conditions. He has an average of close to 25 from only a handful of IPL games (6 innings) that he has played, showcasing his potential to perform well in the league.

Proven Match Winner

Alex Hales has been a proven match-winner with 17 man-of-the-match awards in 111 innings at the rate of one every 6.5 games. Additionally, his teams win 64 percent of games when he scores 30 or more runs, with that number increasing to 73 percent when he scores 50 or more, a score he reaches every 4.44 innings. He has 3 hundreds since 2018 with only Australians, Aaron Finch and Shane Watson coming close with 4 and 3 centuries respectively. Just over half of his runs have come in the second innings which means he is an asset not only while chasing targets but setting them as well.

Impact For The Knights

Hales has scored 63 percent of his runs in the powerplay phase. All these stats bode well for KKR in the coming season. They can look to leverage his services in taking advantage of the powerplay and getting the team off to flying starts. More often that not teams that do well in the powerplay end up on the winning side. Being right-handed he can also act as a perfect foil to the left-handed Venkatesh Iyer and create problems for the opposition bowlers by disrupting their line and length. Hales’s attacking prowess can also let Iyer play without scoreboard pressure and focus on building a solid foundation for the rest of the batsmen.

These stats and the potential impact to the team suggest that KKR may have indeed pulled off a coup by signing the experienced and explosive Alex Hales for just the base price of INR 1.5 crores.

Tottenham Hotspur has had a turbulent start to the season which saw a head coach sacked after only four months in charge. The root of the problem to a large extent has been the team’s inability to find the back of the opposition net with regularity. The club sits 9th on the Premier League table after 11 games played, having scored 9 goals, with only bottom placed Norwich scoring fewer.

Much of the issues plaguing the club has been attributed to the poor run of form of their top marksman, Harry Kane. The club’s top scorer for the past 7 seasons has had an extremely uncharacteristic start to the current season, with only one league goal to his name so far. This has left many pundits and fans wondering whether the summer transfer saga had an effect on the player’s motivation. Some may have even started wondering if the ever-so-consistent goal scorer has finally lost his mojo? Let’s try to find the answer to the question through data.

What Is Going On With Kane?

Harry Kane has been one of the most prolific goal scorers over the last 5 seasons in the Premier League and only the electric Mohamed Salah has outscored him during this period. The Spurs’ striker scored an average of 22 goals a season between 2017–18 and 2020–21.

Kane has historically had slow starts to seasons, having gone over 1,000 minutes without scoring in the month of August earlier and with over two-thirds of the season still to play, the doubts over such a consistent performer may seem a bit rushed and even unfair. Nevertheless, this has been one of his slowest ever starts in the Premier League, which calls for some scrutiny. So what could be the reasons for such a slow start to 2021? Lets start by looking at his positions on the pitch.

The heatmaps above show Kane’s positions on the pitch each season starting from 2017–18 to the 11 games so far this season. While 2021–22 season has far less data points, one can see that he has barely ventured into the opposition penalty box compared to the previous seasons. Now lets see in which areas of the pitch he had most touches of the ball.

The second heatmap shows which third of the pitch has Harry been taking most of the touches in the past few seasons. It is clear from this that in the previous two and the current season, Kane has had much more touches in the middle third of the pitch than the attacking third. It is in stark contrast to 2017–18 and 2018–19 where he had a lot of touches in the attacking areas. Now this can be attributed to the tactics employed by the different head coaches that he played under during these seasons.

Mauricio Pochettino who managed the club during 2017–18 and part of 2018–19, preferred Kane to be the final target of the team’s attacking play which explains the high amount of touches in the attacking third under him. His successor, José Mourinho recognized Kane’s incredible vision and range of passing and preferred him to be more involved in the build up play owing to lack of creative players in the squad. Hence Kane dropped deep into the middle third to take possession of the ball which can be seen from the touches maps for 2019–20 and 2020–21. The move seemed to be a masterstroke as Kane won both the ‘Golden Boot’ as well as the ‘Playmaker of the Season’ awards last season. This season, Nuno Espírito Santo tried to follow a similar philosophy as José with an aim to replicate the performances from the striker, instructing Kane to continue dropping deep to receive the ball. However this is where the problems started and potentially brought about his downfall, as the forward has not been able to repeat the success from last season. The two stats that stand out when comparing this season with the last, are his touches and shots per 90 minutes. Touches per 90 has been lower than last season indicating less involvement in the games, in spite of dropping deep to help create chances. The shots per 90 has also been significantly lower than last season which can be linked to his poor scoring returns. After all a striker has to take shots to score!

Let’s now compare Kane’s goal scoring records with expected goals (xG) and shooting accuracy for 5 seasons including the current one.

The above graph shows that Kane has been consistently outperforming his xG for previous 4 seasons, showcasing what a clinical finisher he has been for his club. Although the data points are limited for this season as only 11 games have been played so far, we see that Kane has been slightly underperforming his xG. However, he has been hitting the target with more than half of his shots, better than previous seasons, indicating that it is not a question of decline in ability. The reason for lack of goals could be the shots ending up too close to the keeper or keepers making good saves or even due to the location of the shots being taken from. Let’s delve a bit deep into this.

The image above shows the distribution of locations across the pitch Kane has been taking shots from for the last few seasons. It shows that Kane has taken a large proportion of shots from outside the box this season compared to previous seasons. In previous seasons, nearly two thirds of the shots were taken from inside the 18 yard and six yard box. When we look at this in conjunction with the positional heat maps and the touch maps we can understand that Kane has been forced to shoot from outside the box as he has not been able to penetrate the opposition box often this season. So could this be a fault of Kane’s own movement and positioning or is there something else? Let’s find out.

This chart shows shots taken by Kane in conjunction with progressive passes received and his touches in the opposition penalty box per 90 minutes each season. We see here that the progressive passes received and touches in the opposition box are significantly lower this season compared to previous seasons. As a result he has had far less opportunities to shoot this season. Even last season where he started dropping deeper to dictate play, his stats were better. So could it be a case of lack of supply to Spurs’ star man, that is limiting his output? Let’s try to find out if that is the case.

What Role Does The Club Have?

Harry Kane has played under 5 different managers in the last 5 seasons including this one (only two games played under the 5th one). Each manager had different philosophies and tactics based on which they set up the team. The graph below depicts key passing stats for Spurs and demonstrates the difference in approach under each coach.

Pochettino (2017–19) set his team up for a high tempo, possession-based, attacking approach to games, while his successor Mourinho (2019–21) preferred a pragmatic, counter attacking based approach. Ryan Mason (2020–21) managed only a handful of games and followed a balanced approach to games, while the recently sacked Nuno (2021–22) adopted a similar style to Mourinho. We can see a decline in most of the key passing stats showcasing a shift from expansive, attacking football to a more measured, reactive approach. While there can be differences in styles of play, the end objective remains the same — score goals to win games and to score goals a team needs to create chances for their attacking players. That is where two of the stats from this season stand out — Progressive Passes and Shot Creating Passes per 90 minutes. If the team does not progress the ball as often or create enough shooting chances, it is unfair to expect a high output from their forward. The reduction in attacking third passes, penalty box passes and crosses further showcase the limited supply to Kane and explain the reasons behind him dropping deep to be more involved in the game. As a result he has been in goal scoring positions far less this season leading to disappointing returns.

There has been a lot of talk about Kane’s lack of goals arising out of lowered effort due to disappointment over a failed transfer move. It may be true to some extent along with fatigue after the run to the Euro 2020 final being another possible reason. But, the stats from this season also show that the club has not created the best conditions for their star performer to thrive.

So What Is The Way Forward?

Spurs have recently appointed one of the premier coaches in world football in Antonio Conte. It is a statement of purpose by the club by bringing in someone who has won domestic league titles in five of the past seven seasons of club management. So the club faithful including Harry Kane can be extremely buoyed by the appointment. Kane can look back and take heart from the work the current coach has done in getting the best out of strikers like Diego Costa and Romelu Lukaku. The comments from the new gaffer during Euro 2020 may bring in further cause for optimism. He had said — “Many praise Harry Kane for his ability to go get the ball and play with the team, such as with the equaliser against Denmark. Of course, he’s good at that too, but it’s in the box where he’s clinical and as a coach, I would always keep him in there because he’s devastating”. So as a fan of Spurs and Harry Kane, I can certainly hope that under Conte, Kane will be back doing what he does best, score goals!

What an incredible transfer window it has been! Two of the world’s most decorated and successful players of the last decade have moved to newer pastures in the same window. Not to mention many other top players changing their allegiances. Although the transfer window is finally nearing closure, clubs continue making additions to bolster their squads. There have already been some notable high-profile movements in the closing stages of the window which saw Ronaldo and Lukaku returning to their former clubs, while speculations go on for few more like Mbappé, Lewandowski and Hazard. Teams are taking opportunities to add depth to their squads and one can not rule out some eye-catching deals on deadline day if this dramatic transfer season is anything to go by.

The “Painful Rebuild” Is Finally Underway

While the big spenders have been making headlines, Tottenham Hotspur has been working behind the scenes to finally execute the “painful rebuild” sought by their ex-manager, Mauricio Pochettino. The club has so far added exciting young talent to fill gaps in their squad and prepare the team for future long-term success. The addition of the Serie A defender of 2020–21 season hopes to bring stability and steel to the back line, while the young Spaniard touted as “Little Cruyff” aims to bring in a different dimension to the attack. By bringing in Gollini, Spurs have set up a succession plan for their current captain and in Pape Matar Sarr, Spurs look to secure their midfield for seasons to come. There are still some positions that need filling such as a right back, another striker and maybe another centre back and the “Masters of Deadline Day” can be expected to remain busy in what has been a dramatic window for transfers.

Another Winger for Spurs?

Amidst all the hype and drama of this crazy window, a name has been associated with Spurs, one which may not catch the imagination of many fans — speed demon, Adama Traoré. A lot of Spurs fans (including me) have questioned the need for another winger and have already been drawn into multiple debates on WhatsApp about the logic behind the move. He is considered by many as wasteful, with no end product and to be honest there is a case for argument if one takes look at his stats. 7 goals and 12 assists in 103 appearances across 3 seasons is hardly flattering, especially when you compare it to the output of one of Spurs’ key men in the position, Son Heung-min (40 goals and 26 assists in 98 appearances in last 3 seasons). Spurs also have in their ranks the man who almost single-handedly took them to a Champions League final, Lucas Moura, as well as three other young talented wide men in Steven Bergwijn, Bryan Gil and Ryan Sessegnon. So what could Traoré bring to the table for Spurs that could justify shelling out nearly £40M on a position they seem to be adequately stocked in?

What Could Traoré Bring To The Table?

The current Spurs wingers have scored 71 goals and 51 assists between them in the last 3 seasons for their current and previous teams. This seems like a pretty decent output, but on delving deeper, we see that over half of the goal contributions came from just one player — Son Heung-min, indicating over reliance on him. While Traoré’s goal and assist output doesn’t suggest a sure shot departure from this trend, his underlying stats suggest he can bring in a different dimension to Spurs’ attack. Let us compare of some of Traoré’s stats with those of Spurs’ wide men to get an idea. The graphs below show the percentile rank for some key stats for the respective player among premier league attackers who have played more than 1800 mins across 3 seasons.

Adama Traoré progresses the ball into attacking third and penalty box more often per 90 minutes played than all of the Spurs wingers barring Son. He always looks to carry the ball forward as indicated by his high rank for progressive carries and progressive distance carried and he is ahead of the Spurs wingers in this aspect too. His percentile ranks for some other stats also provide some surprising revelations. His rank of over 80th percentile for assists per 90 and shot creating actions per 90 as well as above 90th percentile for key passes per 90 shows that he creates chances for his teammates and is not necessarily as wasteful with the ball as many of us consider him to be. He is one of the best dribblers (99th percentile for dribble success %) and is in the 90th percentile in terms of shots created as a result of his dribbling. Traoré also puts in a lot of crosses (99th percentile), although the quality of the crosses is something that remains an area of improvement. These stats reflect that he is a bigger attacking threat than most of the current Spurs wingers. Another surprising stat is that he has won around 70% of tackles attempted and ranks in the 70th percentile among PL forwards, showcasing his ability not just to dribble past opponents, but to win the ball back as well. These stats indicate that he could be a better option for Spurs on the wings than those currently in the squad, not just offensively, but defensively as well.

So Where Could He Fit In?

Traoré prefers playing on the right wing and has also occasionally been deployed as a right wing back. Spurs’ most productive winger, Son Heung-min is at his best playing on the left, cutting in to shoot and fashion chances for himself and others. Spurs still lack depth on the right wing considering 3 of the other 4 wingers in their ranks — Bergwijn, Gil and Sessegnon, are most comfortable playing on the left. So the thought of attempting to bring in the powerful and pacy winger from Wolves does not seem to be a completely illogical idea at the end of the day. He would be a great asset to use in the counter attacking system deployed by Nuno Espírito Santo, a coach he has already played under. He can also be used to bring in more directness and create spaces for others against teams who try to remain compact defensively, as he often attracts the attention of more than one player.

But Does It Make Sense?

Traoré still only 24, with over a 100 caps, has plenty of experience in the Premier League and Spurs may look to take a calculated gamble, if they can negotiate a favourable deal with Wolves. The asking price of £40M may seem too steep and Wolves not seem reluctant to let him go. But if Spurs can manage to structure a loan deal with an option to buy or reduce the base fee and include more performance-based ad-ons for an immediate transfer, it would mitigate the risk in case the player fails to step up to the new challenge. But with just a couple of days remaining for the window to close, Levy, Paratici and Hitchen need to act fast. The already exciting and drama filled window may still bring in more excitement and surprises. So as a Spurs fan, I am eagerly waiting to see how it ultimately unfolds for the club!

There has been increasing rumours of late about Harry Kane, the Tottenham talisman, looking for a move this transfer window. Although the club and its chairman has made it clear that the striker is not for sale, the recent happenings have left a lot of uncertainty regarding the player’s future. So the question on top of mind for everyone associated with the club is — what happens if he leaves?

What Does Harry Kane Mean For Tottenham?

Harry Kane is the crown jewel of Tottenham Hotspur and one of the top strikers in the world. He is the 2nd highest goal scorer in the club’s history with 221 goals and only 45 goals behind top scorer, Jimmy Greaves (266). The forward is also chasing Alan Shearer’s Premier League record tally of 260 goals having scored 166 times in the competition. The current England captain ranks 6th in the list of all-time top scorers for his country and needs only 15 goals to reach the top spot. He has won the Premier League ‘Golden Boot’ 3 times and only Thierry Henry (4 times) has won more. He is also the ‘Golden Boot’ holder from the latest edition of the FIFA World Cup (2018). Most recently, he was involved in nearly half of the team’s goals in the Premier League last season. These staggering numbers showcase what an exceptional and consistent performer he is for club and country.

The Problem Statement

However, his lack of success in winning silverware with his boyhood club has recently led him to consider chasing success elsewhere. There has been a lot of speculation of a potential move to Manchester City and his recent delay in returning to training has thrown a frenzy in media, some of whom have even gone to the extent of reporting his imminent departure after agreeing to personal terms with the Manchester club. Spurs definitely need to start planning for life without him as the club as not been able to match his ambitions so far. Also, even in case he decides to continue at the club under the new manager and a refreshed squad, the club needs to plan for a back-up to manage his workload as well as a long-term successor as he has just turned 28.

The club has two very highly rated young prospects in Troy Parrott (19 yrs) and Dane Scarlett (17 yrs) however they both are still too young to lead the attack for the senior team. They should be given time to slowly step into the first team and not rushed in.

Top strikers are increasingly rare to find these days and you can only think of only a handful of highly rated centre forwards plying their trade in the top leagues across Europe. As a result, they come at a premium, values which not all clubs can afford. The graph below shows the key stats of the most highly rated forwards in Europe.

The table below it shows their valuation as per Transfermarkt.

Tottenham has generally followed a philosophy of recruiting highly rated young talent who can end up being top players in future. But even such high potential youngsters don’t come cheap these days and hence any investment made for players in this position needs careful planning and analysis. So how do you replace a player of Harry’s caliber? Well the short answer is you can’t. There isn’t any striker in the world that can match his all-round abilities, especially his passing range and vision! In a similar scenario, Brad Pitt playing “Billy Beane” in the movie “Moneyball” explained that it would not be possible to replace their key player Jason Giambi in their budget, but what they could do is re-create his numbers from other players. That is what Spurs can look to do in case Kane decides to part ways.

Thankfully there is no dearth of data nowadays with each touch, every action and even location on the pitch getting recorded and multiple video clips being available for almost every player. These help clubs make informed recruitment decisions. As a long-time fan of the sport and recent sports analytics enthusiast, I thought of using this opportunity to glean through some of the data from readily available sources to identify potential replacements/back-ups for Harry Kane.

The Answer Is In Data

I have been inspired by a quote from the erstwhile IBM CEO, Ginni Rometty — “Data is the new natural resource”. It inspired me to start learning data analytics and leverage it in something that I am passionate about — Football! There are a lot of sources of data available, that when used together can help derive powerful insights and make informed decisions.

I wanted to start off by capturing as much data as possible to arrive at a comprehensive list of relevant players. So, I collected data of players in the top 5 leagues in Europe (English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1) as well as the corresponding second division competitions in the same countries by scraping the player level data from FBref.com. To ensure I pick consistent performers and not just potential ‘one season wonders’, I collected data for last two seasons (2020–21 and 2019–20) and aggregated the data for all players. From the data, I then filtered out players whose positions have been tagged as ‘Forwards’ to arrive at a relevant sample of players. The list was then narrowed down further by selecting players who have scored at least 20 goals or more in the two seasons, have played over 2700 minutes (~30 matches) and aged between 20–28 years. This was done to ensure the shortlist consists of players who have had a decent output, have played regularly and still have some peak years ahead of them.

So What Does The Data Say?

After getting a shortlist of about 80+ forwards, I selected a list of attributes that are key for a player in this position — Goals, Assists, Goals+Assists, Shots, Shots on Target, Percentage of Shots on Target, Shots per Goal, Shots on Target per Goal. These attributes were then converted to per 90 stats to account for different number of minutes played by each player. I then used these scaled attributes to run an analysis to identify players with similar stats as Harry Kane. I used a statistical analysis algorithm — ‘Cosine Similarity’. It provides a value between 0 to 1, the closer the value to one, the more similar a dataset is to the one it is compared with. In layman’s terms, it helps identify similarities in data. Although, the algorithm is used predominantly to compare similarities between text documents, I thought of using it here as the intent was to identify similar players.

After running the algorithm, I further manually filtered out the data by excluding players who are unrealistic targets (Neymar, Lukaku, etc.), recently moved to other clubs (Ings, André Silva, etc.) and most players who had less than 5 assists. This led me to arrive at a shortlist of 14 players. It is pretty interesting to note that Tottenham has been linked to 5 of the players from this shortlist in the recent transfer windows.

While performance stats are important, a player’s technical skills, physical and mental attributes are also important to ensure the player fits the philosophy and the playing style of a club. So, I collected Football Manager attributes for these shortlisted players from fminside.net. This was the best available quantitative estimation of player attributes which I could think of using, for comparison of these players. This enabled me to arrive at a final shortlist of 6 players.

Even after all numerical analysis, you can only know a player properly once you watch them play. So, I went ahead and watched their highlight videos on YouTube to understand each player’s playing style and abilities on the pitch which numbers can’t reveal. This final step helped identify the ones most suitable to match Harry Kane’s and Tottenham’s style of play. Additionally, I scraped the valuations and contract expiry details from Transfermarkt to be able to understand the potential costs and probability of deals for these players.

Putting together all this information from multiple sources enabled me to build a point of view on each of the 6 shortlisted targets.

The Final Potential Targets

1. Gerard Moreno: The Villareal man is a clinical finisher, who has great composure, excellent technique and decent passing and dribbling abilities. He can drop deep to receive the ball and then help the team progress into attacking areas, much like Kane did in his record-breaking last season. Although he doesn’t have the vision of Kane, he is capable of bringing others into play through his intelligent movement and passes.

He is the one who can be the closest like for like replacement for Kane both stylistically and statistically as the charts below show us. The chart on the left are the performance stats and the one on the right has Football Manager attributes.

However, unfortunately, he signed a contract extension just a few days back making it extremely improbable for Spurs to approach him.

2) Lautaro Martínez: The Argentine has had an extremely successful season winning the Serie A with Inter and Copa America for his country. Nicknamed “El Toro” (“The Bull”) due to his tenacity and work rate on the pitch, he has the determination and mentality of an elite forward, something Spurs almost desperately need. He has had two good seasons at club level under his belt already at a relatively young age which can convince the buying club to consider him as a potential consistent performer. Although he excels as a second striker, he can also play as a lone forward and is known for his agility, ability to drop into spaces, link-up play, good technique and finishing.

The stats below show he is the second most similar player to Kane from this list in both performance and attributes.

However, he is the most expensive player in this list and considering Inter just let go of Lukaku, they would be unwilling to let both their key goal scorers leave in the same window. But financial issues at the club may still compel them to part ways with their star man for the right offer.

3) Wout Weghorst: The colossal Dutch target man, is the third most similar player to Harry Kane as per stats and attributes.

His imposing presence and aerial ability troubles defenders and makes him difficult to defend against. He can hold up play and bring other team members into the game. He is also an equally good finisher himself and takes up scoring positions in the box. He has scored 15+ goals in his last 3 seasons at Wolfsburg assuring a buying club of his consistency in finding the net.

However, his age may cause Spurs to be reluctant in shelling out a significant sum to acquire his services. But at a price of about £20M or a few million more may make his current club think of cashing in, considering he has just two years left on his contract.

4) Victor Osimhen: The Nigerian forward is another highly rated young prospect in the shortlist. His pace makes him a threat in counter attacks and his height makes him a useful target during set pieces. His ability to lead the press and win the ball back (>50% tackle success rate) in attacking areas can enable the team to either counter-attack quickly or even play a high pressing game. He is good in front of goal, takes his chances well and uses his body to shield the ball and shrug off defenders.

Unfortunately, he had an injury hit campaign last year after joining Napoli from Lille and hence could manage only 10 goals in Serie A last season. But his stats show potential for higher returns if he stays fit.

However, Napoli has already indicated that he is not for sale when Spurs enquired about his availability. The player’s club paid a hefty sum in the previous season to prize him away from Lille, making any deal all the more difficult. But with Spurs’ ability to come up with creative deals like the ones for Lo Celso, Romero and others, he may still be an option worth exploring.

5) Simeon Nwankwo (Simy): He is a player who is not in the limelight as he plies his trade at the relatively less known Crotone. His club could not survive relegation to Serie B despite his goal scoring exploits. He has scored 20+ goals in back-to-back seasons proving his consistency in attacking returns. The graphs below show his comparison with Kane.

Standing six and a half feet tall, he is an imposing presence and troubles opposition with his physicality. His height suggests good aerial presence, he is adept in holding up play and he also finishes off chances as his stats showcase.

He can be considered as a good budget option and a potential back up target in case Spurs miss out on their primary targets. He has entered the last year of his contract and hence it might be relatively easy to get a deal done for him.

6) Dušan Vlahović: The Serbian marksman only burst into the scene on the back of a high scoring season in 2020–21 and was more recently in news, scoring 7 goals in one half of pre-season football, coming off the bench! The youngster has great composure and confidence for a player of his age. Blessed with great technique and physicality, he can hold up play as well as get into good positions to finish off chances.

Although very young, he has potential to improve further and become a top striker in the next few years, if groomed well by a club with an appetite to take a risk. In my opinion, he is also the one most similar to Kane from this list in terms of physical stature and playing style.

However due to his recent exploits, there are a lot of clubs chasing his signature. His current club is also trying to extend his contract to ward off advances from other clubs or sell him at a higher fee. As a result, he would definitely command a hefty fee, nearly 2X his valuation as per Transfermarkt. Spurs need to move fast if they are willing to push for his signature.

The Verdict

The steep prices required to sign a top forward as seen by the recent £100M+ acquisition of Lukaku by Chelsea coupled with the financial difficulties due to the COVID-19 situation and the club’s stadium debts, not to mention the inability to offer Champions League football, will make it a tough ask to sign a quality centre forward. But it is a position the club needs to fill irrespective of whether Kane stays or leaves.

In order to recommend whom to sign, I have drawn up two scenarios — “Kane leaves” or “Kane stays” and came up with logical transfer targets based on the analysis and keeping all the important factors in mind.

Scenario 1: If Kane leaves — I would have loved it if the club went in for my number one target from this list — Gerard Moreno but his recent contract extension makes it almost impossible to go for the move. Since a move for him is unlikely, the club should look at replacing Kane’s experience and consistency with the 29 year old, Wout Weghorst. He can make up for missing Kane’s vision with a different aspect of the game — aerial presence, making him a good option to improve on Spurs’ set piece returns. Son’s effective deliveries from corners as seen during the pre-season friendlies and the crossing abilities of Spaniards Reguilón and Gil can help fashion chances for him to finish. He would be an astute acquisition to cover a few years till the academy youngsters find their feet into the senior squad.

In addition to Wout, the club would definitely need one more forward as it is improbable any single striker can make up for Kane’s loss. So as per the earlier “Moneyball” reference, the club needs to get the numbers from two players instead of just one. The 23 year old Lautaro Martinez, although an ambitious target due to his valuation, fits the bill. He will perfectly suit Nuno’s wishes to play two in front and fit like a glove as a second striker. He has only two years left on his contract and his recent comments about unwillingness to sign a new deal at Inter, is an opportunity for Spurs to push for the move. The steep asking price can be offset by the cash inflow from the Kane transfer.

The duo scored 30 goals and assisted 14 on aggregate in domestic leagues, compared to 23 goals and 14 assists by Kane in the 2020–21 Premier League. They can serve as perfect foils to each other when playing together or replacing each other from the bench, enabling the team to switch tactics.

Secnario 2: If Kane stays — Oh how much I would love this to happen as a Spurs fan! But it shouldn’t mean that the club should not look for someone to share the load and settle into the league, in case the striker finally makes up his mind to bid farewell next season. Enter the dynamic Serbian sharpshooter, Dušan Vlahović. At the age of 21, he would be the perfect understudy to Kane and give enough time for the budding academy prospects to mature and make their way into the team. Standing at 6 feet 3 inches, he has almost the exact profile as Kane and although his passing and vision are definitely not at the same level as Kane, but he can be molded by the club to improve these aspects of the game considering he is so young. He might be considered a risk as he has had only one noteworthy season so far, but if his pre-season form is something to go by, his appetite for goals is definitely not going away anytime soon. His transfer fee would still be high and there is already plenty of competition for his signature with last seasons La Liga winner Atlético Madrid also entering the race, but the club can fund his deal with some sales and temporary savings of transfer fees from the Romero and Gollini loan deals.

These would be my recommendations for the club based on what the club and Kane decide about their future. I also feel that, the club should only sell Kane if they get an offer of £150M+ considering the amount of money Lukaku, Sancho and Grealish were sold for, that too after signing the right replacements.

As a Spurs fan, I sincerely hope that Harry Kane choses to continue his career at Tottenham Hotspur and the club manages to retain him. But coming back to the question raised in the beginning of the article — “Could there be life after Harry Kane for Tottenham Hotspur and the fans?” (in case he decides to move on). The answer is YES, but it definitely won’t be the same!