Written by: Heather Bagg, Trevor Keating, Donatas Kudokas, Jhermi Mehta, Meghan Olesiuk

Introduction

Historically, Canada has been a nation known for its open arms toward immigration, welcoming newcomers with its commitment to diversity, universal healthcare, and strong public institutions. But today, as Alberta and British Columbia experience unprecedented growth in construction and manufacturing, they face an urgent and growing problem: a severe shortage of skilled trades workers.

While both sectors involve hands-on work, they focus on different skills. Manufacturing involves working with machinery to produce goods and parts, often in factories. Common roles include machine operators and assemblers. Trades/Construction, on the other hand, includes skilled work like plumbing, carpentry, welding, and electrical, usually requiring apprenticeship or certification, such as Red Seal.

Massive infrastructure projects, rapid urban development, and a retiring workforce are creating a labour gap that threatens to stall progress. The solution? It’s multifaceted, a coordinated effort involving immigration, skills training, youth engagement, and greater inclusion of underrepresented groups. These aren’t just policy buzzwords; they are essential strategies shaping the future of Western Canada’s workforce.

In this post, our team, The Western Stars, explores how immigration is helping fill critical roles, how provinces are investing in training programs and apprenticeships, why attracting youth is vital, and how addressing gender inequality can unlock untapped potential. Together, these elements form a blueprint for sustainable growth, and a call to action for industries, governments, and communities alike.

Labour Shortages in key sectors and how this affects our economy

The skilled trades shortage has a huge impact that is being felt in many sectors of our economy. These impacts are particularly significant in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Many of the jobs in both of those sectors rely heavily on skilled tradespeople. In British Columbia there are seven skilled trades that have been deemed “Red Seal Certified” trades, meaning that in order to be deemed qualified, you need to achieve Red Seal Certification before obtaining Journeyperson status. This change has been slowly implemented over several years.

The purpose of moving to a certified trades program is to ensure standardized skills training for apprentices and levels the playing field to allow for a more diverse workforce. These particular trades are also regulated by other regulators such as the Technical Safety BC Safety Authority who is responsible for the Canadian Electrical Code and the Boiler Safety regulations.

As more trades become certified trades, the skill level and in turn, the quality of work increases. Although this move to better quality skilled trades is a step in the right direction, it poses its own hurdles in a time where we desperately need to fill the gaps. We cannot compromise the safety aspect of quality training but it can create bigger challenges for accessibility and requires more upskilling and that can take extra time.

What’s Causing the Skilled Trades Gap?

Approximately 700,000 of Canada’s 4 million skilled tradespeople are set to retire by 2028, according to recent projections. At least one-third of tradespeople and apprentices in Ontario are 55 or older, and as older workers hang up their tools, they’re not being replaced with younger ones who bring matching skills to the job site. In addition to the sheer number of trades people who are being lost through attrition, in recent years there was a growing trend of lower enrollment and registration in the skilled trades.

A Crisis in Manufacturing

Take manufacturing, for example, which generated $213 billion in economic activity and 1.6 million direct jobs in 2023. (McDowell, 2025).

As the president and CEO of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters Association , Dennis Darby has been hearing a lot about the growing desperation of Canadian employers to retain experienced, skilled workers in the trades. Darby says as a result of labour shortages, “over 60 percent of manufacturers we surveyed said [they’ve] turned down or lost contracts. Which means they just can’t meet the production,” he adds, “Forty-three percent have postponed or cancelled capital investments. That’s how important labour is in manufacturing.”

Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, (CME), economists, estimated the skills shortage in the manufacturing sector cost the Canadian economy approximately $13 billion in 5 2022 in lost contracts and delayed investment. And Darby says Canada isn’t doing enough to close the gap. “I think we’re going to have chronic labour Shortages.” (McDowell, 2025)

A Crisis in Construction

In the construction sector, a $165-billion industry that accounts for 8 percent of Canada’s GDP, a CIBC report last year identified 80,000 vacancies across the country. Half the unfilled jobs require a skilled tradesperson to fill them. (McDowell, 2025).

“It is hardly a secret that the industry needs more workers, and fast. Ask any developer about supply issues and the availability of labour usually tops the list,” the report explains. It should be noted that in the short term, at least, a record-high 650,000 people are working in Canada’s construction industry and job vacancies have returned to pre-COVID norms, easing some concerns over labour shortages. (CBC, 2024; McDowell, 2025).

Even still, the scarcity of skilled construction workers reportedly causing major headaches for employers and delaying the building of much-needed infrastructure, the shortage is driving up costs and contributing to the housing crisis, as the public service has warned the Trudeau government. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation estimates that Canada needs to increase its housing supply by 3.5 million units by 2030 to bring affordability back to where it was in 2004. But with housing starts limping along at a rate of about a quarter of a million new homes a year, due in part to growing labour and material costs, the housing shortage is growing as opposed to shrinking. As an RBC report summed it up: “The pace of housing construction would need to jump by nearly half…just to meet future demographic growth.” (Cook, 2024; McDowell, 2025).

In other words, the skills crunch is not a looming problem: it’s already here. It’s holding back Canada’s economic growth and driving inflation. And governments have only recently started creating programs to address the problem. Experts fear these efforts will prove to be too little, too late. There are several reasons for the skilled trades shortage in Canada.(McDowell, 2025)

Low Participation Rates Among Younger Workers

Another factor contributing to the skilled trades shortage is low participation rates among younger workers. Many young Canadians are not choosing to pursue careers in the skilled trades, opting instead for university degrees or other career paths. This is partly due to a perception that skilled trades jobs are low-paying and require physical labour, which may not be appealing to some young people. There is also a lack of awareness among high school students about the opportunities available in the skilled trades. More details on the barriers and potential solutions for improving youth participation in the trades will be discussed later on in this paper (Socha, 2023).

Lack of Training Opportunities

Even among young people who are interested in pursuing careers in the skilled trades, there is often a lack of training opportunities. Many training programs require apprenticeships, which can be difficult to obtain. Schooling access and lack of funding for training programs can be an issue in rural communities.

Lack of Recognition

Despite the importance of skilled trades jobs to the Canadian economy, there is often a lack of recognition for the value of this work. Skilled tradespeople may not be compensated as well as other workers with similar levels of education and experience, and their work may not be viewed as highly skilled.

Immigration Challenges

Canada has a large pool of highly skilled immigrants, many of whom are not able to work in their chosen fields due to a lack of recognition for their foreign credentials. This means that there is a pool of skilled workers who are unable to fill the available jobs in the skilled trades. Efforts are being made to recognize foreign credentials and streamline the process for immigrants to obtain Canadian certification.

Industry Downturns

When industries such as oil and gas experience downturns, it can lead to a decline in the number of available skilled trades jobs. This can make it more difficult to attract new workers to the industry, particularly if they are uncertain about job security. Efforts are being made to diversify the Canadian economy and reduce its dependence on industries that are prone to boom-and-bust cycles (Socha, 2023).

Recent studies have shown however that the perception of the trades as a career is shifting as record numbers of both first-year apprentices and overall apprentices in B.C. have increased, said Shelley Gray, CEO for SkilledTradesBC and the first woman to head up the organization.

“The process has been one of breaking down the stigma of trade jobs and showing they are well-paying jobs and offer lots of opportunity,” she said as numbers spike upward.

Approximately 18,000 new apprentices registered in 2023–24, up from 15,000 in 2022–2023 and above the annual average of 12,000 to 13,000. The construction sector also saw increases. In 2023–24, there was a 17 percent increase in overall apprenticeship registration in construction trades. New apprentice registration increased by 32 percent between 2022–23 and 2023–24.The 2023–24 overall figures recorded 47,000 apprentices registered with SkilledTradesBC. “That is the highest recorded in B.C.,” Gray said, as more individuals are seeing the value of a trade career and the lifestyle it can offer.

During the past 10 years, she said, the figure has gone “up and down” ranging between 35,000 to 38,000 apprentices. Gray said it is significant that higher numbers are also coming from underrepresented areas of the population. Approximately 10 percent of apprentices now registered are women entering skilled trades such as electrical. “A critical mass is occurring and this can help to define the culture and create a more welcoming workplace,” said Gray.

Immigration’s Role in Bolstering Alberta and British Columbia’s Construction and Manufacturing Workforce Amid Labour Shortages.

Here we go! Canada — a multicultural country known for free healthcare, quality public education, personal freedom, and a low crime rate. We’ve always admired how welcoming Canada is to newcomers. Its diverse culture and opportunities it offers to immigrants, residents, and citizens alike. Have you ever sat back and thought about how many opportunities there are in this country, not just to its citizens, but to immigrants and permanent residents too?

Western Canada Is Booming — But Facing a Labour Crisis

Western Canada is booming. Alberta’s pushing ahead with massive projects like Calgary’s GreenLine and the New South Edmonton Hospital, while BC tackles the Brewster Wind Farm and major port expansions as just a few examples. (ConstructConnect, 2024; Labour Market Development Division, 2024). But there’s a problem: we don’t have enough people to build it all. Construction and manufacturing are facing critical worker shortages that could derail these projects entirely (CBC, 2024). Automation and training programs help, but they’re not cutting it. Immigration isn’t just our long-term plan anymore — it’s our immediate lifeline.

Immigrants Are Filling Crucial Gaps

Immigrants are filling essential roles as welders, electricians, machine operators, and production supervisors through various immigration streams tailored to labour market needs. These include federal streams such as “Alberta Opportunity Stream, Alberta Express Entry Stream, Rural Renewal Stream, Tourism and Hospitality Stream (New stream launched in 2024)” (UmberApp, 2025). In British Columbia, the BC Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) accepts applications under three major categories: Skills Immigration, Express Entry and Entrepreneur Immigration (Singer, 2018). Additionally, provincial nominee programs like the “The Alberta Advantage Immigration Program (AAIP)” specifically target labour shortages in key sectors (Alberta Advantage Immigration Program). These in-demand jobs are providing competitive salaries as shown below.

Top in-demand jobs in Alberta (Immigration News Canada):

● Construction millwrights and industrial mechanic workers. The average annual salary is $83,433.

● Contractors, supervisors, and heavy equipment operator crews. The average annual salary is $77,335.

● Welders and related machine operators. The average annual salary is $78,071.

Top In-Demand Jobs in British Columbia (WorkBC):

● Construction trades helpers and labourers. The average annual salary is $50,054.

● Heavy equipment operators. The average annual salary is $70,910.

For many newcomers, earning $75,000 or more annually in these roles means finally having the chance to save for a home or support family back home. These trades offer faster pathways to financial security compared to entry-level positions, making Alberta and BC genuine destinations where immigrants can build new lives.

Bridging the Gap: Skilled Trades and Immigrant Inclusion

There’s a real disconnect between labour market needs and immigrant inclusion in skilled trades. Construction is expected to keep growing through the year 2033, and we’re facing serious shortages in welders, electricians, and millwrights (BuildForce Canada, 2024). As shown above, these jobs pay well and are in high demand, but immigrants still aren’t getting into apprenticeship programs.

The problem isn’t finding skilled workers — it’s getting foreign credentials recognized. I’ve met immigrants with solid experience who wait months just to work in their field. The Foreign Credential Recognition Program exists to speed things up, but not enough people use it because the process still feels like a maze (Employment and Social Development Canada, 2024).

If we want to fix labour shortages, we need better communication, real outreach, and simpler credential recognition. We’ve got skilled people ready to work — we just need to stop making it so hard for them.

Skilled Trades in Alberta and BC: Immigration Is Now Essential

The skilled trades are experiencing a significant worker shortage across Canada, withAlberta and BC being the hardest hit. With baby boomers retiring and massive infrastructure projects ramping up, we’ve gone from worker shortages to a full-blown crisis mode. Immigration isn’t just helping anymore — it’s what’s keeping the lights on.

Each province is scrambling differently. BC runs apprenticeships through SkilledTradesBC and helps foreign-trained workers get certified through their Get Certified program (SkilledTradesBC, 2024). Alberta uses Tradesecrets for international workers to challenge exams and work toward Red Seal certification (Tradesecrets, 2024).

On the immigration side, BC’s Provincial Nominee Program targets construction and manufacturing workers (WelcomeBC, 2024). Alberta’s Advantage Immigration Program focuses on skilled workers, especially those willing to work rural (Government of Alberta, 2024). The federal Foreign Credential Recognition Program helps with assessments and funding (Government of Canada, 2024).

But here’s the reality check: immigrants still face massive roadblocks. Limited apprenticeship spots, hiring bias, being stuck in jobs way below their skill level. Having the right papers doesn’t guarantee anything. We need training, immigration services, and industry actually working together instead of just rolling out the welcome mat.

Forging Stronger Futures Through Skills Training

Canada’s always needed immigrants for critical jobs, but now we’re doing something smarter — giving newcomers the tools to build real careers, not just fill gaps. Skills training and apprenticeships are game-changers, especially in construction and manufacturing.

Alberta’s got this figured out. SAIT, NAIT, and Keyano College run hands-on trades programs built for newcomers and the Christian Labour Association of Canada’s (CLAC) Career Development College offers pre-employment and apprenticeship training specifically for permanent residents and work permit holders (Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, 2024; Northern Alberta Institute of Technology, 2024; Keyano College, 2024; Christian Labour Association of Canada, 2024). These post-secondary institutions teach welding, industrial mechanics, construction skills which all support direct paths to good-paying, stable work.

Alberta’s apprenticeship system is refreshingly simple: find a sponsor employer, register as an apprentice, work toward certification (Government of Alberta, 2024). This is an example of a clear roadmap that actually works.

BC is catching up fast too. TradeUpBC and the Future Ready Action Plan offer short-term training in construction safety, electrical work, and manufacturing (Government of British Columbia, 2024; WorkBC, 2024a). In addition, the $3,500 BC Future Skills Grant covers costs which are huge when families are starting over (WorkBC, 2024b).

BC’s Youth in Manufacturing pilot program gives immigrant youth paid placements and early credentials, while adults get bridge training, language support, and credential recognition through community partners (WorkBC, 2024c; SkilledTradesBC, 2024).

These programs deliver more than just job training — they provide stability, confidence, and real opportunity. They help immigrants turn international experience into Canadian credentials, boost earning power, and strengthen our communities.

Whether you’re an employer, policymaker, or neighbour, supporting newcomers in skilled trades means investing in our shared future. What can you do today to help someone feel valued and welcome?

Assistance from Immigration to Tackle Labour shortages in Alberta and British Columbia

Recent reports indicate that BC “will need 52,600 new construction workers by 2032 to avoid a disruptive labour shortage. 30% of those workers will have to come from outside of Canada” (Cook, 2024). Whereas, in Alberta it is reported “Alberta’s construction industry to recruit an estimated 59,000 workers” by 2034 (BuildForce Canada, 2024).

Immigrate to Canada

Canada offers four main work-based immigration routes:

1. Express Entry manages applications from skilled workers through an online system that ranks candidates based on factors like education, work experience, and language skills (IRCC, 2025).
2. The Caregivers Program lets you come to Canada as a permanent resident or temporary worker if you’re qualified to provide care for children, elderly, or people with medical needs (IRCC, 2025).
3. Start-Up Visa Program targets entrepreneurs who can build innovative businesses that create Canadian jobs and compete globally — though it excludes Quebec (IRCC, 2013).
4. Hong Kong Residents Program provides a pathway to permanent residence through two streams: recent Canadian graduates (Stream A) or those with Canadian work experience (Stream B) (IRCC, 2021).

Newcomer Skills Training in Alberta and British Columbia

Both Alberta and BC offer newcomers specialized training through colleges, settlement agencies, and government programs. These programs often combine language support, job search training, safety certification, and hands-on experience to help immigrants succeed in their chosen field.

Whether a newcomer is interested in building products or building homes, there are many pathways to gain the skills, credentials, and Canadian experience needed for a stable and rewarding career in these fast-growing industries.

How Can Newcomers Get Red Seal Certified?

For newcomers with trade experience, the Red Seal Certification is a key step toward a successful career in Canada. It’s a nationally recognized credential that proves your skills meet Canadian standards and allows you to work across provinces.

Start by visiting www.red-seal.ca to see the list of Red Seal trades, such as plumbing, carpentry, electrical, and welding. Check if your trade is listed and if your experience aligns with Canadian requirements.

If you’ve worked in a trade before, you may qualify for a skills or credential assessment. This evaluates your past work and training to determine if you can take the Red Seal exam or need further preparation. Some provinces also offer bridging programs, including training or apprenticeships, to help meet Canadian standards.

Red Seal certification boosts job opportunities, increases earning potential, and provides mobility across Canada.

Steps to get started:

1. Check if your skills are recognized.
2. Visit www.red-seal.ca
3. Find your trade.
4. Request a skills assessment if applicable.

Canadian Council of apprenticeship average age applicants:

Language is important for future training schools and certifications.

ESL classes are available at:

1. MOSAIC (BC),
2. NorQuest College (Alberta),
3. Immigrant Services Society of BC (BC),
4. CCIS (Calgary),
5. UFC (Calgary),
6. Bow valley College (Calgary),
7. Columbia College (Calgary).

Join a Training Program or Pre-Apprenticeship in BC and Alberta

For newcomers, training or pre-apprenticeship programs offer a strong start in Canada’s skilled trades. These programs provide hands-on experience, technical training, and workplace readiness, often leading to Red Seal certification.

In British Columbia, SkilledTradesBC oversees trades training and helps assess foreign credentials. Pre-apprenticeship programs are offered by:

● BCIT — Foundation programs in plumbing, electrical, welding, and more.

● Vancouver Community College (VCC) — Entry-level trades programs.

● Camosun College and Okanagan College — Offer foundation and trades training.

These programs run a few months to a year, combining classroom and practical learning to prepare students for apprenticeships.In Alberta, Alberta Trades Secrets manages apprenticeship and training. Newcomers can assess their eligibility and explore programs at:

● SAIT — Pre-employment trades programs.

● NAIT — Known for technical trades training.

Alberta’s programs help build trade skills and often include English support. Joining one of these programs helps newcomers meet industry standards, gain confidence, and move toward a certified trades.

What is the Apprenticeship Path

An apprenticeship is a practical way to learn a skilled trade while working and earning a wage. It follows the “earn while you learn” model, combining real work experience with part-time classroom instruction. This pathway suits careers like carpentry, plumbing, welding, and electrical work.

Steps to Becoming an Apprentice:

1. Find a Job in Your Trade Start by finding an employer willing to hire and train you. You’ll gain hands-on experience under a certified tradesperson.
2. Register as an Apprentice — Register with your province’s apprenticeship authority to ensure your hours and training are recorded. In Alberta, visit tradesecrets.alberta.ca; in B.C., go to skilledtradesbc.ca.
3. Learn on the Job and in the Classroom — Apprentices spend 80% of their time working and 20% in technical training, learning trade theory and safety practices.
4. Get Certified — Most programs last 2–4 years. After completing all requirements and passing the exam, you can earn certification, including RedSealstatus.

Take the Red Seal Exam

Once you finish your apprenticeship, the next step is to take the Red Seal Exam. This exam is for people who want to become certified tradespeople in Canada. It tests the skills and knowledge you learned during your training and on the job experience.

To be ready for the exam, you need to complete all your apprenticeship requirements, which usually include classroom learning and a certain number of work hours. After that, you can apply to write the Red Seal Exam in your trade. The exam is usually multiple choice and focuses on what you would need to know to do your job safely and effectively. If you pass the exam, you will receive your Red Seal certificate.

This certificate is a big achievement. It shows that you are qualified to work in your trade across any province or territory in Canada. That means if you move to a new area, your certification goes with you, you don’t have to requalify.

The Red Seal is recognized across the country and even outside of Canada in some cases. It can also help you get better job opportunities or a higher wage. In short, the Red Seal helps you grow your career in the trades.

Where to Get Help?

Inspiring the Next Wave of Trade Professionals-Youth Engagement

Another significant challenge contributing to labour shortages in Alberta and BC is the aging workforce heading towards retirement in both construction and manufacturing sectors. The need to fill these skilled trade positions while also having access to mentorship is key to the success of both Alberta and BC’s economic growth. As Figure 6 illustrates, the proportion of workers aged 55 or older in Red Seal trades outweighs the youth (15–24) entering these fields as of 2021, indicating that young people aren’t replacing retiring tradespeople at the necessary rate. (Statistics Canada, 2021). Let’s take a deeper look into the current mindsets and challenges faced by youth.

Current Mindsets and Challenges Among Youth

Recent surveys reveal that just 16 percent of Generation Z — those born between the mid-1990s and early 2010s — are likely to consider a career in a skilled trade. (Labourly, 2023).

Beyond the Degree: Debunking the “Blue Collar” Myth

One of the reasons younger generations have a lack of interest in the trades as a whole is because of the glorification and glamorization of higher education. For decades young minds have been taught that “blue collar” jobs are for those who didn’t go to college or were not of the correct social standing to go. Who wants oil or dirt under their fingernails when you can work in air conditioning and climb the corporate ladder. Historically, the rise of the knowledge economy and increased emphasis on post-secondary degrees reinforced the idea that trades were a “second-tier” option for those who were not academically inclined (Sattler & Sandall, 2020).

This perception is not just cultural but also systemic. Parents, teachers, and school counselors have traditionally steered students toward university, viewing them as safer and more reputable, especially for middle and upper-class youth (Taylor, 2023). This guidance often unintentionally sidelines the trades, despite their potential for high earnings, job stability, and entrepreneurship.This rhetoric has fueled classism and increased the lie that those who are in the trades are somehow less than. Reframing this narrative and addressing the stigma around skilled trades will be imperative to change this mindset.

Access to information

Recruiters must increase awareness of alternative options outside of the four-year university degree track. Many high school graduates may not be aware that skilled work can be just as lucrative and fulfilling as jobs that require a bachelor’s degree. (Labourly, 2023).

Cost of Living Reality

Helping young adults recognize skilled trades can offer job security with financial independence and entrepreneurial opportunities is key to bridging the gap of labour shortages. Skilled trades enable youth to enter the workforce sooner through apprenticeship without crippling student loan debt and with a more affordable path to high-paying careers.

Employers dismissing younger generations

Every generation thinks the following generations are “lazy and don’t want to work anymore.” How many times have you heard an older adult say this about a young person?

In order to recruit and retain new talent, employers and industry leaders need to understand what values drive today’s youth. Focusing on Gen Z; they prioritize work-life balance, employment fulfillment, mental wellness, flexibility, and are environmentally conscious. They are often tech-savvy, entrepreneurial, and motivated by the opportunity to learn and grow quickly. The workplace culture needs to reflect these values. (Simpro, 2025).

The Influence of AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) is automating tasks and replacing entry-level office workers, this cannot be said of skilled trades. In contrast, due to the hands-on roles in manufacturing and construction, which require complex on the spot problem-solving and critical thinking, are perceived to be more “AI-proof” (The Tyee, 2025).

Attracting Youth to Trades

Both Alberta and British Columbia are actively implementing targeted strategies to bridge the labour gap by drawing more youth into construction and manufacturing trades. By focusing on early exposure through high school programs, investing heavily in state-of-the-art vocational training facilities, fostering strong industry partnerships, and implementing targeted recruitment campaigns that challenge outdated perceptions.

Alberta’s Strategic Initiatives

Alberta is taking a proactive, multi-level approach to drawing young people into skilled trades, focusing on early exposure, financial backing, and strong industry ties.

1. Promoting Trades Early

○ Through Tradesecrets, Alberta’s apprenticeship system, initiatives like the Youth Skills Network and Skilled Trades Youth Ambassadors actively engage students, parents, and educators. (Tradesecrets, n.d.).

○ Campaigns like the “Skills for Jobs Task Force,” aim to elevate the perception of trades education to be on par with university degrees. (Alberta.ca, n.d.).

○ The Registered Apprenticeship Program (RAP) “Earn While You Learn” lets high school students earn academic credits and get paid work experience hours that count directly towards their apprenticeship, giving them an invaluable head start (SAIT, n.d.).

2. Investing in Top Training Facilities

○ Alberta has made significant investments in polytechnic institutions like NAIT and SAIT.

○ NAIT’s Advanced Skills Centre is receiving substantial government funding to boost capacity for thousands more students in construction, manufacturing, and other vital trades (NAIT, 2025).

3. Inclusive Community and Diversity Programs

○ Organizations like Prospect Human Services are expanding their “Youth Apprenticeship Connections” program to support youth aged 16–24, including vulnerable populations, through career exploration and mentorship, even in rural areas (Prospect Human Services, n.d.; The Albertan, 2025).

○ The Building Trades of Alberta (BTA) and its unions also actively promote diversity, working to attract and retain women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians in trades (Building Trades of Alberta, n.d.).

4. Financial Support

○ Various scholarships and grants, such as the Workforce Partnerships grants, are available to help offset training costs, making trades a more accessible career path (Alberta.ca, n.d. b; STAR Catholic Schools, n.d.).

British Columbia’s Strategic Initiatives

1. Early Education Awareness

○ SkilledTradesBC: Employs structured programs and strong partnerships. This provincial agency spearheads trades training and certification. Its “Youth Portal” provides resources like a “Trades Discovery Tool” to help young people explore career options (International Education, n.d. b; SkilledTradesBC, 2023).

○ Their service plan explicitly aims to grow the apprenticeship population by targeting youth and underrepresented groups (SkilledTradesBC, 2025).

2. High School Programs (Dual Credit):

○ Youth Train in Trades (YTT): This program allows high school students to complete technical training towards a trade credential while still in high school, earning both high school credits and foundational trades training. (SkilledTradesBC, 2023).

○ Youth Work in Trades (YWIT): Through YWIT, students in Grades 10–12 can begin a formal apprenticeship, earning high school credits for paid work experience that counts directly towards their apprenticeship hours. A $1,000 scholarship upon graduation provides an additional incentive (Okanagan Similkameen (SD53), n.d.; International Education, n.d. a).

3. Partnerships and Community-Based Initiatives:

○ Industry and Post-Secondary Collaboration: Vocational colleges like Vancouver Community College (VCC) offer youth-focused trades programs, ensuring curriculum alignment with industry needs (VCC, n.d.).

○ Youth Trade Builders (PICS): This program, targeting unemployed or precariously employed young adults, offers career exploration, short-term skills training, and financial support for approved courses and tools, helping remove barriers to entry (PICS, n.d.).

○ School District Support: Many BC school districts employ Career Programs Coordinators who guide students through application processes and connect them with employers, streamlining the transition from education to employment (Chilliwack School District (SD33), n.d.).

Alberta and British Columbia are striving to make skilled trades and manufacturing attractive and viable career paths for Gen Z. While these provinces are aware of the challenges and acknowledge the need for consistent employer engagement, these concerted efforts are essential to ensuring a robust, skilled, and dynamic workforce capable of meeting the future demands of these crucial industries.

Gender Inequality Remains a Persistent Issue

Gender inequality remains a persistent issue in Canada’s labour market, particularly within traditionally male-dominated sectors such as manufacturing and construction. In Alberta and British Columbia (B.C.), these disparities are shaped by a combination of systemic barriers, occupational segregation, wage gaps, and limited access to leadership roles for women and gender-diverse individuals. Despite national and provincial efforts to promote gender equity, significant gaps remain in both representation and compensation and these gaps continue to exacerbate the ongoing labour shortages in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Representation and Occupational Segregation

It is no surprise that women remain significantly underrepresented in the manufacturing and construction sectors in both Alberta and B.C. According to a Labour Force Survey completed by Statistics Canada, women accounted for only 28.5% of the workforce in manufacturing positions and a mere 13.2% in construction positions across Canada in 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2023). In Alberta and B.C., these figures are even lower due to the provinces’ strong reliance on non-renewable resource-based industries, which have historically employed predominantly male workers. In Alberta women make up just 16.4% of the construction workforce, according to the Alberta Construction Industry Profile 2024. Regarding manufacturing within Alberta, women make up only 26.3% of the workforce according to the Alberta Manufacturing Industry Profile 2024 (Government of Alberta, 2024).

Beyond underrepresentation, occupational segregation also continues to be a major contributor to gender inequality. Women in the construction and manufacturing sectors are more likely to be employed in administrative, clerical, or support roles rather than in skilled trades or leadership positions. This horizontal segregation limits their career advancement opportunities and contributes to persistent wage disparities.

Wage Disparities and Economic Participation

The gender wage gap remains a critical issue in both provinces and across Canada. Nationally, the gap between men’s and women’s average hourly wages narrowed from 16% in 2007 to 12% in 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2022) which means we are moving in the right direction. However, this progress is uneven across sectors and demographic groups and unfortunately, in the manufacturing and construction sectors, the wage gap is often wider due to the concentration of women in lower-paying roles and the pervasive undervaluation of work traditionally performed by women.

Within Curtis and Irvine’s “Principles of Microeconomics…” textbook Curtis and Irvine refer to wage gaps or wage differences as discrimination which we feel gets to the truth of the matter. Wage differences between two individuals based solely on a person’s gender is truly a form of discrimination and should be called as such. Curtis and Irvine describe this type of discrimination as “an earnings differential that is attributable to a trait other than human capital” where “human capital” is referring to differences in education in this case. Curtis and Irvine go on to state that “if two individuals have the same capability to perform a particular task, then a wage premium paid to one represents discrimination” (Curtis & Irvine, 2017).

To make matters worse “women, particularly those who have children, are paid less than men, and frequently face a ‘glass ceiling’ — a limit on their promotion possibilities within organizations” (Curtis & Irvine, 2017).

To make matters worse yet again, Indigenous women and immigrant women face even greater disparities and even greater discrimination. For example, in 2022, Indigenous women earned 20% less than Canadian-born men, while immigrant women who arrived in Canada as adults earned 21% less (Statistics Canada, 2023). These gaps are exacerbated in sectors like construction, where unionized jobs and apprenticeship programs often lack inclusive recruitment and retention strategies.

Barriers to Advancement

Women in manufacturing and construction face additional barriers to career advancement, including limited access to mentorship, training, and leadership opportunities. The Gender Results Framework, which is a strategic tool developed by the Government of Canada to track progress toward gender equality, highlights that women are underrepresented in decision-making roles across all sectors, with particularly low representation in skilled trades and technical occupations. As skilled trades and technical occupations make up the bulk of jobs within the construction and manufacturing sectors, tackling labour shortages by attracting and supporting more women in these two sectors becomes even more critical.

In Alberta and B.C., initiatives to increase women’s participation in trades have shown some promise, but progress remains slow. Programs such as Women Building Futures in Alberta Women Building Futures and the B.C. Centre for Women in the Trades (BCCWITT) BCCWITT aim to provide training and support, yet systemic challenges such as workplace harassment, lack of childcare, and inflexible work arrangements continue to hinder women’s full participation.

Intersectional Challenges

An intersectional lens or a lens from multiple perspectives reveals that gender inequality is compounded by other identity factors such as race, immigration status, and disability. For instance, immigrant women who obtained their credentials outside Canada face a wage gap of 33%, compared to 16% for those educated in Canada. Indigenous women, particularly those living off-reserve, are more likely to be employed in precarious or low-wage jobs within these sectors.

Moreover, women from racialized groups are disproportionately represented in the lowest-paid occupations within manufacturing and construction. In 2022, 36% of Indigenous women and 35% of immigrant women who immigrated as adults worked in the five lowest-paid occupations, compared to 26% of Canadian-born women. These disparities highlight the need for targeted policies that address the unique challenges faced by diverse groups of women.

Policy and Program Responses

The Government of Canada has implemented several initiatives to address gender inequality, including the Gender Results Framework, mentioned above, and Gender-Based Analysis Plus (GBA+) which is another tool that assesses how diverse groups of people experience policies, programs and initiatives differently. These frameworks and tools aim to integrate gender and diversity considerations into policy development and program delivery. In Alberta and B.C., provincial governments have also introduced measures to support women in trades, such as funding for pre-apprenticeship programs and employer incentives for hiring women.

However, the effectiveness of these initiatives depends on sustained investment, accountability mechanisms, and collaboration with industry stakeholders. Data from Statistics Canada suggest that while educational attainment among women has increased significantly, translating these gains into equitable employment outcomes requires systemic change.

Recommendations to address gender inequality

To address gender inequality in the manufacturing and construction sectors in Alberta and B.C., the following actions are recommended:

1. Expand Access to Training and Apprenticeships: Increase funding for gender-inclusive training programs and remove barriers to entry for underrepresented groups.
2. Promote Inclusive Workplaces: Implement workplace policies that address harassment, provide flexible work arrangements, and support work-life balance.
3. Strengthen Data Collection and Monitoring: Enhance the collection of disaggregated data to better understand the experiences of diverse groups and inform targeted interventions.
4. Support Leadership Development: Create mentorship and sponsorship programs to support women’s advancement into leadership roles within these sectors.
5. Engage Industry Partners: Collaborate with employers, unions, and industry associations to promote gender equity and inclusive hiring practices.

Conclusion in support of gender equality

While there are examples that do show progress being made towards gender equality in Canada, such as the fact that the number of women in post-secondary institutions exceeds the number of men and almost 60% of university students are women, gender inequality remains an ongoing issue that we all need to work together to solve (Curtis & Irvine, 2017).

Gender inequality in the manufacturing and construction sectors in Alberta and B.C. specifically reflects broader systemic issues that require coordinated action across all levels of government, industry, and civil society. While progress has been made, particularly in narrowing the wage gap and increasing educational attainment among women, as mentioned in the previous paragraph, significant challenges remain. Addressing these disparities through inclusive policies, targeted programs, and sustained advocacy is essential to building a more equitable and prosperous workforce not only in the construction and manufacturing sectors but across all sectors of the Canadian economy.

Final Summary/ Final Thoughts

As this post has shown, Canada is facing a serious shortage of skilled trades workers, especially in construction and manufacturing in Alberta and British Columbia. This is mainly due to an aging workforce, fewer young people entering the trades, and challenges for immigrants trying to get their credentials recognized. Immigration has become a key part of the solution, with programs and training helping newcomers build long-term careers. Alberta and BC are also working to attract more youth by offering hands-on training, early exposure programs, and promoting trades as stable, well-paying careers. But more needs to be done to connect training, certification, and job opportunities so that both newcomers and young Canadians can succeed in these fields.

Gender inequality adds another layer to the problem. Women, especially Indigenous and immigrant women, are still underrepresented in trades and leadership roles. They often face lower pay, fewer opportunities, and workplace barriers like lack of childcare and mentorship. Programs like Women Building Futures are helping, but progress is slow. To truly close the gap, we need more inclusive training, flexible work environments, better data, and stronger partnerships with employers and unions. While there have been improvements in education and awareness, real change will take teamwork across government, industry, and communities. Supporting a diverse and inclusive trades workforce isn’t just the right thing to do — it’s the smart way forward for Alberta, B.C. and Canada’s future.

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Building the workforce — the future of skilled trades in Alberta and B.C. was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

In 2024 the Canadian Government put a cap on the number of international student study permits issued each year effectively reducing the total number of permits by approximately 40%. In 2025 the Canadian Government further reduced this cap by an additional 10%. This will surely have an affect on the private post-secondary institutions that rely on international student enrollment (read tuition), but it will also have a profound affect on the local municipalities where these post-secondary institutions reside. With this in mind, it is important to understand how reductions in the number of international students studying in Canada will affect the local economies of the municipalities where these post-secondary institutions are located.

As private schools are ultimately businesses, which need to maintain profit to continue operating, private educational institutions focus primarily on attracting international students. The reason for this is strictly financial; international students typically pay four to five times the tuition that domestic students pay. Statistics Canada reported that international undergraduate students paid an average of $40,114 nationally in tuition fees whereas Canadian undergraduate students paid only $7,360 during the 2024/2025 year (Statistics Canada, 2025). Canadian and international tuition fees by level of study (current dollars).

With the above stated and getting back to the title of this article, should municipalities be pursuing private post-secondary institutions as a driver of local economic development? To answer this question, lets review the potential challenges and the potential opportunities that private post-secondary institutions and the students they attract bring to a community.

The potential challenges

• Generally private and public post-secondary institutions, including student dormitories, are exempt from paying property tax. As a result, municipalities will not see any increases in property tax revenue from constructing these buildings. Property Tax Exemption in Alberta (page 11)
• Increased demand for housing students could be expected to put further strain on the current affordable housing crisis and low rental vacancy seen in many Canadian municipalities. Niagara Falls, Ontario is currently experiencing this additional housing strain due in part to the influx of international students to the University of Niagara Falls (UNF) campus. A news article in The Pointer, titled “University of Niagara Falls is welcoming over 1,000 new students this fall; where are they going to live?” outlines that:

Masters students at UNF create a unique problem for the municipality. Once a student study permit is approved for a masters program, these students can bring their immediate family to Canada with them as a visitor. That includes their spouse or common law partner, and dependent children under the age of 22. This means it may not just be students seeking housing. There will be families looking for apartments or houses to rent in a market where that has become almost impossible for locals. University of Niagara Falls is welcoming over 1,000 new students this fall; where are they going to live? | The Pointer

• The increased demand for affordable housing for international students may potentially lead to increased homelessness which may correspond with an increased need for shelter space and food banks all of which would put additional strain on the municipal governments and the local community and volunteer groups that provide these community supports. The National Post reported on this exact scenario that played out at a food bank in Brampton, Ontario which had to disallow international students from seeking free food when supplies became so low. A food bank in Brampton is saying no to international students | National Post
• The increased demand for affordable housing and the additional strain on local food banks due to an influx of international students may also put additional strain on local churches and places of worship. Many international students may seek support from local churches, and they may also seek places of worship which may not be available in every municipality.
• Similarly, an influx of international students may also put additional strain on local health care services in provinces that provide public healthcare.
• Lastly, and according to Canadian federal immigration data, international students filed a record 20,245 asylum claims in 2024 and the 2025 numbers are expected to rise. Increases in asylum claims further strains local resources at all levels of government including the municipal level. Foreign student asylum claims hit record high in 2024, set to grow in 2025 — National | Globalnews.ca

Due, in part, to the above potential challenges, and as mentioned in the opening paragraph, the Federal Government of Canada imposed a cap on international students in 2024.

In 2024, Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) capped the number of study permit applications that could be accepted for processing to keep our program strong and help ease the strain on housing, health care and other services. This measure has reduced the number of international students coming to Canada by about 40% and also eased pressures in the rental markets with high student populations. 2025 provincial and territorial allocations under the international student cap — Canada.ca

Before this article gets too depressing, let’s now look into the potential opportunities that private post-secondary institutions, and the international students they target, can bring to a municipality.

The potential opportunities

• All post-secondary universities and colleges need to spend on staff salaries, capital construction projects, maintenance, and local services (food, landscaping, printing, etc.) and this all benefits the local economy.
• Students and faculty attending and working at post-secondary institutions spend on housing, transportation, retail, dining, etc., which props up housing values and helps local businesses thrive.
• Post-secondary institutions often host conferences, events, and campus tours which all draw visitors who spend money on hotels, dining, and entertainment further supporting businesses within a municipality.
• Universities and colleges are often among the largest local employers in a municipality, employing faculty, staff, researchers, maintenance workers, etc.
• Local graduates with post-secondary credentials raise the skill level of the regional labour pool, attracting high-value employers and supporting local industries’ needs.
• Many universities have tech-transfer offices that help launch spin-off companies, create patents, and support incubators or accelerators, all of which supports business growth which in turn increases municipal government revenue.
• Research and development (R&D) partnerships with nearby companies fosters innovation, leading to new products, jobs, and revenue streams wihtin a municipality. Over time, a strong university presence can nurture specialized clusters like the Olds College Centre for Innovation in Olds, Alberta.
• Large capital projects (residence halls, research labs, etc.) can revitalize neighbourhoods, raise property assessment values, and lead to improvements in local infrastructure.
• Students and staff often volunteer with local non-profits, schools, or community programs enhancing the supports within the municipality.
• Many diploma and degree programs offered by institutions integrate service-learning courses that address community challenges (e.g., health clinics, legal aid, tutoring), all of which greatly benefit a municipality.
• Local residents would have better opportunities for continuing education, adult learning, or workforce retraining.
• Partnerships with K–12 schools and local government agencies could improve local educational outcomes and reduce social disparities.

To further outline the above points, the Conference Board of Canada, in its December 2021 paper titled “How Ontario Universities Benefit Regional Economies,” outlined that “the combined impact of spending from university activities ($45.6 billion) and human capital development ($50.6 billion) is $96.2 billion annually…” How Ontario Universities Benefit Regional Economies: Assessing the Regional Economic Impacts of Universities in Ontario

In addition, a recent University of Alberta Economic Impact Study, conducted by R.A. Malatest & Associates Ltd., outlined the following:

The University of Alberta (U of A) generates considerable economic impacts through its direct operations. These impacts include the direct, indirect and induced effects associated with the operations of an institution that employs thousands of staff and provides education to in excess of 42,000 full-time students. The results of the study suggest that the total economic impact associated with the University was nearly $19.4 billion in 2021/2022, although not all of this impact occurred only in 2021/2022. u-of-a-economic-impact-study-report.pdf

From a strictly economic standpoint post-secondary institutions are clearly major economic drivers of the economy.

Many of the above listed opportunities are discussed in greater detail in the following article. The Vital Role of International Students in Canada and the Need for Sustainable Support Systems — Academica Forum

The Conclusion

Taking all of the above into consideration, the potential opportunities that international students bring to the economy of local municipalities and the country of Canada as a whole, far out weight the potential challenges.

Although, there has seemingly been more negative news than positive news on this topic recently, and although some modifications to Canada’s immigration model are needed, the Canadian Government should increase support to post-secondary institutions and work to attract more international students and not less. Increasing support will ensure that Canada remains a great place for international students to receive their post-secondary education, find high-paying jobs, raise a family and continue to contribute meaningfully to the Canadian economy and the Canadian way of life.

As a final thought and when we observe the reductions in Federal support to historic post-secondary institutions occurring in the U.S. at the moment, Canada might be perfectly poised to double-down their support for post-secondary institutions (both public and private) ensuring that our Municipal, Provincial and Federal economies continue to grow and that Canada may one day truly be the preferred destination for the world’s best and brightest students throughout the world.

Should Municipalities Target Private Post-Secondary Institutions? was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Economists Douglas Curtis and Ian Irvine (2017) define inflation as “the annual percentage increase in the level of consumer prices” (p. 44). That might sound abstract, but in real life, it means your paycheck doesn’t go as far as it used to. And for many Canadians, that gap between income and expenses is becoming a source of constant stress.

In 2023, 71% of Canadian women reported that inflation had negatively affected their mental health (Benefits Canada, 2023). Financial stress is now one of the most common reasons people seek mental health support (Mental Health Research Canada, 2023). So how exactly does inflation — an economic phenomenon — translate into emotional strain?

But why does this happen? Why does inflation, a seemingly economic phenomenon, cause anxiety, burnout, and emotional fatigue?

Have you felt it? The stress of stretching a fixed budget? The guilt of saying no to your kids because groceries ate up your pay? The fear of starting something new, like school or a business, because costs keep rising? If you have, you’re not alone. The rising cost of living in Canada isn’t just affecting our wallets — it’s eroding our sense of security and emotional resilience.

In this blog, we’ll explore how inflation affects Canadians on a psychological level by looking at three key economic concepts: purchasing power, cost of living, and real wages. We’ll also examine who is hit hardest, what’s being done about it, and what more we can do to support each other — economically and emotionally.

The Economic Link — Why It Hits Canadians So Hard

Understanding the emotional toll of inflation starts with understanding the financial pressure that’s fueling it. And for many Canadians right now, that pressure is intense — and growing.

Purchasing Power: What Your Loonie Can (No Longer) Buy

Let’s talk about purchasing power — that’s the value of a dollar, or how much you can actually buy with it. These days, that loonie in your wallet doesn’t stretch as far. If prices go up but your income stays the same, you’re effectively getting less for every dollar spent.

This shows up in everyday ways. A grocery bill that used to be $200 might now cost $250 for the same items. You’re not buying more, but you’re paying more — and that’s frustrating. It forces people to make uncomfortable decisions: cut back on fresh produce, skip outings, or put off dental appointments. Over time, those trade-offs take a mental toll.

Economists like Curtis and Irvine (2017) point out that while government programs and subsidies can help temporarily boost purchasing power, they rarely cover the entire gap (pp. 144–145). It’s a short-term patch on a long-term leak.

Cost of Living: Climbing a Mountain with No Summit

If it feels like everything is more expensive these days, you’re not imagining it. The cost of living in Canada has been rising steadily — especially in cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and more recently, Calgary. Rent, groceries, gas, daycare — you name it, it’s more expensive.

Cost of living simply means how much money you need to meet basic needs. And in Canada, those needs are getting harder to afford. According to Statistics Canada, food prices alone were up over 10% in 2023. That’s pushed many families to the brink — turning to food banks, skipping meals, or carrying debt just to stay afloat.

Curtis and Irvine (2017) explain that when prices climb but incomes don’t, real financial hardship sets in (p. 142). And it’s not just about money anymore — it’s about health, relationships, and peace of mind.

Real Wages: Earning More but Affording Less

Here’s something a lot of people are struggling with: even if you got a raise last year, you might still be falling behind. That’s because of real wages — your earnings adjusted for inflation.

So let’s say you received a 2% raise, but inflation rose by 4%. That means your real wage actually fell by 2%. You’re technically earning more, but you can afford less. That’s the kind of math that doesn’t feel fair.

Curtis and Irvine (2017) note that inflation and taxes can quietly erode the value of what we earn (pp. 142–144). And the impact of that erosion doesn’t stay on the spreadsheet — it follows us home, shows up in our stress levels, and impacts our overall sense of wellbeing.

Financial Pressure = Emotional Strain

These economic forces — shrinking purchasing power, rising cost of living, and declining real wages — aren’t just numbers. They’re deeply personal, and they’re wearing people down.

Nearly half of Canadians now say rising prices have significantly impacted their ability to meet day-to-day expenses — that’s up from just one-third in 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2024). The impact is especially harsh for low-income earners, renters, young adults, and people living with disabilities — many of whom already face systemic challenges.

Perhaps most striking: only 17% of people experiencing high financial stress reported high life satisfaction. Compare that to 70% among those with low financial stress. When people are constantly worried about money, it’s hard to feel hopeful or at peace. In fact, just 35% of people with high financial stress said they felt optimistic about the future (Statistics Canada, 2024).

Inflation doesn’t just empty wallets — it chips away at our mental health, our family time, and our sense of control. But the weight of that stress doesn’t fall equally on everyone. For some, it means cutting back on small luxuries. For others, it means choosing between rent and groceries. To understand the full mental health impact, we need to look at the groups who are being hit the hardest — and how they’re coping.

Who Is Affected and How

While inflation touches all Canadians, certain groups — youth, seniors on fixed incomes, families with young children, and students — find themselves facing much steeper climbs up this economic mountain.

Youth: Navigating Financial Strain Amid Rising Costs

Young Canadians are grappling with escalating living expenses. More than half of individuals aged 25 to 44 reported that rising prices significantly affected their ability to meet day-to-day expenses (Statistics Canada, 2024a).

This stress correlates directly with declining mental health among youth. According to Statistics Canada (2023a), only 40% of youth reported excellent or very good mental health in early 2020, down from 60% in 2019.

Seniors on Fixed Incomes: Coping with Inflation

Seniors, particularly those relying on fixed incomes, are vulnerable to inflation. In 2023, the median after-tax income for senior families was $79,700, a modest 3.4% increase from 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2025).

However, some seniors continue working to supplement their income. In 2022, just over one in five seniors aged 65 to 74 (21%) were employed, with nearly half working out of necessity rather than choice (Statistics Canada, 2024b).

Families with Young Children: Struggling with Childcare Expenses

Childcare remains a significant expense for Canadian families. In 2023, parents using full-time non-relative childcare, such as nannies, paid an average of $2,711 per month (Statistics Canada, 2023b).

Efforts to reduce childcare fees are underway. The federal government’s initiative aims for an average fee of $10 a day by 2026 for all regulated child care spaces (Statistics Canada, 2023c).

Students: Balancing Education Costs and Living Expenses

Post-secondary students face increasing tuition fees and living costs. In the 2023/2024 academic year, Canadian undergraduate students paid an average tuition of $7,076 — a 3.0% increase from the previous year (Statistics Canada, 2023d).

These rising costs, along with expenses for housing and transportation, contribute to significant financial stress among students.

What’s Being Done?

Where Psychology Meets Economics in Canada’s Inflation Battle

With so many Canadians — from young adults to seniors to families — struggling under mounting financial pressure, the question becomes: what’s actually being done to help? The response has involved both economic policy and mental health support, but how effective are these efforts?

Interest Rate Hikes: Cooling the Economy at a Cost

The Bank of Canada’s primary tool against inflation has been raising interest rates. The logic? Higher rates discourage borrowing and spending, which should ease inflation over time. From an economic standpoint, this tightening is necessary to stabilize prices and preserve long-term purchasing power (Bank of Canada, 2024).

But from a psychological lens, the immediate fallout can be severe. Rising mortgage payments, increased credit card interest, and fewer affordable loans translate to more anxiety for consumers. For example, Statistics Canada reported that over one-third of mortgage holders saw their payments rise between 2022 and 2023, with many expressing concern about their ability to keep up (Statistics Canada, 2024). This uncertainty feeds a cycle of stress and emotional strain — especially for those already living paycheck to paycheck.

While the Bank of Canada tackles inflation through monetary policy, governments have also tried more direct approaches to ease the burden on struggling families.

Subsidies and Relief Programs: Targeted but Temporary

To soften the blow, federal and provincial governments have introduced various subsidies: GST credits, climate action rebates, and top-ups to child benefits. These can make a difference, particularly for low-income Canadians (Government of Canada, 2023).

Yet, many economists argue that such support is often reactive rather than proactive. While helpful in the short term, it rarely addresses systemic issues like wage stagnation or housing unaffordability. And psychologically, the temporary nature of these supports can leave people feeling insecure. Knowing that relief is short-lived can perpetuate feelings of uncertainty and limit people’s sense of control — a key component of mental wellbeing.

Alongside these economic measures, there’s been growing recognition that financial stress requires mental health support as well.

Mental Health Resources: Progress with Gaps

On the public health side, provinces have increased investments in mental health services. For example, Alberta announced $92 million in 2023 to expand access to community-based mental health and addiction support (Government of Alberta, 2023). Meanwhile, British Columbia has launched programs focused on youth mental health and financial literacy education.

However, gaps remain. Many services face long wait times, and rural or marginalized populations still lack access. From a psychological perspective, when people feel unsupported or unable to reach help, stress becomes chronic — leading to burnout, anxiety, or even depression.

Economic recovery isn’t just about numbers — it’s about people. While Canada is making efforts to combat inflation through interest rate hikes and subsidies, the psychological fallout shows that financial stability alone isn’t enough. But what does this intersection of economics and mental health actually look like in people’s daily lives?

The Human Impact: When Economics Meets Psychology in Everyday Lives

Imagine Sarah, a 35-year-old single mother in Toronto working two part-time jobs. Despite her hard work, rising prices mean she often must choose between paying rent or buying groceries. This ongoing financial juggling act creates constant anxiety, affecting her sleep, mood, and ability to focus at work. Sarah’s story echoes the reality for many Canadians struggling under the weight of inflation and stagnant wages.

The Mental Health Commission of Canada (2024) highlights how the rising cost of living directly correlates with increased mental health challenges, including stress, anxiety, and depression. The report shows that nearly 40% of Canadians feel their mental health has worsened due to financial strain.

From an economic perspective, this interplay between financial pressure and psychological wellbeing is a classic example of scarcity’s cognitive load. Research by Oreopoulos and French (2017) demonstrates how scarcity — the feeling of having too little — impairs decision-making and self-control, which perpetuates financial hardship and emotional distress. When individuals are preoccupied with meeting basic needs, their mental bandwidth shrinks, limiting their capacity to plan for the future or seek help.

Canada’s historic Universal Basic Income experiment in the 1970s showed that providing a guaranteed income reduced stress and improved mental health for recipients (BBC, 2020). This suggests that economic support policies have direct psychological benefits, reducing the emotional toll of economic uncertainty.

Despite recent interest rate hikes aiming to curb inflation (TD Economics, 2024), the Mental Health Commission warns that without targeted subsidies or social programs, vulnerable groups — like low-income families and youth — continue to face severe financial and psychological strain. Behavioral economics approaches, such as “nudging” individuals toward financial literacy and resource access, offer promising tools to mitigate these effects (Moving Worlds, 2023).

Sarah’s story is more than hypothetical. It represents a growing population caught in the intersection of economic hardship and mental health challenges. Understanding this intersection is crucial for crafting policies that protect both financial stability and psychological well being.

Actionable Elements

What You Can Do: Resources and Support for Canadians

If you’re feeling the weight of rising costs and financial stress, you’re not alone — and there are concrete steps you can take to find support and regain some control.

Mental Health Support

Alberta: Talk to someone, Call 2–1–1 or text INFO to 2–1–1.

British Columbia: Navigate to https://helpstartshere.gov.bc.ca/

Manitoba: Navigate to https://www.gov.mb.ca/mhcw/

New Brunswick: Talk to someone, Dial 2–1–1, or call 1–855–258–4126 (toll-free).

Newfoundland and Labrador: Navigate to https://www.gov.nl.ca/hcs/mentalhealth-committee/mentalhealth/

Northwest Territories: Navigate to https://www.hss.gov.nt.ca/en/services/mental-wellness-and-addictions-recovery

Nova Scotia: Navigate to https://novascotia.ca/mental-health-and-wellbeing/

Nunavut: Navigate to https://www.gov.nu.ca/en/health/mental-health-resources?msclkid=e1531244bd9311ec9dd9e9ec7bb8b80b

Ontario: Navigate to https://www.ontario.ca/page/find-mental-health-support

Prince Edward Island: Navigate to https://www.princeedwardisland.ca/en/information/health-pei/mental-health-support-and-services

Quebec: Talk to someone, Dial 8–1–1.

Saskatchewan: Navigate to https://www.saskatchewan.ca/residents/health/accessing-health-care-services/mental-health-and-addictions-support-services/mental-health-support/mental-health-services

Yukon: Talk to someone, Call 867–456–3838 or 1–866–456–3838 (toll free).

It’s Not Just the Price Tag

When we talk about inflation, it’s easy to get lost in headlines about interest rates or grocery prices. But what’s often left out of the conversation is how those rising costs make people feel — anxious, overwhelmed, and stretched beyond their limits.

This isn’t just about dollars and cents. It’s about parents skipping meals so their kids can eat. It’s about students second-guessing whether they can afford to finish school. It’s about seniors quietly carrying the stress of bills they can’t keep up with.

Yes, inflation is an economic issue. But as we’ve seen, it’s just as much a mental health issue. And in Canada today, both need to be addressed — together.

If we want people to not just survive but thrive with dignity, then economic policy has to be more than numbers on a spreadsheet. It needs to reflect the real emotional toll that financial stress takes. That means more accessible mental health support, more consistent financial relief, and stronger safety nets for those slipping through the cracks.

Because no Canadian should have to choose between paying for food or preserving their peace of mind.

References

Bank of Canada. (2019). Inflation-Control Target. Bankofcanada.ca. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/

BBC. (2020, June 24). Canada’s forgotten universal basic income experiment. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200624-canadas-forgotten-universal-basic-income-experiment

CORE Econ. Prices and wages. CORE: The Economy. https://www.core-econ.org/the-economy/macroeconomics/01-supply-side-macroeconomy-04-prices-wages.html

Costs beyond currency: Exploring the mental health impact of inflation, food insecurity and housing situation in Canada. (2024). https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f31a311d93d0f2e28aaf04a/t/663bd756fa709d371333c196/1715197786340/Mental+Health+Impact+of+Food+Insecurity%2C+Housing+Insecurity+and+Inflation+In+CAnada.pdf

Curtis, D., & Irvine, I. (2017). Principles of Microeconomics: An Open Text (VERSION 2017 — REVISION B, pp. 44, 142–145). Lyryx. https://archive.org/details/2017PrinciplesOfMicroeconomics

Empower. What is purchasing power and why does it matter? Empower. https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/purchasing-power

Fiveable. Cost of living. Fiveable. https://fiveable.me/key-terms/principles-macroeconomics/cost-living

HelpStartsHere. HelpStartsHere. https://helpstartshere.gov.bc.ca/

Istockphoto. (2024). Woman stressed bills. https://www.istockphoto.com/illustrations/woman-stressed-bills

Mental Health and Addictions — Health and Community Services. (2020, February 20). Health and Community Services. https://www.gov.nl.ca/hcs/mentalhealth-committee/mentalhealth/

Mental Health Commission of Canada. (2024). Mental health and the high cost of living. https://mentalhealthcommission.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Mental-Health-and-The-High-Cost-of-Living.pdf

Mental Health Resources. (2025, May 31). Government of Nunavut. https://www.gov.nu.ca/en/health/mental-health-resources?msclkid=e1531244bd9311ec9dd9e9ec7bb8b80b

Mental Health Services | Mental Health Support. Government of Saskatchewan. https://www.saskatchewan.ca/residents/health/accessing-health-care-services/mental-health-and-addictions-support-services/mental-health-support/mental-health-services

Ministry of Health. (2019, January 29). Find mental health support. Ontario.ca. https://www.ontario.ca/page/find-mental-health-support

Moving Worlds. (2023). Behavioral economics for social impact. https://movingworlds.org/behavioral-economics-for-social-impact

Oreopoulos, P., & French, D. (2017). Applying behavioral economics to public policy in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics. https://oreopoulos.faculty.economics.utoronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/french-and-oreopoulos-applying-behavioural-economics-to-public-policy-in-Canada-cje-2017.pdf

Province of Manitoba | Mental Health and Addictions. Province of Manitoba. https://www.gov.mb.ca/mhcw/

Public Health Agency of Canada. (2024, August 13). Mental health support: Get help. Canada.ca. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/mental-health-services/mental-health-get-help.html

Scotia, C. N. (2020, April 22). Mental health and wellbeing. https://novascotia.ca/mental-health-and-wellbeing/

Services, H. and S. Mental wellness and addictions recovery. Government of Northwest Territories. https://www.hss.gov.nt.ca/en/services/mental-wellness-and-addictions-recovery

Statistics Canada. (2023, March 21). Prices accelerate for various food items. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230221/cg-a003-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. (2023a, September 20). Navigating socioeconomic obstacles: Impact on the well-being of Canadian youth. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230920/dq230920a-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. (2023b, December 5). Child care arrangements, 2023. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231205/dq231205a-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. (2023c, July 26). Economic and social reports: Early childhood education and care. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230726/dq230726a-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. (2023d, September 6). Tuition fees for degree programs, 2023/2024. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230906/dq230906d-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. (2024, August 15). Nearly half of Canadians report that rising prices are greatly impacting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses [StatCan Daily]. Government of Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240815/dq240815b-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. (2024a, August 15). Nearly half of Canadians report that rising prices are greatly impacting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240815/dq240815b-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. (2024b, August 15). Retirement? Mortgage balance, interest rates, higher consumer prices among factors to consider. https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/6905-retirement-mortgage-balance-interest-rates-higher-consumer-prices-among-factors-consider

Statistics Canada. (2025, May 1). Canadian income survey, 2023. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250501/dq250501b-eng.htm

TD Economics. (2024). Federal fiscal update. https://economics.td.com/federal-fiscal-update

Toolkit, W. E. (2023, October 25). Mental health support and services. www.princeedwardisland.ca. https://www.princeedwardisland.ca/en/information/health-pei/mental-health-support-and-services

Mind Over Money: The Hidden Strain Inflation Is Putting on Canadian Minds was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

From Basement Startup to Global Sales

Ponyback officially launched in June 2020, just months into the COVID-19 pandemic. It started in Stacey’s basement with a sewing machine and a problem: Why wasn’t there a hat that comfortably fit over a ponytail? Fast-forward to today, and her company now has warehouses in Canada, the U.S., and Australia, with the majority of her sales previously coming from American customers.

But growth hasn’t come easy. Stacey navigated manufacturing challenges, marketing pivots, and most notably — the shifting landscape of cross-border trade and inflation.

Section 321: The Policy That Changed Everything

A major economic hurdle for Ponyback came when the U.S. government repealed or limited access to Section 321, a trade provision that previously allowed Canadian businesses to ship low-value packages (under USD $800) into the U.S. duty-free(U.S. Customs and Border Protection, n.d.).

“It flipped our entire market,” Stacey explained. “The U.S. used to be over half our business. Overnight, we were hit with duties and delays that we had little time to plan for.”

For small businesses like Ponyback, this kind of change doesn’t just mean extra paperwork. It impacts pricing, profit margins, and customer satisfaction. Stacey noted that while her Canadian sales have remained stable, it’s been difficult to regain traction in the U.S. market since these changes.

Inflation and Rising Input Costs

It’s no secret that inflation has affected everything from groceries to gas — but for businesses, the impact is layered and ongoing. “Everything costs more now: raw materials, freight, packaging,” Stacey said.

This lines up with my economics course content on inflation, particularly its effects on cost-push inflation, where the cost of producing goods rises due to increased prices for inputs (Curtis & Irvine, 2017). For Stacey, this has meant a delicate balancing act:

• Raise prices and risk losing customers
• Absorb the cost and shrink her margins
• Renegotiate contracts to reduce risk

She’s tried all three.

“We’ve had to be extremely strategic with how we price things. Customers are more hesitant now, more selective. They’re not buying on impulse like they used to.”

Consumer Confidence and Shifting Behaviors

Stacey noticed that since mid-2023, customers have become more price sensitive and slower to make purchasing decisions. Even when ads generate interest, customers often wait days or weeks before completing a sale.

This is a real-time example of reduced consumer confidence, often seen during or following economic downturns. In economic terms, when households anticipate or experience uncertainty (e.g., about employment, interest rates, or inflation), consumption spending drops (Curtis & Irvine, 2017).

To adapt, Ponyback has embraced pricing software, tested different discount structures, and leaned into community-building to keep customers engaged longer.

Growth Strategy in a Risk-Averse Climate

One of the most interesting insights Stacey shared was how her mindset around growth has changed. Early in the company’s journey, a viral TikTok video helped them scale rapidly. But more recently, she’s shifted from high-growth tactics to “slow and steady stability.”

“We’re not chasing hockey-stick growth right now. That comes with risk — and burnout. Right now, it’s about maintaining profitability and preserving energy.”

This shift mirrors broader economic discussions on opportunity cost and the risks of over-leveraging during volatile times. Instead of taking on additional loans or chasing aggressive expansion, Stacey is focusing on system improvements, smart hiring, and leveraging organic marketing channels.

Policy Gaps: Who Gets Left Behind?

When asked about support from the government, Stacey admitted that most funding programs aren’t designed for small e-commerce brands like hers.

“They’re built for manufacturers or startups in tech. We’re in this weird space — not traditional retail, but not fully digital either.”

Even when she applied for export development grants, the paperwork burden was intense. This suggests that policymakers may be underestimating how many Canadian microbusinesses operate in hybrid, online-first models that don’t fit traditional categories.

What Other Entrepreneurs Can Learn

Ponyback’s experience highlights several key economic lessons:

• Trade policy matters, even for small online businesses. When governments alter the rules, even seemingly minor ones, small firms feel it fastest.
• Inflation isn’t abstract. It shows up in product costs, shipping, and packaging.
• Customer behavior changes, often in ways that aren’t visible in macro data until much later.
• Flexibility and creativity can make or break a business during turbulent times.

Stacey also emphasized that rest, reflection, and sustainable systems are just as valuable as strategic plans.

Final Thoughts

Interviewing Stacey made the real-world impact of economic policy come alive. Behind every trade deal, tariff, or interest rate decision is a ripple effect that touches people, families, and businesses in tangible ways.

What Ponyback is doing — navigating policy shifts, adapting to inflation, and staying focused on long-term health over short-term gains — is what many small businesses are quietly doing across Canada. And it’s a story worth listening to.

References

Curtis, D., & Irvine, I. (2017). Principles of microeconomics: 2017B edition. BCampus. https://opentextbc.ca/principlesofmicroeconomics2e/

Keller, S. (2025, May). Interview by J. Egan [Personal communication].

Ponyback. (2023, May 9). [Photograph collage of multiple models][Photograph]. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=596585582767102&set=a.221411186951212

Ponyback. (2023, October 31). [Photograph of Ponyback hat] [Photograph]. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=658704809888512&set=pb.100072469955594.-2207520000&type=3

Ponyback. (2024, January 9). [Photograph of Ponyback hat models] [Photograph]. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=663186982773628&set=pb.100072469955594.-2207520000&type=3

U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (n.d.). Section 321 programs. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. https://www.cbp.gov/trade/trade-enforcement/tftea/section-321-programs

How Trade Policy and Inflation Reshaped a Canadian Startup: Lessons from Ponyback’s Founder was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Introduction

“Productivity isn’t everything, but, in the long run, it is almost everything .”— Paul Krugman

As inflation, high interest rates and trade wars grab headlines to define the current economic downturn, a deeper crisis is quietly unfolding in the background — stagnating productivity. In March 2024, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada tried to raise an alarm regarding the productivity problem, stating “you’ve seen those signs that say, “in emergency, break glass.” Well, it’s time to break the glass.”

Productivity refers to how efficiently and effectively labour is combined with other resources to produce goods and services and is commonly measured through labour productivity, the ratio of output (GDP) to the number of hours worked. It is a key determinant of a nation’s economic growth and overall standard of living.

Historically, Alberta has basked in the glory of having the highest labour productivity in Canada, mostly due to high capital investment in the oil and gas sector. While the province remains highly productive relative to other provinces, that productivity advantage is shrinking.

In 2013–2023, Alberta experienced the lowest productivity growth rate among all provinces.

While the concept can be abstract, there are real concerns regarding whether Alberta’s businesses are effectively adapting to the modern high-tech, high-skilled economy or clinging to old safeguards.

This blog post explores how structural issues compounded by business attitudes, investment strategies and firm behaviour are shaping Alberta’s limited capital investment. We will see that there is no single solution for the underinvestment in capital and productivity decline in the province, while highlighting some innovative strategies Alberta’s government can do to reignite the engine of investment by changing attitudes, reducing fear, and fostering a culture of innovation.

Alberta’s Capital Investment Freeze: A Story of Numbers

Capital Intensity refers to the effectiveness of equipping workers with better tools through investments in machinery and equipment, technology, infrastructure and other assets. An increase in capital per worker generally means more output per worker, “labour productivity and investment go together…Investment increases productivity by equipping workers with better tools” (Robson and Bafale, 2024).

In recent years however, Alberta’s capital investment has been slowing.

Data from Statistics Canada shows that Alberta’s non-residential business investment declined by 1.4 per cent in 2023. This was largely led by reduced investments on engineering construction as well as machinery and equipment. Sectors seeing an overall reduction in investments include agriculture, oil and gas, manufacturing, wholesale trade and transportation.

Alberta also saw a 2 per cent decline in gross fixed capital formation from 2022 to 2023 across business sectors. The data indicates that while investment in intellectual property rose by around 8 per cent, investments in non-residential structures and machinery and equipment declined by around 6.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively.

This matters, because when firms delay upgrading machinery or adopting technology, they freeze productivity growth. Despite clear global sifts towards automation, artificial intelligence (AI) and digital transformation, Albertan businesses lack the motivation to invest.

Why Albertan Firms are Holding Back on Capital Investment

If capital investment is key to productivity growth, then why are Albertan firms not investing to see efficiency gains and grow? Results from Statistics Canada’s 2022 survey on “reasons for not adopting or using advanced technologies” provide some amount of insight.

Researchers and economists have written extensively on what continues to drive these negative attitudes towards capital investment and adoption. They argue that it is a reflection of Canada’s wider economic policies and structural realities as well as a weak entrepreneurial and risk-taking culture. We explore some of the more prevalent drivers of low capital investment below:

1. Risk Aversion in a Volatile Climate

“Why take a $2 million risk when I can just maintain what’s working?”

Capital investments and projects are often expensive, long-term and irreversible. During a downturn, capital investments become even more of a gamble. As noted by Schembri (2017), capital investment becomes riskier during an economic downturn because projects often require large, irretrievable costs and depend on uncertain future demand — expectations that are easily shaken and reinforced by broader declines in business confidence and peer behaviour.

In Alberta, where energy cycles have trained firms to be cautious, this risk-averse mindset is especially entrenched. Rather than lead with investment, many firms prefer to follow — and in a downturn, that means doing nothing.

2. The ‘Good Enough’ Profit Trap

“We’re making money. Why rock the boat?”

A surprising number of firms report profitability even without modern equipment or advanced technology. In low-competition environments — like rural services, regional manufacturing or niche oilfield services — firms often maintain profit margins through legacy practices and relationships, not productivity.

As seen in a 2013 report by the Council of Canadian Academies titled “Paradox Lost: Explaining Canada’s Research Strength and Innovation weakness”, aggregate profitability ratios of Canadian businesses in their chosen niche have matched or exceeded those in the United States. The authors go on to highlight that “with little motivation to change a successful formula, many firms have settled into a “low-innovation equilibrium” that has conditioned business habits and ambitions and shaped the predominant business culture in Canada.”

3. Constraints to Affordability and Access

“We’d love to invest, but the cost just doesn’t work right now.”

Porter (2023) in his analysis of Canada’s productivity puzzle highlights that capital investment and weak productivity growth can be attributed to structural realities like the relatively small scale of domestic businesses and markets. For smaller firms especially, capital investments are often unaffordable. High interest rates, limited access to financing and thin margines can make technological adoption and upgrades out of reach.

According to Statistics Canada Alberta had the most small businesses (1–99 employees) per 1000 of individuals over 18 in 2022. This statistic is not surprising, as estimates reveal that small firms are relatively more important in the Canadian economy than to the US (Baldwin, Leung and Rispoli, 2014). This could have a negative impact on productivity growth, as research shows small firms often lag in digital transformation and are disproportionately affected by market failures, trade barriers, policy inefficiencies and the quality of institutions while also lacking the resources and incentives to adopt technology or invest in research and development. (OECD, 2019) (BDO Canada, 2025)

4. Lack of Competitive Pressure

“No one else in our industry is upgrading, so why should we?”

Economists have commonly cited a lack of competition in a variety of industries and sectors as one of the culprits of low capital investment and lagging productivity growth. Competition is important as it encourages businesses to innovate and invest in

productivity-enhancing capital to become more efficient. As Deslauriers, Gagne and Pare (2022) note, “the logic is relatively simple: when competitive intensity reaches a certain threshold, companies must normally take steps to preserve or even increase their market share. They are driven to invest and innovate if they wish to remain competitive. These activities encourage short-term economic growth thanks to the productivity gains they bring about…”

According to a 2023 report by the Competition Bureau of Canada, competitive intensity decreased from 2000 to 2020 — indicating that there was a decline in how hard businesses felt they need to work to gain an advantage over their rivals. Without the threat of rivals gaining an edge through innovation or efficiency, firms often see little urgency to modernize operations or invest in new technology. This behaviour is typical within competitive markets as “firms make conjectures about how their competitors will react and incorporate such reactions into their own planning. Competition between suppliers can frequently be analyzed in terms of a game.”

How Alberta can Ignite the Investment Culture

The result of reduced capital intensity is stagnating productivity. It creates a scenario where workers are not being empowered with better tools, and firms are missing opportunities to scale, optimize or innovate. In the long term, Alberta is at risk of becoming an economic laggard — dependent on volatile resource cycles while competitors automate, digitize and scale up more efficiently.

The core challenge isn’t simply cost, but more so about beliefs, incentives and environment.

Reversing the capital investment slowdown and boosting productivity, requires a multipronged approach. Instead of addressing one symptom, Alberta needs bold, culture-changing public policy that addresses not just affordability, but also confidence, competition and strategic ambition. Here are three possible strategies:

1. A “Risk Rebate” Capital Investment Program

• What: A financial program that provides partial reimbursements to firms for capital investments that don’t generate expected productivity gains.
• Who: For firms that are ready to purchase or adopt machinery, equipment, technology or other innovations but fear the risks.
• How: Delivery options include a grant that reimburses a percentage of cost of the investment or a tax-credit.
• Why it works: This reduces the downside risk of investment, addressing real options theory concerns. It encourages experimentation and makes failure less punitive for firms.

2. A Productivity Commission

• What: Creation of a Productivity Commission that is tasked with identifying and understanding productivity trends, creating public campaigns to boost business productivity through industry relations, maintain a public dashboard showing anonymized productivity and capital intensity data by sector and region, along with benchmarks and publish productivity reports based on case studies.
• Who: For potential and existing firms.
• How: Establishing a Productivity Commission as an agency of the government with a mandate to enhance productivity within the province.
• Why it works: Knowledge drives cultural change and visibility creates accountability. If firms understand the importance of productivity while having visual tools on where they rank, and how leaders in their industry are investing, it can drive a cultural shift.

3. A Commercialization and Champions Voucher Program

• What: Publicly funded vouchers that allow SMEs to either adopt innovations developed in Alberta or work with vetted “digital champions” such as consultants, tech integrators or peer mentors on how to choose, finance and implement capital investments.
• Who: Firms seeking to adopt technology and innovations in Alberta.
• How: Creating an ecosystem that brings together Universities, Innovators, Businesses and Accelerators.
• Why it works: Many firms don’t invest because they don’t know where to start while many innovators struggle to commercialize their inventions. This builds literacy, confidence and partnerships in a low-risk way.

Conclusion: Productivity as a Mindset

Capital intensity is more than just an economic metric for productivity — it’s a reflection of belief in the future. In Alberta, years of prosperity built on resource wealth have created a culture where caution, legacy systems and “good enough” performance dominate firm strategy. But the world is changing, and Alberta risks falling behind if businesses continue to treat capital investment as optional or too risky. The current economic downturn, as challenging as it is, offers a powerful opportunity to reframe this mindset.

To move forward, Alberta must recognize that increasing capital investment is not just about affordability — it’s about shifting attitudes, improving confidence, and sparking ambition. Firms that invest boldly today will be the ones shaping tomorrow’s economy. But to ignite that kind of transformation, bold public leadership is essential. By reducing downside risk, enhancing transparency, building trust in institutions, and promoting real competition, Alberta can create an environment where risk-taking is rewarded, not feared.

This is more than economic recovery — it’s cultural renewal. The province can’t afford to waste this moment. The question isn’t whether Alberta can become a productivity leader again, but whether it has the courage to rethink how progress happens.

References

Baldwin, J. R., Leung, D., & Rispoli, L. (2014). Canada–United States labour productivity gap across firm size classes (The Canadian Productivity Review, №033; Catalogue №15–206-X). Statistics Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/15-206-x/15-206-x2014033-eng.pdf

BDO Canada. (2025, February 24). Canada’s productivity paradox. https://www.bdo.ca/insights/canada-s-productivity-paradox

Colford, C. (2016, November 15). Productivity for prosperity: “In the long run, it is almost everything”. World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/psd/productivity-prosperity-long-run-it-almost-everything

Competition Bureau Canada. (2023). Competition in Canada from 2000 to 2020: An economy at a crossroads (Catalogue No. Iu54–125/2023E-PDF). Government of Canada. https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2024/isde-ised/Iu54-125-2023-eng.pdf

Council of Canadian Academies. (2013). Paradox lost: Explaining Canada’s research strength and innovation weakness. Advisory Group, Council of Canadian Academies. https://cca-reports.ca/reports/paradox-lost-explaining-canadas-research-strength-and-innovation-weakness/

Curtis, D., & Irvine, I. (2017). Principles of microeconomics (Version 2017 — Revision B). Lyryx Learning. https://archive.org/details/2017PrinciplesOfMicroeconomics

Deslauriers, J., Gagné, R., & Paré, J. (2022, November). Canada’s lagging productivity: Could the problem be insufficient competition? Centre for Productivity and Prosperity — Walter J. Somers Foundation, HEC Montréal. https://cpp.hec.ca/en/canadas-lagging-productivity-could-the-problem-be-insufficient-competition/

Edmonton Regional Innovation Network. (2024, December 10). Alberta unveils plan to lead in AI and data innovation [Image]. Edmonton RIN. https://www.edmontonrin.ca/erinfo/alberta-unveils-plan-to-lead-in-ai-and-data-innovation

OECD. (2019). Strengthening SMEs and entrepreneurship for productivity and inclusive growth: OECD 2018 Ministerial Conference on SMEs. OECD Studies on SMEs and Entrepreneurship. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/c19b6f97-en

Robson, W. B. P., & Bafale, M. (2024, September 12). Underequipped: How weak capital investment hurts Canadian prosperity and what to do about it (Commentary №666). C.D. Howe Institute. https://cdhowe.org/publication/underequipped-how-weak-capital-investment-hurts-canadian-prosperity-and-what/

Porter, D. (2023, November 3). Canada’s perennial productivity puzzle. BMO Economics. https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/ac91d4fe-be13-4b37-874c-33713b6cc2f5/

Rogers, C. (2024, March 26). Time to break the glass: Fixing Canada’s productivity problem. Bank of Canada. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/time-to-break-the-glass-fixing-canadas-productivity-problem/

Statistics Canada. (2025). Table 36–10–0480–01: Labour productivity and related measures by business sector industry and by non-commercial activity consistent with the industry accounts [Data table]. https://doi.org/10.25318/3610048001-eng

Statistics Canada. (2024, November 14). Table 36–10–0096–01: Flows and stocks of fixed non-residential capital, by industry and type of asset, Canada, provinces and territories [Data table]. https://doi.org/10.25318/3610009601-eng

Statistics Canada. (2024, November 7). Table 36–10–0222–01: Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual (× 1,000,000) [Data table]. https://doi.org/10.25318/3610022201-eng

Stuck in Neutral: Reprogramming Alberta’s Capital Investment Culture was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

In the past few years, how often have you said, or heard someone say something like this?

The culprit? A growing shortage of skilled tradespeople across Canada.

While inflation and supply chains often take the blame, a less visible but deeply impactful problem is gutting Canada’s economic productivity and driving up costs. The skilled trades shortage isn’t just a labour issue; it’s an economic one. When we think about skilled trades, we often picture electricians, plumbers, and auto mechanics. But the definition goes far beyond that.

Canada’s skilled trades workforce includes HVAC technicians, millwrights, heavy equipment operators, welders, machinists, bakers, and even butchers. These roles are essential not just in construction and repair, but in healthcare facility maintenance, food production, transportation, and energy infrastructure.

A growing shortage of workers in these roles doesn’t just mean longer wait times, it can halt critical services and inflate costs across the economy. From delayed school renovations to increased restaurant pricing due to understaffed kitchens, the ripple effects are widespread and disruptive.

And while many experts have proposed solutions, there’s a big catch:

There’s no single “right” way to fix it.

A Crisis That Touches Everyone

Canada is facing a projected retirement of 700,000 tradespeople by 2028, out of the 4 million who currently work in skilled trades (Government of Canada, 2022). Meanwhile, not enough new workers are entering the field. This mismatch between demand and supply has significant consequences.

According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, $38 billion in business opportunities were lost in 2022 alone due to labour shortages, particularly in construction, hospitality, transportation, and manufacturing (CFIB, 2023). These sectors are critical to Canada’s infrastructure and economy, and the shortage of skilled labour is causing delays, cost overruns, and service limitations.

Figure 1: Skilled trades intensive industries face higher than average vacancy rates.

The Solutions — And Their Trade-Offs

Expand Trade Education

This strategy focuses on increasing funding for trade schools, expanding college program capacities, and launching public awareness campaigns to change perceptions about careers in trades. While this approach can yield significant long term benefits by strengthening the domestic pipeline of skilled workers, it may not alleviate current shortages quickly. Unfortunately, Federal and Provincial governments must also focus efforts on not only attracting people to the skilled trades, but also improving the statistics around completion of the programs once entered. According to Statistics Canada, only 37% of male apprentices and 32% of female apprentices obtained their certificates within one and a half times the program duration. This indicates that a substantial number of apprentices either take longer to complete their programs or discontinue altogether.

Reform Immigration Policies

Canada’s immigration system often favors university educated applicants. Reforming the points system to give more weight to trade certifications and practical experience could help address immediate gaps. However, this requires political will and investment in integration services to ensure new arrivals are supported and retained in the workforce (Government of Canada, 2024).

Modernize the Apprenticeship System

Current regulations often limit how many apprentices a licensed tradesperson can take on. Easing these restrictions could speed up the rate at which new workers are trained. This approach may offer a relatively fast solution, particularly if paired with incentives for businesses to hire and train apprentices. Still, oversight is necessary to maintain standards.

Attract Underrepresented Groups

Women, Indigenous peoples, and newcomers remain underrepresented in many trades. Encouraging their participation through targeted outreach, scholarships, and mentorship programs could diversify the workforce and help meet labour needs. This strategy contributes both to economic growth and social equity (Government of Canada, 2022).

Leverage Technology and Re-skilling

Trades are evolving with technology. From smart diagnostics in HVAC systems to robotic tools in construction. Adapting training programs to reflect these innovations can both modernize the trades and attract tech-savvy individuals. However, this requires sustained investment in curriculum development and training facilities (Randstad, 2025).

Strategy Comparison Table

Approximately 700,000 of Canada’s 4 million skilled tradespeople are expected to retire by 2028, which represents around 17.5% of the skilled trades workforce.

Figure 2: Forecasted retirements in Canada’s skilled trades sector through 2030.

Why There’s No Single Solution

What works in urban centers like Calgary may not be appropriate for rural or remote communities. Economic theory tells us that different regions have different opportunity costs, access to education, and local industry needs. Policymakers must tailor their approaches to match these regional and sector specific factors. The economic principle of trade-offs explains why we must evaluate policies not just on their potential benefits but also on their costs, timing, and feasibility. Curtis & Irvine (2017) contend that the “best” economic policies depend on context, trade-offs, and long-term vs. short-term returns.

Recommended Path Forward

Addressing the skilled trades shortage will require a coordinated national strategy that balances short-term and long-term needs. Policymakers should:

· Increase funding for trade education and public outreach.

· Modernize immigration and credential recognition policies.

· Remove unnecessary apprenticeship restrictions.

· Promote diversity and inclusion in the trades.

· Invest in training that incorporates evolving technologies.

Conclusion

Canada’s skilled trades shortage is more than a labour gap. It’s a national economic vulnerability. From construction sites and commercial kitchens to vehicle repair shops and hospital maintenance crews, the effects of a shrinking skilled workforce are rippling through every sector. We’re already feeling it in longer wait times, inflated prices, stalled projects, and missed opportunities. And with hundreds of thousands of tradespeople expected to retire by 2028, the pressure is only growing.

To address this crisis, we must shift our collective mindset. For too long, skilled trades have been undervalued compared to academic and “white collar” professions. But imagine a future where becoming a journeyperson is celebrated with the same pride as earning an MBA. A future where high school students are encouraged equally to pursue welding or electrical work as they are to enter business or law. Where apprenticeships are not “plan B”, but a first-choice pathway to a meaningful, well paying, and essential career.

Achieving this vision will take more than a single policy change. It requires a coordinated national strategy that engages stakeholders across the board. Governments must continue to invest in training infrastructure and streamline immigration pathways. Educational institutions must modernize programs and reduce entry barriers. Industry must step up to offer mentorships, foster inclusive workplaces, and support innovation in training.

There is no “one size fits all” fix but there are many paths forward. By recognizing the skilled trades as a cornerstone of a resilient and inclusive economy, Canada can build not only homes, pipelines, and schools, but also a future where opportunity is truly shared, and every essential worker is respected and supported.

Further Reading

CBC: Skilled Trades Shortage is Hitting All Canadians: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/costofliving/skilled-trades-shortage-cost-of-living-1.7169441

CFIB Labour Shortage Report: https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/research-economic-analysis/financial-impact-labour-shortages-in-canada

References

Canadian Federation of Independent Business. (2023). Unlocking potential: Breaking down barriers to work across all ages. https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/research-economic-analysis/unlocking-potential-breaking-down-barriers-to-work

CLAC. (2022). Improving Apprenticeship Completion Rates. Retrieved from https://www.clac.ca/Your-voice/Article/improving-apprenticeship-completion-rates

Curtis, D., & Irvine, I. (2017). Principles of Macroeconomics: An Open Text (Rev. B). Lyryx Learning. https://lyryx.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/CI-Principles-of-Macroeconomics-2017-RevisionB.pdf

Government of Canada. (2022). Government of Canada invests to help Canadians enter skilled trades. https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/news/2022/07/government-of-canada-invests-to-help-canadians-enter-skilled-trades.html

Government of Canada. (2024). CIMM — Labour Shortages — November 25, 2024. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/transparency/committees/cimm-nov-25-2024/labour-shortages.html

Randstad. (2025). Strategies for overcoming skilled trades labor shortages in 2025. https://www.randstadusa.com/business/business-insights/employee-engagement/strategies-overcoming-skilled-trades-labor-shortages/

Why There’s No One-Size-Fits-All Fix to Canada’s Skilled Trades Crisis was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Live performances are one of Canada’s oldest cultural traditions from Indigenous storytelling and powwows to symphony orchestras, touring theatre, and grassroots music festivals. Today, their survival is far from guaranteed. Despite a growing desire for in-person connection in the post-pandemic world, the performing arts and live events sector in Canada is caught in an economic vice: rising production and venue costs, reduced government funding, and cautious consumer spending due to inflation and broader financial uncertainty (CAPACOA, 2024; Statistics Canada, 2024). While digital and virtual content flourished during lockdowns, many Canadian venues specifically independent theatres and community-based organizations are still struggling to recover (Roots Music Canada, 2024).

just a few years ago, live events and performing arts in Canada were thriving. From bustling theatre districts in Toronto and Montreal to packed summer music festivals in BC and Alberta, the cultural landscape was vibrant, diverse, and economically significant. According to the Canadian Arts Presenting Association, the arts and culture sector contributed over $58 billion to Canada’s GDP before the pandemic (Billboard Canada, 2024). But as COVID-19 hit, the sector came to a screeching halt. Venues closed, performances were cancelled, and thousands of artists and technicians found themselves out of work. Now, as Canada grapples with inflation, labour shortages, and shifting consumer priorities, the question remains: What does recovery look like for live events and the performing arts? How can an industry so dependent on in-person connection rebuild in a post-downturn economy?

Prior to the economic downturn and the disruptions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s live events and performing arts sector was not only thriving, but it was also expanding rapidly. Between 2013–14 and 2017–18, federal funding programs supported an average of 38,210 performances annually, drawing in approximately 22.4 million attendees each year (Canadian Live Music Association, 2022). This wasn’t just culturally significant it was also economically impactful. For every dollar invested through public support programs, an average of $8.50 was directly spent in the Canadian economy, reflecting the industry’s strong multiplier effect (Canadian Live Music Association, 2022).

Pre Downturn Landscape

By the time 2019 arrived, the sector contributed an estimated $3 billion to Canada’s GDP and supported around 72,000 jobs, ranging from performers and technicians to marketers and venue staff (Billboard Canada, 2024). According to Statistics Canada, the live events industry was showing strong upward momentum even after pandemic disruptions. Revenues had climbed by 12.8% from 2022, reaching a record $12.7 billion in 2023. This rebound brought industry revenues to 120.2% of 2019 levels, driven by pent-up consumer demand for live, in-person experiences after years of restrictions (Statistics Canada, 2024).

Live events also played a key role in attracting domestic and international tourists, further boosting the sector’s economic footprint. Major concerts, theatre festivals, and touring shows routinely drew visitors from the United States and other countries, many with combined event attendances with extended travel and hospitality spending. According to Destination Canada, cultural tourists tend to stay longer and spend more, especially when attending large-scale performances in cities like Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver (Destination Canada, 2023). This intersection of culture and tourism helped fuel local economies and reinforced the sector’s importance as both a creative and economic driver.

This period represents a benchmark of growth, resilience, and international appeal that sets the stage for understanding the challenges the sector faces today and what might come next.

Despite the sector’s impressive contributions to GDP, job creation, and international tourism, the COVID-19 pandemic marked a sudden and severe turning point. Lockdowns, border closures, and social distancing mandates brought live performances to a halt almost overnight. What was once a vibrant and steadily growing industry quickly became one of the hardest-hit sectors of the economy. The loss wasn’t just financial it was also cultural, communal, and deeply personal for many Canadians whose lives revolve around the arts, whether as performers, producers, venue operators, or audience members.

With advisories against non-essential travel, border restrictions, and strict lockdowns in several provinces, the arts and live events sector faced unprecedented challenges. Large-scale events like concerts, theatre productions, and festivals were cancelled, with many organizations forced to lay off staff or shut down entirely. Although some found creative ways to continue operations through virtual performances or online classes, these alternatives generated only a fraction of the revenue typically earned through in-person programming. By the end of 2020, most industries within arts, entertainment, and recreation were operating at less than half of their pre-pandemic revenue levels (Statistics Canada, 2021).

Government support programs like the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) played a critical role in helping the sector survive the worst phases of the pandemic. Over half of active arts-related businesses accessed CEWS funding, helping to retain workers and offset fixed costs (Canadian Heritage, 2022). However, financial losses continued to mount, and the emotional toll was evident in the uncertainty felt across the industry.

The world began to pull back from attending live events. Surveys conducted in Canada during the pandemic revealed that even die-hard fans of live music were hesitant to return. Nearly half of “live music lovers” reported that it would take six months or more or even that they may never feel comfortable attending a large concert again. For events in the U.S., that number rose to 68%. This widespread hesitation further delayed the sector’s recovery and signalled a deeper cultural shift in audience behaviour.

Even as pandemic restrictions eased and venues reopened, the path forward has remained far from smooth. While 2023 saw a significant rebound industry revenues surpassed 2019 levels, hitting a record $12.7 billion new economic headwinds began to complicate the recovery. Inflation, high interest rates, and an increasingly strained cost of living have made it harder for Canadians to justify discretionary spending on entertainment. Essentials like rent, groceries, and transportation now compete directly with spending on tickets for concerts, theatre performances, or festivals.

At the same time, the cost of producing live events has skyrocketed. Insurance premiums, staffing wages, equipment rentals, and artist fees have all increased. Smaller venues and independent producers are especially vulnerable, often forced to choose between raising ticket prices or cutting back on programming both of which risk alienating already cautious audiences. Labour shortages, particularly in technical and backstage roles, have further strained operations, as many workers left the industry during the pandemic and have not returned (Toronto Arts Foundation, 2023).

Public funding, another important cornerstone of the arts sector’s financial stability, has not increased in step with rising costs. Some sponsors have also pulled back amid broader market uncertainty (CAPACOA, 2024). As a result, even as demand for live experiences rebounds, the economic sustainability of producing them remains precarious.

All together, these challenges have created a new phase of economic vulnerability. The performing arts and live events sector in Canada now face several challenges: recovering from the pandemic while adapting to a post-pandemic economy that is itself under strain. This reality underscores the need for flexible, innovative approaches that address not just temporary relief but long-term resilience for one of Canada’s most culturally significant industries.

Rebuilding the Stage, Pathways to Recovery and Growth

Despite the immense challenges faced by Canada’s live events and performing arts sector, the current moment also presents a unique opportunity to rethink and rebuild. Rather than relying solely on reactive support programs, stakeholders are beginning to imagine forward-thinking economic strategies to help the industry thrive in a post-downturn environment (Canadian Live Music Association, 2020).

With how vast the arts and entertainment industry is, strategies proposed to help recover from the massive hit COVID has created are not one-size-fits-all, reflecting a range of possible pathways forward, each addressing different niches and needs of the sector (Abacus Data, 2023).

1. Cultural Resilience Fund for Crisis Preparedness

The pandemic revealed the vulnerability of the arts sector during sudden economic shocks. A proposed solution is the creation of a permanent cultural resilience fund, which would provide rapid-response financial support to artists and venues during emergencies. This would reduce future dependency on slow-moving temporary programs and provide a financial safety net tailored to the sector’s unique dynamics (Canadian Live Music Association, 2020; CAPACOA, 2024).

2. Universal Basic Income for Artists

The idea of a guaranteed basic income has gained significant traction recently as it would allow the freedom to explore artistic expression without the burden of financial insecurity could spark a new wave of creative talent: painters, musicians, actors, and performers who might otherwise be discouraged by economic barriers. In today’s culture, where phrases like “get a real job” or “art isn’t a viable career” are still commonly heard, we risk losing so many voices and visions that can and have the potential to add so much more to our culture and (Canadian Live Music Association, 2020).

As one popular saying goes, “If everyone were a doctor, the world would have no painters, musicians, or poets.” While the origin of this quote is unclear, its message resonates strongly today. A universal basic income would provide a stable financial foundation, particularly crucial for freelance and gig workers in the arts who often lack traditional job security. Beyond individual benefits, such a program could enhance both economic resilience and cultural innovation by allowing creators to focus on making meaningful work without being held hostage by financial instability (Canadian Live Music Association, 2020).

However, not everyone in the sector agrees on the existence of UBI. Critics argue that providing guaranteed income, especially without performance-based criteria, could reduce artists’ innovation and productivity by removing incentives to pursue new opportunities or compete for grants and commissions. Others caution that UBI might unintentionally discourage public and private sector investment in the arts by shifting the perceived funding burden to government programs. There’s also concern about fairness and whether artists receiving UBI should be subject to the same eligibility standards as others facing economic insecurity. These concerns highlight the importance of designing artist income support systems that ensure both sustainability and accountability.

3. Digital Infrastructure Investment

While digital performances surged during lockdowns, many artists lacked access to quality tools and platforms. A long-term solution would be increased public investment in digital infrastructure such as virtual performance platforms, more advanced and well-thought-out livestream technology, and digital marketing education. This would ensure wider audience access and open new revenue streams, even in crisis times (Canadian Heritage, 2024a; Canadian Live Music Association, 2020).

4. Revitalizing Cultural Tourism

Canada’s live events sector is a powerful draw for domestic and international tourists, particularly Americans crossing the border for concerts and festivals. To capitalize on this, cities and provinces could develop cultural tourism strategies that promote local performances as key travel experiences. Bundling live events with other tourism services could drive regional economic growth while reinvesting in the cultural economy (Destination Canada, 2023).

5. Inclusive and Equitable Funding Structures

To ensure long-term equity in the arts, government and private funders must prioritize inclusive grant models that address the historic underfunding of BIPOC, Indigenous, disabled, and LGBTQ2S+ artists. This would foster a more diverse cultural landscape, increasing the sector’s richness, relevance, and social impact (Canadian Heritage, 2024b; CAPACOA, 2024).

6. Cross-Sector Collaboration

Encouraging partnerships between the arts and industries such as education, healthcare, and technology opens new applications for creative work. This cross-sector innovation could take many forms from music therapy programs in hospitals to art-infused STEM education in schools broadening both the economic and social role of live arts in Canada (Toronto Arts Foundation, 2024).

7. Investment in Arts Education

To build a truly sustainable and resilient cultural future, investment must begin at the foundation of early education. Expanding access to arts education from elementary through high school is not just about teaching students to draw, sing, or act; it’s about fostering creativity, critical thinking, collaboration, and empathy. All skills are increasingly essential in a rapidly changing world and economy. (Toronto Arts Foundation, 2024).

When young people are exposed to the arts early, they are more likely to become lifelong supporters, participants, and even creators within the sector. Studies consistently show that students engaged in arts education perform better academically, are more civically engaged, and develop stronger social-emotional skills. Arts-rich school environments are linked to higher attendance rates and lower dropout rates, particularly in underserved communities (Toronto Arts Foundation, 2024).

I’ve experienced this firsthand as I graduated from Frances Kelsey Secondary School on Vancouver Island, BC, a school renowned for its robust arts programs. The school offers a wide array of courses in visual arts, theatre, and music, including Acting, Directing and Script Development, Stagecraft, Theatre Management, Jazz Band, Choir, Concert Band, Drawing, Painting, Sculpting, and Carving. These programs are integral to the school’s curriculum, providing students with opportunities to explore and develop their artistic talents in a supportive environment.

By increasing funding for school arts programs, artist residencies, youth orchestras, theatre groups, and community outreach, we can ensure that the cultural sector remains inclusive and vibrant. These early investments will help shape not only the next generation of artists but also engaged audiences, patrons, and cultural advocates, strengthening both the economy and the soul of our communities for years to come (Toronto Arts Foundation, 2024).

What’s Next?

The future of live events and performing arts in Canada is at a crossroads shaped by the recent economic downturn. While the sector has shown remarkable resilience and recovery, the challenges remain complex and multifaceted. Economic strategies like government support programs, innovative hybrid event models, and targeted investments in workforce development have all played a role in stabilizing the industry. Yet, no single solution can address the diverse needs and uncertainties that live events face across different communities and contexts (Canadian Live Music Association, 2020; CAPACOA, 2024).

Moving forward, a balanced approach that includes financial aid, technological innovation, and foundational investment in arts education will be essential. Supporting artists through measures like guaranteed basic income and expanding early access to arts education will cultivate a sustainable and dynamic cultural ecosystem. This encourages creativity and bolsters economic resilience by nurturing a skilled workforce and engaged audiences (Canadian Live Music Association, 2020; Toronto Arts Foundation, 2024).

The live events and performing arts sector thrives on connection between artists and audiences, communities and cultures, and tradition and innovation. Navigating the post-downturn landscape requires recognizing that there is no one-size-fits-all answer. Instead, a flexible, inclusive, and multi-dimensional strategy will be the key to revitalizing this vital part of Canada’s economy and cultural identity (Canadian Live Music Association, 2020).

References

Canadian Live Music Association. (2022). Submission to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/441/FINA/Brief/BR11978375/br-external/CanadianLiveMusicAssociation-e.pdf

Statistics Canada. (2025a, February 7). Cultural and sport GDP and jobs, third quarter 2024. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250207/dq250207d-eng.htm

Billboard Canada. (2024). Live performance in Canada: A $3.8B industry and growing. https://ca.billboard.com/fyi/live-performance-canada-38b-industry-and-growing

Destination Canada. (2023). Tourism snapshot: Annual report 2022. https://www.destinationcanada.com/en/research

Statistics Canada. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on the cultural sector. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/article/00033-eng.htm

Abacus Data. (2022). Will live music fans come back?. https://abacusdata.ca/live-music-after-pandemic

CAPACOA. (2024, April). Live performance gets a substantial boost in the federal budget. https://capacoa.ca/en/2024/04/live-performance-gets-a-substantial-boost-in-the-federal-budget

Roots Music Canada. (2024, May 25). Canadian folk fests still working toward financial stability post-pandemic. https://www.rootsmusic.ca/2024/05/25/canadian-folk-fests-still-working-toward-financial-stability-post-pandemic

Toronto Arts Foundation. (2024). We’re developing a newcomer workforce development initiative. https://torontoartsfoundation.org/media/we%E2%80%99re-developing-a-newcomer-workforce-development

Curtain Call or Comeback? The Economic Future of Canada’s Live Events was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Exploring the Talent Crunch Impacting Canada’s Major Projects

Canada’s mining sector is facing a critical economic imbalance: the number of major capital projects is rising, while the availability of skilled tradespeople is steadily declining. This growing labour gap is more than a workforce issue, it’s a structural disruption that threatens productivity, capital deployment, and the long-term viability of energy and resource development. Lets explore the roots of the skilled labour shortage, how it affects economic outcomes, and how targeted solutions could help reframe trades as essential and aspirational careers.

What happens when Canada has more mines than miners? Or when a multimillion-dollar capital project is ready to go, but no skilled tradespeople are available to build it? That’s not just a hypothetical; it’s the current reality facing the mining and construction industries.

The Disparity: More Projects, Fewer Workers

Canada’s mining sector is booming. From copper to coal, industrial capital projects across British Columbia, Alberta, and beyond are ramping up. But there’s a problem: there aren’t enough qualified tradespeople to build them.

The Canadian Apprenticeship Forum reported a 2.8% decrease in the Red Seal trades workforce between 2016 and 2021, a loss of over 55,000 certified workers (CAF, 2023). Meanwhile, BuildForce Canada forecasts that over 22,000 workers in Alberta alone will retire by 2027 (BuildForce Canada, 2024). British Columbia’s trades program completions, while steady, aren’t keeping pace with demand in sectors like mining and energy (BC Stats, 2024).

Using Natural Resources Canada’s Major Projects Inventory and trades graduation data, the imbalance becomes clear. Even using a conservative benchmark of 150 skilled workers per project, the estimated labour required for major projects far exceeds current annual program completions. That’s a problem not just for contractors but for the economy as a whole.

A closer look at the Major Projects Inventory reveals just how stretched the labour market is becoming. Across Canada, major developments include the Woodfibre LNG project in B.C., the Fort Hills expansion in Alberta, and the Ring of Fire infrastructure push in Ontario. These large-scale undertakings often require hundreds of trades workers in peak phases; electricians, pipefitters, heavy equipment operators, and welders, all of which are also needed for other simultaneous builds in transportation, utilities, and housing. In mining alone, Teck’s Quebrada Blanca Phase 2, the Galore Creek project, and Baffinland’s expansion signal long-term demand that far exceeds current labour supply, particularly when considering the project life cycle from study to execution.

Data based on Natural Resources Canada and Statistics Canada. Assumes 150 workers per project as a conservative benchmark (BuildForce Canada, 2023).

The Demographic Cliff: Who’s Leaving?

Compounding the issue is the wave of retirements looming over Canada’s workforce. According to BuildForce Canada (2023), one in five tradespeople is over the age of 55, with nearly 259,100 expected to exit the labour market by 2033. The construction and resource sectors are particularly exposed, given that many current site supervisors and field specialists began their careers in the late 1970s or 1980s. This outflow represents not just a loss of workers, but a depletion of institutional knowledge, something that can’t be quickly replaced by new graduates. Without proactive succession planning and mentorship programs, the skills gap will deepen, especially in regions already facing geographic and seasonal labour challenges.

Modeled using a 2.8% annual decline in total trades workforce, showing increasing strain from retirement-eligible and departing workers. Source: BuildForce Canada, 2023.

What Does This Mean for the Economy?

Labour shortages in Canada’s mining sector pose significant risks to productivity and capital allocation. Labour is one of the key inputs in the production process, and when it’s limited, it creates ripple effects across timelines, budgets, and investor confidence. From what I’ve seen supporting mining projects, a lack of skilled trades can delay contractor mobilization, inflate construction costs, or result in rework if labour is rushed or inexperienced. This aligns with economic theory that identifies labour as a core factor of production; without it, outputs suffer (Krugman & Wells, 2018).

Companies such as Teck Resources, Fluor, Ausenco, and Graham Construction have tried to counter this by offering higher compensation, improved camp environments, and enhanced travel benefits. From my experience, when a site improves conditions like offering better food, flights, or wage premiums, it becomes a lot easier to fill roles. This supports Mankiw’s theory that incentives can shift the labour supply curve outward, making a role more attractive even if the job itself hasn’t changed (2020, p. 362).

What’s Being Done?

The good news? There are real efforts underway.

• Governments have allocated millions toward apprenticeships like Alberta’s $135.5M trades investment.
• Employers are experimenting with on-site improvements and travel incentives.
• Industry groups like the Calgary Construction Association are actively promoting career pathways in construction and trades.
• Schools and training bodies are adjusting curriculum and offering fast-track certifications.

But… it’s not enough. Because the real issue isn’t just funding, it’s engagement. Many Gen Z and Gen Alpha workers don’t see trades as modern, stable, or aligned with their values. That’s the narrative that needs rewriting.

Rebranding the Trades for a New Generation

So, what could be done? Here’s a workforce strategy that goes beyond training and tackles perception head-on:

Workforce Development & Skills Training; A Forward-Looking Solution

• Meet them where they are: Use TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube to showcase what life in the trades actually looks like hands-on, well-paid, dynamic.
• Start early: Redirect some union dues or employer-funded training contributions to high school-level pre-apprenticeship programs.
• Speak their language: Emphasize stability, career freedom, and physical creativity, values that resonate deeply with younger generations.
• Create role models: Develop “influencer-style” ambassadors who share real day-in-the-life content from active job sites.

Videos like Inside the Facility: A Day in the Life of a Miner Maintenance Technician highlight how this approach can speak directly to younger audiences ; showcasing the skill sets, environments, and opportunities available in mining through an authentic lens.

With over 256,000 new tradespeople needed nationally by 2026 (CAF, 2023), solutions like this are not just innovative, they’re essential.

Final Thoughts

This is a bottleneck that affects more than construction, it impacts national productivity, economic resilience, and our ability to deliver on resource and energy commitments. And if policies like Bill C-69 continue to increase the complexity of project approvals, the labour bottleneck may be compounded by reduced investment confidence.

Solving it will require not just money, but messaging. Not just programs, but purpose. And not just short-term fixes, but strategies that shape how young Canadians see the trades in the long term. If we want a future where Canada builds boldly, we need to make building itself a bold choice. That starts with reimagining the trades as not just essential, but aspirational.

This isn’t just a labour issue; it’s a national economic vulnerability. Without bold action, Canada risks stalling critical infrastructure and clean energy progress. Governments, educators, and industry leaders must align not just on training, but on storytelling reframing trades careers as gateways to national resilience, not just jobsite fill-ins. The future of mining, and the country’s economic momentum, depends on it.

References

• OpenAI. (2025). AI-generated image of a standoff between corporate executives and skilled trades workers in a mining environment [AI-generated image]. ChatGPT. https://chat.openai.com/
• BuildForce Canada. (2023). 2023–2032 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward. https://www.buildforce.ca/en/products/2023-2032-national-summary
• BuildForce Canada. (2024, March). Employment demands increase in Alberta to 2034 with growth greatest in the non-residential sector. https://www.buildforce.ca/en/press-release/employment-demands-increase-in-alberta-to-2034-with-growth-greatest-in-the-non-residential-sector/
• Calgary Construction Association. (2025, February 28). Alberta’s construction recovery will be modest through 2027 with employment sustained by demographics. https://cgyca.com/industry-updates/albertas-construction-recovery-will-be-modest-through-2027-with-employment-sustained-by-demographics/
• British Columbia Statistics. (2024). 2024 Trades infographic report. https://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/app/uploads/sites/873/2025/01/2024_trades_infographic_report.pdf
• Canadian Apprenticeship Forum. (2023). Understanding the Red Seal labour force: 2021 Census of Population. https://caf-fca.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023-census-Report-EN-2.pdf
• Canadian Construction Association. (2022). Industry benchmarks for workforce planning. https://www.cca-acc.com/industry-issues/labour/
• Krugman, P., & Wells, R. (2018). Economics (3rd Canadian ed.). Worth Publishers.
• Mankiw, N. G. (2020). Principles of economics (9th ed.). Cengage Learning.
• Natural Resources Canada. (2024). Major projects inventory. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/science-data/data-analysis/major-projects-inventory

From Boom to Bottleneck: Labour Market Disruptions in Canada’s Mining Industry was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

During the Current Economic Downturn

Economics for Business — BMC 171 039 | Kris Hans

Amy Allred, Laura Blaker, Sunny Brar, Meghan Olesiuk
July 7, 2024

Introduction 3

Environmental Impact 3

Economic Inequality and Remote Work 6

Trends in Office Space Demand and Vacancy Rates 7

Potential Risks for Urban Downtown Areas and the Economic Impact 9

Repurposing commercial buildings for residential or mixed-use developments: 10

Calgary 10

Vancouver 11

Toronto 13

Local Business Dynamics 14

Foot Traffic 14

Consumer Spending Patterns 15

Adaptation Strategies 15

Labour Market Shifts 16

Impact on Urban Employment 16

Skills and Training 17

Social Effects 17

Mental Health Effects 18

Effects on Public Transportation & Infrastructure 20

Tourism Effects 21

Research Gap/Issue 23

Formulation of Innovative Ideas 24

Conclusion 25

Introduction

The long-term economic shutdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic have negatively impacted the urban economy. The consequences are complex and occur in various ways and on a wide range of scales. Early findings imply that the outbreak has significantly influenced city tax revenues, citizens’ income, tourism and hospitality, small- and medium-sized businesses, urban food supply chain, and migrant workers (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020).

Overall, the pandemic has declined the tax base of many cities, with many folks moving out of the city for remote work, reducing their ability to implement urban development plans. As cities are expected to experience significant financial deficits, they may need to prioritize investments and postpone or cancel some plans that they may deem less important (e.g., environmental and cultural) (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020).

Environmental Impact

In response to the pandemic, partial and total lockdowns were enforced in many parts of the world. These lockdowns provided an unprecedented opportunity to test how major transportation policy interventions and reforms in production patterns may contribute to enhancing urban air quality (Kerimray et al., 2020).

Results show that in most cases, travel restrictions have significantly reduced NO2 and CO that are pollutants directly associated with the transportation sector (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020). For instance, in March 2020, on average, hourly observations of NO2 concentration in Madrid and Barcelona showed, respectively, 62% and 50% reductions compared with the 2019 data (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020). However, policy measures to reduce traffic-related pollution are not enough to address air quality issues, and other sectors should also be considered. For instance, major actions regarding agricultural burning or finding optimal sites for industrial activities are needed, this is because while pollutants from the transportation sector may have decreased, the pandemic saw other factors such as an increase in domestic heating, as well as an increase in industrial activities in peripheral areas to compensate for the shutdown of production activities in major population centers (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020).

Another important issue related to air quality is that, according to the early evidence, reducing air pollution can contribute to controlling the spread of the pandemic and increase coping capacity of the infected individuals. In fact, several studies have found strong associations between COVID-19 transmission/mortality and high levels of air pollution (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020). Overall, results imply that, depending on the context-specific conditions and sources of pollution, major benefits can be achieved by greening the transportation system and eliminating pollution from heavy industries.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also had a profound and unexpected impact on the energy sector. It has triggered an unprecedented crisis affecting human and social capital, institutions, communities, industrial processes, energy usage, and individual financial investments. The uncertainties stemming from the pandemic’s duration and severity have prompted varied scenarios for the future of energy, requiring careful consideration in energy policy responses aimed at achieving 2030 and 2050 climate targets (Cai, 2024).

During the pandemic, significant changes in daily life and behavior have sharply influenced energy demand in buildings. Increased time spent at home, particularly among older individuals and those advised to shield for health reasons, has driven up domestic energy consumption, notably electricity (Cai, 2024). Additionally, the shift towards remote work and study has further impacted energy usage patterns, with more reliance on computers and tablets.

COVID-19 witnessed the lowest growth rate of global energy demand since the 1930s, with global energy demand falling by 6% and electricity demand by about 2% in 2020 (Cai, 2024). This shift in energy demand has seen a noticeable decrease in electricity usage in industrial and commercial sectors. Reports from various sources, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), highlight global reductions in energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2020, with notable decreases in electricity consumption observed in the United States and European countries during March and April compared to the previous year (Cai, 2024). Italy and Spain, in particular, experienced significant declines in electricity consumption during this period, demonstrating the pandemic’s profound influence on energy dynamics globally.

The energy consumption in commercial buildings, which is substantial in countries like Canada and the US, presents a significant opportunity for reducing CO2 emissions through enhanced energy efficiency. For example, commercial buildings in Canada account for approximately 36% of the country’s energy consumption (Cai, 2024). Commercial buildings, particularly shopping malls, exhibit varying levels of energy intensity compared to hotels and office buildings. To promote CO2 reduction in the building sector, attention should first be paid to commercial buildings, which have a higher CO2 reduction potential than residential buildings. To make commercial buildings more energy-efficient, it is important to understand the energy consumption levels and influential factors of commercial buildings, which vary according to the type of function. Shopping malls have the highest energy consumption intensity at more than twice that of hotels and approximately five times that of office buildings.

Economic Inequality and Remote Work

Organizations’ adoption of remote work has caused a decline in the urban wage premium since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020).

Front-line staff with modest paychecks rarely enjoy the benefits of working from home. Instead, they commute every work day to engage customers and coworkers, operate machinery, and look after facilities. In contrast, highly paid professionals and managers often work from home two or three days a week — saving time and money. Research confirms that remote work opportunities skew strongly towards the highly paid. These opportunities are also more common for those with more education and experience (Hansen et al., 2023).

Remote work opportunities are rare in jobs with annual pay around $30,000 (Hansen et al., 2023). These jobs cover roughly the bottom quartile of the earnings distribution. As we move up the earnings scale, the share of jobs offering hybrid or fully remote work gradually rises. As of 2023, the share is about 10% of jobs that pay $60,000, 20% of those that pay $100,000, and above 30% for jobs that pay around $200,000 (Hansen et al., 2023). Equally striking is the fact that work-from-home opportunities rise much more sharply with pay in 2023 than in 2019. The link between salary and ability to work from home is a new phenomenon (Hansen et al., 2023). Hybrid or remote work is rare in jobs that require no more than a high school education, and jobs with greater educational requirements offer more opportunities for remote work.

To mitigate inequities with remote work and the impact on lower-income workers, organizations should consider pay adjustments to compensate for the highly uneven benefits associated with remote work. Employers can consider other forms of flexibility for employees who must work onsite. Compared to a traditional five-day work week at eight hours per day, a four-day work week at 10 hours per day cuts weekly commute time. This would let front-line employees enjoy some of the savings in commute time reaped by white-collar employees as they shifted to more work from home.

Trends in Office Space Demand and Vacancy Rates

Before we discuss the transformation of commercial real estate in the Canadian market, we first need to understand what commercial real estate is and how buildings are classified. According to Statista, commercial property refers to any type of real estate that is used exclusively for business purposes (Commercial Property in Canada — Statistics & Facts, 2024). In commercial real estate there are three types of office building classifications, A, B, and C. This ranking is based on the age of building, location, and its facilities. Newer units that provide premium facilities are considered Class A. As you move to class B and C, the building’s age increases, facilities are more limited, and price per square foot decreases. The average vacancy rate across Canada usually sits around 11 percent, but since Covid, these averages have increased and changed the way many companies operate.

Since the pandemic, remote work or a combination of hybrid work environments has solidified as the new norm across many companies. While this is better for the environment, decreases commuting costs, and puts more time back into an employee’s day, there are several reasons we should be concerned. The overall health and growth of a city depends on thriving and growing businesses. The economic impact of declining commercial real estate can be seen in reduced consumer spending, lower tax revenues, reduced tourism, and a slowdown in economic growth due to overall attractiveness of business districts and new business injection.

According to data from commercial real estate and investment firm CBRE, Canada’s national downtown office vacancy rate hit a record high of 19.4 percent at the end of 2023. (Global News, 2024).

While COVID brought on some of these permanent work solutions, it may not be the number one reason the commercial market continues to suffer. Global New journalist, Jacquelyn LeBel, identified three additional main reasons for the climbing vacancy rate:

1.) Decrease in Tech labor needs. Many companies have experienced a dip in demand since the pandemic. This has led to focusing on streamlining operations and a reduction in workforce to adapt to new market trends and unsustainable growth.

2.) ‘Net absorption’ many Canadian cities have struggled to recover office vacancy since the energy crisis in 2014. However, numbers are increasing as cities look to repurpose older buildings, offer increased incentives for tenants, and as new supply comes on to the market.

3.) Readjusting company space needs. As the workplace dynamics continue to shift, companies are reassessing their office space needs. Many organizations are finding that the perks of the tech boom might not be the key drivers of employee efficiency or satisfaction. Instead, offering flexible work schedules, opportunities for growth, health and wellness benefits, and continuous professional development are more critical for a company to grow and sustain loyal employees.

Potential Risks for Urban Downtown Areas and the Economic Impact

In its report, “The impact of the pandemic on the downtown areas of Canada’s six major cities,” PwC Canada highlights the potential risks for these urban areas:

1. Toronto, Montréal, Vancouver and Calgary are particularly at risk because of their capacity to pivot to remote work. Commuting time could also deter workers from returning to the downtown core, especially in Toronto and Montréal.
2. Ottawa and Edmonton, where the public sector is prevalent, are less at risk because of the tendency of this sector to avoid major structural changes.
3. A decline in downtown workers could further impact retail and restaurants. Vancouver may be most affected because it has the highest ratio of stores and restaurants per 1,000 workers.
4. Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Montréal could also be more adversely affected by a downward valuation of commercial and office space. Given the low affordability of office space in Montréal and Vancouver, these cities may see more businesses reduce their space or move out of the downtown core entirely.
5. Tourism for all major cities will continue to be affected if businesses and restaurants close due to reduced customer base (The Impact of the Pandemic on the Downtown Areas of Canada’s Six Major Cities, n.d.).

Repurposing commercial buildings for residential or mixed-use developments:

Major cities across Canada are committed to creating innovative and layered solutions to revitalize their city centres:

Calgary

The City of Calgary is working with their downtown partners on office conversion programs that focus on:

1. Homes for Calgarians
2. Post-secondary academic spaces and student housing
3. Hotels
4. Incentivizing the demolition of end-of-life office buildings.

There are Fourteen approved ‘Office to Residential Conversion’ projects underway throughout downtown Calgary. One of the main goals in repurposing vacant office space is to encourage students and new graduates to locate downtown, contributing to more connected, diverse, and resilient neighbourhoods. (Downtown Calgary Development Incentive Program, n.d.).

The city has also set up several incentive programs that offer government funding and support. These incentive programs encompass the initiatives above; the development initiative, post-secondary initiative, office demolition initiative, and Plus 15 fund offset program.

Lastly, The Calgary Plan sets out the overall structure of the city and high-level land uses for each area, including the Greater Downtown. Since it is “the heart” of urban living, employment, arts and culture, tourism, and mobility, are all a focus in this plan. The Plan will create a mixture of uses, civic, cultural, employment commercial, institutional, and residential. This includes high density multi-residential, employment and mixed-use buildings complete with multi-functional parks and open spaces. (City Building Phase 2 | Downtown | City Building | Engage, n.d.).

Vancouver

The City of Vancouver plans to capitalize on trends to bring livelihood and vigor back to downtown spaces by using a network of high-density shopping-mall villages complete with apartments, hotels, art galleries, public plazas, offices, pop-up stores and community festivals, compete with stunning landscape views, all connected by their SkyTrain system. (Bula, 2024).

1. Omnichannel shopping: Shopping through multiple channels; malls, main streets, in person, and online. Through giant big-box discounters and small independent boutiques.
2. Mall villages will become the new centres of gravity in metro Vancouver.
3. Multiple businesses will operate out of a single storefront.
4. Capitalize and redefine industrial properties’ land storage and distribution space.

Vancouver aims to make office life desirable again by creating a sense of fun, interesting activity around it, as well as creating new spaces that serve some not-strictly-office needs like cool rentable party/meeting spaces or wellness centres.

In 2017, Council adopted the wide-reaching and innovative Housing Vancouver Strategy, along with 10-year housing approval targets (2017–2026). On June 25, 2024, Council adopted new 10-year housing targets (2024–2033) as well as a new 3-year housing action plan (2024–2026) to implement:

1. The Vancouver Plan- is the city’s unified land-use framework to create a more livable, affordable and sustainable city for everyone. The Vancouver Plan guides the long-term growth of the city. It clarifies where growth and change will occur over the next 30 years and beyond. (Vancouver Plan, n.d.).
2. The Housing Vancouver Strategy- Prioritizing housing for Vancouver residents, addressing the impact of speculation on land prices, and protecting and supporting our renters and most vulnerable residents. (Housing Vancouver Strategy: Three-Year Action Plan, n.d.).
3. A roadmap to meet the new targets

Toronto

Since 2010, the City of Toronto has been working towards urban growth in a way that does not displace, gentrify, or present affordability issues. Researchers are examining the practice of mixing uses in one building, especially combining residential or commercial space with large-scale public amenities such as schools or cultural facilities.

Called the creative mixed-use model, these developments bring together public, private, and non-profit uses in innovative ways, located in the same facility. Toronto has had some early learnings with their experience so far:

Creative mixed-use projects can be more complex, costly, and time-consuming to plan, deliver, and operate than a single-use development.

Challenges include:

1. Negotiations that involve the planning process and site-specific zoning permissions, and require multi-shareholder partnership arrangements
2. Individual know-how, skills, and resources that are leveraged for the greater shared benefit
3. Financial and social value of assets that benefit each partner, various user groups, and the city
4. Efficiencies that are created in some areas (e.g., operating and managing shared buildings)
5. Enhanced trust and familiarity among unexpected partners especially between Operational & maintenance questions e developed using collaboration as a cornerstone of healthy communities (School of Cities Strategic Plan 2021–2026, n.d.).

Toronto’s Official Plan is the guide for development of the city over the next 30 years. This plan identifies key geographies for accommodating housing and population growth, including the Downtown and Central Waterfront, and the Centres. Jobs are prioritized in employment areas, residential and non-residential development is also directed to designated mixed use areas, secondary plan areas and major redevelopment opportunities across the city (Development Pipeline 2023, 2024).

Local Business Dynamics

Small Businesses were severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and were forced into a way of working that to this day has still remained unchanged. While some of these effects are apparent there are others that require a deeper dive.

Foot Traffic

Small businesses in urban areas, such as cafes, restaurants, and retail stores which relied heavily on foot traffic of office workers experienced a severe reduction with office attendance still 30% lower than before the pandemic as of fall 2022 (McKinsey Global Institute, 2023). These decreases led to a significant decline in revenues and in some cases the closure of several businesses.

This caused many local businesses to attempt to pivot their business models to survive. Restaurants, for example began to shift their focus from in-person dining to delivery and takeout/catering services, while retail stores attempted to increase their e-commerce presence.

Consumer Spending Patterns

With fewer people commuting to urban centers due to remote work, there is a noticeable shift in the way that consumers spend their money. With consumers having the choice to reconsider where they live, outside of urban centers, consumers are more likely to spend in their local neighborhoods rather than in central business districts (Snware, 2023). This can not only affect real estate markets but also local economies in suburban and rural areas.

Similarly, the types of products and services in demand also changed, as there has been a significant increase in home office supplies, home delivery services while demand for professional attire and some urban entertainment options has declined (Snware, 2023).

Adaptation Strategies

Some strategies employed by local businesses to help mitigate the negative influences of remote work include:

1) Digital Marketing: Local businesses can leverage digital marketing campaigns to help reach customers that were previously reliant on foot traffic. These marketing campaigns can include social media, email campaigns and online advertising.

2) Partnerships and Collaborates: Forming partnerships with other local businesses can help reduce costs while providing mutual benefits such as joint marketing campaigns. In addition companies that provide delivery services like Uber Eats, Door Dash and Skip the Dishes helped small businesses provide delivery options that previously did not exist.

3) Government Support: Governments can also play a significant role in providing financial assistance, tax relief and other support measures to help businesses adapt during times of economic downturns and to prepare for the new normal. An example of this in Canada is the digital adoption grant aimed at growing and investing in technologies to help grow online sales and digitize your business (Government of Canada, 2024).

Labour Market Shifts

Several labour market shifts have occurred post-pandemic and these have led to the adoption of remote work varying across industries. The biggest shifters to remote work include sectors like technology, finance, and professional services as being mostly computer-based office work provides them with the flexibility to be remote (Lund et al., 2021). Industries with a lower capacity for remote work would include manufacturing, retail and healthcare.

With these shifts in the labor market companies are being forced to re-evaluate their remote work policies and adopt either fully remote or hybrid working environments, causing businesses to also rethink their workplace culture, employee engagement and productivity measures.

Impact on Urban Employment

Several jobs have also since been displaced, as workers who relied on in-person jobs may face unemployment or reduced opportunities, specifically when we look at service industry workers and those in lower-wage positions.

On a positive side, remote work has opened up several opportunities for those workers who previously faced geographical barriers, leading to a more diverse workforce with candidates capable of working from anywhere in the world.

Skills and Training

With the shift to remote work, the need for strong digital skills has increased in demand. Employees must be capable of communicating with digital tools online, and similarly, collaborate with colleagues without having them in the same vicinity. To help promote this, employers are forced to invest in tools and technologies that make remote work easier, but also to invest in continuous learning opportunities to upskill those employees to ensure that their workers have the required skill sets to thrive.

Social Effects

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted Canadians across multiple dimensions, reshaping their social, economic, and emotional landscapes.

1. Economic Impact — Many Canadians faced great uncertainty within the pandemic, including widespread job losses, which in turn created financial challenges due to reduced work hours, closures and restrictions.
2. Social Isolation — Many of the restrictions in place, such as lockdowns, distancing, and the cancellation of social events led many Canadians to struggle with mental health and connection.
3. Especially those who live alone, are older or already had compromised health — these demographics were hit the worst with isolation.
4. For some, it increased the rates of domestic violence in homes.
5. Covid also had an immense effect on the experience and celebrations of life milestones. Graduations, Birthdays, Marriages, Births and more were not able to be celebrated by the community. Although many found creative ways, such as drive-bys or video calls, the consequences of altering these community-involved key life moments are still yet to be seen.
6. Social Cohesion — social cohesion was tested throughout Covid as Canadians learned to navigate differing opinions on vaccinations, infections, restrictions and health measures. However, the good that came out of this, at least in part, was that many communities were able to show resilience amongst the adversity.
7. Social Inequalities — Covid affected racial groups, Indigenous people and low-income populations, at a disproportionate rate. These groups faced great challenges in receiving treatment and higher infection rates, as well as economic impacts.
8. Social Stigmatizing — in a time where opinions are driven by fear, the stigmatization of those who disagree can be damaging. In an effort to get people to change their way of thinking, they often were called out, bringing great discord and disunity.

Mental Health Effects

The COVID-19 pandemic has left an indelible mark on the mental health landscape of Canadians, unveiling a complex web of challenges that continue to resonate across communities.

1. Increased Levels of Stress & Anxiety — During Covid, studies report that 37.4% of Canadians experienced a decline in their mental health. The impacts of these mental health challenges hit women, youth and low-income families at disproportionate rates.
2. More than 7 out of 10 Canadians reported their mental health was negatively affected by Covid.
3. The Canadian Mental Health Association saw dramatic uptake in the need for help including.
4. A 300% increase in the number of youths accessing Early Psychosis Intervention Programs
5. 170% increase in wait lists for urgent and intensive mental health support.
6. Overall, the World Health Organisation found that during the first year of the pandemic, the levels of anxiety and depression rose across the world by an astonishing 25%.
7. Grief and Loss — many families who experienced a loss due to Covid were faced with new challenges and isolation in their grief process. Many times, distancing rules kept families apart during a time when they needed connection the most.
8. Financial Strain — the overall economic uncertainty including reduced work hours, job losses and lack of childcare contributed to and amplified mental health issues.
9. Substance Abuse & Addiction — unfortunately in the face of the covid challenges, some people turned to alcohol, drugs and other addictions to cope, creating greater need for mental health services.
10. More than 2 out of 5 Canadians reported some level of distress during Covid.
11. People were 1.5 times more likely to consume alcohol, and 2–2.5 times more likely to resort to cannabis use.
12. Disruption to Schedules — as restrictions came and went through covid, the impact of the continual change to routines, such as school closures and remote learning had a large effect on children and youth. At a time in life when relationships help youth understand and learn their own identity, this was taken away which resulted in mental health challenges.

Effects on Public Transportation & Infrastructure

The COVID-19 pandemic wrought profound changes across various facets of society, and public transportation systems were no exception.

1. Decline in Ridership — the sharp decline in ridership on public transit led to decreased revenues for transit agencies and municipalities.

a. The number of Canadians taking public transportation to work was cut in half (2 million down to 1 million).

b. There was also a large number of people that transitioned to working at home, by May 2021, there were 4.2 million people working from home, over three times the highest level ever recorded.

2. Changes in Commuting Patterns — The demand for public transport has changed drastically in the last 4 years. From the outset of Covid when people were asked to work from home, were laid off, or stayed home to care for family/children.

3. Planned Infrastructure Projects — due to this quick decline in ridership and the uncertainty of the future, many planned infrastructure projects were delayed or canceled entirely in order to be more flexible and understand better, in depth, the long term effects and changes that will be required.

4. Equity — Covid brought to light in greater measure the inequalities in public transport for low-income families, seniors and people with disabilities who have no other option than to rely on public transport.

Tourism Effects

The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally reshaped the landscape of global tourism, triggering unprecedented disruptions and challenges across the industry. The tourism sector bore the brunt of these impacts, facing reduced capacities, layoffs, and widespread closures that have reshaped its trajectory for years to come.

1. Restrictions & Closures — across the world, non-essential travel was quickly restricted as borders closed and communities went into lock downs. With this change, tourism across Canada decreased severely in the beginning of covid and although recovery is on the horizon, the last four years have hurt businesses, workers and the industry in general.

a. Unprecedented numbers of businesses experienced a decline of 40% or more during the first years of the pandemic.

b. In 2020 in Canada, air traffic was down 97%. Even with gains made over the past few years, this drastic decline has changed air travel and will continue to.

2. Impacts on Businesses — one of the greatest negative impacts on business happened to the Tourism sector. Many companies had reduced capacities, lay-offs and some ended up closing their doors indefinitely.

3. Shifts in travel behavior — Interestingly, as the larger tourism sector declined, the behavior of travelers started to shift to local travel, and outdoor activities.

a. Many destinations outside of major urban centres have been the new tourism hot spots, offering new tourism opportunities. However, many of these smaller locations did not have the infrastructure to support the growth.

b. The concept of “revenge travel” came about in 2021, where travelers are compelled to make up for lost trips during covid — they tend to go for longer trips and spend more overall.

Following the lockdown, tourism activities in Venice came to a halt, resulting in a dramatic decrease in vessel traffic and associated pollution and sediment concentration in the lagoon of Venice. In combination with other factors (e.g., a significant decrease in wastewater discharge due to the city population being halved, and reduced rainwater runoff from tributaries because of reduced precipitation during the pandemic), this has led to significant water transparency improvements in the lagoon and city canals, as shown by the comparison of satellite images (Sentinel-2 imagery) taken before and during the lockdown (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020).

The global pandemic has exposed the extreme vulnerability of cities and called for reconsidering the way urban tourism, food, and environment systems are developed and governed. The need for better self-sufficiency and a paradigm shift towards more diverse economic structures is particularly emphasized. The crisis is an opportunity to reflect on the existing mass tourism policies and redefine tourism development pathways. Calling for transformations in global tourism policies to make them consistent with sustainable development goals is recommended (Sharifi & Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020).

Research Gap/Issue

Covid-19 changed the world, shifting our culture from one of familiarity and security to unknown territory. Everyone had to think outside the box and adapt as things changed so quickly. Through the murkiness and challenges, we find ourselves with an incredible opportunity, we can make changes now that will impact generations to come. There are so many positive stories across the board of new, innovative ideas and a refreshed way of thinking.

Societies now have the chance to set things for a better course; how to repurpose empty office space, how to build close-knit communities, the emphasis on public health care and, of course, the environmental impacts have been staggering. We need to marry the best ideas and practices from our past with new innovative ideas for the future.

Formulation of Innovative Ideas

The new development model used by Vancouver to redevelop and revive downtown areas with a network of high density mixed use buildings is a great example. These provide vibrancy with apartments, shopping, hotels, galleries, plazas for festivals, pop-up space and office space. In a time when many business districts are suffering with lower consumer spending, reduced tax revenue and reduced tourism foot traffic, the Vancouver model brings to light a new way to develop.

As we know, many communities’ public transportation declined by drastic amounts during the pandemic. With such reduced ridership, communities were finding themselves in a deficit and yet included to keep public transport running for the lower-income workers that rely on it every day. The same goes with people moving out of the cities to smaller communities with the flexibility of remote work. For smaller communities, this was of economic benefit with a new tax base, demand for housing and recreational activities. However for the cities, losing populations are detrimental to the cities development plans, with a reduced tax base.

The model used in Vancouver can work almost anywhere, but it will take communities willingness to get involved and provide incentives and tax breaks. It will take investors willing to see the vision and get on board and it will take the overall buy in from the people.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the profound disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have left an indelible mark on urban economies across Canada. As highlighted by Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir (2020), the pandemic’s economic shutdowns have triggered a cascade of challenges affecting various facets of urban life, from tax revenues to small businesses and beyond. The shift towards remote work, accelerated by necessity, has reshaped urban dynamics, with significant implications for city planning and economic strategies.

Cities have grappled with reduced tax bases and altered demographic patterns as residents relocate for remote work opportunities, impacting municipal revenues and the ability to fund essential urban development initiatives. The strain on small- and medium-sized businesses, tourism, and hospitality sectors has been particularly acute, reflecting broader vulnerabilities in urban economies.

Looking forward, navigating these challenges requires a multifaceted approach. Urban policymakers must prioritize investments that support economic resilience, digital infrastructure, and equitable access to remote work opportunities. Strategies aimed at bolstering local entrepreneurship, enhancing digital connectivity, and fostering inclusive growth are imperative to mitigate the economic downturn’s lasting effects on urban communities.

Furthermore, the pandemic has underscored the need for adaptive urban planning that balances economic recovery with environmental sustainability and social equity. As cities reassess their development priorities amidst financial constraints, there is an opportunity to cultivate more resilient and inclusive urban economies that can withstand future shocks.

In summary, while the current economic downturn has posed unprecedented challenges for Canadian urban economies, it has also catalyzed innovation and adaptation. By leveraging lessons learned and embracing forward-thinking policies, cities can emerge stronger and more resilient, fostering sustainable growth and prosperity in a post-pandemic world.

References

Aback, Z., Tait, M., & McKeown, L. (2024, June 10). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inbound visitors to Canada. Statistique Canada. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-621-m/11-621-m2024002-eng.htm

Bula, F. (2024, March 8). Vancouver 2050: Where the city and province’s commercial and real estate markets are headed. BC Business. Retrieved July 4, 2024, from https://www.bcbusiness.ca/industries/real-estate/vancouver-2050-where-the-city-and-provinces-commercial-and-real-estate-markets-are-headed/

Cai, S. (2024). Impact of COVID-19 on the energy consumption of commercial buildings: A case study in Singapore. Energy and Built Environment, 5(364–373). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666123322000812

City Building Phase 2 | Downtown | City Building | Engage. (n.d.). Engage (calgary.ca). Retrieved July 4, 2024, from https://engage.calgary.ca/citybuilding/CBPphase2Downtown

Commercial property in Canada — statistics & facts. (2024, January 10). Statista. Retrieved July 4, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/topics/7009/commercial-property-in-canada/

Development Pipeline 2023. (2024, June 1). City of Toronto. Retrieved July 4, 2024, from https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2024/ph/bgrd/backgroundfile-246249.pdf

Downtown Calgary Development Incentive Program. (n.d.). The City of Calgary. Retrieved July 4, 2024, from https://www.calgary.ca/development/downtown-calgary-incentive-program.html

Global News. (2024, January 10). Why Canada’s downtown office vacancy rate hit a record high to end 2023. Why Canada’s downtown office vacancy rate hit a record high to end 2023. https://globalnews.ca/news/10216439/why-canada-downtown-office-vacancy-record-high-2023

Government of Canada. (2024, June 10). Canada Digital Adoption Program (CDAP) | Official site. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. Retrieved June 18, 2024, from https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/canada-digital-adoption-program/en

Hansen, S., Lambert, P., & Blom, N. (2023, March). Remote Work across Jobs, Companies, and Space. National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved June 6, 2024, from https://www.nber.org/papers/w31007

Housing Vancouver strategy: Three-year action plan. (n.d.). City of Vancouver. Retrieved July 4, 2024, from https://vancouver.ca/people-programs/housing-vancouver-action-plan.aspx

The impact of the pandemic on the downtown areas of Canada’s six major cities. (n.d.). PwC. Retrieved July 4, 2024, from https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/services/deals/economics/the-impact-of-the-pandemic-on-the-downtown-areas-of-canadas-six-major-cities.html

Kerimray, A., Baimatova, N., & Ibragimova, O. (2020). Assessing air quality changes in large cities during COVID-19 lockdowns: The impacts of traffic-free urban conditions in Almaty, Kazakhstan. National Library of Medecine. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139179

Lund, S., Madgavkar, A., Manyika, J., Smit, S., Ellingrud, K., & Robinson, O. (2021, February 18). The future of work after COVID-19. McKinsey. Retrieved June 18, 2024, from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19

McKinsey Global Institute. (2023, July 13). How hybrid work has changed society. McKinsey. Retrieved June 18, 2024, from https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/empty-spaces-and-hybrid-places-chapter-1

Miller, A. (2022, March 12). 2 years into the pandemic, Canada’s mental-health system is at a crisis point. CBC. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-mental-health-crisis-covid-19-pandemic-1.6382378

Pongou, A. R. (2022, November 17). Psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada. PubMed Central. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9671380/#:~:text=A%20study%20reported%20that%2037.4,the%20mental%20health%20of%20Canadians

Rajaonson, J., & Tanguay, G. A. (2021, May 9). The COVID-19 pandemic has created regional tourism hotspots as big cities suffer. The Conversation. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://theconversation.com/the-covid-19-pandemic-has-created-regional-tourism-hotspots-as-big-cities-suffer-159892

School of Cities Strategic Plan 2021–2026. (n.d.). School of Cities. Retrieved July 4, 2024, from https://schoolofcities.utoronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/UofT_SchoolofCities_StrategicPlan_FINAL.pdf

Settersten, R. A. (2020, September). Understanding the effects of Covid-19 through a life course lens. Science Direct. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040260820300393

Sharifi, A., & Khavarian-Garmsir, A. (2020, December 20). The COVID-19 pandemic: Impacts on cities and major lessons for urban planning, design, and management. Science of the Total Environment. Retrieved June 28, 2024, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720359209?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=89ae7110dea9ac21

Snware. (2023, September 4). The Rise of Remote Work and Its Influence on Consumer Spending. Snware Research Services. Retrieved June 18, 2024, from https://snwareresearch.com/the-rise-of-remote-work-and-its-influence-on-consumer-spending/

Tam, S., Sood, S., & Johnston, C. (2021, June 8). Data to Insights for a Better Canada Impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector, second quarter of 2021. Statistique Canada. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2021001/article/00023-eng.htm

COVID-19: Anxiety and depression: February to May 2021 data. (2022, October 19). Canada.ca. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/cycle-2-symptoms-anxiety-depression-covid-19-pandemic.html

The Daily — Has the COVID-19 pandemic changed commuting patterns for good? (2022, November 30). Statistique Canada. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221130/dq221130c-eng.htm

A message to our government leaders: The impact of COVID-19 on mental health is real. Let’s listen to the evidence. (2023, March 23). CMHA National. Canadian Mental Health Association. Retrieved June 17, 2024, from https://cmha.ca/news/a-message-to-our-government-leaders-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-mental-health-is-real-lets-listen-to-the-evidence/

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The Impact of Remote Work on Urban Economies was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Government Investment in Canada’s Post Secondary Education System

Canada is a very well-educated country; over half of all Canadians have some level of post-secondary education (PSE). PSE includes university, college, apprenticeships, and other certificates and diplomas, however, most of the data in this report focuses on college and university. In this report, we will examine the evolution of post-secondary school in Canada since the end of World War II: trends in enrollment, tuition, return on investment for students, international student policy changes, and revenue streams. Are Canadian post-secondary schools meeting the needs of the Canadian economy and the students? Is the debt taken on by students worth the cost of education? How does government investment in post-secondary schools impact enrollment trends? Moving into the next decade, how will Canada’s schools have adapted to economic trends?

Canada has 223 public and private universities and 213 public colleges and institutions (Council of Ministers of Education, Canada 2021). Post-secondary schools meet the demand of students by offering traditional programs but also leading the way in innovation and research. Offering students cutting edge programs that anticipate the need of an ever-changing business environment, PSE institutions will continue to adapt, and by analyzing the supply and demand of PSE, we can have a glimpse into possible future trends.

Post-Secondary Education in Canada Post WWII

PSE was not always available to the masses, in fact, until World War II, post-secondary school in Canada was exclusive to the elite class who needed to prepare for leadership roles in society. In the 1950’s post-secondary school became available to the greater public and during this time of growth, it became understood that education was directly related to personal income and economic growth. Universities experienced massive growth in the 1960’s and 1970’s due to several factors which included the baby boom and a changing labour market. In the 1990’s participation reached a new high with over 50% of the population receiving post-secondary education (Kirby, 2009). Since the early 1990’s women have accounted for 55–60% of university students in Canada (Walsh, 2018).

Government Contributions and other Revenue Streams

Canadian post-secondary schools have always received government contribution, although the amount dedicated from provincial and federal government has changed over the years. In recent decades, the percentage of school revenues coming from government has been decreasing while the amount coming from tuition has had to make up for the shortfall.

The government’s share of university funding has fallen by almost half while tuition costs have risen by 2.7 times (Walsh, 2018); it appears to be the case that the demand for PSE remains high so the market is capable of bearing the increasing tuition costs.

According to Statistics Canada 57.5% of working age Canadians are graduates of post-secondary school, leading the G7 with the most graduates. Given the high rate of graduation, it might seem that there is little reason to subsidize education, however, the government may be interested in promoting university degrees as Canada is 4th amongst the G7 for bachelor’s degree or higher (Statscan 2022).

Although government funding has historically been a core revenue stream for post-secondary institutions, tuition and self-generated revenue have been growing strongly since 2008, and 2016 was the first year that other revenue streams outpaced contributions from government. The tuition fee income at colleges and universities has more than doubled since the 2007–2008 school year and tuition income has ballooned from $8.7 billion to $17.3 billion in 2022. Although there was an increase of 29% from domestic students, the most dramatic increase is from international students with a 441% increase since the 2007–2008 school year (Usher, 2022). When adjusting for inflation, 100% of the tuition increase from 2009–2010 to 2021–2022 has been from international students.

Canada has a very well-funded post-secondary education system, second in the world only to the US. In 2016, expenditures on institutions from private and public sources amounted to 2.3% of the Gross Domestic Product which is just shy of the US at 2.5% and is over 50% higher than the OECD average (Usher, 2022). Prior to the economic downturn in 2008 government contribution to universities was rising at the same rate as tuition, about 6% per year. However, the government decreased contributions in 2009; while tuition for both college and universities continued to rise 6% per year, government contributions stagnated. Colleges and universities both receive about the same amount of funding from tuition (30%) while contributions from government make up 55% of income for colleges compared to 46% for universities. Sources of self-generated income include investments, donations, and other non-government or tuition revenue streams. Universities create a whopping 25% while colleges come in at 12–14% of self-generated revenue (Usher, 2022).

Although tuition has increased, so has the cost of educating a student. Canadian Universities spent $31,500 per full time student in the 2015–2016 academic year compared to $26,000 in the 1980s, adjusted for inflation (Walsh, 2016).

government make up 55% of income for colleges compared to 46% for universities. Sources of self-generated income include investments, donations, and other non-government or tuition revenue streams. Universities create a whopping 25% while colleges come in at 12–14% of self-generated revenue (Usher, 2022).

Although tuition has increased, so has the cost of educating a student. Canadian Universities spent $31,500 per full time student in the 2015–2016 academic year compared to $26,000 in the 1980s, adjusted for inflation (Walsh, 2016).

Schools Adapting to Industry Needs

The need of industry is constantly changing; we have seen this very recently with the adoption of artificial intelligence. Post-secondary institutions in Canada need to adapt to meet these needs and while some schools will lead the way with innovation, research, and program changes, other institutions will lag and adapt in a more reactive manner.

An interesting example of adapting to external forces can be seen in the lower birth rates of the early 80’s and 90’s. Fewer teachers were needed in schools, therefore universities limited the number of enrollments into teacher training programs. In the late 1990’s when commodity prices started to increase, the economy expanded and created a large demand for apprentices; enrollment in apprenticeships peaked in 2013 with 470,000 registered apprentices, up from 175,000 in 1997 (Usher, 2022).

The 4IR or the fourth industrial revolution is quickly changing how the world operates. Post-secondary schools will need to keep pace or stay ahead of these changes. This includes technological advancements such as advanced engineering, human-machine interaction, and artificial intelligence (N.A. 2022). This will also be an opportunity for schools to offer training programs for those in the workforce that will need constant upskilling.

The Cost of Education for Students

Students attending post-secondary school do so with the intention of a higher income and career potential post-graduation. Is that a realistic expectation and is the cost worth it? Three years after graduation, 23% of graduates with a bachelor’s degree still owed over $25,000 in government student loans (Walsh, 2018).

College is a more affordable option for students looking for post-secondary education. With college costing approximately half of university tuition, enrollment in Canadian colleges rose 33% from 2000 to 2018. Many colleges have partnered with universities to offer transferable programs, reducing the overall cost of a university degree for students.

According to the 2021 Census, people 25–64 years of age with higher education earned a higher wage. The higher the education, the higher the individuals earning potential. Even those with a high school diploma as their highest level of education made $8,000 more per year than those

with no high school diploma. There is also a large gap between those with a bachelor’s degree ($72,200) and a college diploma ($53,950) (Statistics Canada, 2021).

What is interesting is that those with a bachelor’s degree, master’s degree or doctorate saw their wage increase from 2019 to 2020 while all others saw a decrease. This could be a result of layoffs during the pandemic but could also indicate that jobs that require higher education are more stable.

Average income for Canadians 25–64 years of age based on highest level of education:

It appears that even with the increased debt, over a career, higher education is worth the cost and almost necessary. The middle class in Canada is now defined as those with a personal income between $53,359 and $106,717 (Pitman, 2023). By that definition and the data given, someone would need at least a college education or apprenticeship to make a middle-class wage. Even those with a doctorate would still be included in the middle-class earning bracket.

Changes in International Student Permits

In January of 2024, the government of Canada announced a reduction in the study permits that will be available to internation students: the cap for 2024 will be 360,000 permits, a 35% decrease from 2023 (Canada, 2024). Reducing the number of international students is meant to prevent post-secondary students from arriving without the proper supports in place however, historically, post-secondary institutions have utilized international student intake to drive revenues. As an example, Conestoga College dramatically increased international student intake and as a result they have a surplus of $106 million. In 2014–2015 their surplus was $2.5 million (Mallees, 2024). Mallees writes that the growth has faced criticism from students and faculty alike. Faculty have been displaced from their offices to make room for more classrooms, and adequate housing and transportation was not established prior to the sharp increase.

The Future of Post Secondary Schools in Canada

To maintain our strong standing as a world leader in education, Canadian post-secondary institutions will need to keep adapting; these changes must include continuously evaluating the needs of industry and maintaining a tuition that has a strong ROI for students. They will have to adapt to a smaller revenue stream from international students if the trends continue. Since 2009, Canadians are having fewer children: 2022 saw the lowest reproductive rate in over a century. (Statistics Canada, 2024) Changing international student policies, record inflation and economic downturn is creating a very competitive PSE market. Schools have been able to adapt in the past; many possible solutions and opportunities lay ahead for Canadian post secondary schools.

References:

Council of Ministers of Education, Canada 2021 https://www.cmec.ca/299/education-in-canada-an-overview/index.html#:~:text=Canada%20has%20223%20public%20and,213%20public%20colleges%20and%20institutes.

Kirby, Dale (2009, April) Journal of Applied Research on Learning, Widening Access: Making the Transition from Mass to Universal Post-Secondary Education in Canada http://en.copian.ca/library/research/jarl/widening/widening.pdf

Walsh, Gerard (2018, June) The Cost of Credentials, The Shifting burden of post-secondary tuition in Canada https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/wp-content/uploads/Tuition_-June2018.pdf

Statscan( 2022, November 30) Canada leads the G7 for the most educated workforce thanks to immigrants, young adults and strong college sector, but is experiencing significant losses in apprenticeship certificate holders in key trades https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221130/dq221130a-eng.htm

Usher, A. (2022). The State of Postsecondary Education in Canada, 2022. Toronto: Higher Education Strategy Associates https://higheredstrategy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/SPEC_2022-1.pdf

Statistics Canada (2021) https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810041101&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.1&pickMembers%5B1%5D=2.1&pickMembers%5B2%5D=3.1&pickMembers%5B3%5D=4.5&pickMembers%5B4%5D=5.2

Pitman, Melanie (2023, December 5) What is Middle Class Income in Canada, MoneyGenius

https://moneygenius.ca/blog/middle-class-income-canada

Government of Canada (2024, January 22) News Release https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/01/canada-to-stabilize-growth-and-decrease-number-of-new-international-student-permits-issued-to-approximately-360000-for-2024.html

Mallees, Nojoud A. (2024, April 30) Conestoga College under fire by students, union leaders for aggressive international student recruitment, CBC News https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/conestoga-college-mecca-international-students-1.7189040

N.A. (2022, August 17) What are Industry 4.0, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and 4IR? McKinsey & Co. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/mckinsey-explainers/what-are-industry-4-0-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-and-4ir#/

Statistics Canada (2024) Canada’s fertility rate reaches and all time low in 2022. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240131/dq240131c-eng.htm

Government Investment in Canada’s Post Secondary Education System was originally published in Economics for Business on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.