Is Brexit starting to affect the UK art market?
ArtTactic’s 2018 Outlook report from earlier this year indicated that experts felt less positive about the state of the UK art market in 2018 than the global and European markets. The report mentioned as a possible explanation the economic uncertainties surrounding Brexit, which remain high given a continuing lack of definition of the terms and impact of the departure.
Such a forward-looking report —and one based on the opinions of individual experts — is by its very nature speculative. Yet recent HMRC customs figures on last year’s export and import values of antiques and fine art within the UK might offer the first proof of this Brexit effect.
While exports were fairly static — a 2.2% global decrease and 6.8% increase to the European Union, as compared with 2016 — imports fell 21% globally and a massive 60% from the EU (note: these figures reflect the total value of goods crossing UK borders, and so include transfer of works for display rather than just for sale; still, a useful indicator of regional influence and market confidence).
This downturn might reflect a growing reluctance on the part of dealers and curators to send art to the UK. Given uncertainties about potential changes to trade laws and regulations in the next couple of years, transferring works to the UK might appear riskier — whether the aim is to sell, loan or exhibit.
Another explanation points to a general weakening of the sterling in 2017 (especially in the first half of the year), which likely discouraged some owners from putting works up for sale in the UK. It should be noted though that this could still be the Brexit effect by proxy, given the apparent fluctuations of the sterling in response to the ongoing negotiations.
The current uncertainty is of course concerning, but we can take some heart from the fact the UK’s exports to other global trading partners (most notably, the US, Switzerland, Hong Kong and China) are much healthier.
For example, exports to China were 350% higher than in 2016 (£115.9m vs £25.5m), and Frieze Week sales — a historic indicator of the London market — were positive (Christie’s reported an increase of almost 50% in sales of Post-war and Contemporary art, compared with 2016).
It’s very difficult to definitively assign causes to effects when it comes to this sort of large-scale analysis. Yet even if there is a non-Brexit explanation for the apparent imports slump, it seems impossible to think that Brexit won’t have any effect on the UK art market; such an all-encompassing shift will surely touch all facets of the economy. As more data becomes available in 2018 and beyond, I’m sure the extent and details of its impact will be revealed.
