Where the SNP went wrong
The SNP lost 21 seats in the recent General Election — Robbie Nicoll asks whether this is a cause for celebration or for reflection?
The 2017 General Election results in Scotland proved just as volatile as the 2015 landslide. The SNP emerged as the largest party with 35 seats, but lost 21 MPs. The Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats all benefited, regaining constituencies and votes across the country. This article analyses whether Scotland’s result was poor for the SNP and argues that the lack of a positive platform and campaign message is the foundation for their recent electoral difficulties.
It is important to remember the SNP started from a high of 56 seats out of 59 available after their landslide in 2015, which wiped out 40 Scottish Labour MPs and reduced the other three mainstream parties to one MP each. It was unrealistic to expect the SNP to hold every seat. It is also important to remember the SNP have won the most Scottish seats and continue as the party to beat.
With caveats, I would argue the number of seats lost, that most seats now balance on wafer-thin majorities and the near wipeout of their frontbench means the SNP had a poor night. The loss of their deputy leader Angus Robertson, former party leader Alex Salmond and seasoned campaigners such as Eilidh Whiteford and Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh indicates the swing was against the party rather than individuals. Additionally, although there were obvious cases of tactical voting in certain constituencies, the majority saw a decrease in the SNP vote and increases for the three opposition parties. Therefore, we must examine several factors to work out the reasons behind the loss in seats and votes.
Measuring the SNP’s electoral performance by an increase in their vote from the previous election, the 2007 and 2011 Scottish Parliament elections (scoring a surprise minority and majority government respectively) and the 2015 General Election are successes. The 2014 Scottish independence referendum also saw the SNP-led yes movement increase its vote by roughly 15% over the campaign. On the same measure, the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections (losing their majority and barely taking any list seats), 2017 local elections (not forming a majority on a single council) and 2017 General Election are not successes. What do the successful elections have in common that the unsuccessful ones do not?
I first became interested in politics through the independence referendum in 2014. Two events captured my imagination and fuelled my interest in social issues — both from the yes movement. The optimism and enthusiasm emitted was infectious. It is conceivable that many who voted yes to independence and for the SNP in 2015 voted with the intention to make Scotland a fairer society. The vision the SNP put forward in 2015 was like that of the yes movement. The election would not be a mandate for independence; rather there could be further devolution and the SNP’s MPs would end austerity, promote investment and create jobs. The reaction of the three other parties was to slam a second referendum, which wasn’t being proposed. The negative tactics clashed with the SNP’s positive vision and left them far better off.
The positive message put forward by the SNP gradually eroded. Put under pressure to drop any plans, Nicola Sturgeon stated the only way for a second vote was if there were a ‘material change of circumstances’. This sensible approach respected the result but kept to the SNP’s key aim. The mistake then was to take negative swipes at the UK government without presenting anything positive. The SNP’s own governmental record was squeezed by Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats whilst the Green Party also pressured them on fracking and air passenger duty. The SNP’s manifesto was timid and cautious, contrasting poorly with the creativity and imagination that the 2007 and 2011 governments had shown (eg. free tuition fees and commitment to renewable energy), and the campaign closed with the SNP releasing videos persuading Green voters to vote tactically for them on the proportional list. They subsequently lost their majority.
The 2017 local council election campaign continued in a similar vein, with the resurgent Conservatives demanding the SNP take independence plans off the table after the Brexit vote fulfilled the SNP’s conditions for one. Again, independence was the only attractive prospect for potential SNP voters as their manifesto did not point to what they had done in their majority-run councils and promised nothing to radically reform public services. The campaign again descended into the SNP promoting negative messages urging voters to “keep the Tories out of our town halls”. They became the largest party on most councils; however their net increase of seats was artificially inflated by good performances in larger councils such as Glasgow, masking their poor performances in smaller authorities.
The 2017 General Election campaign contained none of the creativity put forward two years earlier. Nicola Sturgeon specified independence in the manifesto, whereby if the SNP secured the most Scottish MPs they would have a ‘triple-lock’, although this mandate was already won in 2016. Her government’s record, particularly that they have not passed a single bill besides the Budget since their election in 2016, was put under scrutiny. MPs did not highlight the progressive platform they could build on from Jeremy Corbyn’s potential premiership. Instead, the SNP asked for tactical votes from Scottish Labour voters. These tactical votes would be coming from those derided as “Red Tory scum” by SNP supporters on social media; the same ‘scum’ who had been accused of supporting the Rape Clause and Conservative austerity and whose UK leadership Nicola Sturgeon herself had ridiculed as being ‘unelectable’ and ‘useless’.
The General Election result in Scotland should be recognised not as a backlash against independence, but against the uninspiring and unimaginative platform the SNP put forward. From 2007–2016, an SNP government introduced free tuition fees, free prescriptions, Curriculum for Excellence and a feminist-driven approach to domestic violence. Whether you believe this to be effective, they are radical reforms. Contrast that with the complete non-use of economic powers of the Scottish Parliament, and using the electoral system to call for other parties such as the Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party to not split the independence vote. The SNP can continue to celebrate their victory without recognising the implications and the recurring theme of winning, but not winning as well as they should have. But if they continue to present negative campaigns and a cautious approach to government, then they will claim this from opposition after 2021.
