Benjamin Graham Ka Intrinsic Value Formula: Ek Saral Samajh (Hinglish)
Stock Market Mein Nivesh: Benjamin Graham Ke Anusaar Stock Ki Asli Kimat Kaise Tay Karein.
Benjamin Graham ko value investing ke pita ke roop mein jaana jaata hai. Unhone kai formulas develop kiye jo ki investors ko stocks ka sahi moolya aanklan karne mein madad karte hain. Aaj hum baat karenge unke sabse prasiddh formula ke baare mein — Intrinsic Value Formula. Yeh formula aapko yeh samajhne mein madad karta hai ki kisi stock ka ‘asli moolya’ (intrinsic value) kya hai aur yeh market price se kaise alag hai.
Graham Ka Original Formula
Benjamin Graham ne apni 1962 ki book “Security Analysis” mein pehli baar yeh formula pesh kiya tha. Yeh formula stock ki intrinsic value calculate karne ke liye hai, jo ki earnings per share (EPS) aur expected growth rate par aadharit hai. Formula kuch is prakar hai:
𝑉 = 𝐸𝑃𝑆 × (8.5+2𝑔)
Jahaan:
- V hai stock ka intrinsic value per share.
- EPS hai earnings per share.
- 8.5 ek aise company ke liye baseline P/E ratio hai jo growth nahi kar rahi hai.
- g hai expected annual growth rate in EPS, jo ki percentage mein vyakt kiya jata hai.
Yeh formula yeh maan ke chalta hai ki agar ek company ki growth zero hai, toh uski P/E ratio 8.5 hogi, aur agar growth hai, toh har 1% growth ke liye usme 2 point add honge.
Revised Formula
Waqt ke saath, jab market conditions aur economic conditions badle, Graham ne is formula ko thoda adjust kiya taaki yeh aaj ke samay mein bhi utna hi kaargar rahe. Naye formula mein ek adjustment ki gayi, jo ki current interest rates ko dekhte hue ki gayi thi:
𝑉 = 𝐸𝑃𝑆 × (8.5+2𝑔) × 4.4/𝑌
Jahaan:
- Y hai current yield on 20-year AAA corporate bonds.
Yeh adjustment isliye kiya gaya taaki formula inflation aur economic growth ke hisaab se adjust ho sake. Yeh naya formula aaj bhi kaafi had tak istemal kiya jata hai.
Formula Ka Istemal Aur Simaaye
- Istemal: Is formula ko istemal karte samay, investor ko chahiye hota hai current EPS aur future growth rate ki ek reasonable estimate. Isse jo value aati hai, V, usse aap current market price ke saath compare kar sakte hain taaki pata chale ki stock undervalued hai ya overvalued.
- Simaaye: Halanki yeh formula kaafi upyogi hai, iski kuch simaaye bhi hain. Sabse badi sima yeh hai ki yeh formula bahut zyada depend karta hai growth rate (g) ke estimate par, jo ki predict karna mushkil ho sakta hai. Iske alawa, yeh kai tarah ke business complexities aur market conditions ko nazarandaaz karta hai jo ki company ke performance ko prabhavit kar sakte hain.
Conclusion:
Benjamin Graham ka Intrinsic Value Formula investors ko yeh samajhne mein madad karta hai ki kisi stock ka asli moolya kya hai aur kya vah us price par kharidne layak hai. Yeh formula ek ‘margin of safety’ provide karta hai, jisse ki agar analysis sahi sabit hota hai, toh nuksaan ki sambhavana kam ho jati hai aur profit ki sambhavana badh jati hai.
