Week of December 6th 2020:
Should teams trade multiple first round picks for Matthew Stafford?
Point inflation in the NFL is a real thing. Per Game points totals have increased every season for the past three years, a finding concomitant with recently implemented rule changes designed to protect offensive skill players from defensive harm or injury. Point inflation implies diminishing returns on the expected value of inflationary assets and at a certain critical point (probably somewhere along the 30–35 ppg) the diminishing value returned by each additional point is less valuable to teams than the increase they would expect to receive in win probability if they instead invested resources into defensive players and schematics in order to prevent additional points from being scored (optimization principal). If a team trades multiple first round picks for a quarterback they would need to have a higher expected gain in returned points per game than they would if they found players via the draft or through free agency that reduced the number of points allowed per game. Football is a situational game. For certain relatively high-scoring teams, (assume 20–27 ppg range) using draft or free agency capital on offensive skill position players would not yield the same expected gain in team winning percentage as it would have if invested in improving key performance metrics on the defensive side.
“Each day I wake and feel my pain, yet here I find myself again. Once awakened, a tiger feels no pain; the Sun still rises through the rain.” —
Things I am thankful for 2020: My Family, my friends, my dogs, grad school, Sunny days, Good Books, Writers Blogs, Summer nights, Fall Leaves, Deep- breathing, meditation, physical therapy, …and that finals are almost over.