US Q2 GDP growth at 4.1% annualised was faster than we expected in our last GEO (3%). While we always expected a bounce back in consumption it was more powerful than anticipated and speaks to the impact of an increasingly tight labour market and strong job growth on consumer income and household’s confidence.
Somewhat ironically in light of the administration’s concerns about external trade, exports also played a major part in the pick-up in growth, helping net trade contribute a full percentage point to annualised quarterly GDP growth. These numbers really bring the possibility of 3% growth for 2018 as a whole into the frame. That would be at least one percentage point faster than US long-run growth potential, putting more pressure on the Fed to continue to raise rates.
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