NBA Playoffs — Western Conference Conversation
An in-depth conversation about the playoff picture in the West
This is the second playoff preview between William and Thomas. Find our look at the Eastern Conference here:
Thomas
I like to divide the West into tiers just like the East, although I think it works out a little differently. I’d put Golden State in one tier by themselves, followed by San Antonio and Houston in a second tier, Utah and LA in a third tier, and then OKC/Memphis/Portland in a fourth and final group. These are admittedly a little arbitrary, but I see GSW as the “should win a championship” tier, SAS/HOU as the “could upset the Warriors if everything breaks right” tier, UTA/LAC as “solid playoff teams,” and the final ones as “good teams with significant flaws.”
Golden State has its sights set on a championship this season, and anything less than that would be a huge disappointment for them. I thought they were vulnerable after Kevin Durant’s injury, but they started playing so well without him that they would still be in the top three even if he weren’t back for the playoffs. He is, of course, so now they’re the massive favorites to win the conference and the title. There’s honestly so much to talk about with the Warriors and how good they are — they have an elite defense too, for example — but their overwhelming skill is something that everyone is already aware of.
The West is, as always, stronger than the East from top to bottom, and that extends to the second tier of teams here. San Antonio and Houston both have better records than Cleveland and Boston, and I’d peg either of these teams as the favorite to make the finals if they weren’t in the Western Conference. The Spurs and Rockets also have pretty convincing wins against the Cavaliers this year, meaning that if the impossible happens and the Warriors lose, Cleveland can’t just waltz into a NBA Championship.
Personally, I’m really excited to watch San Antonio and Houston in the playoffs. They’ll probably draw each other in the second round, and the two vastly different styles that they play would make for an incredible series. The Spurs elite defense, coupled with the suddenly-amazing-at-everything Kawhi Leonard would be a fascinating matchup for Houston’s strategy of shooting every possible three-pointer. And then of course, the winner would see Golden State in the Western Conference Finals. The way things are shaping up right now, that series might be much more entertaining than the actual NBA Finals.
What do you think about all of these teams. What do you see their ceilings as?
William
If we’re looking at The West in tiers as we did The East, I’d have to agree with you on your placement of every team except for LAC. The Clippers just seem lost whenever they play Golden State. It’s like they’ve finally accepted that they just can’t beat Curry & Co. For that reason, I’m treating these tiers as power rankings and I’m bumping them down a couple notches. I actually think Utah and OKC are more dangerous than The Clippers — Utah for depth and chemistry reasons, OKC for their home court and Russ. Their ceiling is winning a round one series and then getting crushed by San Antonio or Houston any way you slice it. They don’t match up well with either of those teams. That LAC/San Antonio series from a few years ago seems like it was so much longer ago than it actually was. The Clippers have not aged well, and I don’t expect them to even make it out of the first round, especially if they end up playing Utah. I could be wrong, but I’m passing hard on The Clippers.
Memphis and Portland are both fun, but barring a Damian Lilliard explosion, I see these teams winning no more than two games collectively in Round One. That being said, Lilliard v. Curry is always exciting, and I’ll definitely be tuning in to watch that duel.
OKC is so much fun to discuss. The potential here is so expansive it’s hard to know where to begin. If we’re purely discussing ceilings, I think it would be foolish to pick them to beat Houston. They have absolutely no depth, and when Russ isn’t in, the offense stalls with the lack of a true #1 scoring option. However, if Russ can string together enough dominating sequences in a home game, I could see Houston dropping a game or two in Oklahoma City. This is by far the most exciting matchup in the first round, even though it seems fairly straightforward in terms of outcome. Russ v. Harden is going to be a lazershow no matter how competitive OKC is. Westbrook has no off switch, and Harden seems like he’s fairly displeased with the recent narratives regarding the MVP race. I really can’t foresee a situation (outside of injury) where this isn’t one of the best Round One series’ in recent memory.
Utah is fine, and I think they beat the Clippers, then push GSW more than they would like to be pushed. However, I still don’t think their ceiling is any higher than a Round One win.
I expect Houston and San Antonio to meet in Round Two, and I can’t wait. I could really see that series going either way, though I’d have to pick The Spurs based on the Popovich factor. Both these teams have a ceiling of reaching the WCFs, where their lack of depth will get them into trouble against Golden State.
As for The Warriors, I can’t imagine a scenario where they lose more than four games throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Durant will probably be able rest a decent bit in Round One, making him fresh for the rest of the postseason. GSW is out for revenge this year, and anything less than a championship would be a significant disappointment.
What matchups are you most looking forward to? Where do you see the most potential for upsets in Round One?
Thomas
That all sounds pretty reasonable to me.
For me, the most interesting first-round series for me is UTA/LAC. I think I’m still a little higher on the Clippers than you, and this series looks like a coin flip to me right now, just because LA has more playoff experience and veteran talent. Right now, it looks like the Clippers will have home-court advantage as well, which adds a level or two of difficulty for the Jazz. Personally, I really want the Jazz to win that series. I think they’re such a fun team, and hopefully some playoff success will help them keep Gordon Hayward and George Hill around in free agency. We’ve all seen the LAC/GSW matchup a few times too many, and it feels like that series could end in five games. Utah on the other hand would be such a fun matchup with the Warriors. There’s almost no chance they would actually win, but it would be fun because their strengths match up really well with the Warriors’ biggest weaknesses. Rudy Robert is easily the best defensive center in the league, and his rebounding, defense, and even offensive skills come at a position where the Warriors lack significant depth. In an era where teams blitz up and down the court, the Warriors are the best at pace and shooting. The Jazz go in a completely different direction with their focus on defense and a slower pace, and I’d love to see these clashing styles.
I also think Houston/OKC would be fun from an entertainment perspective. I’m sure that OKC is going to win at least one game at home, and watching Russ give the fans an upset victory would be a lot of fun.
Outside of those, though, the first round looks a little barren in the West, just because the best teams are so much better than everyone else. I hated to see Kevin Durant get hurt, and I’m glad he’s back, but it was kind of fun to see San Antonio grab the top seed (even if it only lasted for a night). The Warriors are probably going to waltz right into the Western Conference Finals, where they’ll meet either San Antonio or Houston.
Let’s talk about these two teams for a second. The Rockets and Spurs would both be the top seed in the East, and it’s a shame that their conference position is holding them back so much. It’s almost inevitable that they’ll meet in the second round, and that series has the potential to go seven games and be completely ridiculous. Just looking at this hypothetical matchup on paper, I think the Spurs have to be favored, here. This can all change if Houston sets another record for three-point attempts, but if there’s one team that can hang with them defensively it has to be San Antonio. Plus, the Spurs have the best one-on-one defender in the league to cover James Harden. There’s a clip from earlier in the year when these two teams played each other where Houston led the game late in San Antonio. Leonard brings the ball down the court, hits a three-point shot to give SAS the lead, and then blocks a James Harden layup on the other end. It’s one of the most impressive sequences I’ve seen in a while, and it serves as reminder of just how good he can be in the closing possessions of a game. Obviously, a series between these two teams would be a lot more than Leonard vs. Harden. But the fact that the Spurs have the defender best equipped to handle the Rockets’ best player matters a lot.
How do you think this series would go down? What do you expect to see in the second round, or the conference finals?
William
As for what I expect to see in Round Two and the Finals, I only see one potential upset from Round One- Jazz over the Clippers — that could shake things up heading into Round Two. So if things go chalk in Round One, the Round Two matchup I’m most interested in would definitely be Houston vs. San Antonio. Utah/Clippers has the potential to be exciting, but I still think the Warriors would wax either of them.
The more I think about Rockets/Spurs the more excited I get. This is a battle of polar opposites, and the contrasting styles might actually be the most interesting thing to watch outside of the Harden/Kawhi battle. Popovich and D’antoni are both fantastic coaches, and the way they would battle with their game plans would make for a great series. But, while I am a fan of D’antoni’s system — he was one of the godfathers of pace n’ space with Nash/Stoudemaire back in the day — his teams have shown a tendency to shrink in the postseason. For whatever reason, teams are able to scheme around all the shooting, fast breaks and isolation. If anyone can scheme around that system, it’s Popovich and the Spurs.
As for the talent on the court, I think it’s worth noting that top to bottom, the Rockets are probably a more athletic team than the Spurs. Outside of Kawhi, the Spurs don’t have any true dynamic young players that are going to stretch Houston outside of their comfort zones. I’m a big believer in Aldridge, but I think a lot of his utility on defense will be neutralized by the speed of Houston. I do expect him to have a field day offensively, though. As for Kawhi, I think many MVP voters are going to be second-guessing themselves when they see how he performs in this hypothetical series. He has consistently shown an ability to elevate his game in big moments. He’s also a constant source of energy, much like Westbrook (less flashy, of course), and I have a hard time seeing Harden keeping up with Leonard throughout a series. (That’s not a knock on Harden either, I don’t think anyone outside of LeBron or Russ could).
If we’re predicting the outcome of this series, I’m going to roll with the Spurs. The formula in San Antonio is too brilliant and Kawhi is too good (he’s my MVP, btw) for Houston to be able to beat them four times in two weeks.
Also, I’m much more excited for a Houston/San Antonio vs. GSW Western Semifinal than I am for a possible Cavs-GSW Finals matchup for the third year in a row, and I’m guessing you are too.
Thomas
One final thing about the Rockets. One thing I’ve heard a lot of people say about this team — and something I agree with — is that this team has more variance than any other team in the league. They shoot a ridiculous amount of three-pointers, and they’re actually well ahead of GSW/CLE/anyone else in terms of three-point shots attempted per game. They aren’t the best team at making these shots, but they shoot so many that it doesn’t matter. But the idea of variance essentially means this: because they shoot so many threes, they have a much larger amount of reasonable outcomes. When they’re on fire, they can beat Golden State, but when they’re cold they could lose to a team like OKC. This might give them a slightly better chance of beating the Warriors than the Spurs have, but the Spurs’ consistency will probably win out over seven full games. So I’m with you, I think San Antonio is going to win. It’s so easy to forget just how good Gregg Popovich and Kawhi Leonard are, and I’m not going to forget about them this season.
I think Spurs/Warriors would be an interesting semifinals, too. This matchup would feature the two best coaches in the league, and three of the best five or six players. I also really wish I could find some way to pick the Spurs to win it, but I don’t think I can. As good as Popovich is, there’s just too much of a talent disparity between these two teams for him to make up. And like you said with the idea of speed and athleticism, Golden State can play their small lineups and make things really difficult for the Spurs. Aldridge and Pau Gasol can’t both be on the floor when Draymond Green plays center, and that means San Antonio has to roll with less talented players against one of the best teams in NBA history. I love Kawhi to death, but one elite defender can’t stop three elite shooters and some of the best role players in the league.
Since we’re here, let’s at least preview the Finals. I know predicting a Warriors victory will incite a host of “3–1” jokes, but the Cavaliers look like a shell of themselves right now, while Golden State looks better than they have all season. If the two teams played right now, for example, I think the series would barely even get to five games. I also am less confident in the Cavaliers than I’ve been in a while, but we already covered that. They’re still the favorites to get to the Finals, at least. I have to think that they’ll pick up steam along the way, but I don’t know if that will be enough.
What do you expect for this probable Finals matchup? Personally, I think the Warriors will be out for blood from the opening tip-off. I also think there’s a non-zero chance that Green does something stupid (some of his comments about the Cavaliers are borderline violent), but I just don’t see a way for Cleveland to win right now. In all honesty, Golden State was the better team last season, and they’ve gotten even better since then.
William
I’m with you on the Finals. In my opinion, a much more interesting matchup would be Toronto-GSW, but I don’t think we’re going to see that. LeBron has a way of willing his teams to victory, and he’s been to the Finals so many times in a row, I think it’s something of a muscle memory for him at this point.
At the same time, I don’t see any way Cleveland can beat GSW. Just looking at the potential matchups is exhausting if you’re Cleveland. Kyrie (on a good night) and LeBron can hold their own against Curry and Durant, but once you get to Klay and Draymond, things get a little out of hand. Not to mention the fact that if LeBron sits for a few minutes here or there, things will probably really start to unravel if you’re Cleveland. The Cavs won’t be able to match GSW’s intensity and thirst for revenge. I’ll take GSW in 6, but it wouldn’t shock me if they won in 5.
[Just a sidenote: As a Hawks fan, I’m very interested to see how Cleveland will use Korver in a series against Golden State. If they can get creative, he could be an x-factor coming off the bench for them]
All in all, it should be a fun postseason. The NBA playoffs are so rewarding for the people that keep up with it during the regular season, I can’t wait.
You can find us on Twitter:
