NFC Championship Preview—Expert Conversation

As the Packers and Falcons prepare for the NFC Championship on Sunday, two life-long followers of each team (Thomas Jenkins and William Heston) break down what to expect

Thomas:

What are you expecting on Sunday? For me, the first thing that jumps out about this matchup is how eerily similar these two teams are. They both rely on elite passing attacks, complemented by solid running games. Atlanta has been more consistently good from the offensive end for the season as a whole, although Green Bay has been a little better over the past several weeks. These two teams also have pretty similar defenses, which I would characterize as mediocre to bad. So from the very outset, this looks like a shootout waiting to happen, which could give rise to a historically great NFC Championship game. This game also has two of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, which I think is pretty clearly beyond dispute. FiveThirtyEight gives Atlanta about a 60–40 edge to win the game, which seems about right to me. Either way, this should be a fantastic game.

William:

So I think it’s definitely clear that these teams have some very obvious similarities. It’s an offensive heavy matchup, with both teams showing clear proficiencies in passing the ball. I think the shootout is inevitable. Vegas opened this with a 58.5 over under, and I think you’d have to be insane to bet the under. If you’re into that sort of thing, that is. Sometimes when you have explosive offenses like this, they somehow cancel each other out, but I would be very surprised if that happened Sunday. These offenses are too good, and these defenses are too bad.

You mentioned consistency, and I would agree ATL has been more consistent throughout the season. But we’re also at that point in the season where I’m not sure consistency is better than being red hot. We see it so often where a team just gets hot at the right time. Now, I also think both teams are hot. It’s just that Rodgers entering God-mode is a complete other level of hot. It’s a cheat code.

Would now be a good time to talk about how much I dread, hate, and am in awe of Aaron Rodgers? I was in the building in 2011 when he torched a 1-seed ATL, and I have had a healthy distaste for him ever since. It’s not that I don’t think he’s good, or don’t respect him (if we’re being objective, I think he’s clearly the MVP). It’s just that he’s so smug, and has a punchable face, and smiles when he gets hit, then gets up and burns your secondary the next play. Earlier this year I remember journalists like Colin Cowherd (who I actually like) talk about how perhaps Rodgers had taken a step back. I really wish Rodgers would have called a press conference at some point and said something like “rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated,” a la Mark Twain. I would have hated him for it, but he would be right.

So essentially my feelings on this game can be boiled down to the following:

1. I really don’t want to lose to Aaron Rodgers in the Georgia Dome again

2. This game, at its core, feels like Matt Ryan vs Aaron Rodgers. If you had told me even this past September that the NFC Championship would feature this matchup, I would have laughed, and then surrendered.

For some reason, this time around, I’m actually confident it Matty Ice. Am I crazy?

Thomas:

I don’t think you’re crazy at all to trust Ryan. He’s been elite this season, and a solid MVP choice (honestly, I think either he or Rodgers is a good choice for the award). Last week against Seattle, he controlled the game from beginning to end and looked comfortable the whole time. I saw several shots of him talking to his teammates on the sideline, looking like the leader that the Falcons drafted him to be. While leadership doesn’t always go hand-in-hand with talent, he definitely has both and has shown them all season.

In this game, the Packers might be facing the only offense in the league that they can’t blow out of the water. While I think Rodgers is definitely going to put up crazy numbers, it’s easy to see Ryan matching him pass for pass. With all due respect to Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant, Ryan and Julio Jones are by far the best combination that Green Bay’s secondary has faced all postseason. While I would say that the Packers’ secondary is at least league-average when fully healthy, that doesn’t really matter. Jones is a nightmare matchup for some of the smaller defensive backs Green Bay has to rely on. It’s similar for Atlanta too, though, since it’s hard to see them outscoring Green Bay by much. Davante Adams and Randall Cobb have been phenomenal over the last few weeks, and I’d expect that to continue on Sunday.

In a game where each offense can score at will, every possession becomes vital. A dropped pass on third down, a bad play play call on second-and-long, or a misused timeout could all be the difference in this game, and I haven’t been a huge fan of Green Bay’s clock management this season. In the final minutes of last week’s game, for example, they kept running the ball against the Cowboys even though Dallas had enough timeouts to stop the clock. Mike McCarthy does a lot of things right, but he’s consistently out-thought himself in late game situations in the last few playoffs. I don’t really think that will come into play here, since this should be a pretty close game from start to finish, but this is another little thing that could be the difference.

How do you feel about Vic Beasley? Green Bay has a pretty solid offensive line, but his ability to pass rush could be another difference-maker.

William:

I really think Atlanta’s pass rush is the key for both teams in this game. Even if ATL’s secondary was in good shape and not missing Desmond Trufant, Rodgers doesn’t seem to care who’s covering his receivers. So it’s really going to be up to Vic Beasley to have a big game. He had a couple sacks when the two teams met earlier this year, and a couple timely big plays, even if that means just getting pressure and forcing a bad throw, could be the difference in the game. Rodgers has obviously shown an ability to scramble well, but I think Beasley might be the fastest lineman he’s played in the last several weeks. Again, even if Beasley can’t cause a sack or a fumble, pressure is going to be key. If Rodgers has time, it’s going to be a long, long day for Atlanta.

Another thing I’m interested in watching this week is the coaching matchup. I’ll be the first to admit that I was worried enough about Quinn going up against his former HC last week in Pete Carroll. Quinn has shown a propensity to be aggressive, and sometimes chase points (see: Falcons-Chiefs earlier this year). McCarthy on the other hand seems to be just riding it out with Rodgers’ arm. That’s not a bad strategy. And when it comes down to it, McCarthy has won a super bowl. He’s been here before. This is a huge test for Quinn, and I’ll be interested to see how he handle the big moments. It’ll also be interesting to see how he game plans for Rodgers. As a defensive guy, Id like to think he’ll be able to dial up some difficult looks for Rodgers, but we’ll have to see.

Here’s a stat I saw this week that I’m curious to hear your take on: Rodgers is apparently 1–17 as an underdog when his team gives up 26+ points, with his first win under those circumstances being last week against Dallas (Credit: Scott Kacsmar). Also of note, Atlanta has scored 28+ in every home game but one. First, I couldn’t believe that was the case. Second, I’m not sure how many QB’s could reasonably be expected to win under those circumstances. Curious to hear your thoughts.

Finally, in your opinion, what’s the worst case scenario for both teams here? What could go wrong that would ensure a loss on either side?

For the Falcons, I think this would involve an inability to run the ball, forcing Ryan to match Rodgers blow for blow. And again, I’m very confident in Ryan, but I don’t think any team would be pleased at the prospect of having their QB go toe-to-toe with Rodgers this week, no matter who it is.

For the Packers, I think if their O-line gets banged up early or just has trouble with Atlanta’s speed in the front 7, that could really start to spell trouble.

I’m also starting to realize just how much fun this game will be to watch. It’s the kind of game that I anticipate seeing reruns of on NFL Network in 5+ years.

Thomas:

Regarding the Rodgers stat, I do find that a little surprising, but I think it’s also somewhat like saying “teams that give up a ton of points usually don’t win.” I would expect his record to be at least slightly better though, so that is an interesting stat. During Green Bay’s four-game losing streak earlier this year, the Packers allowed over 30 points in each contest (although they scored at least 24 in each game too), which I think shows how important it is to slow down one’s opponent at least a little. Even the best offenses suffer when paired with a porous defense, which we’ve seen both the Falcons and Packers go through (to varying extents) this season.

I agree with you that Green Bay’s worst-case scenario is injury, although I’m not sure if it’s on the offensive line or not. Losing any of those player would hurt, but the biggest area of concern for me is the secondary. As much as the Packers’ defensive backs have suffered this season, any more injuries there could be catastrophic. Players like Micah Hyde and Morgan Burnett have been very good over the past few weeks, and some of the backups are players who probably wouldn’t be in the NFL for even a moderately healthy team.

I think you’re right about the Falcons and the importance of running the ball. I’m not sure how that’s going to go, to be honest. Green Bay’s run defense has been decent all season, and is definitely better than the pass defense. They struggled against Ezekiel Elliot last week (no surprises there), and I could see that happening again with Devonta Freeman. That’s probably another matchup to keep an eye on, and the same could be true for the Packers’ run game vs. the Falcon’s defense as well. Ty Montgomery has been excellent for the last few weeks, and his receiver skills help him be a truly versatile offensive threat.

Let’s turn around and look at best-case scenarios.

I think for Green Bay, it starts with having everyone healthy. Jordy Nelson is a long shot to play, but if Morgan Burnett, Damarious Randall, and Davante Adams are all healthy then this team will be much stronger. Several key players are struggling through lingering injuries, and any measure of recovery they can find this week would be huge.

For Atlanta, it might just be as simple as keeping the offense firing on all cylinders. They’ve been truly phenomenal, and the consistency over the last few weeks has been beautiful to watch.

What do you think?

William:

I think for Atlanta, the best case scenario is an ability to slow Rodgers down by getting pressure, then potentially getting a turnover. If that happens, I think Atlanta could be well on their way to a Super Bowl appearance. All Matt Ryan needs is one or maybe two big stops on defense, and he can handle the rest. At least that’s how it’s gone thus far this season. To wrap that up, if the defense plays as well as it has at times this year (as bad as that is when compared to the rest of the league), I think Atlanta gets it done.

I think for Green Bay, health is huge. If Jordy Nelson is somehow able to play, that could really change everything. But assuming he’s out, I think the best case for GB is an consistent ability to keep Rodgers upright. If he’s running for his life for 60 minutes, it’s hard to see the Packers pulling the upset. On the other hand, if he has time, I think the Falcons are obviously in deep trouble.

Interesting how even in a game with such an absurd amount of offensive firepower, it really comes down to line play.

I also think whichever team wins the turnover battle, even if its 1–0, will win the game. These QBs are too good to be giving extra possessions to.

One other point about Atlanta’s defense is this, and I think its something to watch: I think the Falcons’ defensive numbers are skewed pretty badly. Sure, this team is young and inexperienced. But as far as points/yards allowed, I think they are much better than the stat sheets will show. In most wins this season, they have been playing with the cushion of a large lead. This leads to teams throwing the ball for much of the 3rd and 4th quarter, and inevitably, some of this plays are going to hit, especially when your best corner (Trufant) is out, and you’re playing backups. People talk all the time about what a great “garbage time” QB Blake Bortles is. In the same vein, I think Atlanta is just a terrible “garbage time” defense. I think that’s something to watch this weekend. Call it homerism (it probably is), but I actually think this secondary is a little bit better than most casual viewers and fans might think.

Who’s the impact player you’re looking out for this week on both sides? Besides QB, of course. I think that is a given. But beyond that, is there anyone you feel could have an impact that people might not be thinking about?

For Green Bay I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s Julius Peppers. Robert Mays talked last week about how he has had 7 sacks in each of 14 different years in the league. That’s insane! 7! I think if he’s able to get pressure and cause some issues, that could really have an impact on Ryan. Wiley veteran players like him are so fun to watch in games like these, and I’m interested to see how he does.

For the Falcons, I’m gonna say Mohammed Sanu. Julio Jones is going to be closely watched, and when that happens, Sanu shines, as he did against GB earlier this year. If the Falcons win, I think his stat sheet will show 6+ catches and a TD, maybe two. And when the 2nd and 3rd options for Atlanta get going, you know they’re cooking as a whole.

Your thoughts?

Thomas:

I like your point about impact players, and I think Peppers and Sanu are both important to watch. Peppers has definitely been showing his age a little recently, but he can still explode through the line for one or two big plays a game, which is honestly all that they’re paying him for at this point. For Sanu, I’m on the same page with you. There’s no way Green Bay’s secondary can guard him and Jones, and both of them getting going could be a recipe for disaster.

For the Packers though, I think Davante Adams could be the most important. At this point I’m expecting that Nelson isn’t going to play, and Adams has been the player who fills his role in case of injury. When Nelson missed all of last season, Adams struggled at first but eventually managed to figure everything out and that’s been true for most of this season. Right now his status is up in the air, and Green Bay could be in trouble without him. He’s the guy that can stretch the field and open up more opportunities for Jared Cook and Randall Cobb. Without him, Rodgers has to rely on much less proven talent. For example, we’re probably all heard how Rodgers just drew up the final play against the Cowboys in his head, and I’m not sure that works as well with younger players.

Let’s get to final predictions:

If you played this game 10 times, I think each team would win between 4–6 times. Essentially, this is almost a coinfip. If it were in Green Bay, I’d feel pretty confident about the Packers winning, but of course it’s in Atlanta. I checked the tickets link right after Mason Crosby broke every Dallas fans’ hearts, and the tickets were selling insanely fast. Point is, this is one of those weekends when the Falcons fans bring every ounce of enthusiasm and energy that is so often lacking in Atlanta sporting events. This is something that I’ve found is largely true of both Hawks and Falcons games — the crowds really are much better in the playoffs. Even watching on TV last week against Seattle, it was easy to tell how excited everyone was.

I’ll make my prediction with the caveat that I only have a slight degree of confidence (it’s probably about 55–45 in my mind as I type this). But I think the Packers are going to win. If Adams doesn’t play, or if they lose even more more player from their swiss-cheese secondary, this may all change. And maybe I’m believing in the Rodgers legend a little too much. But I felt the same away going into Dallas, and that ended up being right. Let me be clear, though: the Falcons are better than the Cowboys and I would not be surprised either way.

What do you think?

William:

I definitely think it could go either way. I’ll still ride with my Dirty Birds, even though I could see things going the other way, and the fact that a lot of national writers I follow have been all in on ATL as well… (As anyone from Atlanta knows, just when you start believing in a team, that’s when they decide to collapse. They can sense the confidence)

On your point about key players, I think Adams is certainly a key player for GB. I had him on my fantasy team this year, so I’m well aware of his capabilities. I could see him absolutely going off Sunday.

It’ll be loud in the Georgia Dome for sure, though. When I was there for the Falcons-49ers NFCG, the atmosphere was absolutely electric, and I expect it to be the same Sunday. For all the bad reputation ATL fans receive, to your point, they do show up for the playoffs.

Regardless of what happens, I’m looking forward to the game. It should be a doozy. I can’t wait.

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