The NBA Has a Parity Problem
But that isn’t the whole story
When Kevin Durant signed with the Golden State Warriors last summer, there were several reactions. Many were overjoyed (as the Warriors bandwagon quickly swelled past its max capacity, the recent 3–1 blown lead temporarily forgotten). Many were horrified, particularly those who cheer for any Western Conference team NOT named the Warriors. And finally, many were skeptical of how any team could compete with the new-look Golden State. So far, they’ve been right.
Last night, Draymond Green offered his opinion on the Eastern Conference playoff teams (the link to the video, from ESPN, is here). To paraphrase, he commented that Cleveland has been playing very well. “The other teams?” he continued, “not so much.” Green gave this comment just moments after praising the Utah Jazz and their level of effort, but his point could apply to to either the Warriors’ or the Cavaliers’ playoff runs so far. They’ve both 8–0, and have barely looked like they’re even trying for much of these playoffs.
All of this begs the question: is there a lack of parity in the NBA? The short answer is undeniably yes. Golden State and Cleveland are miles ahead of their competition, but it’s possible that the Warriors are on their own plane even beyond that. I struggle to see a Finals series where the Cavaliers can actually beat this team. In fact, the only reason that it even looms as a possibility is because it already happened once. In this case, though, the past results don’t suggest future success. As long as Draymond Green holds his temper, Stephen Curry stays healthy, and Kevin Durant is merely on the floor, there is a clear and massive favorite for NBA champion.
But I want to dive a little deeper into the issue of parity, because I think it’s worth exploring. The idea that “anyone can win” adds excitement to a lot of sports, and it’s one of the reasons that college basketball and the MLB playoffs are so exciting. With the uncertainty floating around these sports’ postseasons, the idea that anything can happen is a key ingredient to viewership and storylines.
The NBA doesn’t have that. And, truth be told, that isn’t necessarily unique to this year. In 2017 there are only two teams that have a widely-acknowledged chance of winning. This is different from future years, but not by much. Some years there may be three, four, or even five teams that have a legitimate chance of winning a championship. That’s more than two, but not by much.
As far as how this affects the sport, it cuts both ways. The NBA Finals are more exciting because of their inevitability, since the first three rounds of the playoffs drum up the intensity and stakes of the matchup. Because the last two teams standing are usually the best two in the league, the last seven-game series feels like a clash of titans, a monumental struggle with the best talent in the world and the highest stakes imaginable. That’s legitimately enthralling, and it’s the best of what the league has to offer.
But there’s a real cost, too. That cost is 30 other teams toiling through the year, knowing that they have literally no chance of winning a title. In baseball or football, teams at the midpoint of the year are still typically willing to go all-in to make the playoffs. A playoff spot is worth trying for, since it carries the tantalizing possibility of postseason success. In the NBA, the final few playoff spots look like death sentences. And teams like the Jazz, the Celtics, the Wizards, and the Clippers fight all season for a chance to get blown out by a finalist.
In truth, much of this is temporary. Durant wouldn’t be on the Warriors without a ridiculous, one-time cap spike, and the league becomes much closer if he’s still on the Thunder. And I don’t say this to criticize any team or player. It made sense for the Warriors to pursue Durant, and it made sense for him to go to Oakland. If there’s any blame to be cast, it belongs at the feet of the league itself.
And I should also clarify, for anyone who has read this far, that this doesn’t ruin basketball for me. I love the sport, and the league, and the playoffs are always fun to watch. Once the finals arrive, the question of parity will understandably go away. We’ll all enjoy the Warriors beating the Cavs, and then turn to the draft and free agency with the same excitement we have every year. Just because I recognize something I don’t like about the sport doesn’t mean that I’ve turned away from the game altogether.
But perhaps this is the best way I can sum up how I feel about this. If someone t0ld me that he or she didn’t want to watch the NBA playoffs because it all felt so predetermined, I wouldn’t have a good response. It does feel predetermined, and it’s quite possible that this turns people off from the sport and the league. And I think that this is at least worth thinking about.
