Coronavirus

Pandemic of Possibility

We may have not been prepared, but crisis brings opportunity.

DISEASE X.

The World Health Organisation had added the unknown disease to a list of the world’s deadliest known infectious diseases as far back as 2018. Ebola was there. SARS and MERS were there too. Disease X was down the list at number 8. An unknown quantity. The WHO described it with the added caveat that: “[it] represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease.”

Following the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the WHO drew up the list in order to be better prepared for epidemics. The disease, said Marion Koopmans, Head of Viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Centre in Rotterdam and member of the WHO advisory group for research and development, is a “threat to the world. It’s socially disrupting, and we need to come up with ways of detecting it, controlling it, treating it, preventing it on the fly — to me that is a Disease X.”

The world waited…and waited. Global industrialisation continued apace, global travel and transit continued, nonchalant, oblivious to the eerie, deathly silent havoc that Disease X would unleash.

November 17, 2019. According to a report in the South China Morning Post, a 55-year-old man from Hubei province displayed the first signs and symptoms of the infectious disease which we now know as COVID-19. The report goes on to note that from that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day: “By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 — the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 — and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60.”

t was only on December 27 that Zhang Jixian, a Doctor from Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine reported to Chinese Health Authorities that a novel (new)coronavirus had been discovered. It is thought that by then over 180 people had already been infected by the disease, with many Doctors unaware of the rapid rise in new cases. While China remains tight-lipped about the early days of the disease, it is now thought that the infection rate had risen rapidly from 266 on December 31 2019, to 381 on January 1 2020. From there, it was only a matter of time before the WHO first declared COVID-19 an epidemic in China, then a global pandemic on March 11 2020. And as of April 22, 2020, the number of total confirmed cases stands at 2,622,571 according to the Johns Hopkins University and Medicine Coronavirus Research Centre.

REALITY.

Much has already been made of COVID-19. Across the globe, healthcare professionals have raised awareness of issues such as the dire shortage in PPE equipment, a clear lack of tracing and testing procedures and the sheer public indifference to the virus. Scientific attention has been focused on tracing patient zero, the animal to human transmission, which caused the pandemic, the potential avenues for tracking the spread, and the development of vaccines. Media attention has rightly been placed on flattening the curve, hand-washing, social distancing, and staying home. Yet, at the same time, there is no avoiding the cold, hard truth of the matter. The world was unprepared for the unprecedented devastation the disease would wrought. Country after country has fallen prey to COVID-19. Borders are shut. Flights are grounded. Airports are closed. Global economies are beginning to tumble. Businesses have shut. Unemployment is slowly creeping up. Amidst the chaos, the virus keeps spreading. COVID-19 simply does not care about geography, race, religion, creed or age. Not since the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918 has the world suddenly stopped due to such dire natural causes.

Italy and Spain, two of the old-guard countries of Europe, find themselves in devastation. The numbers make for morbid reading. 208,389 cases and 21,717 deaths in Spain. 187,327 cases and 25,085 deaths in Italy. In the East, India is struggling to contain and mitigate the spread. Locking down India’s 1.3 billion people for 21 days was always going to be the tallest of tall orders, but now the untold consequences are coming to the fore.

With millions of workers losing their daily wages, basic food and water shortages are rapidly increasing. With India’s poor numbering 369 million and earning less than $1.90 a day, the long-term consequences could be devastating. As one migrant worker told an Al-Jazeera report on the issue, “it won’t be Coronavirus that gets to me first. It’ll be a lack of food and starvation.”

Africa, which continues to deal with outbreaks of deadly infectious diseases such as Ebola, Dengue and TB, now has COVID-19 to contend with. Over 7,100 cases have been reported, with the reported epicentre of the outbreak being South Africa. Yet that only explains half the story, as tests across the continent are hugely infrequent, thereby slowing down tracking and tracing.

In the USA, concern has been raised about those looking to profit from the scale and magnitude of the pandemic. Richard Burr, Republican Senator and Chairman of the powerful Senate Intelligence Committee, sold $1.72 million of his shares just hours after reassuring the US public that the country was prepared for the pandemic. Seven days later, the US stock market plunged wiping out 30% from existing stock value. Over in the UK, companies have had to tighten budgets and purse strings with many either furloughing staff or letting staff go altogether. Small businesses and start-ups have had to apply for various government schemes to stay afloat and keep going.

Globally, as reality sinks in, we are forced to reevaluate the very ways that we live our lives. Our normal routines have been disrupted. The values which we used to hold dear and think of as seemingly intrinsic are no-more. From splashing our cash on expensive coffees, to long and short-haul holidays, to ignoring our carbon footprints, we are now instead looking at our immediate survival. While world leaders and politicians will tell us that life will go back to normal, we have to ask ourselves tough questions. What is normal? Is the new normal face masks, social distancing and constant hand washing? Or is the new normal more solidarity, a re-affirmation of community, family and a new era of togetherness? If there was ever a moment to think about our futures, it is now, because the elephant in the room has had to take an inconvenient backseat. Climate Change.

A WARNING FROM THE PAST.

If we are to believe China’s CDC, the site of the first known case for SARS CoV-2 was a wet market in Wuhan, China. In short, wet markets are markets selling wet products such as meat, fish and poultry. These markets differentiate significantly from dry markets which sell durable goods such as electronics and fabrics. At this particular wet market, wild animals and wildlife products were also sold. Pangolins and Bats at the market carried strains of the virus which were genetically similar to the human strain. It was clear that zoonotic disease transmission had occurred and Chinese authorities subsequently placed an immediate ban on all wild animal wet markets. Yet the danger of wildlife wet markets remain, as China has instated then subsequently removed the bans on numerous previous occasions. The question that remains isn’t whether the ban will stay in place, but how the zoonotic wet markets came to exist in the first place, why this is so significant to our now seemingly surreal futures and how their existence and our behaviour greatly impacts climate change.

China, in the ’60s and ’70s, was in the midst of a deadly crisis. The Great Famine of the late ’60s had led to the death of over 30 million people. In a desperate attempt to feed their people, the Chinese government relaxed the laws governing agriculture, livestock and farming. In 1978, the CCP allowed for the first time, private farming. While government-owned farms and international corporations controlled much of the agricultural and livestock production, smaller independent farmers began catching wild animals in an attempt to feed their families and sustain themselves. Ten years later, the CCP seeing the rise and growth of wildlife farms enacted a law which would change wildlife farming forever. The Wildlife Protection Law designated wild animals as “resources owned by the state”. The law also encouraged the “domestication and breeding of wildlife”. In doing so, the CCP opened up Pandora’s box.

Small farmers could now turn their insignificant wildlife farms into money-making behemoths. Pretty soon, the wildlife farms weren’t just trading China’s own wildlife, they began trading in the illegal wildlife industry. Endangered animals such as Tigers, Pangolins and White Rhinos were trafficked into China and sold on for huge profits. Inevitably, zoonotic diseases started popping up out of seemingly nowhere, as was the case with SARS, which was traced to Civet Cats sold at a wet market in Foshan in the Guangdong province. Yet while Chinese authorities closed down the wildlife wet markets, they were reopened months after the SARS virus had died down. The reason for this is clear. The wildlife wet markets are worth over 148 billion Yuan to China’s GDP, therefore the CCP are hesitant to lose a small but highly valuable portion of their GDP.

So why do the wet markets in China correlate to our actions in the West? Because our actions here will determine all our futures.

THE FUTURE.

What we do now will not only change the course of the pandemic, it will also shape large parts of our collective futures. Reverting to the status quo and going back to things, as usual, is not the answer. While long-term climate change is unavoidable, small incremental changes can take place, and it is our collective responsibility to ensure that these changes are permanent. A key aspect that should be noted is the levels of CO2 and NO2, which have dropped to remarkably low levels since global lockdowns came into force. Several climate experts have gone on record to state that the reduction levels are unprecedented (there’s that word again!).

Professor Rob Jackson chair of the Global Carbon Project, a watchdog that seeks to quantify global greenhouse gas emissions and their causes, said to Reuters, “I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 5 per cent drop or more in carbon dioxide emissions this year something not seen since the end of World War Two. Neither the fall of the Soviet Union nor the various oil or savings and loan crises of the past 50 years are likely to have affected emissions the way the crisis is.”

Jackson also stated that “after world greenhouse gas emissions dipped in the aftermath of the 2007–2008 global financial crisis, they shot back up a whopping 5.1% in the recovery.”

Many climate experts fear that the temporary dip will result in a sharp rebound as the COVID-19 crisis plateaus. The major global emitters — China, United States, The European Union & The United Kingdom — eager to restart their ailing economies, will pump stimulus packages into the economy and with the world still dependent on fossil fuels for 80% of its energy, the common consensus is that the breather the planet is currently undergoing is nothing more than a short-term lull.

Speaking to Reuters, Pierre Friedlingstein, chair in mathematical modelling of the climate system at the University of Exeter said, “even if there is a decline in emissions in 2020, let’s say 10% or 20%, it’s not negligible, it’s important, but from a climate point of view, it would be a small dent if emissions go back to pre-COVID-19 crisis levels in 2021.”

All of this doesn’t bode well for the future. With the likelihood of limiting average global temperatures to 1.5C — the most ambitious Paris agreement goal — growing ever smaller, there are those small incremental changes that could likely tip the balance in favour of renewable energy and lower carbon emissions. While we wait for governments to stop pumping billions of taxpayers money into new fossil fuel technologies, we could reduce our own carbon footprints by travelling less.

The carbon burning airline industry is responsible for 32% of all global CO2 emissions and with non-essential airline travel expected to drop by a staggering 62% post-COVID-19, it could be the stimulus that renewable energy needs to find greener and cleaner methods of air travel. The fundamental consequences in the reduction of air travel would mean that frequently visited long-haul destinations such as Sri Lanka, India, Thailand, Indonesia et al., would be able to allow their flora and fauna to thrive again (government permitting of course).

If indeed China continues to ban wet wildlife markets, then we could start to see a resurgence of livable habitats for endangered species such as the Pangolin and the Bengali Tiger. As a consequence of their habitats not being cleared for farming, agriculture, livestock and palm oil, these animals would likely not be poached, thereby no longer be in danger of transmitting zoonotic diseases to humans. The result? A minuscule chance of fewer epidemics and far fewer pandemics. A tad idealistic perhaps, but plausible and achievable.

In this surreal new future, what else could be achieved? Crisis moments represent not only periods of solemn reflection and solitude but also an opportunity. An opportunity, first of all, to be thankful for the selfless healthcare professionals and other key workers who keep what we call our lives steady and afloat. Furthermore, we’ve perhaps revived our appreciation for what really matters: community, family, friends, our local neighbourhoods and local produce. Finally, this moment presents us with the opportunity to re-imagine our lives in ways which we thought not possible pre-COVID-19.

Speaking to Politico Magazine, Deborah Tannen, Professor of Linguistics at Georgetown University and author of You’re the Only One I Can Tell: Inside the Language of Women’s Friendships, said:

This loss of innocence, or complacency[due to COVID-19], is a new way of being-in-the-world that we can expect to change our doing-in-the-world. We know now that touching things, being with other people and breathing the air in an enclosed space can be risky. How quickly that awareness recedes will be different for different people, but it can never vanish entirely for anyone who lived through this year. It could become second nature to recoil from shaking hands or touching our faces — and we might all find we can’t stop washing our hands.

The comfort of being in the presence of others might be replaced by a greater comfort with absence, especially with those we don’t know intimately. Instead of asking, “Is there a reason to do this online?” we’ll be asking, “Is there any good reason to do this in person?” — and might need to be reminded and convinced that there is. Unfortunately, if unintendedly, those without easy access to broadband will be further disadvantaged. The paradox of online communication will be ratcheted up: It creates more distance, yes, but also more connection, as we communicate more often with people who are physically farther and farther away — and who feel safer to us because of that distance.

Sherry Turkle, the American internet pioneer and Professor of Social Studies and Science at MIT, also spoke to Politico and went on to say:

Perhaps we can use our time with our devices to rethink the kinds of community we can create through them. In the earliest days of our Coronavirus social distancing, we have seen inspirational first examples. Cello master Yo-Yo Ma posts a daily live concert of a song that sustains him. Broadway diva Laura Benanti invites performers from high school musicals who are not going to put on those shows to send their performances to her. She’ll be watching; Lin-Manuel Miranda joins the campaign and promises to watch as well. Entrepreneurs offer time to listen to pitches. Master yoga instructors teach free classes. This is a different life on the screen from disappearing into a video game or polishing one’s avatar. This is breaking open a medium with human generosity and empathy. This is looking within and asking: “What can I authentically offer? I have a life, a history. What do people need?” If moving forward, we apply our most human instincts to our devices, that will have been a powerful COVID-19 legacy. Not only alone together, but together alone.

The societal, economic and geopolitical upheaval caused by COVID-19 is unlike anything any of us have ever experienced in our lifetimes. As we have seen, the consequences posed by the scale of the pandemic will be devastating yet also transformative. What if our new normal is a revival of appreciation for our community as seen in Italy, Spain, the UK and many other nations?

Post COVID-19, what if Western governments actually stopped causing horrific conflicts due to their lust for oil, in already depressed and distressed countries like Syria, Yemen and Palestine and actually focused on tackling issues such as climate change?

Sonia Shah, author of Pandemic: Tracking Contagions From Cholera to Ebola and Beyond and the forthcoming The Next Great Migration: The Beauty and Terror of Life on the Move, also speaking to Politico states:

In the best-case scenario, the trauma of the pandemic will force society to accept restraints on mass consumer culture as a reasonable price to pay to defend ourselves against future contagions and climate disasters alike. For decades, we’ve sated our outsized appetites by encroaching on an ever-expanding swath of the planet with our industrial activities, forcing wild species to cram into remaining fragments of habitat in closer proximity to ours. That’s what has allowed animal microbes such as SARS-COV2 — not to mention hundreds of others from Ebola to Zika — to cross over into human bodies, causing epidemics. In theory, we could decide to shrink our industrial footprint and conserve wildlife habitat, so that animal microbes stay in animals’ bodies, instead. More likely, we’ll see less directly relevant transformations. Universal basic income and mandatory paid sick leave will move from the margins to the centre of policy debates. The end of mass quarantine will unleash pent-up demand for intimacy and a mini baby-boom. The hype around online education will be abandoned, as a generation of young people forced into seclusion will reshape the culture around a contrarian appreciation for communal life.

Universal basic income, an ideal which for so long has floundered politically, could become front and centre of political discussions over the next decade. Building society and economy from the ground-up is not a political statement. It’s common sense. Focusing on universal basic income, universal healthcare, meaningful jobs, free education and a healthy, green environment should be the building blocks upon which the principles of society are founded on, not the profit-building exercise we’ve grown so used to.

Let’s take the long view instead of jumping the gun in favour of short-term pragmatism. Post COVID-19, we have the opportunity to create a lasting legacy. Let’s not allow it to be one where we’re remembered for being the generation that was aware of everything and did nothing. Let’s create an unprecedented legacy. Let’s be remembered as the generation who survived the pandemic, was aware of everything, and changed it all. For good.

Originally published in Wild Electric on April 8, 2020. Authored by Edward Herath.