Rising Sea Levels Threaten Coastal Florida
By Carrie Elizabeth Bradon | The Florida Free Press
ORLANDO — From algal blooms to an over-reliance on the aquifer system, Florida’s water quality concerns abound, and rising sea levels highlight complex threats that the state and its waterways face.
According to Sea Level Rise — a national awareness organization investigating the causes, risks and solutions associated with rising oceans — since 1950, Florida’s sea level has risen 8 inches, with an accelerated increase in the recent past. Virgin Keys, off the coast of Miami, is now seeing a 1-inch increase every 3 years; Dr. Jason Evans, interim executive director of Stetson University’s Institute for Water and Environmental Resilience, anticipates that this rate will continue in the future.
“It is very likely that Florida will see at least another 2 feet of sea-level rise by 2100, and much more extreme sea-level rise scenarios of greater than 6 feet by 2100 are at least within the realm of possibility,” Evans told The Florida Free Press.
Florida’s sea level rise is a complex issue that is exacerbated by thermal expansion of water due to an increase in ocean temperatures, melting ice from land-based sources such as glaciers, land subsidence, and a number of oceanographic conditions. Additionally, Evans said, emissions and greenhouse gases — byproducts of human activity — are contributing to higher ocean temperatures.
According to the National Ocean Service of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “The oceans are absorbing more than 90 percent of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity.”
Increasingly warm oceans, NOAA says, will result in a faster rate of rising sea levels. In Florida, where much of the state is at or below sea level, ocean rise is felt even more acutely due to land sinkage — an occurrence which is compounded by excessive groundwater withdrawals.
Experts warn that rapid rates of sea level rise will require substantial and expensive infrastructure changes throughout much of the state.
“Put bluntly, the more carbon emissions that go into the atmosphere, the greater chance we have of seeing catastrophic and irreversible sea-level rise over the next several decades,” Evans said.
In the hopes of mitigating the damages of sea level rise, Evans said, local governments throughout the state are investing in infrastructure advancements. These include road elevation, backflow preventers and large pump installations, as well as some newer codes, calling for higher seawalls to combat flooding.
The cost of infrastructure changes is high, however, and should sea levels rise excessively — even just 6 feet by 2100 — the cost may be too great to justify making the necessary advancements.
“I anticipate we will see more examples of disinvestment within the most vulnerable places and relocation to higher ground as policy-makers and investors become more aware of the astronomically high expenditures that would be required to protect very low-lying areas from tidal flooding,” Evans said.
Beyond infrastructure challenges, sea level rise could also threaten ecosystems that call the Florida coast home, with those that are unable to migrate quickly enough suffering the most harm.
“If certain ecosystems cannot migrate to higher ground due to the high rate of sea-level rise and/or impediments associated with the human-made built environment (e.g., sea walls, concrete roads, buildings, etc.), then those ecosystems may completely disappear as a consequence of sea-level rise,” Evans said.
To avoid such an outcome, Evans believes, Florida must direct its energies to mitigating the potential damage of rising sea levels.
This story is part of an ongoing series investigating water quality issues in the state of Florida.
