Flipside Daily Mover: BTC
A coin per day, making big moves
BTC Surges on Back of Whales
July 3, 2019
BTC FCAS is up 0.79% over the last 30-days. All Fundamentals have increased including a 5-point (0.6%) spike in Developer Behavior, 6-point (0.63%) jump in User Activity, and a 21-point (2.65%) rise in Market Maturity. Price is up 21.05% over the same time period.
A Whale of a Time
Bitcoin surged unexpectedly in the second half of June, capping out at a $13,016 close price on June 26th with trading volumes exceeding $45 billion. The dramatic events left many wondering who or what had caused the price swings, and theories began to mount.
To evaluate these movements ourselves, Flipside dug deep into bitcoin supply in relation to price changes around two primary items: (1) Supply: dramatic shifts of supply in “active” accounts (active in the last 7 days) and (2) Accounts: the total number of accounts that moved this supply.
Basically, if (1) occurs, with minimal change in (2), then price movements can generally be attributed to activity from whales or large exchange addresses. In the case that (2) spikes as well, then this could indicate a broader, more organic influx of asset utilization.
🌶️ Hot Take
Let’s take a look at what happened. As evidenced in the plot below, we can see a dramatic rise in active supply on the 18th of June:
This satisfies criteria (1) above. In regards to criteria (2), based on the 2 months of historical activity displayed in the visual, we found around 5,000 more active accounts per day than expected since 6/18. However, this is actually a rather small proportionate amount when considering that a total of 1,563,749 accounts had been active in the week following the spike in active supply.
Thus, we can see that criteria (2) is not satisfied, as the proportional increase in active supply far exceeds the increase in active account addresses. This leads to the conclusion that the movements in price were precipitated by whales, either active entities moving large amounts of bitcoin or passive investors with deep wallets moving back into the market. It is likely not a coincidence that the large shift occurred on the same day that the Libra whitepaper was released.
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