FPG’s Weekly Perspective on Crypto Markets: China’s $121b cash injection leads the way for crypto markets.
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Market Summary
Global attention has turned towards the east with China leading the way in its record breaking easing efforts since the start of 2023. The recent $121 billion cash injection is the largest one since 2004. What effect this may have in the face of the quantitative tightening and rate hikes implemented by the US Fed remains to be seen.
Last week’s CPI numbers disappointed versus expectations, increasing by more than what markets expected. However the crypto markets reacted in a surprising manner, posting a total market cap breaking past the $1 trillion mark once again. This past week’s move has been largely fueled by a stronger narrative switch to Chinese related projects in the face of record breaking Chinese easing. Crypto twitter has also turned its focus towards chinese crypto influencers as news of Hong Kong officially allowing retail traders to trade crypto by the middle of the year gains momentum. Beijing has also softened its stance of late, going so far as to allow NFTs and leaning slightly towards support for cryptocurrencies.
For this week, watch out for PMI numbers coming out of the US and Europe today and prelim GDP numbers on Friday as an indicator in addition to FOMC meeting minutes coming out tomorrow.
Key unlocks to watch out for this week include:
- 27 Feb: $YGG — $6.1m, representing 1.7% of total supply
- 25 Feb: $IMX — $18.7m, representing 0.9% of total supply
Notable Events and News
Tuesday 21 February
EURO region PMI
US Manufacturing and Services PMI
Wednesday 22 February
US FOMC meeting minutes
G20 meeting
Thursday 23 February
US Prelim GDP
Friday 24 February
US Core PCE Price index
Notable Events and News:
China pumps US$121 billion into economy in the biggest one-day cash injection to spur post-Covid growth
The PBOC offered 835 billion yuan (US$121 billion) of cash via seven-day reverse repurchase contracts on Friday, resulting in an injection of 632 billion yuan on a net basis. That is the largest one-day addition on record in data going back to 2004.
FTX Japan to resume crypto and fiat withdrawals on Feb. 21
FTX Japan, the Japanese subsidiary of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX, will resume crypto and fiat withdrawals from Feb. 21. Withdrawals will be processed via the Liquid Japan web platform, it said in a company statement. FTX acquired Liquid in 2022.
Customers with assets on the exchange will have to confirm their balance. Users without an account on Liquid Japan will need to open one to withdraw their assets, the company added.
Crypto hedge fund Galois Capital shuts after getting caught up in FTX saga
Galois Capital, a crypto hedge fund that had half of its assets trapped on the collapsed crypto exchange FTX, is reportedly shutting down and returning its remaining money to investors. The FT reported Monday that Galois had sold its bankruptcy claims for 16 cents on the dollar.
Blockchain.com Shopping Assets to Fill $270M Hole From Three Arrows Capital: Sources
Blockchain.com, the early Bitcoin wallet provider and exchange that boasted a $14 billion valuation as recently as last March, has been attempting to sell off assets in a scramble for capital.
Decrypt has learned from multiple sources of calls in December and January on which Blockchain.com senior executives have shopped parts of its business, including to Coinbase. Decrypt has also seen a private email setting up one of these calls.
Market Insights
Market Technicals and Blockchain Analysis
The overall market sentiment is slowly creeping up as signs of gloom and doom starts to fade even in an environment of declining macro conditions. However the recent rally that was fueled by BUSD and now fresh chinese money should not be underestimated.
Despite that, if we were to take a step back to look at the bigger picture, the true bull market has yet to start (if there was one). Looking at the chart below, Bitcoin’s bull market typically coincides with an uptrend in the Long Term Holder SOPR. BTC’s long term holder SOPR has yet to trend upwards, as investors are still not realizing Long Term profits for the most part. We interpret this as the market is still in its relatively early stages of forming a bull market structure with a nonzero chance of it still being a bear market relief rally as with previous cycles.
A quick look back at miner’s reserves show that the miners have indeed halted the aggressive selling seen more than a month ago as their BTC reserves have stopped declining.
On a separate note, we decided to take a look at some of the notable transactions on-chain. One such wallet is that of Digits DAO as seen below have been rather busy accumulating various positions in various altcoins with 2 key positions being in $BLUR right after the airdrop and $BONE on the back of the Shibarium launch.
$BLUR and $BONE have both gone up >30% since their accumulation 4 days back.
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Disclaimer:
This communication should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any asset in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change.
