You think you were right... Think Again!
It took me about 30 years to realize this way of arriving at a conclusion. Not that it is absolute truth, but it helps me every day and, I believe, has made me a better person.
I believe it takes 3 things to be right:
- The correct Data
- A well-considered Process
- The right Conclusion
Data
Minimum Necessary Information
Have you ever been sure of something, and then found out you were wrong because you didn’t know an important fact?
There are so many examples of this. You made a bad comment about someone, then you learned it wasn’t the person’s fault. You got a parking ticket because you couldn’t decrypt Montreal’s street signs. You hear about people buying tickets to the wrong place because several cities have the same name. Have you ever visited Paris, Illinois?
When the walk signal is white, do you cross the street without thinking? I hope not!!! Most of us still look to make sure there are no cars, no bicycles. One piece of data, the walk signal, is not enough — you are still looking for more information to be sure you can cross safely.
“Ignorance of the law is no excuse” might just be the best example! It’s your job to know the law before you act. Well, it is also your job to know things before you draw a conclusion.
Mostly, where we wrong is with assumptions. People assume things. Most of the time making assumptions is harmless, but it can lead to disaster. Getting data, true data, is not an easy task. It can start with an assumption but never stop there. Data needs to be verified, checked, corroborated, seen…
Never mistake assumptions for knowledge.
Blind acceptance is another issue we have with data. Have you heard someone said: “But they told me it was ok…”? Don’t trust they, trust yourself.
Best Practices:
- Avoid assumptions, avoid stereotypes, avoid bias…
- Be critical. Don’t just accept the data, be critical about the data
Process
Way to arrive at a conclusion
I was always better at math than other subjects. But there is something that always seemed weird to me in class. During a math exam, if you had the correct reasoning, even with the wrong result, you still get half the points. The same principle applies if you have the right result, but with a small error in the calculus. So long as the logic was there, you still get half the mark.
Thinking back, I can understand why. School is there to teach you how to solve a problem, especially in math classes. Using the correct reasoning should get you a reward. Not all the points, not the perfect mark, but something.
Although I agree with this approach (it rewards the young student for what they know and doesn’t discourage them by getting a 0 for small errors), it also teaches a bad truth. You cannot be completely right if you made mistakes along the way.
How you conclude something is an essential part of thinking. Have you heard of thought process? You can get the data right and arrive at the correct conclusion, but not for the real reason.
Contrary to data, coming from the exterior world, process is all on you. We are talking about your thoughts. Meaning if it’s wrong, it came from you.
Experience is one of the things that can help, and you don’t have to be old to get it, although it does help a little. You have people around you, ask them to share their experience.
The other one is to practice multiple ways of thinking about something. Imagine you are someone else: what would you do in the same situation? Imagine you are in space, at the bottom of the ocean, on the moon and see how you would react. It might sound funny, but starting with an absurd premise will help you thinking outside the box.
Best practices:
- Practice. You never get perfect, but the more scenarios you see, the wider your horizons.
- Consider the simplest thought and the more complicated ones. Don’t limit yourself.
- Think outside the box.
- Ask for advice! People have good ideas. ;)
Conclusion
Actionable thought
You did your due diligence and got your data. You thought carefully, considered the options and asked people questions. And yet, you’re still not right.
This is critical. You can have the information you need and the correct way of seeing it…and still be wrong.
This is the most difficult part because you can only truly know if you were right or wrong after the fact. If you are not sure about the data, you can do some more research or talk to an expert. If you are not sure about the process, you can take some time, sleep on it or share your ideas with others. But once you arrive at a conclusion, you are left with just one more thing to do: act on it.
There are no real ways around that. Every day we have to act, we have to make small or big decisions. But we can be smart about it. We can mitigate the risk of our actions.
For example, if we’re talking about money, we can mitigate risk by not to acting abruptly and not putting everything you have in one place. How many times have you been told to diversify your investment? For a career change, reducing risk could be as simple as waiting one more month to have enough money to start your new adventure, etc.
The idea is to try to keep a thin buffer, an ultimate safety net. It doesn’t have to be enormous. When you cross the street, you double-check what the walk signal is telling you by looking right and left … once. You don’t do it fifteen times.
A buffer is not a doubt. A buffer is the result of us understanding we might be wrong. It is the result of critical evaluation of how we arrived at the conclusion. It’s not doubt — it’s smart, critical, honest thinking about being right.
Best practices:
- Be confident but not blind.
- Keep a buffer. Don’t put all your eggs in the same basket.
It took me about 30 years to define what being right means for myself. I trust the approach and I have seen the results. And yet I can take my own advice… Who knows what my definition will be another 30 years from now?
