Could the Coronavirus outbreak affect Global Food Security?
What we can learn for the future
The novel corona-virus so far has spread to over 150 countries, causing 8,272 deaths and being classified as a global pandemic.
The contagiosity of the illness is quite high compared to other similar viral respiratory diseases; with twice as many active cases in the world today than at this same time last week. Some experts predict that the Coronavirus could eventually affect up to 30% of the world population and big cities have taken drastic control measures like full prohibition of public gatherings and business operations which could have severe economic consequences.
How could this affect food security?
Luckily, there are no indications that the virus can be transmitted via food. The biggest way so far the virus is likely to affect food security is by disrupting global value chains through impacts on both demand and supply.
Supply chains
Already, we’ve seen the images on social media of empty supermarket food aisles and the long queues as people begin to hoard and stock-pile necessities in preparation for the worst. Indeed, most industrial countries are confident in the strength of their food chains and that panic buying in these places may only cause short-term distribution issues. However, if the pandemic persists for a longer term and infects as many people as predicted by some more pessimistic models, there could be major long-term disruptions to global food value chains.
The decision from countries like Germany and India to cut off exports of certain commodities is already causing concern for U.S manufactures about issues with supply chain shortage in the medium term. Also, with more safety checks for people and cargo being enforced at ports, the UK predicts serious delays in it’s usual retail logistics chain if the coronavirus pandemic continues to intensify.
Similar and more potential effects of movement restrictions and human resource shortage should not be overlooked, especially in developing countries with weaker supply chain infrastructure who depend heavily on imports and local open air markets for sustenance.
In Sub-Saharan Africa for example, a major source of food supply is represented by rural/street markets where fresh produce is purchased directly from sellers who may be producers or middlemen; skipping the processing step. So far less than 400 Coronavirus cases have been reported in Africa, yet this is nearly double the number of cases from just the previous week. Some countries like Ghana and Nigeria have banned international flights from certain countries with high incidence Corona virus cases to curtail the spread. However in the case of further spread and resulting movement restrictions, closure of such open air markets would cut millions of people off from access to food. Where one third of people live on less than $2/day with almost no savings, ‘stockpiling’ of basic necessities may be impossible.
Retail supply chains across Sub Saharan Africa aren’t as strong as in Western countries. The closure of factories en masse in Europe may be a problem for the region who rely heavily on food imports from Europe to meet growing demands. At the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in China in February, Chinese manufacturing hit a record low, according to the country’s official measure, driven largely by factory closures, fractured transport links and stagnating port traffic. If this happens in Europe over a long time period, it will eventually pose a strain on the EU and all their export partners; especially those without good supply infrastructure such as Sub-Saharan African countries which may lead to price increases of basic commodities, especially food.
Affecting demand
Food is essential for daily survival. However, in the longer term of a crisis and lowered economic activity, food demand may decrease, albeit artificially.
For example, global pork exporters were concerned about having to decrease exports to China due to port disruptions and apparently falling demand at the heights of the outbreak in February. It only makes sense that as people are going out less, visiting less restaurants and ‘forced’ to limit purchases to only the essentials, and as factories and ports are also operating at less than full capacity, demand for agricultural products may effectively be lower.
The GDP of many African countries is dominated by export of agricultural commodities; with European countries being among the top major export destinations. Agricultural commodity traders in Africa will be following the economic status of China and other industrial countries who are voracious consumers of exports such as cocoa, coffee and nuts.
Local production
In additional, primary production of food may be affected by a pandemic like the Coronavirus in several ways. For example, during the Ebola crisis in West Africa several farmlands were abandoned; the price of cassava, a major staple in Liberia, shot up by 150 per cent and domestic rice prices in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra-Leone increased by over 30 per cent. In 2003, the SARS outbreak triggered food market panics in Chinese cities of Guangdong and Zhejiang.
Production could also be affected by the pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa via restricted access to inputs. At least 80% of the fertilizer — one of the most important agricultural inputs worldwide — used in Sub Saharan Africa is imported. Even after the fertilizer is cleared at the port, it usually changes hands a lot of times before getting to the farmer. These input distribution chains already under serious strain s and will most likely not stand the test of a public health emergency.
Difficulty getting produce to the market due to restricted movement may also pose a problem for local production.
Its also important to note that this is happening concurrently on the heels of veracious locust plagues which have already decimated yields in several East African countries and experts warn may get even worse. Movement and travel restrictions to curtail the coronavirus outbreak may likely prevent timely response to the pest from relevant authorities and the FAO who have been helping fight the problem.
Although most of these scenarios could take months to even pose any real threat, they are feasible food security concerns which should be well considered and prepared for; given the uncertainty around how long the outbreak could last, or how many people could be infected.
Looking to the future
If anything, the Coronavirus has reminded us about several priorities, including the importance of global food systems in public health and crisis situations.
For the future, countries should focus on developing resilient supply chains that are well equipped for distribution during crisis periods — this entails stronger collaboration between producers, traders and retailers.
Better international trade and supply policies should also be put in place for crises periods ensuring the responsibility of food producers to continue providing food and other basic resources to their trade partners in times of crises.
Situations like this also show the need to maintain and strengthen domestic production of staple foods in cases like this by encouraging local producers and processors.
We’ve also witnessed the impact of digital technologies like online food and grocery delivery at times like this. Beyond the current pandemic, this is a good chance to explore the use of digital tools for enabling food security in particularly vulnerable areas of the world.
Lastly, given the current observed lapses, there’s enough incentive to invest in alternative cargo transport and management systems such as automated underground cargo systems; especially for essential commodities like food and medical supplies in big cities.
