Analysing from a statistical perspective: Who’s winning the Premier League and making top 4?

The Premier League is incredible. Whether your team is playing or not, many glue their eyes on the TV to watch the most watched football league in the world. While many have made their bets and have decided whose going to win, there’s also a factor of unpredictability in the Premier League. So let’s analyse the trends of Premier winning teams and who is going to win.

The top 6

The traditional top 6 teams are Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Spurs, and while Leicester did win the Premier League in 2016, many other teams have struggled to break into the top 6 in recent years.

Arsenal

The post-Wenger era under Unai Emery has already began, yet their chances of winning the league or even making top 4 still remain slim. No team in the past 10 years has ever won the Premier League whilst playing Europa League football, with Thursday night football providing to be a huge factor in player fatigue. Last year Arsenal played Europa League football, and once they reached the knockout stages, keeping players fit and getting wins became more and more difficult. While the chance of winning the league seems very slim, the same can be said about making top 4. No team has ever made top 4 while playing Europa League football since the turn of decade, except for Spurs during the 2015/16 season.

Despite only playing one game, Arsenal have yet to figure out how to utilise the wings, something that Manchester City were so efficient in doing

Plus on top of that, Emery and Arsenal have to rebuild the mess that Wenger left. Despite being one of the most successful managers in Premier League history, Wenger left a bunch of deadwood players and a limited budget for Emery to work on to bring in the right players. Not only that, but Emery wants to play a style of football that Wenger hasn’t attempted, and that is playing out of the back. While Wenger continuously emphasised “possession with progression”, Emery is all about keeping the ball on the ground and moving the ball through short passes, attracting the opposition to come press them and than leaving open spaces for the attacking players to run into.

Klopp, Mourinho, Guardiola, and Pochettino all failed to win the Premier League at the first time asking, so it’ll be far from easy for Emery to achieve the unexpected.

How Arsenal can change the way the club is run

Chelsea

Like Arsenal, Chelsea have entered the new season with a new manager and forced with the task of playing Europa League football. With Chelsea already on their 3rd manager in 3 years, Maurizio Sarri is hoping to be at Chelsea in the long term, bringing consistency, trophies, and stability to the football the club. While Chelsea have won the Premier League 2 times in 4 seasons, their chances of winning the league and even reaching top 4 remain slim.

Thursday night football will take physical toll on the team, leading to players becoming fatigue and getting injured. Not only that, but Sarri likes playing high pressing football, which emphasises more physical fitness that any other manager, apart from Klopp. With the emphasis on high pressing and no Champions League football, Chelsea will struggle to win the league, and even make top 4. Despite convincingly beating Huddersfield Town 3–0, Chelsea have yet to have been seriously tested and time will only tell if they’re ready to mount a top 4 or title challenge.

Liverpool

It’s Jürgen Klopp’s 4th season in charge, he’s got the players he wanted, and he’s playing the style of football that the fans want to watch and he wants to play. Everyone adores and loves Liverpool at the moment. From being media darlings to everyone’s team to win the league, Liverpool are THE team everyone is talking about. And it’s not hard to see why. Klopp managed to get the best out of his players, added defensive stability with the likes of Virgil Van Dijk and Fabinho, and reached 2 European finals in 3 seasons. For a manager that’s been criticised for not having a plan “B”, this is pretty impressive.

Having made the Champions League for the 2nd time in a row and adding squad depth by signing Shaqiri, Fabinho, and Keïta, Liverpool seem prepared for the season. And on top of that, all speculations of first day-jitters were rubbished, with the Reds inflicting a heavy 4–0 loss on West Ham United. However, in previous seasons, due to Klopp’s high-pressing system, this could lead to major injuries towards the later stages of the seasons, forcing Liverpool to make some sacrifices. Should they reach far in all the competitions they’re participating in, Liverpool might be forced to give up their title credentials in the hope of pursuing other trophies.

How the media view the top 6 Premier League sides

Manchester City

Most wins, most points, and most goals scored. Manchester City were record-breakers last seasons and with Guardiola having the team he wants and showing no signs of slowing down in their intentions of reclaiming the title, Manchester City look like firm favourites once again. Despite only signing Riyad Mahrez, Pep has spent the summer improving how his teams play against teams that “park the bus”, and also finding new ways to change shape throughout the game.

His obsession with inverted fullbacks was evident against Arsenal. Whenever Benjamin Mendy would tuck into midfield, this would give Kyle Walker the option to go out wide without anyone noticing, leaving Arsenal vulnerable and out of shape. While it’s only been one match, Manchester City still look like the team they were last season, and with the players they have, it’ll be no surprise to see them compete for the title again.

Manchester United

A strong 2nd place finish (highest position ever since Fergie retired), Champions League football for the 2nd year running, but no trophies. The response by everyone to Manchester United’s past season was mixed. While many such as Alan Shearer and Ian Wright credited Mourinho for bringing stability and consistency to the team, the likes of Paul Scholes, Roy Keane, and Chris Sutton criticised Mourinho for his failures to do more, especially considering the money he spent in the summer of 2017.

Mourinho since being appointed as Manchester United manager has always faced heavy criticism for not playing the most attractive brand of football. Instead of attacking a vulnerable Sevilla team at home, they failed to attack with any real bite or intensity. Instead of attacking Manchester City right from the beginning, they only showed their true attacking qualities when they were 2–0. There has been glimpses of the Manchester United that the fans want to see, however, there hasn’t been enough. Should Manchester United seriously challenge again, Mourinho will need to play a system that gets the best out of Paul Pogba, and allowing his attackers to roam forward.

Manchester United did beat Leicester City 2–1 on the opening day of the season, however, the average position maps strongly indicates that Manchester United lack a right winger that can stay out wide, rather than cutting in and overcrowding certain spaces while leaving other players vulnerable. Mourinho would seriously have to get the best out of his attackers should United seriously consider challenging for the title, and with the other top 6 teams strengthening their attack, even repeating 2nd would be tough.

Spurs

Spurs have secured Champions League for the 3rd time in a row, but have yet to have won a single trophy under Mauricio Pochettino. While possessing some of the best players in the league and one of the most balanced teams, Spurs failed to sign anyone during the transfer window. They’re fine with the team they have, but when the games start piling onto each other during the later parts of the season, Spurs will struggle to constantly rotate players and keeping them 100% fit.

Spurs have never won the Premier League, and with the competitions that they’ll be competing in and their squad depth, Spurs might not do so well in the league this season.

What the statisticians say

According to FiveThirtyEight, before the season begun Manchester City were the team most likely to make top 4 and to retain the Premier League title, with a 90% chance of qualification for the Champions League and a 45% chance of winning the league.

Despite finishing 2nd, Manchester United are in fact the team with the lowest chance to make top 4 and to win the league, with a 39% chance of qualification for the Champions League, and a 5% chance of winning the league.

According to the statisticians, here’s where the top 6 teams will finish:

1. Manchester City
2. Liverpool
3. Tottenham
4. Chelsea
5. Arsenal
6. Manchester United

But, as always, there’s been a factor of unpredictably, and things can dramatically change. Before the World Cup, FiveThirtyEight and all the big banks ran many simulations suggesting that Germany, Brazil, and even Spain were joint favourites to win the World Cup, however, all of them failed to even reach the final. Furthermore, they also got their predictions for the past Premier League season wrong. They predicted the following standings:

1. Manchester City
2. Chelsea
3. Manchester United
4. Spurs
5. Arsenal
6. Liverpool

While Manchester City did win the league, FiveThirtyEight failed to get the rest of the standings right, which suggests that there’s too many factors to make an accurate, calculated prediction of who will win the Premier League, and who will finish top 4.

Accounting past data, summer signings, and whose looked the most convincing so far, here are my predictions:

1. Manchester City/Manchester United/Liverpool
2. Manchester City/Manchester United/Liverpool
3. Manchester City/Manchester United/Liverpool
4. Spurs
5. Chelsea
6. Arsenal