How likely is it to score from 45 meters

Regarding the dataset

The data was collected by me from UEFA’s website, specifically from the Post-match timeline (an example). The process is far from refined, so some degree of error is to be expected. In fact, a bored engineer on reddit proved that the goal marked as 45 meters was actually scored at 42 meters, by analyzing the video and the pitch patterns. It is unclear if the error comes from the source or from my calculations, but assume the latter rather than the former.

The dataset consists of all shots marked on UEFA’s website as an event. This introduces a major classification bias in the analysis, but, unfortunately, I don’t believe a more complete dataset is available to the public.

tl;dr: don’t treat this as a scientific study.

Regarding the tools

This analysis was made as a result of a fun exercise in web scraping, statistical modelling, and visualization tools.

The tools used (because python is awesome) were:

  • beautifulsoup (for web scraping)
  • pandas (for data clean up and analysis)
  • statsmodels (for modelling)
  • matplotlib (for visualizations)

All of it was done using Jupyter. If you don’t know about this wonderful tool, check out the website and this gallery of interesting Notebooks.

You can find the code and data for this post at the GitHub repository for Football Crunching.

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