Visualizing passing sequences
An analysis of Premier League season 2015/16
Two weeks ago I posted on Reddit a list of the most common two pass sequences in the Premier League. The post generated a lot of interest, and the discussion was quite interesting. If you haven’t already, check it out below.
This is an expanded post with the answer to the top requests in that thread (tops for specific teams and for sequences of more passes).
But first, a note about the methodology: a sequence consists of two consecutive successful passes without any other event between (that means that dribbles and defensive actions break a sequence — more on that in the future). Crosses and set pieces are not considered passes.
Top 5 Sequences for the Top 5 Teams
1. Leicester City
Daniel Drinkwater is the main distributor, linking with fullbacks Danny Simpson and Christian Fuchs and dangerous man Riyad Mahrez.
2. Arsenal
Ozil, Ozil, Ozil, Ozil and Ozil. He’s the key player for the London team, combining perfectly with Sanchez and Ramsey all over the field — a true free role, resulting in an incredible 19 assists during the season.
3. Spurs
Spurs had a great season, applauded for their workrate, high press and fast attacking style.
Surprisingly, Dele Alli isn’t featured — in fact, no attacking midfielder is featured at all, with most passes occurring inside their own half.
4. Man. City
Manchester City used the wings the most, with Sagna to Navas and back being, by far, the most frequent combination in the PL.
Of particular note is the use of fullbacks, present in all but one play (the rather uninspired center of the pitch Fernandinho-Yaya connection).
5. Man. United
The most common combination for Manchester United would not feature in any of the top 5 of the other best placed teams — a testament to the lack of routines in Van Gaal’s under construction team.
The highlight here is Juan Mata, the only player in this list to rival Ozil in range and frequency of combinations.
The rest
You can check out the top 5 for all PL teams here. Feel free to use the images how you want.
3 Pass Sequences
Ozil is, again, the star, with three sequences in the top four (two with Alexis Sanchez and one with Ramsey). The combinations with Alexis are particularly important — the only ones that get inside the opposition’s box.
We can start to spot some patterns emerging in the plays:
- change of flank (no. 2, 5, 7 and 9): the end position is mostly at the same offensive coordinate as the start, but on the opposite side of the field
- offensive progress (no. 1, 3, 4, 6 and 8): the end position is closer to the opponent goal
This is clearer when we plot the average of each sequence:
Although the change-of-flank style is more obvious than the offensive progress style (which is slower and involves back-passes), we can clearly see both. What is missing is the lateral variability of Ozil’s sequences (1, 3 and 4): they just average out to the middle of the field.
Fast attacking plays are also absent — after all, we’re measuring frequency, not effectiveness, and that style involves fewer passes and more combativeness (therefore less clean sequences), even if it can be more dangerous.
4 Pass Sequences
The first on the list can’t come as a surprise. It also won’t be much of a surprise that the number two is basically the same combination…
At this point, things get a little murky. Numbers start to get really low, showing how difficult it is to keep a clean sequence for too long (hypothesis to be tested: is it worse in the Premier League?).
Next Steps
When I started to make this visualizations, with all sequences from one team on the same image, they looked like baby scribbles. After deconstructing into specific player combinations, we got clear patterns.
The next step is to classify the sequences by their nature instead of the players involved. This will allow us to effectively measure how a team plays.
After that, we will look at outcomes: how a team shoots and scores and how it relates to the build-up.
