Value in 2016 LBs
It’s a factor of fantasy life that in most IDP leagues the key position is line-backer. Not because the position is inherently more important in position than others [you can argue middle LB has been devalued over the last few years] but because defensive statistics are not evenly distributed. And they are unevenly distributed in favour of LBs.
In the 2015 NFL regular season 21,493 tackles were made. 7,499 of those were made by LBs. In fact if you look across the major statistical categories there are similarly uneven distributions in every case.
Now that of course just tells us that LBs are important which is what we all knew anyway. The question we’re all asking at this time of year isn’t “how key are LBs?” it’s “which LB do I draft?”
So I thought I’d have a quick look at how ADP is currently shaking out and pick out a few obvious outliers.
Avoids
Kwon Alexander — TB
Currently #16 LB drafted.
Quick: how many tackles did he have last year? It’s actually just 59 solo and 34 assisted. Everyone seems to think he’s the second coming of Derrick Brooks but he’s really a great example of how easy it is to overpay for a situation in IDP. He was clearly the best player after Lavonte David in Tampa in 2015 but that only really put him ahead of Danny Lansanah. Unless his production gets drastically better [I know he was a rookie but that’s no guarantee] he’s just not going to catch up to expectations.
Myles Jack — JAX
Currently #12 LB drafted
I loved his college tape too but even if he is healthy [no guarantee at this point] he’s still entering a situation where Posluszny and Smith are very ensconced as 3-down LBs. Of course he’s going to take over from Pos at some point but for him to be the LB12 he’d need to immediately gobble up all of his snaps at Mike and I can’t see that happening.
Von Miller — DEN
Currently #29 LB drafted
He’s the reigning Superbowl MVP and the most highly paid defensive player in the history of the NFL. And he’s an IDP bum in 75% of leagues. He’s up at this range because people who don’t understand IDP draft off name value. Anyone reading this article is very unlikely to be in that group anyway but it’s worth noting — don’t be the guy that picks a big-name pass-rusher way too early.
Bargains
Thomas Davis — CAR
Currently #32 LB drafted
Yep — he’s 33 and Shaq Thompson is waiting in the wings to take his spot. But he’s still fantastic [#4 coverage LB in 2015 according to PFF] and his contract makes him a lock for the next 3 seasons. He’s also the perfect partner for Luke Kuechly. Thomas Davis is an elite fantasy LB going one place before a rookie who may never play a snap in the NFL [Jaylon Smith].
Derrick Johnson — KC
Currently #20 LB drafted
Over the last 6 years he’s recorded 116, 4, 107, 124, 131 & 122 tackles. OK that t=year injured wasn’t ideal but nothing else has changed. He’s the leader of a top level NFL defence and never leaves the field [90% of defensive snaps in 2015]. And his competition for snaps is Josh Mauga and Ramik Wilson. For a 33-year old he’s incredibly reliable. If you don’t believe me he’s being drafted alongside DeAndre Levy [missed almost all of last year and has one elite season] and Sean Lee [has missed 33 games over the last 4 seasons].
Vontaze Burfict — CIN
Currently #53 LB drafted
In English parlance he’s a ‘nutter’. He makes bad decisions [see the Bengal’s embarrassing playoff exit in 2015] and his lifestyle seems unpredictable. He’s suspended fopr the foirst 3 games of 2016 and he missed half the season last year. BUT — on the field he’s an elite performer. He had 57 solo tackles in 10 games last year and finished as PFF’s #2 LB vs the run and #11 overall despite the limited action. He even finished with the #16 pass-rushing grade. Getting any player this good at #53 of his position group is daylight robbery. As a comparison the current #53 WR is Will Fuller. The RB#53 is Wendell Smallwood. Take Burfict 3 rounds earlier than you think he’ll go and laugh all the way to the playoffs.
Lawrence Timmons — PIT
Currently #34 LB drafted
OK — he’s not everybody’s cup of tea. He’s not great in the run game and he could barely cover Tom Brady. But Mike Tomlin loves him. He played 95% of defensive snaps in 2015 and the Steelers seem happy for that to continue given they only picked up Tyler Makatevich to compete for snaps. He gets none of Shazier’s buzz but I expect Timmons to be a very sold starter this season.
Brian Cushing — HOU
Currently #51 LB drafted
Cushing plays Mike on an elite defense [3rd in yards, 7th in points in 2015] and is 29 years old. And everyone seems to think he’s about to fade into insignificance. He also managed 110 total tackles in 2015 and the backup for him and Bernardrick McKinney is Akeem Dent. Plus if you draft him you can watch that awesome bit from Hard Knocks again and again. “First of all, you’re not going to block me. Second of all, you don’t want to fight me. Third of all, I’m the man.” What’s not to like?
Dont’a Hightower — NE
Currently #53 LB drafted
I genuinely don’t know why he’s going so late. He’s undeniably a difference-maker at the position. He finished #7 in PFF’s rankings in 2015 with excellent scores in all facets of the game. He plays almost every snap he’s available for and can fill multiple roles [covering TEs and RBs, rushing the passer inside or out]. His tackles aren’t that high in the Patriots system [although he had 5+ tackles in 7 games in 2015] but he makes up for that with a few sacks per year. For the price of the 5th LB on someone’s team his ceiling is enormous.
Josh Bynes — DET
Currently not coming up on MFL’s ADP data.
Currently slated to start at Will for the Lions it’s mystery why no-one’s talking about him. He had 56 solo tackles and 26 assists last year. He finished #13 in PFF’s LB rankings with positive grades in all facets of the game. He’s not a big-play threat but a very solid player who can be picked up on waivers in many leagues.
Summary
LB is one of those positions where everyone is convinced that their personal favourite gamble is absolutely going to pay off and suddenly turn into a top-tier performer. Don’t gamble your season away on ifs and maybes. We know that defensive statistics run through LBs. And we know that certain players at the position are reliable if not sexy. So let your leaguemates draft Blake Martinez and Darron Lee and Myles Jack and De’vondre Campbell whilst you snag old soldiers going ridiculously late and pick up 10–20 points each and every week on them.
