Should Man Utd sign Ivan Toney?
How much must Manchester United fans regret that the club missed out on signing Erling Haaland at the start of the year? Not to mention for a bargain €20 million. While the Bundesliga isn’t as strong as the Premier League, he has taken the step up from Red Bull Salzburg in his stride, ranking as one of the world’s top centre forwards across a range of attacking metrics.
That made me wonder if there are any other young strikers scouts should be tracking as they try to find the next Haaland. So I did a bit of exploring of Wyscout’s database and came up with contenders based on the metrics in the radar graphs scattered throughout this post (measured over the last calendar year). I had to be flexible with the scores because the list of strikers who match Haaland, especially those under 25, is short. Nonetheless, here are a few who caught my eye.
The African
Patson Daka is a 22-year-old from Zambia who, coincidentally, joined Salzburg in 2017. He has built up an impressive record since, scoring at a rate of more than a goal every 2 games, and he has already claimed 6 goals in 5 appearances in the current season. Looking at the data, he outperforms Haaland in several metrics, most notably his expected goals per 90 but also successful attacking actions, shots per 90, dribbles and touches in the box. No wonder Manchester City are among the clubs reportedly interested in signing Daka. Transfermarkt value him at a €20 million, more than double what he was worth before Haaland moved to Dortmund.
The Brazilian
The chances of compiling a list of the world’s top strikers without a South American, and more specifically a Brazilian, are slim. 23-year-old Pedro should be familiar to Italian fans as Fiorentina signed him from Fluminese for €11 million at the start of the 2019/20 season. The move didn’t work out because after making 4 appearances, he headed back to Brazil on loan in January, joining Flamengo. Pedro is obviously happier at home, scoring 10 goals in 17 league appearances this season. He only outperforms Haaland on shots per 90, but his shots on target percentage is the highest on this list (58% vs Haaland’s 62%). Transfermarkt value him at around £11 million, but Pedro’s brief stint at Fiorentina suggests he could be a risky signing for a European club.
The journeyman
As an AFC Wimbledon fan, I had come across Ivan Toney on a couple of occasions, so you can imagine my surprise when his name popped up. Then again, I was also surprised Brentford signed him to replace Ollie Watkins, but he has flourished this season, scoring 13 goals in 15 games. Who am I to question Brentford’s Moneyball approach to recruitment? Not that his career to date would have predicted Toney’s success at the Community Stadium- after breaking through at Northampton in 2012, he joined Newcastle in 2015 but only made 2 appearances, spending 3 seasons on loan at 4 different clubs. However, he found some form for Peterborough in League One, scoring more than a goal every 2 games in his two seasons at the London Road Stadium. Posh earned a decent return on investment on Toney too, buying him for £350k and selling him two years later for £5 million. Of the players on this shortlist, Toney scores at the lower end of most metrics, but I couldn’t leave out a player who I’ve paid to watch.
The wildcard
I managed to come up with one player who outperformed Haaland on most metrics, but there’s a major caveat- the sample size is small, and the data is scarce. Guy Mbenza is a 20-year-old Congolese striker who joined Royal Antwerp in the summer for the princely sum of £630,000. According to Wyscout, he has played 9 games in the calendar year, although he has scored 8 goals, giving him a superior expected goals to Haaland. He only lags Haaland on percentage shots on target, touches in the box per 90, and accelerations per 90. Like Toney, Mbenza might consider himself fortunate to find himself on this list, but for a few hundred grand and at such a young age, he could be worth a punt.
