Issue 003 | Tips for New Users, The Index Flying & Responsible Gambling
Another fornight gone, another crazy couple of weeks on the Index. Simply sensational! Money has been pouring in left,right and centre….and it doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon. As usual, I’m joined by both co-authors, Liam and FI Trader!
Tips for New Users
FI Trader
If I have to pick just one I’ll just go straight for the jugular, how do we know who to buy?
If you bear with me whilst I use a couple of nerd trading terms, I divide this into the macro and the micro.
Macro is the big picture, and where you start. In simple terms on the Index it means observing the trend, i.e what people are buying and what they aren’t, and looking ahead to see what people will probably be buying weeks or months from now.
I’ll mentally set my strategy for the season and the months ahead, and then I’ll buy around that. Right now for example I am chiefly looking at the return of performance scoring and in particular the knock-out stage of European competition when buying (see my New Trader Challenge post from yesterday on my site for more discussion of this).
Most people are currently chasing January transfer targets etc. But I did this in November and December and I’ve probably sold most of them already. In general, I seek to operate “above the fray” and try to position myself where the market is going, rather than following where it goes.
Once I have my macro strategy set, I can think about individual players. If my plan is to target Champions League and Europa League related players in the coming weeks, who is it going to be?
Start with the team, we need dominant, high possession teams who are likely to have a good run in the competition, ideally with a soft fixture coming up.
And then once we have our team, look for the player. Do not focus too much on previous performance scores, focus on what has been happening on the pitch recently. A player who has been scoring well in the past might not do so again because of a tactical change. Likewise, a player who hasn’t come close before can be about to get a monster score. You’ll never see that coming by reading historic performance scores.
Read the performance scoring system and check for players who have been performing high scoring actions frequently and often.
Now, at this stage of the season it will be no secret who the very big names for the Champions League run in are going to be. It will be the Ronaldo’s, the Salah’s and the Messi’s. But perhaps we can find some less obvious targets that might break out in a big game.
Liam
My top tip at the moment is diversification in your portfolio. This is a very common tip but I think its key at the moment. With so many big rises it’s very tempting to throw in the towel on your current strategies and chase the capital appreciation on some of these young players and the likes of Rashford who are yet to really prove themselves as dividend winners. Now I’m not saying don’t buy these players, just don’t go all in chasing, because sentiment can bring a trend down as quickly as it goes up and although I do think this trend may be here for a while yet, I could very easily be wrong. One thing’s for sure though, there’s nothing worse than being the last one on and buying at the peak. It makes it even more sickening if the next trend turns out to be the one you’d been waiting for but now sold. So just take the time to consider before IS-ing your whole portfolio to jump on the latest craze.
FIG
My number one tip is to be completely objective, and not to grow too attached to any players. Don’t fall in love with any of your holds. We’re all guilty of doing it, and it’s difficult to avoid. I tend to avoid buying Arsenal players (as an Arsenal fan) just as it’s almost impossible to stay objective. Remember players that you like or love, don’t always translate to being a good FI hold. Too many times you see people buying a player for 0.50p, holding until £1.50….then holding them down until £1.00. Why? Well a lot of the time it’s the ‘green’ factor that stops people from selling- but sometimes people grow attached to holds they’ve had for a while, and become stubborn when deciding whether or not to sell or hold.
Stubbornness is a massive killer on FI. If you combine that with a lack of objectivity- it’s a recipe for disaster. Remember that your thesis, might not be correct.
Here’s 2 videos I’ve made in the past that are good for people starting out:
→ Top 10 Football Index Tips
Index Flying
FI Trader
Woah. January has been a blast and it’s one of the biggest periods of sustained growth I can recall, all the more remarkable because there has been no bonus to kick things off.
It seems to be new money, and it is clear to me that the marketing push from the Football Index is having the desired effect. If you look at Google Trends it will tell you that the interest in the Football Index has never been higher.
I have thought that the Football Index is capable of breaking through into the mainstream for a long time now, and I think if it going to happen, it should be this year. If it doesn’t, it may remain a cult product.
They are getting a lot of exposure in the right places and I think the product is currently in a good spot, even though it needs some changes and needs to keep evolving. It really is just better than traditional betting in my view.
The refresh of the platform itself, share splits, order books and the incremental rule changes I think are all the right steps and in general, I am happy with the efforts of Adam Cole and co, they may not get everything right but I think they do an excellent job overall.
So will this wave of optimism and growth last forever? Of course not. No market does. Show me someone who says things will only ever go up and up and I will show you a liar.
I think the overall direction is positive and it will continue to grow, but it will also have it’s dips, whether that is overall or in certain players or types of player as trends shift.
I think as the Football Index matures I see the annual returns being closer to the 20–30% a year for a good trader, more aligned to what a good professional might see in normal sports betting. We won’t be getting the 200%+ returns some of us have enjoyed. And of course, not everyone will win. At the moment you would have to do something pretty damn special to end up behind.
I think for new traders particularly, we have to be aware that the easy money will not come forever. Enjoy it whilst it lasts but don’t let easy gains make you complacent and get you into bad trading habits.
Someone who has made money in this market is not necessarily a good trader, so be careful who you listen to. The strong growth papers over many a crack in logic at the moment.
But when the market does mature, we will all need extremely strong trading and analysis skills to succeed. Now is a great time to learn them in what is a pretty forgiving market.
Liam
January has taken off with a bang on the index. I really wasn’t expecting such a big rise across the board this early in the year. There’s an air of positivity and confidence that’s seen new traders jump on board and old ones redepositing, which have both contributed to the amount of money coming onboard. Some of the places that the money has gone and the trends appearing are a little questionable but money in the platform can only be a good thing providing no ones getting horrifically burned.
So just in case you’ve been living under a rock, or you’re nursing an extreme NYE hangover and are yet to see the light of day, here are a few key stats from the crazy hype the index has received since the turn of the year.
- The FOOTIE smashed 50000 by the 6th of January and its now up over 5000 points since then.
- Neymar has continued to raise the ceiling of the index and now sits just below £19.50.
- Astronomical rises on many of the attacking “hyped” Players with Rashford raising over £3.50 in a month to £11.40. Sane, Ousmane Dembele and Vinicius Juniors have followed similar trends.
- Mike B has attracted a lot of attention to the site through his appearance on talk sport with Jim White
- The Football Index IOS App is now the third highest downloaded in the sports section and 18/01/19 saw the highest number of sign-ups ever in a single day!
Lots of positives and lots to build on going into the rest of 2019, onwards and upwards!!
FIG
It’s been an absolutely insane start to 2019 for Football Index. I predicted just over 300k users by the end of 2019…..we’re already at 250k. That’s insane!
They’ve broken records in terms of sign ups per day, per month, per week- whichever way you put it, we’re at the height of user acquisition ever on Football Index.
I can’t give you any accurate stats from an FI standpoint, but I can give you bits of insight into my own content. In the past 7 days, people have consumed over 40,000 minutes of video content on my YouTube channel. I’ve gained 1500 followers in the last 28 days, and in that same time period my tweets have reached 500,000 people. This isn’t a reflection on me or my content necessarily, but more so Football Index as a ‘thing’. The FigCast as well, is on course to do it’s most ever downloads in a month. I thank everyone for consuming this stuff, but again the stats that I’m revealing here are more to emphasise the crazy rise we’ve had in interest, and subsequently the rise we’ve had.
Football Index have done crazy amounts of marketing in recent weeks. TalkSport, YouTube ads, London underground ads….Football Index are quite literally everywhere.
I want to say some words of caution however. Adam Cole once told me that ‘when the economy is up, nobody imagines it going down. When it’s down, nobody imagines it recovering’. At the moment the euphoria, the emotion is running high with all of us because it’s been so green. It’s going to be really interesting to see how traders, especially new ones react to some prolonged losing days. In that moment, remember that saying. Not that many people will be confident in FI being ‘the bookie slayer’ when they’re not making money. So be careful of falling into that trap and not staying objective. It’s really hard to do, but green or red you’re attitude toward the index should be the same.
Gamble Responsibly
FI Trader
Is the Index investing or is it gambling? This is often hotly discussed.
I like to think of it as investing. But I know it isn’t really. Let me explain.
I have a serious chunk of my total wealth in the Football Index. I spend a lot of time on it, so I’m happy to do that. But it is by no means all of my cash, I would never bet the shop on just one thing. I have other investments too and have done for years.
Therefore, I give it every bit as much attention as I do to any other investment (actually, probably more!). I treat it seriously and my end goal is profits. I don’t play for fun, although I do have fun. I don’t buy a player just to add spice to a game either, although if a player I own happens to be in the game I’m watching, all the better.
I think of it as investing because it keeps me disciplined and stops me making stupid decisions.
But let’s not kid ourselves. It’s gambling. Worse, it’s a start up gambling product and like any start up company, it carries risks. That is both the reason we are making so much money as early adopters, and the reason our money is also at risk.
It’s a good job it is gambling too from a tax perspective so let’s not mention investing within earshot of the tax man, yeah?
The golden rule of the Index and any form of aggressive investing or gambling is the same. Never put in more than you can afford to lose. If you may need the money in your account to pay an emergency bill or similar, it shouldn’t be in there.
If a player you own is dropping but you feel he will come good later, how can you accept the drop if you need that money to pay your rent? You can’t, you will be forced to sell before you want to and when you aren’t in control of your decision making, you are going to have a bad time.
Liam
A bit of a strange topic for us to cover really but it seems like its appropriate at moment. With all the excitement and positivity about at the moment plenty of people, myself included have upped their stakes with further deposits which is great. But it’s vital not to kid yourself about where your money is going. Although football Index has revolutionised betting, and it feels a million miles away from putting your money into Bet365, this is still a gambling platform. You are still relying on a company. There is no deposit insurance (apart from on cash balances which I’m guessing isn’t much of anyone’s portfolio right now!). So be wary. If you want to put all your saving into it, that’s your decision and chances are you might boost some of my players too! but be careful and although the index does outperform all current accounts, ISAs, even bloody hedge funds, that is right now and may not last forever!
Another point is I’ve seen people asking about credit card charges for depositing, people applying for loans and other, hopefully jokingly, talking about putting in their pension funds! Let’s just make sure we’re all gambling what we can afford to lose, have fun and keep profiting from this incredible platform in a sustainable way!
FIG
I’ll start by saying that this is not an investment. Football Index is a gambling product, regulated by the gambling regulators in the UK. This is not regulated by the FSCS, the FCA or any other financial regulated body. This is not a savings account, an ISA a pension or anything similar.
It worries me that people are posting comparisons to ISAs. Why? Because you’re buying in to a 3 year old startup. The risk is exponentially bigger, and people need to start thinking about this responsibly. Don’t risk anything you can’t afford to lose. Do not factor in the money on FI as money you own. I’ve also seen people talk about leveraging debt, using credit cards etc. to deposit. Ask yourself, would you do so if the market wasn’t green? Are you giving into FOMO?
A lot of people DMd me recently saying ‘but it’s like stocks and shares right?’. Well yes and no. With stocks and shares, if you’re picking and choosing your stocks you’re probably doing it through a regulated body- whether that be a bank or an alternative app. And better yet, you’re investing in various different companies- not just one, being Football Index. Yes there’s loads of synergies, but I truly urge people to be sensible and responsible.
Research, Resources, Tools & Tips:
- I was joined by Jonathan Johnson on my other podcast: The state of play to talk all about French Football and Ligue 1. If you want to know more about PSG’s FFP situation in particular, or Fekir’s then this is a good listen for you!
Content, Reading & More:
- Ep 62 was with FI CEO Adam Cole, CMO Mike Bohan and Product Lead Ciaran Rowan! I thought I’d plug this just as there may be some new users reading who haven’t done so before!
- Ep 65: I was joined by the infamous Jay Hall on this episode to talk pumping & dumping, youngsters and much more.
- Ep 66: A really good chat with Index Guy. He had some really great things to say throughout this episode, as well as giving some great advice to new users.
- I made this video talking about the best ways to trade during the transfer window.
- Football Index CMO Mike Bohan has been on Talk Sport again. Listen here
- Ryan Baldi has just released a book called ‘The Next Big Thing’ all about youngsters who failed to fulfil their potential.
- Liam Launched a brand new beginners guide over the weekend and it’s not available to download as an Ebook starting today! You can find it here. Hope its helpful for new and existing traders!
Medium is awesome, and we’re seeing far better viewership than the newsletter. It also just looks like a million dollars in comparison! I think it’s here to stay……
Thanks so much for reading everyone!
Have a great couple weeks trading.
