Issue 009 | Summertime Madness!

So the share split has happened! This week, Liam, FI Trader and Buzzing Paul are back in action (albeit a day late, my fault — sorry!).

Before we get into it, I just wanted to thank everyone who’s voted for me so far as the Best Gambling Content Creator at the Football Blogging Awards. It’s a massive honour, as it’s by far the most prestigious Football content awards ceremony out there, so to say I’m chuffed is genuinely underplaying it.

There’s still time to vote though, and if you haven’t done so already and you enjoy the content I put together — you can vote in 3 different ways:

→ Via the Football Blogging Awards website, here
→ On Twitter by clicking here or tweeting the following: ‘I am voting for @FiGuide_ in @TheFBAs as #BestGamblingContentCreator’
→ On Instagram by tagging me, @FootballIndexGuide in this post

On with the blog!

The Announcement, and the Reaction

FI Trader

This was another superbly handled announcement from FI. Like the Share Split, it was managed competently and delivered exactly what the market needed without setting up a pump and then subsequent fall.

It’s not always been this way. Sometimes announcements have had some rough edges. Or some perverse incentives.

The detail I particularly like is the end of the withdrawal restriction on bonuses. In the past, this has led to huge pumps and then a cliff edge “withdrawal day” where suddenly everyone who has overspent can now take funds out.

Or, if people anticipated a bonus they would withdraw early in order to put it back in afterwards. All these things could cause havoc and take the trading focus away from football towards meeting the requirements of artificial mechanics.

The way this bonus has been pieced together shows some really intelligent thinking from FI that is clearly designed to soothe any fears of an end of season sell off.

The bonus is there, but it can be done at a slow burn pace. There is no need to particularly pile in just for that reason. We have until the end of the month to rollover any funds for the bonus. And for Part 2, there is 2 months. So it can become a normal part of trading for a while rather than something to panic over.

Dividends also get a 10% effective bonus for the period since that counts as new money invested too. Nice.

And, because the bonuses are open to new traders joining at any point, nobody will be at a disadvantage.

It’s covering these little details that show sound thinking and I can’t see any clumsy unintended consequences.

The timing is good too. It tides over the right period and by the time the bonus is ending people will be already hyped up for preparing for next season.

Personally, and for the members of my site using my strategy or something similar, the Share Split and Media Bonus announcements could not have gone better. With some early preparation we could pick up the current hot in demand media/transfer players in Feb/early March cheaply to maximise profits, offload any off trend players before they tanked, and avoid the losses at the premium/hype end of the market from the last month.

At the start of the season I started a public New Trader Challenge with a blank portfolio and a £1k balance and having been blogging it since Day 1 of the season. That was at a 138% profit as of last week and will be significantly higher now. It shows that you do not need to follow risky hype picks being pumped on social media or hold 10,000 Neymar’s bought at 12p a share to profit on FI.

Because of the great set up from FI with the Share Split, increased dividends, and now the media bonuses too, I think that all remains true and a new trader entering the market today has every chance of making big profits if they take the time to learn from the right sources, are patient at first, and make more good decisions than bad.

What has not gotten enough attention yet either is the sign off from Adam Cole where he outlined plans to treble the advertising budget for next season. That is so important for a) giving existing traders confidence in the short term and b) bringing in more and more new traders later on for continued long term sustainability and growth.

I seem to have developed a reputation for being level headed and the polar opposite of the “hype men” who big up every trade going. I’m glad about that.

But right now I am genuinely full of optimism for the future of FI and all hype and the echo chamber of FI social media aside, there are real reasons to believe FI could build on an excellent season and do even better next year.

Liam

What a day we had on Monday! Lots of speculation over what would happen and for once we weren’t far off! Football Index definitely didn’t disappoint. The announcement was a real display of willingness to push on and grow the platform. We weren’t in trouble, there was no sea of red, prices hadn’t collapsed and no one was crying out for a bonus to rejuvenate the market but they delivered one anyway! A huge boost for the platform in terms of money injected and confidence levels.

Firstly, the bonus itself is very smart. It offers similar characteristics to a deposit bonus but stops money being pulled out as soon as the bonuses are paid and the a huge dip completely changing the mood. It, in effect, replaces the play through that they’re no longer allowed to make us do because of gambling laws. The seconds 5% bonus will be Enough to stop some withdrawing because they want to get a second bonus, whilst others will take out the cash after April and of course, lots won’t withdraw at all! So we shouldn’t see any pullback and any that occurs will be dispersed over a longer period of time, reducing any effect it may have.

The second part of the announcement centred around an increased media payout. I’m a big fan of this too. Adding an extra place for 4th and 5th (at 1p each) increases the value of a lot more players than if they had kept it at top 3 and increased those payouts. This way round, players who don’t usually get media will slip into the winners spot. Lower profile transfers may also get some payouts but at the same time, the big media presence of the likes of Pogba and Neymar will also benefit from this bonus, picking up dividends on days where big media scores are racked up by the latest transfer rumour (assuming it’s not them!), they will still continue to tick over a few hundred media points daily which will now often be enough to win dividends. I plan to do a bit more research and analysis on this area over the next few weeks but my latest article “breaking down the media” shows just how well these players score over summer and who’s been picking up the most points in 2019.

I think the addition of this will really drive the market over summer now. If you think, 3rd place has just received a relative 50% increase in pay out since the share split, with the same payout now being offered for 4th and 5th the amount being paid out in dividends means that in total we’re now at an equivalent of 26p media pay out a day pre-share split compared to the 15p it actually was. The amount of extra cash being paid out is going to be huge! With the majority of people reinvesting dividends, the platform is definitely going to be pumping!

I think we’ll see a lot more price rises for emerging rumours now too, with a much higher probability of dividends being won. Just think, if a lower priced player in the top 200 (let’s say 80p) grabs a fifth place media dividend on the day a rumour breaks, you’re looking at a 1.25% return immediately, that’s one single day and ignoring any price movements. Pretty attractive if you ask me!

Finally, one thing that almost slipped under the radar is the message from Adam in the email sent out. Football Index is trebling its marketing budget for the 19–20 season! If you consider how successful their marketing was this year with Sky Sports, Talk Sport and all the rest of it, we managed to power through the 300,000 user mark, half a million total sign-ups really isn’t out of the question and I think the fact Adam referred to us current users as “early adopters” really reinstates how big the vision for this product is. Personally, I feel as though I’m more excited than I’ve ever been about what the future of the platform holds.. Onwards and Upwards!

FIG

A few weeks ago I tweeted something along the lines of:

“The period between now, and October 2019 will be the greatest opportunity to profit on Football Index to date”

I still fully endorse and stand by this opinion.

Football Index have been critised prior for, let’s be honest, shambolic communications when it comes to announcements — especially when there’s a lot at stake for many traders.

I was actually speaking to Football Index AS a week or so ago, talking about how there could be potentially two bonuses. I didn’t however, anticipate it in the format that it has been presented. I think it’s really smart, and encourages people to keep money in FI over the summer, which is by all means historically a really volatile time for portfolios. The manner in which this bonus is being delivered, means there’s very little cause for concern when it comes to a correction when bonuses are paid out.

The bonus wasn’t the only thing that was annonced however, 5 places of MB will be on offer over the summer. 5 places. That’s 2.5% of the entirety of the top 200! Amazing stuff. I really do think that, if you play your cards right — you could be looking at absolutely monumental returns over the summer. Monumental. Players In the 25–80p mark falling into those 5 spots pre 2 pm could really rocket, and I’m all for it. It’ll also make it really interesting for new traders. If they’re enticed by the prospects of MB, then PB will surely be the deal sweetener for them when/if they decide to deposit a bit more heavily.

As you guys may have realised by now, I’m massively positive about FI. Heck, I wouldn’t be making content dedicated to it if I wasn’t! But I do like to look at the other side of the coin, and play devil’s advocate…….yes, even to myself.

We ran into that pesky old ‘system overload’ issue when they turn trading off for announcements, then turn it back on. I’m all for the process, but it’s clear there’s some capacity issues on the tech side of things. And remember, this is where we have circa 60–100k active users….what happens when that’s 500k…750k….1 million? I think we can cut them some slack, as the announcement was excellent. However, it’s something they should look to iron out ASAP! The way Betfair exchange is built for example, means they can theoretically handle an unlimited amount of trading volume….something that we can’t quite say about Footballl Index……yet?!

The other thing I’ve thought about is whether or not the top 5 media places could be a thing to maybe stay for the long term? I’ve been a big advocate of watering down media in favour for perfomance buzz, especially in its current form (Localised to UK with no european influence, sentiment score is rather arbitrary and taken from a random 3rd party). However, those of you who are veterans in the FI game — cast your mind back to summer 2017. If you weren’t around then, I’ll give you the TL:DR. Football Index, upped media from single place 5p, to treble media (that we know so well currently!), and at the time it was similarly to this announcement — for the summer. However, FI saw the masses of volumes being traded, and money being deposited so they kept it. Now, with the index becoming one ‘whole’ index rather than at top 200 and a squad at the beggining of the 2019/2020 season — -they could actually be inclined to keep it, especially if it really lubricates the market. This would then, on the flip side however, put more pressure on FI to 1) increase PB again at some point soon-ish, and also 2) to iterate MB as a ‘thing’ thereby including foreign outlets and maybe toying with the sentiment scoring.

I like to look at things from a business standpoint from time to time, and this got me thinking about whether or not FI were worried about money being pulled from the index over the summer. Well, they obviously are — but I was perhaps starting to think that they were less ‘deposit reliant’ in terms of their business model, than they were in yesteryear. Now, I’m unsure. I do think they are however, making a killing on spreads. I’ve voiced my opinion about them beforehand, but I think they’re having a real impact on FI’s P&L, perhaps making them reconsider just how soon order books come into action!

Back to the Future(s)

Hi all, before we jump into it, a quick thanks to the FIG, LM and FI_trader for inviting me on. If you have any feedback for me, I mostly hang out on #footballindex and @IndexGain Slack’s community.

Matchday dividends were first introduced near the start of the 2017/18 season. However, Premier League data matchday data has existed from much earlier. For nostalgic purposes and to (at some point) relive the Sir Alex Ferguson era, I thought it would be interesting to model historical matchday scores.

The Match: Swansea v Leicester Saturday 5th December 2015

The Matches

Southampton v Spurs Wednesday 26th December 2016

Watford v Spurs Sunday 1st January 2017

Spurs v Chelsea Wednesday 4th January 2017

The Report

After a disappointing Champions League exit at the group stage and the poor performance in defeat at Manchester United in early December, Tottenham’s season was at a tipping point.

The Xmas period however was met with two 4–1 away victories, quickly followed by a mercurial 2–0 home display against Spurs, a win that denied Chelsea a record breaking 14th consecutive win.

In particular, Dele Alli endured a quiet start to the season, perhaps in the aftermath of England’s debacle at Euro 2016 — but the 20-year-old fired a turnaround in fortune for Pochettino’s men.

Alli’s headed double against Chelsea at the end of the period made it seven goals his last four games. The third time in succession he has scored twice in a game after doing the same at Southampton and Watford.

Pochettino said before the game that he regarded Alli as “the most important player to emerge in English football in recent years”.

The Star Player

Dele Alli got the highest score in each of the three fixtures. Despite this, his highest score of 195 would only have won Treble Matchday dividends in 10% of treble days this season.

Like Mahrez, when we dig into the data it quickly becomes clear how weighted Alli’s highest score (against Chelsea) was towards the goals he scored.

• 154/195 points were earned for goals scored
• 2 Goals @ 40 = 80
• 1 GWG @ 40 = 40
• 1 Win @ 18 = 18
• 2 Shots @ 3 = 6
• 2 Shots on Target @ 5 = 10
• A further 3 points were earned for 1 Shot Off Target

His defensive output across the period, and in particular against Chelsea gives us some cause for optimism

• 35/195 points were earned for defensive actions
• 5 Tackles @ 3 = 15
• 2 Tackles Won @ 5 = 10
• 1 Fouls @ -5 = -5
• 1 Fouls Won @ 4 = 4
• 1 Yellow Card @ -5 = -5
• 1 Clearance @ 3 = 3
• 1 Offside @ -5 = -5
• 6 Ball Recoveries @ 3 = 18

And, as if to continue the theme from the last blog, his passing output was particularly poor

• 3/195 points were awarded for passes
• 27 Passes @ 1 = 27
• 8 Unsuccessful Passes @ -3 = -24

The Conclusion

The Christmas 2016 period for 20-year-old Englishman Dele Alli would have undoubtedly garnered him much attention on Football Index. However, it appears highly likely that he would not have won matchday dividends during this time. Maybe there is some justification in the price differential between the current crop of young Englishman, time will tell.

Research, Resources, Tools & Tips:

Audio Content:

• FigCast Ep 76: Awesome chat with Andrew Slaven, host of the Totally scottish football show to give you all the lowdown on Scottish Football’s hottest summer transfers!
• FigCast Ep 77: I was joined by both Edge founder Football Index Analysis (Joel) and Oli Price-Bates to talk all about where Football Index could be in 3–5 years!
• State of Play Ep 17 (my other podcast!)- Matt Santangelo and I talk through the ongoing racial abuse that’s prevalent in Football, Roma and their transition, Atletico Madrid and Griezmann and also — we have a Ndombele player profile!

Video Content

• Q&A Episode 3: I discuss whether or not Football Index could one day become mainstream. Will your average acca placer ever use FI exclusively?
• Bank Builder Episode 15:£1000….finally! Worried about your favourite FI YouTube series ending? Well don’t….it’s actually splitting into 2 parts! Check this tweet out for more info
• Episode 24 on Football Index TV, Tom and Joe reacting to the recent announcement!

Articles, Reading & More:

• FI Trader has been blogging a New Trader Challenge since Day 1 of the season. As of last week it was at 138% profit and will by now be much more! See how he got on and the reasons behind every decision, good and bad. Read it here!
• Liam’s written a series of articles based around the summer and transfer targets which could more usful than ever at identifying transfer targets and media winners. You can access here. Check out Relegation Revenue, Expiry Earnings and Breaking down summer media
• This is a bit left-field, but after the conversation on the podcast about twitter being used as a source of MB or a different type of buzz altogether, I found this article an interesting read. It’s about someone who designed an ETF based on an algorithm that draws data from twitter!

Have a great couple weeks trading!