Fútbol, Not Football
Why America Will Win the World Cup in 2022
In order for the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) to win the World Cup, a drastic shift in fan perception is needed. There’s no question that football is the king of sports in America, not fútbol, and that isn’t going to change for some time. American football satiates American sensibilities with its constant action, parity and high scores. Soccer, despite contradicting current American tastes, is on the precipice in the States. We will see its popularity rise, for fans and players, due to a few key factors. The timing of this growth will put the US in position to shock the world in 2022.
The US Youth Soccer Association has kept annual membership statistics since 1974 when there were 103,432 soccer players registered in America. By 1985, that number had grown tenfold to more than 1.2 million. In 2000, the number topped 3 million for the first time and has hovered around that amount since. People who denounce soccer’s rise in America often point to these numbers, which are widely circulated, to prove their point that soccer isn’t popular even though it’s popular. This misses the obvious point, however. An eleven year old youth soccer player is not a consumer, they do not have disposable income and they are not the family’s decision maker.
Those players from 1985 are now in their 30s and 40s and are part of America’s most valuable demographic. The fact that these former youth players have maintained a love of soccer can be seen in the massive growth in television rights deals for soccer in the US. In 2013, NBC Sports paid a record $250 million for a three-year deal to broadcast the English Premier League in the US; the previous three-year deal with Fox was for $80 million. Similarly, ESPN paid $100 million to broadcast the 2010 and 2014 World Cup but lost the bid for 2018 and 2022 to Fox who reportedly paid between $400 and $500 million. Presumably, these media conglomerates would not be paying hundreds of millions of dollars to broadcast soccer games if Americans weren't interested in watching.
In addition to having disposable income which drives television advertising revenue, the once youth soccer player now has children of their own. In 2010, I did a market research study entitled Sports Fan Behavior: Why They Come and How to Keep Them Coming Back. In this study, I asked respondents various questions about their “fandom” in an effort to decide why we become fans of the teams we love. 35% of respondents felt that family tradition shaped their fan preferences, more than current or past success of the team. Now that there are tens of millions of former youth soccer players influencing their own child’s “fandom” there will be a continually growing base of soccer fans in America.
American soccer’s newest generation has two ideals to reconcile, however, before becoming full fledged fútbol aficionados. The first of these is uniquely American: parity. Professional sports in America are built upon the foundation of our participation ribbon society. The four main professional sports leagues in America either have a salary cap or a luxury tax system that penalizes teams for spending more than their competitors. All four leagues also have a revenue sharing policy that spreads the wealth of the biggest teams to the smallest teams. Combined, the systems allow even the smallest market with the smallest budget to compete.
International soccer leagues do not have such policies; in fact they take it one step further with relegation. Foreign soccer leagues, or at least those in countries big enough to sustain multiple levels of professional soccer, maintain a constant flow of teams from the first division to the second and so on. The winners of the second division move to the first while the losers of the first move down to the second. The details vary by country, but the message is clear: if you’re not good enough to compete, we will give somebody else the opportunity. Since there is flux at the bottom of the first division and because there is no cap on spending, the top teams tend to dominate the league. To illustrate this point, look at how many different teams have won a league over the last ten years in America compared to the four biggest European soccer leagues:
NHL: 9 ● NFL: 8 ● MLB: 7 ● NBA: 6
Bundesliga:5 ● Premier League: 4 ● La Liga: 4 ● Serie A: 3
(European: winner of the league, not the domestic cup competition; American: winner of the postseason playoff)
As you can see, there is zero parity in top flight European soccer. For Americans, this is a direct contradiction and takes some getting used to.
A common refrain from non-soccer fans in America is that “soccer is boring.” Generally, this stems from the fact that soccer’s final scores are low compared to American sports. Instead of focusing on soccer’s superlative statistic, the goal, new American fans should focus on the shots, the passes, the tackles and everything else that happens on the pitch during a ninety minute match. Using FourFourTwo’s Stats Zone application, an interested fan can delve deep into the beautiful game’s statistics. The 2014 Champions League final between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, for example, featured 819 passes, 59 tackles, 31 shots, 18 corners and dominating possession for Real. Sure, we didn’t see the game’s second goal until the 92nd minute, but the match was fascinating throughout. Without even realizing it, American fans are already conditioned to these secondary statistics because stats like batting average, strikeouts, passing yards, sacks, plus/minus, rebounds, blocks, etc are all prevalent. Soccer is certainly different but it is far from boring.
It is understandable that soccer has not yet taken hold in America due to its differences with baseball, football, basketball, and to a lesser degree hockey, however that is about to change. A new generation of fans who grew up playing soccer are primed to change soccer’s standing in the US. The change will start with the fans and will trickle down to the players who will ultimately make up America’s starting XI in 2022. Let’s remember that not long ago, our grandparents were having this same conversation and couldn’t imagine a future when baseball was not America’s pastime.
