Autonomous vehicles are almost certainly paired with the overall vision of a bright, gleaming, City of Tomorrow — one where sleek, glass towers adorn the skyline, carefree inhabitants lounge in one of the many public parkways, the streets are spotless and clear, and climate change is seen as an archaic, early 21st century problem that was addressed and dealt with decades ago.
Ironically, although AVs are often part of this utopian vision of the future, in reality, if we’re not careful, they could be an aggressive contributor to traffic and CO₂ emissions. In fact, if autonomous vehicles are not rolled out with the express intention of reducing congestion and the global carbon footprint, they could be the catalyst for a climate catastrophe.
In 2017, Lewis Fulton, a global transport expert at the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis (ITS-Davis), published a report called The Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation. In it, Fulton argues that “the world is on the cusp of three revolutions in transportation” and that “separately or together, these revolutions will fundamentally change urban transportation around the world over the next three decades.”
According to Fulton, these revolutions are: vehicle electrification, automation, and widespread shared mobility. The best (i.e. “greenest”) outcome is when all three revolutions are achieved.
The Three Revolutions in Transportation
The journey to automation began in 2004 with the first DARPA Grand Challenge. Since then, automakers, big name tech companies, global OEMs, startups, and more have dedicated much of their time and resources to the race for AVs (although the technology has proven slower to achieve than analysts initially predicted). Luckily, most endeavors in autonomy use a fully electric or hybrid vehicle. Meaning, that once autonomous vehicles do hit the road, more likely than not, they will all be electric. Thus, achieving two of Fulton’s “Three Revolutions”.
The third of Fulton’s Three Revolutions, the widespread adoption of shared mobility (rides or trips that are shared and paid separately), faces the greatest obstacles. Shared mobility can include public transit services and “pooled” or shared options for ride-hailing services, like Lyft or Uber, sometimes referred to as Transportation Network Companies, or TNCs. And while adoption of the latter has been high, it has come at a cost.
More Miles = More Problems
Ride-hailing serves for many as an attractive option to public transit. However, it ultimately puts more solo riders in vehicles, thus more cars, miles, and pollution on the road. In Fulton’s study, he cites a 2017 analysis of New York City in which the rapid increase in TNC ridership from 2015 to 2016 directly coincided with a decline in bus and metro travel. This same analysis found that TNCs accounted for the addition of 600 million miles of vehicular travel to the city’s roadway network over the course of three years. Even with the introduction of “pooled” options in mid-2015, TNC mileage continued to grow rapidly. Exclusive-ride trips were still the most popular ride requests, and the lure of TNCs were pulling commuters away from other options, such as public transportation. Ultimately, the analysis found that “migration from public transit translates to increased mileage, even if the trips are shared.”
But that’s just TNCs. What about personal AV ownership? Based on UN urban population projections, Fulton predicts that, if autonomous vehicles (or any “vehicle of the future”) are not shared, urban car usage could increase from 750 million vehicles in 2015 (globally) to 2.1 billion by 2050.
And that brings us to another and — at the present — the overarching challenge for shared mobility: COVID-19.
The Coronavirus Affect
The pandemic, and the reality of person-to-person contagion, has already been catastrophic for ride-sharing services and public transit. In mid-March, both Uber and Lyft suspended their shared-ride services (UberPool and Lyft Line, respectively) in order to curtail the spread of the novel coronavirus and to help “flatten the curve.” Meanwhile, public transportation ridership has plummeted in major cities. In the Bay Area alone, public transit has taken a huge hit: BART ridership has dropped roughly 90%, costing the region’s largest transit operator an estimated $57 million per month and forcing the agency to reduce weekday train service to every thirty minutes. In addition, SF Muni is reporting an estimated loss of $1 million a week, with only 17 of 68 bus routes currently operating; in Seattle, Community Transit has reduced its bus services by approximately 30%, with total ridership down by 71%.
It remains to be seen how ingrained the practice of social distancing becomes, but chances are, shared mobility of all forms will take a hit for at least the next 12–18 months, or until a vaccine is developed.
In the short-term, many shared mobility companies are pivoting from transporting people to delivering goods, as demand for at-home and e-commerce services accelerate during self-quarantine. In the medium to long-term, we’ll see TNCs and public transit services elevate cleaning, hygiene and personal protection standards to lure people back to shared mobility.
But while COVID-19 has brought about immeasurable pain and distress, it has revealed what our earth might look like if we drove fewer miles. This map provides a global air quality map that measures the environmental effects of the pandemic, while CityLab points out that air pollution is clearing in Los Angeles (the Los Angeles basin is seeing the longest period of good air quality days since 1995) and bike ridership is up 50% in New York City.
Perhaps the devastation of COVID-19 will lead to a revolution in how people think about our earth and our environment. Perhaps, once the fear resides, people will remember the clean air they breathed and the clear skies they witnessed, making climate change personal. As the industry works to electrify transportation and make vehicles autonomous, perhaps individuals will re-consider telecommuting and ride-sharing for the common good. According to Fulton, if we engage in all three revolutions — electric, autonomous and shared mobility — we can lower vehicle emissions by 50% in 2050. It is up to us, both as citizens and as leaders in the industry, to advocate for and choose greener solutions.
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