It’s 2020. Hello 2030!
A new year and, particularly a new decade, brings optimism for a bright and prosperous future.
The start of 2020 is a good time to for boards and CEOs to ask themselves the question — what will the company look like in 2030?
Be Paranoid and Optimistic
“Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.” Andy Grove, CEO of Intel.
At the start of 2010, ExxonMobil had the largest market cap of an American company at $328bn. By the end of 2019, the company was valued below $300bn while Apple and Microsoft broke through the $1 trillion valuation ceiling.
The next 10 years will be disruptive in many, many ways. We just don’t know where, when and how. Complacency can lull us into the trap of believing that what works now will always work going forward.
A healthy paranoia is not a paralyzing force, it’s the opposite of complacency. It sharpens the mind and keeps us on our toes. It prepares us for what could come next.
When combined with our natural optimism, we see the path for change more clearly and with more confidence as we have examined the worst case scenarios.
“Paranoid optimism combines vigilance and a healthy dose of realistic fear with a positive, forward-looking outlook.” Risto Sillasmaa, Chairman Nokia
Your Company is a Portfolio of Not-Yet Existing, Growth & Mature Businesses
Business follows the S-Curve.
At some point the core engine that is delivering for today will stall, impacted by the macro-economic environment, a competitor and/or a new technology. It’s inevitable.
Ideally the core is replaced by your next, x-times engine, that is already in-market and growing at a rapid rate.
Unfortunately, many companies don’t have that next engine in motion and begin acting only when the core starts to stall.
Then significant management attention and resources are deployed into the tactics to recover/gain the inches rather than address the fundamental shift required. By this point negative cycles of revenue flat lining and margin declines make investments in new initiatives extremely painful.
Knowing where you are requires a paranoid optimist assessment of your current business, the health of your new growth pipeline, and how you are deploying your time and resources.
For any company in 2030, a substantial percentage of their revenue will be from products & services that are either small today or don’t yet exist.
Start Now, And Build Momentum.
“Companies die because they don’t commit themselves. They fritter away their valuable resources while attempting to make a decision. The greatest danger is in standing still.” Andy Grove, CEO of Intel.
No matter where you are in the cycle, now is always the best time to act.
How to start? Start with listening to your customers. What problems are you solving for them? What frictions are you creating for them? What outcomes are they trying to achieve? What new problems/challenges are emerging that could solve?
Armed with what’s possible, companies need to deploy the operating models that drive sustainable growth.
Here insights can be taken from leading, best-performing companies who deploy three distinct operating models, we term them as Start, Grow, and Maximize. More about this in future articles.
We welcome your questions and comments.
Sean O’Toole is a Partner with Forge > Outcomes.
We identify new revenue which we uncover through listening to customers, including products in every life stage — new, growth and maturity.
