Can Norris Challenge for the Title?
Suddenly Red Bull Look Beatable
The last two races have seen quite something. Verstappen was beaten on track by Norris in Miami, and the Dutchman barely stayed ahead in Imola. It speaks volumes of how McLaren have advanced that some feel disappointed after weekends with Norris 1st and 2nd. But is the title race now in play, or is Verstappen still firmly in control?
McLaren Upgrades
Last year, the McLaren started out as an absolute dog of a car before mid-season upgrades thrust it into a regular podium contention. The turnaround was astonishing. In 2024, the team had a better car to start with and recently updated it. Now it looks like the best non-Red Bull and, potentially, better than the reigning champion team’s car.
A note of caution, however. As Aston Martin have proved, upgrades can go wrong and with the budget cap this is more painful now than ever. In addition, we’ve only been at two circuits to date with the upgraded McLaren. It’s possible the package will lose out to Red Bull or Ferrari at other circuits. And those teams won’t be standing still either. As the season unfolds the development race will determine not just how Grands Prix go but also the title.
Ferrari?
There’s a lot of focus on McLaren, particularly Norris, as the last two races both featured the Briton battling with Verstappen for the win. However, it’s worth remembering Sainz won in Australia for the Prancing Horse, leading Leclerc in a 1–2 finish. Right now, the Ferrari team are on 212 points, closer to Red Bull (268) than McLaren are to them (154).
However, recent races have had the Italian team clearly in the papaya shadow of McLaren. Although Piastri got a penalty, on pure qualifying pace both McLarens were ahead of the Ferraris in Imola. And during the race Piastri managed to get ahead of Sainz, while Norris was threatening Verstappen rather than watching his mirrors for Leclerc.
Most of the season, Ferrari have been the second best to Verstappen but if they want to have a chance of a challenge they need to up their game. The upside is that their car does seem to have more development potential, like the McLaren, whereas the Red Bull car might be nearing its ceiling.
Norris the Challenger?
Of those battling for wins there’s a decent case to be made that Norris is going to be the main man. While all four of the Ferrari/McLaren drivers are very good, Norris’ advantage over Piastri is greater than that enjoyed by Leclerc over Sainz. The latter is also driving for his career thanks to being tossed overboard to make room for Hamilton, which may end up making him reluctant to follow team orders to benefit Leclerc down the line (should this happen).
Norris is currently between the two Ferraris (Leclerc is on 113 points, Norris 101, Sainz 93) but has scored heftily in the last couple of races thanks to his maiden triumph and 2nd place in Imola. Last season the McLaren started poorly but became highly competitive, and finished with Leclerc on 206 points, Norris 205, Sainz 200. However, that had a much longer wait until the upgrades came, so I think there’s a good chance that Norris will end up in prime position to take the fight to Verstappen. Ultimately, it will come down to the development race.
Red Bull
The Red Bull was comically dominant in 2023, only losing out to Sainz in Singapore when the car was oddly weak. However, it’s looked very fast but a little shakier in 2024. Verstappen had a rare reliability failure in Australia but might still have lost to Sainz thanks to Ferrari absolutely nailing their setup and Red Bull seeming off the pace (Perez finished 5th and was nearly a minute off the Spaniard).
While Norris was lucky with a cheap pit stop in Miami he then simply drove away from Verstappen and never looked like being caught. And in Imola the Dutchman’s car always looked a bit iffy. There’s also a suggestion that the Red Bull approach, same as last year’s, is close to its upper limit of development. That, coupled with setup sometimes being tricky to get right and a resurgent McLaren, means that while the Red Bull looks very fast it also looks beatable.
Verstappen’s Most Impressive Recent Performance
Such has been Verstappen’s iron grip on F1 over the last few years it can be easy to forget that the top class car has been complemented perfectly by a top class driver. This was in full evidence at Imola. The pole could have easily gone to either McLaren yet Verstappen dragged his Red Bull to claim yet another pole. On a circuit where passing is very hard this was critical.
During the race the pace ebbed and flowed. The Red Bull seemed happier on the medium than the hard tyre. This was somewhat similar for Norris with his hard tyre pace a little pedestrian at first (Leclerc was catching him consistently at one point) before he started taking chunks out of Verstappen’s lead lap after lap. The Dutchman was very much having to work with a car that looked fundamentally slower than Norris’ McLaren at that stage. But he did so. No mistakes were made by Verstappen (Norris briefly got a little ragged which cost him progress during one lap) and he scraped to a hard fought victory less than a second ahead of his friend.
Verstappen’s currently 48 points ahead of Leclerc and 60 points ahead of Norris (54 points ahead of Perez). The season is certainly long enough for such a hefty lead to be overhauled, but unless the McLaren and Ferrari are rapidly developed to gain a clear upper hand, or the Red Bull declines into grid penalties for new parts late in the season, it’s still very much an uphill battle.
When it comes to Constructors, Red Bull are on 268, Ferrari 212, and McLaren 154. This could be rougher for Red Bull, as the lineups of both Ferrari and McLaren are very solid, whereas Perez is often some way behind Verstappen.
Regardless of whether the title ends up being closely contested, it does seem like we’ll get to enjoy more close competition at the sharp end of the grid this season than last. Next up is Monaco, where qualifying is even more critical than in Imola.
Richard
