Reviewing My 2023 Formula 1 Season Predictions
An amateurs review of the season
On February 28, 2023 – three days before FP1 in Bahrain – my dad and I made predictions for the 2023 Formula 1 season.
Instead of just guessing the driver and constructor standings, I developed a set of questions that would uncover the outcomes we were expecting to see.
We wrote our guesses separately and sealed them in envelopes that could not be opened until after the season ended.
I know this is long overdue since the Abu Dhabi GP ended 3 weeks ago but, when the F1 season ends, exam season begins! Now that I finally have time, let’s see how our predictions compare to each other and the truth!
If you like to listen to our conversation, I posted the full recording on Spotify. But if not, this article contains a more detailed analysis and several excerpts from our discussion.
Also, I’m no expert so feel free to critique my responses. I am also encouraging you to share your answer to each prompt. Enjoy!
Table of Contents
· Our Pre-Season Loyalties
· Predicting the Best of the Best
∘ The Best Rookie
∘ The Best Race
· Predicting Improvements and Disappointments
∘ The Most Improved Driver
∘ The Most Improved Team
∘ The Disappointing Driver
∘ The Disappointing Team
· Predicting Pole Sitters and Race Winners
∘ The Unexpected Pole Sitter
∘ The Maiden Winner
∘ The Unexpected Race Winner
· Predicting Seat Changes and Outcomes
∘ The Reserve Driver Turned Driver
∘ The Seat Loser
∘ Schumacher and Ricciardo for 2024?
∘ Haas and The Hulk
∘ Gasly vs. Ocon
∘ Ferrari and Fred
· Constructor and Driver Standings
Our Pre-Season Loyalties
Before getting into our actual season predictions, I thought it would be a fun idea to see if our loyalties would shift over the season. The first question on the sheet was: “Who are your favourite drivers and teams?”
My dad wrote that his favourite drivers were Max Verstappen and George Russell. Considering his tendency to dislike anything associated with Lewis Hamilton, I was quite surprised that he labeled Russell as one of his favourites!
However, when I asked him if he’s sticking with the champ and the Briton in 2024, he said:
DAD: I am sticking with Max Verstappen but I don’t know about George yet.
Although George might lose a fan next season, he will still have me! My favourite drivers going into 2023 were George Russell and Charles Leclerc. While my loyalty will remain with these two, I have added a new driver to my list: Alex Albon.
There were several occasions like Canada and Monza, where Alex was able to extract a whole heap of performance out of that Williams. His talent also bleeds through his Q3 appearances and points finishes which are definitely jumps from last year. Although it’s not exactly fair to compare a rookie to Alex, I still have to mention the fact that he out-qualified his teammate in every single race. I anticipate that my cheers for the Thai guy will carry on into 2024.
As for team loyalties, I knew that my dad’s favourite team was Red Bull but I was shocked when he said: “…and Ferrari.”
ENA: Ferrari?! I didn’t know you liked Ferrari?!
DAD: Ya! I was always a Ferrari fan. Always. From the days of Kimi Raikkonen, Sebastian Vettel — not when Michael Schumacher was driving. I hated them.
Knowing that my dad was not a fan of Ferrari during the Schumi days, I assumed his dislike for the team was eternal. But, I was wrong. He says he is sticking to Red Bull and Ferrari for ‘24.
I also cheer for Ferrari. But, unlike my Lewis-Hamilton-hating father, I cheer for Mercedes as well. My support for a driver tends to extend to the team they drive for so, with Alex on my team, I became a Williams fan.
Over the season, I fell in love with James Vowels and I think I speak for a lot of people when I say that he is one hell of a team principle. All this to say, I can’t wait to see how the team progresses after a pretty pivotal season.
Predicting the Best of the Best
The Best Rookie
With three rookies joining the 2023 grid, we needed to predict who would come out on top.
DAD: De Vries.
ENA: I said, “In terms of points, Oscar.” But, in terms of performance, I also said De Vries which… is so sad, isn’t it?
DAD: Ya I know, but it’s life. The car sucks but he just wasn’t able to push the car to its limit or overdrive it and get more out of it. Yuki Tsunoda was able to get more out of it. But that’s Formula 1, what are you going to do?
After his monumental debut in Monza last year, I think everyone was expecting a whole lot more from Nyck De Vries — maybe even too much. Unfortunately, he was only granted ten races. But, if anyone is going to sack a driver mid-season, it’s going to be Red Bull.
ENA: I think he also just didn’t have enough time and I think that had to do with his age and also because he had so much racing experience. So, I feel like there was a lot of pressure on him. Even though he was a rookie, he wasn’t really treated like a rookie. Because you have Logan Sargeant who gets another season but —
DAD: I know and he did squat!… It’s sad! It’s a new form of racing to adapt to because of the speed, the power, and all this stuff with the car… and the most important thing is the pressure to perform.
Although I thought Nyck would be the best rookie, I did say Oscar Piastri would end the season with the most points… so, I was kind of right! I didn’t really have any expectations for Oscar when the season began but, I certainly didn’t expect podiums or a sprint win.
The fact that he was able to keep up with a talented driver like Lando Norris in his first season in F1 is insane. I’ve heard many people say they haven’t seen a promising rookie like Oscar in a while so, I am excited to see how he grows in 2024.
The Best Race
Carrying on with the theme of the best, my dad and I discussed which of the 22 races we thought would not disappoint.
I predicted that the best race would be the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Off the top of my head, the only thing I remember from that GP was Charles Leclerc crashing in SQ3 but managing to secure pole for both the sprint and the race.
Oh, and how could I forget when Max confronted “Princess George” for damaging his side pod! As entertaining as that post-race exchange was, Baku was quite a bore.
When I asked my dad what race he expected to be the best, he said:
DAD: My favourite race and the race that is always the best: Monza.
ENA: Would you say that was the best race?
DAD: Of course!
ENA: MONZA?!
DAD: Because it’s the fastest track on the calendar! And that’s where you get all the top speed and everything — no matter what they say about the other races. Ya, other races could be exciting because it’s more fierce at the front, but Max didn’t run away with the win in Monza… I will probably be biased towards Monza but Monza is the track.
ENA: See, the fact that I don’t even remember Monza shows how it was not the best.
At the time of our discussion, I honestly could not recall anything that happened in Monza! But, later that night I managed to regain some of the highlights. I remembered that Carlos Sainz started on pole and that he had hard-fought and extremely tight battles with Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez, and Charles Leclerc. And then I remembered the heart attack I nearly suffered in the last lap when Charles had a huge lock-up into Turn 1 whilst battling his teammate for P3.
I realize now that Monza was actually a really good race but, was it the best?
ENA: I feel like the best race was probably Singapore… but, it was not my favourite race because I am a George Russell fan… that race was painful!
Even though Singapore was traumatizing for me, it was what everybody and their mothers were waiting for! I don’t even have to think hard about Singapore to remember the details of that race and I don’t think you do either. An unforgettable race like that has to be the best.
But let me know what you think!
Predicting Improvements and Disappointments
Since my father was adamant that Monza reigned supreme, we moved on and discussed the improvements and disappointments we anticipated.
The Most Improved Driver
The first question was, “Which driver do you think will improve the most over the season?”
DAD: I picked Checo… but we know how that went!
ENA: I picked Zhou Guanyu but…
DAD: Again, it’s the car. The car sucks!
Oh, Checo… I don’t even know what to say. My dad went into the season thinking Checo at least had a shot at the championship but, even though he finished P2 in the standings, he was far from championship-winning form.
I, on the other hand, thought more could come from Zhou Guanyu. His rookie season was riddled with bad luck so, I thought maybe his sophomore season would be better. I forgot to consider the fact that he drives for Alfa Romeo when I made my choice so it was another anti-climatic season for the Chinese driver.
So, who actually improved the most?
I feel like it’s hard to quantify improvement because there are so many factors to consider. I know you can look at the points and standings and compare them to last year, but the numbers don’t tell the whole story. So instead, let’s talk about who impressed. I already said my praises for Alex Albon and Oscar Piastri so, besides them, the drivers that “wowed” me were Fernando Alonso, Lando Norris, and Carlos Sainz.
Fernando improved the most from last year in terms of points thanks to better machinery, but the way he drove that car was an art. He is obviously the most experienced driver on the grid but, the fact that he is still performing at his best at 42 years of age is nothing shy of incredible!
And when you look at all his front-row starts, podiums, and points and see that his much younger teammate was unable to achieve like results, it really puts into perspective how talented Fernando is. But I’m sure you already know that.
Lando also qualified on the front row and stood on the podium several times this season which was unexpected given McLaren’s poor start to the year. Now, I don’t know if this makes sense but, like Fernando, Lando is one of the drivers who you don’t need to see on a podium to know they are talented.
While his achievements this season should not go unnoticed, it was how he raced that had a massive impact on me. In fact, his performance in Silverstone “wowed” me so much that I forced my best friend to watch the replay of his defence against Lewis Hamilton.
His drive in Mexico was also nothing short of brilliance and I was left in awe at such skill and cojones! Overall, I think 2023 was an amazing season for little Lando Norris.
Even though I am a fan of his teammate, Carlos Sainz was another driver who really impressed me. While Charles was having an unlucky start to the season, Carlos showed his consistency.
He also showed his masterclass in Monza and, of course, Singapore, which were drives that quite literally altered my brain chemistry. Although he lucked out in Abu Dhabi and missed out on a potential P4 finish in the standings, he is still a driver who stood out this season.
You might be thinking: “How can this girl talk about impressive drivers and not mention the multiple record-breaker and three-time world champion, Max Verstappen?!” Yes, Max is impressive — beyond impressive I should say — but, his achievements this season were not surprising which I mean as a compliment!
It became abundantly clear after last season and early on into 2023 that the Dutchman was going to make an even bigger name for himself. Regardless of what was expected, I still have to acknowledge his nearly flawless season.
The Most Improved Team
We discussed improved and impressive drivers, so let’s talk teams. My dad and I both thought Aston Martin would be the most improved team because of their performance in testing. While they started the season on a really big high, they got their development packages wrong which led to a decline in performance. Although they certainly improved from last year by finishing P5 in the standings with points in the triple digits, I think more was expected throughout the season.
Besides Red Bull who managed to improve on an already spectacular 2022 season (👏 👏👏), McLaren managed to turn their entire season around! Unlike Aston, McLaren was able to bring in new upgrades that significantly catapulted the team forward. In terms of points, they also improved the most from 2022.
I also have to mention Williams again for giving us a taste of what I hope is more to come. And although, it wasn’t a smooth sailing season for the team, props to them for finishing P7 from last year’s P10.
The Disappointing Driver
I probably should’ve started with the disappointments first to end on a high note but alas, here we are. I asked my dad which driver he thought would be the biggest disappointment and he asked me to guess.
DAD: Who do you think I put down?
I paused for a moment and then it hit me.
ENA: Oh my god, Lewis?
DAD: Of course! He’s the big disappointment — so too is Checo.
ENA: But [Lewis] finished —
DAD: It does not matter! He’s an idiot!
My dad’s hatred for Lewis Hamilton is seriously getting out of hand. Just because he’s an “idiot” that somehow makes him a disappointment 🥴. Anyway, I disagree. He was consistent and I can’t think of a time other than Silverstone and Monza where he made questionable moves. If my dad wants to target a Mercedes driver, it should be George Russell.
I predicted Lance Stroll would be a disappointment and though he didn’t exactly draw positive attention to himself, my dad’s response was quite insightful.
DAD: You see, I wouldn’t put a driver like him as a disappointment because he is a disappointment from day one! Sargeant is a disappointment. You know what I mean? The guys like those. But top guys… those are who you are gonna look towards to see who is the worst out of them — and Lewis Hamilton is the worst!
And again with the Lewis slander 🤦♀️. Although what he said about Lance and Logan was kind of harsh, he made a good point. Disappointment comes from those who you expect more from and Lance wasn’t exactly someone I expected more from.
I looked back on the season to see which of the top guys let me down and while Checo does take the cake, I would say George was a bit of a letdown considering his stellar and consistent 2022 season.
The Disappointing Team
Now on to the constructor we thought would disappoint.
DAD: Ferrari!
ENA: I said McLaren because I based these on pre-season testing and they were just not in it! But, Ferrari… they are always a disappointment. So, do you stand by your prediction of Ferrari being the biggest disappointment?
DAD: Of course they are! Because they are Formula 1, they are the FIA, they are the World Motor Sports Counsel — they are everything! Without Ferrari, there’s no Formula 1.
ENA: So, you just hold them to a higher standard because of their history?
DAD: Of course! They are the prancing horse but right now, they are the prancing donkey!
ENA: And they have been that way for a really long time!
My dad makes a good point once again. Inherently, Ferrari does have the most pressure to be the best — especially after the season they just had. Despite the reliability issues, strategy errors, and insufficient upgrades, 2022 was a major season for them because they were (at one point) contenders in both championships.
Understandably, more was expected given what they were able to achieve after so many years but, they let the Tifosi down every single year. So, should we really be surprised? Maybe it’s time to lower our standards for Ferrari. Maybe then they will become champions 😭.
I would say Aston disappointed me the most. They looked so promising in the early part of the season and were confident that performance would only get better. But, it just never happened in the way they promised.
Predicting Pole Sitters and Race Winners
The Unexpected Pole Sitter
During the 2022 season, we saw George Russell, Carlos Sainz, and Kevin Magnussen take their first pole positions in F1. I wondered if we would see an unexpected or nontypical driver on pole again this season.
Anticipating RB dominance, I predicted that we wouldn’t see anyone out of the ordinary on the front grid spot. My dad, however, predicted that Lando would and he did get pole in São Paulo. Granted, it was a sprint pole so I’ll let you decide if that counts.
If we are strictly talking about Sunday races, besides the Bulls and the Raris, the only other pole taker was Lewis Hamilton. It feels wrong to say that a pole from Lewis is unexpected or nontypical since he has 104 poles under his belt but, we haven’t exactly seen him take the front grid spot regularly since 2021. So again, I’ll leave it to you.
The Maiden Winner
George Russell and Carlos Sainz also got their maiden wins in 2022. I asked my dad if, in his predictions, he thought a driver would win their first race this season and he said yes. Unsurprisingly, he guessed: Lando.
ENA: I said no and then in brackets, I put, “Sorry Lando.” And I was right, so at least I got one thing right so far!
The Unexpected Race Winner
Carrying on with the theme of race wins, when asked if he thought there would be an unexpected or nontypical race winner my dad again, said Lando. Even though I didn’t pick Lando for any of these predictions, trust me, I do root for him. A win is due!
ENA: I put Fernando and then I said, “If not, at least a podium,” and I was technically right.
Neither of our predictions came true but, we did get an unexpected race winner: Carlos Sainz. With Red Bull winning 15 consecutive races, it seemed like no one was going to stop them. But, with Singapore once again being Verstappen’s Achilles heel, the Spaniard got the win. Everybody say, “Thank you, Carlos!”
ENA: I guess you could count Oscar Piastri. He won a sprint race so he’s definitely an unexpected driver.
DAD: Ya but sprints don’t count. Sprints are entertainment even though they get points.
ENA: I know but it’s still a win!
Predicting Seat Changes and Outcomes
We finally talked about all things race seats.
The Reserve Driver Turned Driver
I asked my dad if he thought a reserve pilot would get a drive this season.
DAD: Yes, I said Mick Schumacher.
ENA: Oh, I said Felipe Drugovich because I thought Lance wouldn’t race with his broken hand but… Daniel got to drive… Liam Lawson too! So all the Red Bull reserves got a drive and that was quite unexpected.
I never asked my dad why he thought Mick would get a drive but, as I write this story, I can think of one reason. Remember how my dad hates Lewis Hamilton? I think he was hoping that something would happen to Lewis and Mick would have to take his seat! I know how bad that sounds but, my dad never wishes death upon Lewis or anything malice like that, he just wants him out!
The Seat Loser
We then discussed if we thought anyone would lose their seat for 2024.
DAD: I said Yuki Tsunoda and Drugovich to replace him.
ENA: I said Yuki too! But I said Liam Lawson to replace him and I mean I wasn’t far off…
While we were right in targeting Alpha Tauri, we guessed the wrong teammate. Alpha Tauri saw a lot of changes this season with their line-up and their now-retired team boss so, shoutout to Yuki for being the only consistent “thing” at Alpha Tauri this season!
Schumacher and Ricciardo for 2024?
On the predictions document, I made a question that asked whether we were expecting Mick Schumacher and Daniel Ricciardo to make a comeback in 2024. My dad predicted that they would both get a seat for ‘24 while I went a different route. In my predictions, I said no to Mick because I just couldn’t see where it would happen but, with Daniel, I went conditional.
ENA: I said that I can see them breaking Checo’s contract if Max wins the title and [Checo] finishes P4, otherwise no. So, yes and no.
My dad was right about Daniel but I was right about Mick.
Haas and The Hulk
Speaking of Mick, on the form, I included a question about his replacement: “Did Haas make the right decision in signing Nico Hulkenberg?”
DAD: Big no. Because he is old and washed up. He is only good at the start, he can’t finish, and he might be good in the rain for a little bit but that’s it. He’s not consistent!
ENA: I said, “For right now, yes,” because I think their priority was to have someone who wouldn’t crash all the time, so I think in that sense it was the right decision.
DAD: Ya it was the right decision because he is just as slow as the damn car!
ENA: They had some pretty good qualifyings, though.
DAD: Well, that’s what I said! They are good at the start but can’t finish.
ENA: I know, I know, but… I think it was the right decision for now.
I said “for now” because of his age and because eventually, Haas is going to have to invest in younger talent. Even though Haas didn’t have the best of seasons, they definitely saved in crash damages. Mick was the costliest driver last year but, this season, the Haas drivers were not even in the top ten of the destructor’s championship. So, that’s a win in my book!
Gasly vs. Ocon
Another driver line-up that I believe warranted a question was Alpine’s. On the document, I asked: “Will Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon get along or bump heads?”
My dad said he expected them to bump heads which ended up being true. I also thought the same and on the document, I specifically wrote:
With their personal history coupled with Esteban’s history with his teammates, it seems inevitable that there will be some kind of conflict.
All teammates clash at some point and in varying degrees, but was 2023 detrimental to their future as teammates? I guess time will tell. All I know is that Piastri definitely dodged a bullet and that bullet was Ocon!
Ferrari and Fred
The final question in the section was not seat-related but it was still about a personnel change at a team. With Ferrari being the clown jewel — I mean crown jewel of this sport, any change whether driver-related or team boss-related is a big deal.
So, with Mattia Binotto out and Fred Vasseur in, it was imperative to predict if we would see substantial change at Ferrari or witness the same old story. My dad didn’t think Fred was going to “fix” Ferrari this season but, I was more optimistic in my prediction.
ENA: I said, “Yes, I think he can make Ferrari consistent with their strategies and reliability.” DE-LU-SION-AL! I am delusional.
As Ferrari fans, why do we even bother believing anymore 🥲?
Now, I know I just admitted that I am delusional but, I want to give Fred the benefit of the doubt here. This was his first season with the Maranello team so, we can’t expect perfection right from the get-go. But, if 2024 isn’t any better, I cannot let myself be pulled into the whole “next year will be our year” narrative! I refuse 😂!
Constructor and Driver Standings
I’m sorry to say that my deluded Ferrari behaviour does not end with believing in Fred Vasseur. In my constructors’ predictions, guess who I put as champion?
You guessed it, I predicted Ferrari.
I didn’t actually believe they could win but I was hoping that by writing it down, the universe or supernatural forces would make it come true 😂! I can’t help but laugh at such stupid logic! I think this rationality is worse than actually believing in Ferrari!
You probably think I picked Charles for the drivers champion too, huh? Ya, well I thought I did too but I was surprised to read that I didn’t. I picked Max.
ENA: I put Max for WDC. I thought I put Charles and I am disappointed that I didn’t. I would have loved to have it on paper that I at least believed in Charles but… I guess not!
Unlike me, my dad’s prediction was based on sound logic. He went with Red Bull and Max Verstappen. But don’t go on thinking that my dad isn’t a delusional person because guess where he placed Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes in the standings.
Plum. Last.
Realistically, was Lewis going to finish P20 in the standings? Absolutely not. Was Mercedes en route to finish 10th in the constructor standings? Hell no! But as I’ve implied a million times, my dad’s judgement clouds whenever Lewis Hamilton is brought up!
Now, I won’t go into our standings predictions but you will find a scanned copy of our choices below.
If you compare our predictions to the actual driver standings, you will find that I guessed P1 and P16 correctly while my dad was successful with P1, P2, and P10.
As for the constructors, I didn’t get a single one right whereas my dad got the champion right. If my dad put Mercedes in a realistic position, he would have been SO close to predicting correctly 🤦♀️🙄.
All in all, I had a lot of fun making these predictions and reflecting on them. I hope you are encouraged to do the same next season. I also hope you took the opportunity to discuss your own opinions in the comments. I’m sure I forgot to mention or consider some things so, I would love to hear your perspective below.
To close, here is a final note from my dad:
“I’ll tell you right now, going into the 2024 season, I’m backing Max Verstappen to be champion in the waiting — four times in a row. Red Bull will be constructor champion again — three years in a row. And Lewis Hamilton will be win-less once again. And George Russell, I’m predicting right now — you heard it here — coming to the fore and finishing second in the driver’s championship for Mercedes.”
To that I say, Forza Charles (I’m still delusional)…
